The Uses and Limits of US Leverage in Fragile States
Speaker(s): Campbell, J. (RAND); Martini, J. (RAND); Toukan, M. (RAND); Watts, S. (RAND)
Date: 27 August 2021
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Stephen Watts (RAND), Mr. Jeffrey Martini (RAND), Mr. Jason H. Campbell (RAND), Dr. Mark Toukan (RAND) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
The research team from RAND examined several cases of political stabilization in countries following civil war to predict the likelihood of whether a state will return to violence after peace in the future. Dr. Watts stated that most countries do not stay at peace after a civil war ends. Instead, most countries go back to at least a low level of conflict but not war. The team examined several deep dives into influence episodes—or instances when the US leveraged local partners to change their own policies. The process for these influence episodes includes interest alignment, influence strategy, conditions, and outcomes. Mr. Martini emphasized that not all aspects of influence operations were present in any case study. However, the US has had strong short-term success when its interests align with its local partners.
Political inclusion, durability of peace, conflict-era intervention, development assistance, and arms transfers were identified as effective tools for intervention. Dr. Toukan commented that the global geopolitical context during the conflict is important to the durability of peace. For example, during the Cold War, pro-government intervention was less likely to be politically inclusive than modern interventions. Political inclusivity is one aspect of interventions, however, differences between Cold War Era interventions and modern interventions were consistent. Dr. Watts concluded the team’s presentation by emphasizing that achieving the long-term stability of these countries will be challenging but it is achievable. Recommendations for policy changes by the US are: a) calibrate expectations, b) prioritize inclusion, c) focus leverage, d) communicate clearly, e) monitor performances, and f) conduct analysis to understand available tools for leverage.
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Stephen Watts
Associate Program Director, Arroyo Center, Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program; Senior Political Scientist
Washington Office
Education
Ph.D.in government, Cornell University; M.A. in European Studies, Georgetown University; B.A. in government, College of William and Mary
Stephen Watts is a senior political scientist and associate program director for the Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program at the RAND Corporation. His research has focused on great power competition, security sector assistance, irregular warfare, coalition diplomacy, and long-term conflict trends. He is the lead author of over a dozen RAND studies and has published articles in such journals as The Washington Quarterly, Parameters, and Joint Force Quarterly. Prior to beginning his doctoral studies, Watts served as a foreign affairs officer in the State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, where he was twice awarded a Superior Honor Award for his work. He has held short-term assignments at the State Department's Office of Policy Planning, U.S. Embassy Sarajevo, and Combined Forces Special Operations Component Command–Afghanistan. Watts received his Ph.D. in government from Cornell University, where he was awarded the Esman Prize for best dissertation in government, and has held research fellowships at Harvard University's Belfer Center and the Brookings Institution.
Jeffrey Martini
Senior Middle East Researcher
Washington Office
Education
M.A.in Arabic studies, Georgetown University; B.A. in economics, Middlebury College
Jeffrey Martini is a senior Middle East researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he works on political and security issues in the Arab World. Martini also spent a year as the North Africa lead at the State Department's Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations. He has published on Arab Gulf security, Syria stabilization, civil-military relations in Egypt, and generational divides within the Muslim Brotherhood. Martini spent four years living in the Arab world, including three as a Peace Corps volunteer in Morocco and one in Cairo, Egypt, where he was a2007–08 fellow in the CASA Arabic language program. He speaks, reads, and writes modern standard Arabic and speaks Moroccan and Egyptian colloquial. Martini received his B.A. in political science and economics from Middlebury College and his M.A. in Arabic studies from Georgetown University.
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