Measuring Success: Reconsidering the Use of Data for Evaluating Military Operations and Strategy

Speaker(s):

Barnett S. Koven

Date of Event:

April 11, 2018

Associated SMA Project

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Measuring Success: Reconsidering the Use of Data for Evaluating Military Operations and Strategy

Speaker: Koven, B. (University of Maryland START)

Date: 11 April 2018

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Barnett Koven (University of Maryland START) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Koven began the session by presenting some of the problems evident in data analyses. He argued that removing erroneous data is difficult, automated analyses are still devoid of theory and human-like cognition, and we often apply the wrong theory when performing data analyses. Dr. Koven proceeded to explore this last problem further. He spoke about the Loss-Exchange Ratio (LER) and how it often generates misleading results. He also discussed an instance in which applying the “correct” theory can give you a better understanding of data. He used post-ISAF Afghanistan as an example and applied the rationale presented by Stathis Kalyvas in his book The Logic of Violence in Civil Wars. Dr. Koven noted that competing theories should be evaluated and considered when looking at data. Finally, he presented a few possible extensions of his research, including creating a predictive attack model to predict the timing and/or the location of violence during Taliban GIRoA negotiations.

Dr. Koven’s relevant 2017 Small Wars Journal article entitled “The End of Afghanistan’s Spring Fighting Seasons and the Demise of the Afghan National Security Forces?” can be found at: http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-end-of-afghanistan%E2%80%99s-spring-fighting-seasons-and-the-demise-of-the-afghan-national-secu

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Barnett S. Koven is a Senior Researcher and the Political Instability Portfolio Lead at theUniversity of Maryland’s (UMD) National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism andResponses to Terrorism (START), a U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Center ofExcellence. He is also a Fellow at the Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy at FloridaInternational University, a Professorial Lecturer in Political Science & International Affairs atthe George Washington University (GWU), an Associate Member of the Graduate Faculty at theUMD, an Adjunct Presenter at the U.S. Air Force Special Operations School and a QuantitativeSocial Scientist at Performance Systems, LLC. Koven received his Ph.D., M.Phil. and M.A. inPolitical Science, as well as a B.A. in International Affairs and Latin American and HemisphericStudies from the GWU. He also holds a Certificate in Conflict Analysis from the United StatesInstitute of Peace and a Certificate in Advanced Security in the Field from the United NationsSystem Staff College.

Koven has conducted extensive overseas research in conflict and post-conflict zones. His workemploys cutting-edge quantitative and qualitative methods to answer pressing defense andhomeland security questions. Specifically, he focuses on issues pertaining to counterinsurgency,counterterrorism, countering violent extremism, counter-narcotics, gray zone conflict, securitycooperation, organized criminal violence, weapons availability and conflict onset, post-conflictreconstruction, and the material and non-material sources of military power. Koven has receivedresearch funding from the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), the DHS and the NationalNuclear Security Administration, as well as from the Horowitz Foundation for Social Policy andthe GWU. A complete list of journal articles, book chapters and policy publications can be foundon his personal website: barnettkoven.weebly.com.

In addition to his aforementioned academic affiliations, Koven regularly instructs Combating Terrorism Seminars at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Charleston, SC. He hasalso lectured during Joint Special Operations University’s Special Operations Forces Interagency Collaboration Course. Moreover, Koven is also a frequent presenter during the various lectureseries curated by the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment Branch of the DOD, as well as to myriadother U.S. government and university audiences. Finally, he routinely provides terrorism analysison national and international media broadcasts.Beyond academia, Koven is the Vice President and Director of Events at the Godparents of theChildren of Instituto Mundo Libre, a non-profit organization providing safe housing,rehabilitation and vocational training to homeless children in Peru. In addition, Koven is a BoardMember at Mindot, a non-profit educational platform for developing the next generation of localleaders and agents of social change. Finally, he is an Advisor at Concordia, a non-profitorganization dedicated to expanding public-private partnerships.

NSI Contributors

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Region

Asia

Afghanistan

Methodology

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National Security Topic

Terrorism

Outcome

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