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SMA Publications (Tagged: Europe)

SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Crimea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders prior to and during the annexation of Crimea. Putin’s leading indicators, those of Crimean leaders and the Russian-supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, are presented separately.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Population’s Positive View of ISIL

There is ample evidence that by and large Muslim populations in the MENA region and Europe do not view ISIL favorably (see QL 3). However, there are many similarities and a few significant differences among these populations regarding the credibility and salience of many of the messaging themes that ISIL espouses.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Ally, Adversary, and Partner Use of Space

Given the complex nature of this question and the number of countries covered, the body of this summary response has been organized by country. Looking across all these countries, however, several themes and patterns emerge, and these are presented in Table 1 below. While Iran, Russia, the PRC, and North Korea have historically seen space as integral to national security and defense, the expert responses suggest this attitude is spreading. Motivated by the perception that regional instability is increasing, many other states, which previously conceived of their space operations as primarily civil in nature, are beginning to regard space as essential to their national security and defense. This, in turn, has led to a greater focus on dual-use technologies. Many, not just Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, also view space as a source of national pride and international prestige. Finally, while the specific organization of the space sectors in these countries may differ, all have fewer institutional barriers to military use of civil (government and/or commercial) capabilities than we see in the US. Furthermore, there are institutional and financial incentives for government and commercial entities to work together. These findings are consistent with the analysis of the experts who contributed to Question 7.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Multi-Step Approach Closing DOD's Cognitive Capability Gap

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conducted a year-long project for USSOCOM on the growing prevalence of Competition Short of Armed Conflict (CSAC), or use of “Gray Zone” tactics by US adversaries. Key findings from the study include first, the immediate need to incorporate the “human / cognitive domain” into military planning to avoid the strategic surprise that gray zone tactics intend. Second, the study highlighted the current deficit in the joint force of operationally-applicable human / cognitive domain information and expertise. During its final project review, the study’s Senior Review Group (SRG) noted that “…the changing nature of conflict means that the US Department of Defense (DOD) needs to start changing the way it thinks as a whole, and the results of this SMA effort can play a valuable role” in broadening our understanding of the strategic and operational environment to incorporate the human/cognitive aspects of military operations. Reflecting on the deficit in US capabilities in the cognitive environment the SRG asked: “Who is going to craft the appropriate messages? Who is going to provide the necessary tools? Who is going to use these tools? These are questions that we need to answer.”

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Influence in an Age of Rising Connectedness

A strong argument can be made that we are moving toward a pluralized, multipolar world, in which military and economic sources of power are widely distributed. Technologies (e.g., the Internet and rapid means of mass migration) are making nation states increasingly more porous, and a resurgence of nationalism and other forms of ethnic or religious identity politics has solidified some states and weakened others. Given these properties of human development, the question remains as to how nations and societies position themselves to ride these revolutionary changes with some degree of confidence. The continuance of these factors may change the way that the US, its partners, and its adversaries consider and prioritize influence, both within the state and across interstate borders. The DOD is evolving in ways that demand a more synergistic approach than we have traditionally taken across the human and technical dimensions. To date, military operations have characteristically focused on compelling adversaries through the threat or application of force to achieve victory (i.e. “control”). Changing environmental factors, increased activism by non-state actors, technology, and recent lessons learned suggest that the DOD will be challenged to adopt revised, if not entirely new approaches, to affect and direct the outcomes of military operations. Toward such ends, the DOD will need to focus upon the factors and forces that exert the necessary influence to produce desired behavioral outcomes across complex and intermeshed human and technical systems.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - May 2017

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Panel Discussion on the Gray Zone

At the request of the Commander, United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team initiated an effort, titled Gray Zone Conflicts-Challenges and Opportunities-A Multi-Agency Deep Dive Assessment, focused on assessing gray zone conflict. The overall objective of this SMA gray zone effort is to determine how the United States Government (USG) can identify, diagnose, and assess indirect strategies, as well as develop response options against, associated types of gray zone conflicts.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Strategic Multi-layer Assessment Report Card

Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) provides planning support to Commands. SMA projects focus on complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are NOT within core Service/Agency competency. SMA solutions and participants are sought across USG and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff (JS/J-39) and executed by ASD(R&E)/EC&P/RRTO. SMA efforts are Coalition based and address mission areas spanning Counter-Terrorism; Counter-Insurgency; Countering Proliferation of WMD (State and non-State); Individual, State, and National-level Deterrence Assessment; and Strategic Global and Regional Assessments.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Turkish Interests in Syria and Iraq

The SME contributors to this SMA Reach-back write-up argue that the recent changes in Turkish security policy (e.g., pursuit of ISIL along with the PKK; relaxing of demands for Assad’s removal; warming relations with Russia, etc.) do not necessarily indicate that Turkey’s key interests and intentions have changed. Rather, the shifts should be seen as changes in objectives or tactics that are still thoroughly consistent with Turkey’s fundamental and enduring security interests: 1) containing and ultimately eliminating Kurdish or other threats to Turkey’s internal stability; and, 2) foiling Kurdish (or others’) ambitions that threaten the integrity of Turkey’s borders. Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence David Gompert (USNA, Rand) explains that recognizing Turkey’s dire concern with territorial integrity goes a long way in clarifying what may at first blush appear to be inconsistent policies regarding Assad, Syria, ISIL and even its “traditional enmity” toward Russia. Gompert expresses the message clearly: “…we can count on the Turks to do whatever it takes to prevent Kurdish states on their southern border.”

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Part 4 Actor Interests and Motivations

This is Part 4 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Part 6 ISIL Support and Recruitment

This is Part 6 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Part 2 Learning From the Fight Against ISIS

This is Part 2 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Estonia

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders and has the potential to provide leading indicators and reveal key issues and concerns.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Putin's Information Warfare in Ukraine

Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.

Year Published:

2015

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SMA Publication

Understand and Respond to Contemporary Russia

More than two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West continues coming to terms with the implications of this event. As discussed by the project’s the first report, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ quickly established itself, because it seemed to be particularly useful to explain recent changes in Russian defence and foreign policy. The report highlighted that the concept was indeed valuable in drawing the attention of policymakers to some new security challenges. At the same time, the report cautioned that beyond this initial usefulness, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ as an explanation for almost every Russian policy move is likely to do more harm than good to our understanding of developments in Russia, as well as to the process of identifying and implementing realistic responses.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

The Conflict in the Donbas between Gray and Black

The current case study analyzes the presence and importance of Gray Zone conflict dynamics and the employment of various instruments of power during the still ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) since its beginning in 2014. More specifically, it studies the use of various instruments of power across a number of conflict dyads, present in the conflict. The case study’s findings can better inform practitioners and analysts about the presence, content, and effectiveness of utilizing different instruments of power in the Gray Zone.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Russian Interests in Syria

This paper found that Russia¹s strategic interests in the Middle East are fairly stable. What could change is how Russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the US election and change in administration. Indicators of change might include troop movement or alteration in leader discourse.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

ViTTa Assessment and Analysis of the Gray Zone

Within United States government (USG) and Department of Defense (DoD) spheres, the gray zone is a relatively new terminology and phenomena of focus for characterizing the changing nature of competition, conflict, and warfare between actors in the evolving international system of today. Accordingly, in January 2016, General Joseph Votel (US Army) requested that the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conduct a study of the gray zone. The SMA team was asked to assess how the USG can diagnose, identify, and assess indirect strategies, and develop response options against associated types of gray zone challenges. More specifically, the request emphasized that if the USG is to respond effectively to the threats and opportunities presented in the increasingly gray security environment, it requires a much more detailed map of the gray zone than it currently possesses.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Demystifying the Gray Zone: Colombia, Libya, Ukraine

The author of this report is Barnett S. Koven, Senior Researcher at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START). Questions about this report should be directed to Barnett S. Koven at bkoven@start.umd.edu.

Year Published:

2017

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SMA Publication

Turkish Army Syrian Intervention

There is general consensus among the expert contributors that the strategic and operational implications of the Turkish incursion are minimal: each sees the incursion as consistent with previous Turkish policy and long-standing interests. Turkey’s activities should be viewed through the lens of its core strategic interest in removing the threat of Kurdish separatism, which at present has been exacerbated by renewed Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) insurgency inside Turkey, its influence in northern Iraq, and the expansion of Kurdish territories in Syria more generally. As one commented, Turkey will prioritize itself. This means preventing the strengthening of Kurds at all costs (including indirect support to those fighting them). It also means patrolling borders, harsh treatment of those who try to get through and/or corrupt practices such as involvement in smuggling. One implication of note however is the increased risk of escalation between Turkey and Russia and Turkey and the US-backed Peoples Protection Units (YPG) that the incursion poses.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (ExecSum)

This project identified threats and opportunities in Eurasia (with particular emphasis on USEUCOM area of responsibility (AOR) countries). This report provides an overview of the regional issues identified by the US, Russia, NATO, and the EU in policy statements, speeches, and the media, and how they intersect with actor interests. It then presents the major themes arising from the integration of the team findings in response to USEUCOM’s questions, in particular the importance of understanding Russia’s worldview, and the subsequent recommendations for reducing conflict and increasing the probability of cooperation with Russia.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (Integration)

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Thematic Analysis of Russian and NATO Speeches

This study addresses key questions posed in the SMA EUCOM project by using thematic analysis of speeches from leaders of state and non-state polities in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Caucasus. The importance of an issue is measured by the density (mentions/words in speech) with which it is mentioned and the use of associated emotive language.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions in Russian Media

This study sought to examine future political, security, societal and economic trends to identify where U.S. interests are in cooperation or conflict with Russian interests, and in particular, identify leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

Eurasia Strategic Risk and Future Trends

The GMU Eurasia Strategic Risk project examined future political, security, societal and economic trends as they apply to the decision calculus of key Eurasian regional actors. Timed Influence Net (TIN) models were used to identify potential sources of strategic risk for the United States by focusing on actions and behaviors that would be considered adverse by the United States, NATO, and other U.S. partner nations. The goal was to provide planners with a tool that can be used to inform their discussions with military and non-military staffs from both the United States and its partners on potential Eurasia strategies. Among the key observations: When the adverse behaviors the United States seeks to influence are not related to a perceived existential threat to a NATO member, classical deterrence cost-benefit calculations lose importance. However, Russia’s perceived cost-benefit calculations of not acting, and its perception of the decision calculus of the United States and its partners remain important considerations. For this reason, the study concludes that NATO’s Article V will continue to serve as an effective deterrent to actions which the Alliance believes constitute an existential threat to a member country, but is less likely to deter attacks that do not jeopardize a member state’s existence because the political cost of restraint for Russia outweighs the potential cost of a likely NATO response.

Year Published:

2016

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SMA Publication

9th Annual SMA Conference - No War/No Peace...

Since the end of the Cold War and with the advent of the new century, new geopolitical realities have emerged that have made classical wars with national military forces pitted against each other far less likely. What we are witnessing are new categories of conflict that cannot be considered full1scale wars in the classical sense but cannot be described as “peace” either. Small1scale conflicts are complemented with intense engagement in the Information and other Spheres. These will almost certainly have great implications in the legal domains as well new forms of alliances. Multiple factors have come into play for these trends to emerge. This is a story of change versus continuity, and the conference focused on what has changed since the collapse of the USSR. As such, there are structural and intellectual challenges that prevent the United States Government (USG) from adapting and thriving is this new environment.

Year Published:

2015

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SMA Publication

Russian Opportunities and Challenges in the Arctic

The receding of the Arctic ice presents the Russian Federation with complex opportunities and challenges, both domestic and international. Russia is investing heavily in developing the infrastructure on its Arctic coastline to support both destination shipping in the Arctic and transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The estimated resources in the Russian Arctic Region in energy and minerals are very large but their extraction requires major long term investments and such investments are high risk ones because of harsh weather and the insufficiency of the existing infrastructure; some of the existing infrastructure is degrading because of the thawing of the permafrost. Russia’s effort to modernize its Armed Forces has included the creation of the Arctic Joint Strategic Command that includes the Northern Fleet. Old bases are being re‐opened and new bases are created in the Arctic region. These developments in the Arctic show clearly that the Far North is expected to have a major role in the future of Russia not only for economic reasons but also as a common theme, a common narrative that resonates with the Russian people. It will be unwise to interpret all Russian actions in the Arctic as being statements to the West or to the East. It will be helpful if they are also interpreted in terms of internal domestic (and nationalistic) considerations.

Year Published:

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SMA Publication

Protecting Homeland from Int'l & Domestic Terrorism

It would be comforting to be able to find some constants, some footholds in our understanding of terrorism. It is, in fact, the element of mystery as to what drives people to collective violence that makes us uncomfortable -- that fills us with terror. Researchers, policy makers, those who must combat terrorism, and the public hope for some simple formula for radicalization, a program or set of programs that will prevent groups of people from deliberately targeting other people in order to meet their needs (political, economic, social, etc). There is no magic formula within this paper collection, but there are a variety of perspectives that, either in isolation or when integrated, provide new ways to think about terrorism and potentially to inform decisions that will abate this global phenomenon, not exacerbate it.

Year Published:

2010

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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.

Year Published:

2010

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SMA Publication

Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism

Dr. Hriar Cabayan, OSD, welcomed the participants on behalf of the Department of Defense (DoD), the State Department (DoS), and the RAND Corporation to the Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism workshop held from 19-20 May 2010 at Gallup World Headquarters in Washington, DC. The workshop focused on strategic communications and violent extremism and was designed to inform decision makers and was not intended as a forum for policy discussion. The workshop emerged from an SMA- and AFRL-sponsored white paper entitled Protecting the Homeland from International and Domestic Terrorism for Counter-radicalization and Disengagement. As the white paper was being written, it came to Dr Cabayan’s attention that Dr. Paul Davis at the RAND Corporation was writing an integrative literature review on the subject. The RAND report was entitled Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with Al-Qaeda. Building on that, CAPT Wayne Porter wrote a paper on the strategic campaign to counter and delegitimize violent extremism, which resulted in the genesis of this workshop.

Year Published:

2010

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SMA Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.

Year Published:

2009

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SMA Publication

ViTTa Analysis of Eurasia in the Next 5-25 Years

From July through November 2015, NSI employed its Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) methodology to systematically interview 26 subject matter experts in support of a Strategic Multilayer Assessment effort to research and identify drivers of conflict and cooperation in Eurasia in the next 5-25 years. Representatives from the United States European Command (EUCOM) provided 37 questions to guide the interview effort (see Appendix A). This report summarizes SME knowledge and insights on these questions—grouped into nine chapters.

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SMA Publication

Allocation of Commercial Space Industry Components

Thirty-four subject matter expert (SME) contributors, the majority from the commercial space industry, responded to this question. They provided details on the commercial space activities of 17 countries and the European Space Agency (ESA). As discussed in detail in other ViTTa reports,4 it is important to recognize that the division between public and private organizations and activities is rarely clear-cut. Furthermore, as contributors have noted in their responses both to this question5 and others,6 much of the space activity outside the US is concentrated on dual-use technologies and applications. For these reasons, we define the “commercial space industry” as capabilities and activities undertaken for commercial purposes, rather than capabilities and activities undertaken by a purely commercial space actor.

Year Published:

2018

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SMA Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).

Year Published:

2024

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SMA Publication

Russian Nuclear Rhetoric 2014-2023: Transatlantic Differences in Threat Perception

After decades of discourse on disarmament and non-proliferation, the war in Ukraine has effectively marked the return of nuclear weapons to both mainstream public rhetoric and military-policy planning, and highlighted the growing importance of strategic deterrence. Russia’s progressively more intense nuclear saber-rattling over the past decade is partly due to an updated NATO posture and gradual commitments by Western nuclear powers to update their arsenals.

Year Published:

2024

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SMA Publication

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23) provides a shared understanding of the Evolving Security Environment to 2043, thus establishing the context for Allied futures thinking. Based on this context, the Future Operating Environment 2024 (FOE24) will address the military problem sets for Allied Warfare Development. FOE24 will also serve as a baseline for further conceptual and strategic thinking. The renewed foresight cycle, consisting of SFA23, FOE24 and deployable foresight analytics capacities, will facilitate collective futures thinking within the Alliance, as well as augment individual Ally’s foresight capabilities.

Year Published:

2024

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SMA Publication

A Convincing Finnish Move: Implications for State Identity of Persuading Sweden to Jointly Bid for NATO Membership

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here.

Year Published:

2023

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SMA Publication

Operations in the Information Environment: Course of Action Analysis Exercise

The ICONS Project, a wargaming and simulation organization at the University of Maryland, was asked by the Joint Staff, J39, DDGO, Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (SMA), to design, execute, and analyze a Table Top Exercise (TTX) in support of the Integration of Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) research

Year Published:

2021

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SMA Publication

Experimental Red Teaming to Support Integration of Information in Joint Operations

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.As part of the modeling and simulation phase of the IIJO effort, the Center for Advanced Red

Year Published:

2021

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SMA Publication

Assessments of Operations in the Information Environment for the Eastern Mediterranean and South China Sea

In support of the USAF and the SMA, the TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulations Office (M&SO) employed the Athena Simulation to assess a series of research questions posed by the Air Force, as well as to test a series of explorable insights (hypotheses) developed during the project’s Net Assessment and Subject Matter Expert (SME) engagements. A total of 35 explorable insights were identified during the Net Assessment from which four specific study topics were derived for analysis utilizing the Athena Simulation. These included:

Year Published:

2021

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SMA Publication

The COVID Crisis: Implications for United States—and Global—Biosecurity

The United States’ (US) engagement of public health resources to meet the current SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) crisis has revealed vulnerabilities in testing and treatment components of biosecurity. Facing a severe shortage of available testing kits, the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) attempted to develop its own test for COVID-19, rather than following World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations for testing methods. The lack of tests has made it difficult to track exactly how many people within each state, as well as the US at-large have been affected, which has implications both for the extent of public health response, and considerations for approaches to stabilize and sustain the national economy.

Year Published:

2020

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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: State-Level Instability in the Gulf and Levant

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.

Year Published:

2020

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SMA Publication

Denazification in Germany: Lessons for Deradicalization in the CENTCOM AOR

Year Published:

2020

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SMA Publication

Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and the Quartet is low. However, prolonged tension between the two sides has failed attempts at mediation and the underlying issues persist.

Year Published:

2020

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SMA Publication

Common Characteristics of "Successful" Deradicalization Programs of the Past

There is no “one size fits all” approach to disengagement and deradicalization—disengagement and deradicalization programs should be tailored to the specific environments and individuals/groups of interest. However, analysis of historical cases of disengagement and deradicalization programs reveals what appear to be several common characteristics of programs that have demonstrated some levels of success: creating a sense of hope and purpose, building a sense of community, providing individual attention and regimented daily schedules, and ensuring sustainable, long-term commitment following completion of the program (i.e., after- care).

Year Published:

2020

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SMA Publication

Rethinking Communication Influence from a Strategic Communication Approach

For over a decade, many within US defense and interagency circles maintain a belief they are ‘losing’ the communication influence battle, one its adversaries are excelling at due to seemingly better strategy and reach. Peer competitor infiltration into American elections, radical groups facilitating foreign fighter flow over chat applications, and/or failed attempts to counter narratives should reason for a glaring need for the US to change strategy. But surprisingly little or none of this strategic shift is occurring.

Year Published:

2020

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SMA Publication

Complex Adaptive Systems

In his interview with Lt Col David Lyle (US Air Force Academy) on 4 June 2019, Dr. Sean Lawson discusses how complexity might inform SMA’s Future of Global Competition & Conflict study. More specifically, Dr. Lawson argues that although it is important to look back at previous instances of the butterfly effect, butterfly effects are not possible to control because they are merely byproducts of a system’s existence.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Discrete, Specified, Assigned, and Bounded Problems: The Appropriate Areas for AI Contributions to National Security

The cluster of technologies associated with artificial intelligence (AI) research and development, and the implications of these technologies across the spectrum of human activity including national security, generates a blur of fast-moving technological, political, strategic, and ethical puzzles. For all their hyper-modern veneer, tracing the trajectories of historical thought associated with these puzzles offers some much-needed clarity. To this end, what follows is an overview of three relevant trajectories. While far from exhaustive, practitioners and theorists alike in national security should have a solid grounding in these thought trajectories to facilitate reasoned decisions about AI research and development.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs): The Strategic Importance of Defining the Enemy

In this paper, as part of SMA’s Invited Perspectives series, Mr. Vern Liebl indicates that ‘violent extremist organization’ (VEO) may not be an accurate term for describing modern terrorist entities. To illustrate this point, Mr. Liebl first provides a brief history of how the term ‘VEO’ entered US defense, intelligence, and law enforcement officials’ lexicon and became commonly used. He then defines what the term ‘VEO’ means and questions whether it still appropriately applies to the organizations that have been labelled as such (namely Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State).

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

SMA Invited Perspectives Series: SOF Paradigm in Great Power Competition

The current National Security, Defense, and Military Strategies identify great power rivalries from Russia and China as two of the main challenges facing the United States for the foreseeable future.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

United Kingdom Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in United Kingdom were analyzed: 2015 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for years 2017 and 2011.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Serbia Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in Serbia were analyzed: Serbian state data on monthly income by occupation for 2018, and International Labor Organization (ILO) data on income by occupation for the years 2016 and 2014.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Italy Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Three datasets on wealth and status distribution in Italy were analyzed: 2012 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for years 2014 and 2010.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Germany Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Income data provided by the World Bank and occupational data provided by the ILO show similar patterns of a risk acceptant population with both the individuals or occupations earning the highest incomes being the most risk acceptant. Germany’s mean Arrow-Pratt measure is a modest -3.97.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

France Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in France were analyzed: 2015 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and 2014 International Labor Organization (ILO) incomes by occupation.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Finland Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Two datasets on wealth and status distribution in Finland were analyzed: 2016 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income, and International Labor Organization (ILO) income by occupation data for the years 2017 and 2011.

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Croatia Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Two datasets on wealth and income distribution were analyzed for Croatia’s country report: the 2017 World Bank quintile and decile estimates of income and data collected by Croatia’s government that provides the mean monthly income and number of employees for specific occupations.

Year Published:

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SMA Publication

SMA Quick Concepts Series: Global Influence

“Influence” and “power” are foundational to how geopolitics are discussed and understood. Many American planners and policymakers are strong believers in global influence: fearing both its relative and absolute loss; seeking to “grow” and “spread” the United States’ influence; and trying to counter the influence of critical competitors such as the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and the Islamic Republic of Iran (Jafri & Stevenson, 2019).

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Using Narratives to Shape Chinese and Russian Behavior – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Nicholas J. Cull (University of Southern California), Dr. John Delury (Yonsei University), Dr. Sean McFate (National Defense University), Dr. Nicholas Michelsen (King’s College, London), Dr. Christopher Paul (RAND Corporation), Dr. Laura Roselle (Elon University), Dr. Scott Ruston (Arizona State University), Dr. Jaganath Sankaran (University of Texas at Austin), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Potential for a China-Russia and/or US-China-Russia Alliance – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q9] Are there any commonly valued objectives that may enable an alliance between China and Russia against US interests, or among all three nations allowing a reduction of tensions?

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Chinese and Russian Economic Statecraft: Strategic Threat or Benign Business Activity? – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Dr. Kerry Brown (King’s College, London), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Major Christopher Culver (US Air Force Academy), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Peter E. Harrell (Center for a New American Security), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Derek M. Scissors (American Enterprise Institute), Andrew Small (German Marshall Fund), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Yun Sun (Stimson Center), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics), Dr. Yuval Weber (Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security), Ali Wyne (RAND Corporation), Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Zaborowski (US Central Command)

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Power Under Parity – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

Paul I. Bernstein (National Defense University), Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Abraham M. Denmark (Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars), Michael Fabey (Jane’s Fighting Ships), Dr. Peter Layton (Griffith University), Dr. Edward N. Luttwak (CSIS), Dr. Jahara Matisek (US Air Force), Dr. Sean McFate (National Defense University), Dr. Lukas Milevski (Leiden University), Anthony Rinna (Sino-NK), Dr. Jaganath Sankaran (University of Texas at Austin), Dr. Robert S. Spalding III (US Air Force), Dr. Michael D. Swaine (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), Nicolas Véron (Bruegel and Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

China’s and Russia’s Approach to Regional and Global Competition – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q8] How do China and Russia approach global, not just regional, arenas for competition?

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Types and Locations of Challenges to US Interests, 2019-2029 – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q5] In which regions should the US expect significant challenges to its interests over the coming decade? What form will these challenges take (e.g., poor/instable governance, rising hegemons, aggrieved populations, violent non-state actors, external influence operations, etc.) and which US interests will these challenges most likely impact?

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Russia’s Sentimental Revisionist Approach to Competition and Conflict – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q4] How does Russia perceive the continuum of conflict? How does Russia plan for, operate within, and manage risk within the competitive space? From the Russian perspective, what constitutes legitimate or acceptable deterrence, compellence, and escalation management? What are the implications of those differences for senior political and military decision makers in the US?

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

Kinetic and Non-Kinetic Tactics of Competing Powers Over the Coming Decade – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q2] What kinetic (e.g., weapon systems) and non-kinetic (e.g., disinformation campaigns, financial market manipulation, political tampering) tactics are and will be used by competing powers domestically and abroad to undercut US interests over the coming decade?

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Publication

The Character of Global Competition and Conflict, 2019-2029 – A Future of Global Competition and Conflict Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q1] How will the character of global competition and conflict change over the next decade, and which emerging global trends and conditions will drive this change? What are the implications of expected future global conditions for developing integrated US strategy and plans to defend US interests over both short- and long- term timeframes?

Year Published:

2019

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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Europe)

SMA Speaker Series

Using the New Character of Warfare to Dramatically Enhance Baltic Defense

Speakers: Dr. T. X. Hammes (Institute for National Strategic Studies)with Guest Host Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology)

July 16, 2025

‍Dr. T. X. Hammes

SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

January 25, 2023

Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)

SMA Speaker Series

How Developments in Brain Science Afford Military Utility

The use of sarin gas in Syria and the nerve agent VX to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, and ongoing international efforts in dual-use brain science (such as those described in the accompanying papers) prompt renewed interest in the current and near-term possibilities of developing and employing neuroweapons.

April 17, 2017

James Giordano and Drs. Diane DiEuliis

SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict

A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.

September 19, 2024

Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska

SMA Speaker Series

The Origins of the War in Ukraine

Russia seeks to dominate both Ukraine’s territory and its political future. Dr. Kimmage analyzed Russia’s motivations for initiating the war, as well as the failures of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in deterring the invasion.

October 14, 2024

‍Michael Kimmage

SMA Speaker Series

The Defender's Dilemma: Why countering grayzone aggression is so difficult (and what options Western governments do have)

Western governments, including the United States, face significant challenges in identifying gray zone aggression. This form of aggression is often difficult to detect before the attack is fully underway, as it can originate from any source at any time.

September 5, 2024

Elisabeth Braw

SMA Speaker Series

Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order

The ongoing war in Ukraine remains unresolved, and its outcome is widely debated among politicians, researchers, and military practitioners.

July 16, 2024

Luis Simón and Lotje Boswinkel

SMA Speaker Series

Critical Minerals Geopolitics and Security

Minerals are crucial components of advanced weapons systems, playing a pivotal role in military capability and power projection. They are increasingly integrated into new attack platforms, including Virginia-class attack submarines and long-range missiles.

May 16, 2024

Morgan Bazilian and Gregory Wischer

SMA Speaker Series

Some of the Analysis Behind RAND’s “Inflection Point” Report

Modern threats from developed nations like China are beginning to exceed US capabilities, partly because the US military was predominantly focused on regional adversaries such as Iraq during Desert Storm. Mr. Ochmanek categorized the US approach to military power projection during this period as expeditionary and sequential.

May 22, 2024

David Ochmanek

SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.

April 11, 2024

Christine Abely

SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.

February 23, 2024

Thomas Graham

SMA Speaker Series

The Minds and Actions of Devoted Actors and the Will to Fight: A Behavioral and Brain Studies Approach to War and Extreme Group Conflict

What drives warfighters to make costly sacrifices—including their lives—is a long-standing question that military and civilian leaders have tried to answer. Dr. Atran explained that this question can be studied through two different psychological models: 1) rational choice theory and 2) the devoted actor model. He argued that the devoted actor model is most suitable when assessing why people are willing to make costly sacrifices. When fighters decide that they are ready to freely give their lives, it is rarely a rational decision. Instead, it is a result of their devotion to the values that they hold most sacred. Understanding an individual’s sacred values is contingent on many factors, including how fused that individual’s identity is to that of a group. Individuals whose identities are completely fused with that of a single group are the most likely to give their lives in support of that group’s values.

September 12, 2023

Dr. Scott Atran (University of Michigan)

SMA Speaker Series

A New Asian Order is Emerging

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.

July 26, 2023

Mr. Mohammed Soliman (Middle East Institute)

SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Role in Global Nuclear Supply Chains

Ms. Dolzikova discussed how Russia’s civil nuclear sector has largely evaded the sanctions placed on the rest of the Russian economy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. During her presentation she outlined the drivers of the global dependency on Russia’s civil nuclear supplies, highlighting the challenges and potential approaches to diversification. For more information on this topic, you can read Ms. Dolzikova’s article Catch-235: Western Dependence on Russian Nuclear Supplies is Hard to Shake.

September 12, 2023

Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)

SMA Speaker Series

The Ukrainian Army is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how cooperation between a country’s military and prominent social media influencers can be a useful tool for harnessing narrative control relating to conflicts. Dr. Helmus argued that Ukraine has been out-performing Russia in its ability to create and disseminate effective narratives surrounding the ongoing war. The success of Ukraine’s information operations is in part due to its tactic of leveraging civilian and military influencers who regularly post on social media. These influencers use their platform to share posts that highlight the loss of innocent life during Russian attacks, the resilience of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the success of Ukrainian military operations. These information operations come at virtually no cost to Ukraine because most creators are posting videos on their own volition. Dr. Helmus commented that while researchers have not been able to empirically confirm the positive effects of these social media operations, Ukrainian officials have emphasized their importance on the battlefield. While Ukraine has recently been using its media to great effect, the practice of leveraging influencers on social media is a well-used marketing strategy.

June 6, 2023

Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND)

SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.

March 1, 2023

Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)

SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.

February 1, 2023

Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

SMA Speaker Series

Slaughtering Sacred Cows? German Energy Security, Nuclear Sharing, and the War in Ukraine

After the Cold War, despite many warning symbols from Russia (e.g., President Vladimir Putin’s election in 1999, the war against Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014), Germany and the rest of Europe entered a state of complacency regarding a potential Russian threat to Western security, energy, and hard power. Dr. Dorondo explained that successive German chancellors adopted a rosy vision of the nation’s future—a carbon-neutral Germany within a peaceful Europe. In the process, the nuclear power generation sector of Germany’s economy would be phased out, coal would no longer be used, and natural gas production would contribute to a new socioeconomic vision of the future. In part due to the lack of a perceived threat from Russia, German limited its military spending.

November 21, 2022

Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University)

SMA Speaker Series

Transcultural Predictors of Will to Fight

Combatants’ willingness to fight and sacrifice their lives, family, or personal property has altered the expected outcome of military conflicts throughout history. An opponent’s unexpected will to fight has affected the US in many of its regional conflicts, such as Vietnam and Korea. Recent conflicts in Iraq and Ukraine have further demonstrated that leaders in the US and other countries have a poor understanding of what constitutes a combatant’s will to fight and its effects on the battlefield. Most research to understand populations utilize mass survey data collection, which lacks the scientific rigor that analytical study of this topic requires. The research by Artis International uses online tools and social media, brain scans, and in-person interviews to understand what affects individuals’ will to fight. The studies focus on right-wing nationalists in Spain, jihadist fighters, and Ukrainian soldiers defending their homeland.

October 12, 2022

Atran, S. (Co-founder, Artis International; Emeritus Director of Research, France’s National Centre for Scientific Research)

SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.

October 5, 2022

Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)

SMA Speaker Series

The Berkeley Protocol as a New Guide for Strengthening Digital Investigation Methods

The increasing proliferation of smart phones and internet availability is changing the way that digital investigations are occurring, especially in remote areas. While the digital realm has existed since the invention of radio, video and satellite imagery have given digital investigators new tools within the past few decades. New tools and the creation of social media have also resulted in the need for new global standards regarding the collection and handling of digital information for legal purposes. These new standards are encapsulated in the Berkley Protocol. Dr. Koenig explained that the Berkley Protocol—the first international standard used in digital investigation and prosecution—is used to give investigators a starting point regarding the quality standards of information being collected and how to legally go undercover on social media.

August 24, 2022

Koenig, A. (Executive Director, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law; Lecturer, UC Berkeley School of Law; Co-founder, UC Berkeley Investigations Lab); Freeman, L. (Director of Technology, Law, and Policy, Human Rights Center, UC Berkeley School of Law)

SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Lessons

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was preceded by nearly a decade of Russian propaganda, claiming that Ukraine is Russian and that Ukraine is run by Nazis, and overall, perpetuating the dehumanization of Ukrainians. Journalists—especially Ukraine’s war-time journalists—are playing a crucial role in combating these Russian narratives and setting the groundwork for future legal trials relating to war crimes and sanctions.

July 14, 2022

Pomerantsev, P. (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University); Butusov, Y. (Chief Editor, Censor.NET); Rybak, V. (Analyst & Project Coordinator, Internews Ukraine); Makaruk, M. (Speaker of the International Volunteer Intelligence Community, InformNapalm)

SMA Speaker Series

Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War

The use of autonomous weapons systems is frequently debated by countries’ leadership, military personnel, and scholars because of its potentially destructive capabilities.

June 3, 2022

Paul Scharre

SMA Speaker Series

The Future of European Security

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. James Goldgeier (Visiting Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University; Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution; & Professor of International Relations, School of International Service, American University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

April 21, 2022

Dr. James Goldgeier

SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

March 17, 2022

Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev

SMA Speaker Series

Where Does France Stand In the Upheaval of the World?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Tsiporah Fried (Senior Advisor to the Vice Chairman of the French Joint Chiefs of Staff) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

February 24, 2022

Tsiporah Fried

SMA Speaker Series

Poland's New Model Army

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jacek Bartosiak (Founder and Owner, Strategy & Future; Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

February 4, 2022

Jacek Bartosiak

SMA Speaker Series

Security Implications of Germany’s Federal Election—An Interim Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. David R. Dorondo (Western Carolina University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Session.

November 4, 2021

David Dorondo Biography

SMA Speaker Series

Global Health Diplomacy in the Time of COVID-19

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Erik Herron (Eberly Family Distinguished Professor of Political Science, West Virginia University) with Dr. Cynthia J. Buckley (Professor of Sociology & Faculty Affiliate of the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies and the European Studies Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.

August 24, 2021

Dr. Erik Herron and Dr. Cynthia J. Buckley

SMA Speaker Series

Learning From Crises Like COVID-19 at Multiple Speeds of Relevance

Lord O’Donnell began the discussion by recalling several moments when the UK’s government was forced to react to a national or international crisis. These events were Desert Storm (1991), Black Wednesday (1992), the Global Financial Crisis (2008), and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020). One characteristic that these events had in common, excluding Desert Storm, was that there was no contingency plan in place when the crisis began. The lack of a contingency plan by the government was either a result of the event occurring too quickly or, as in the case of Brexit, the government did not want to influence how the public voted in a referendum. Lord O’Donnell emphasized that even if a government does not have a contingency plan, it is still important for that government to gather data and react quickly to events. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, when it first broke out, the UK government was working on a contingency plan for a flu virus. COVID-19 is not a flu, however, so the government was left with only a partial contingency plan. The COVID-19 pandemic also demonstrated how dealing with a global pandemic is not solely a medical issue but a societal issue. When addressing how to best counter a pandemic, it will take input from the whole of society, which includes educators, medical personnel, politicians, and communicators, Lord O’Donnell argued.

May 28, 2021

Lord Gus O’Donnell and Sir Lawrence Freedman

SMA Speaker Series

Transitioning to COVID-19’s Next Phase: National Security Risks and Opportunities Now

Sir David argued that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused countries to realize that they must broaden their definition of national security threats. As proof that some nations are already doing this, Sir David cited the creation of the Joint Biosecurity Center in the UK, which was developed in the image of its Joint Terrorism Center. The creation of the Joint Biosecurity Center is likely the first of several new centers that will help the UK grow its capability to predict the impact of future national security risks, such as climate change. Sir David emphasized that an increase in a country’s ability to predict the impact of future security risks–and thus properly scale the problem–will help combat a sense of over-optimism or pessimism, both of which can lead to a distortion of reality. Sir David concluded his remarks by pointing out that as a result of COVID, some nations have started to adopt surveillance technologies and practices that jeopardize the individual freedoms of their civilians. The creation of new surveillance states could potentially be the beginning of an ideological battle between China’s surveillance society and the US’s ideology based on individuality, he suggested.

April 16, 2021

Sir Simon Wessely and Sir David Omand

SMA Speaker Series

Mitigating Disinformation in a Contested Environment: Frontline Experience from the Western Balkans

Mr. Capello began his presentation by emphasizing that disinformation can be countered by “providing newsworthy quality content” and that a fact-based narrative still has value in modern times. He then focused on the Balkans: a strategically important region for both the US and Russia. Mr. Cappello asserted that Russia has taken advantage of societal fissures in the region while propagating narratives that demonize the US; exaggerate threats to ethnic Serbs’ and Orthodox Christians’ security; and reinforce Russia’s image as a strong protector, which includes building a positive narrative surrounding Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mr. Capello stated that, similar to a kinetic war, the US cannot be a reactive participant in its battle against the spread of Russian disinformation.

March 10, 2021

John Cappello

SMA Speaker Series

Nord Stream 2: Implications and Outcomes for US-German Relations and the NATO Alliance

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Dr. Arnold Dupuy (NATO Science and Technology Organization’s Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163 and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)), Dr. Ion Iftimie (Central European University, Vienna, Austria), Dr. Daniel Nussbaum (NATO Science and Technology Organization’s Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163 and Naval Postgraduate School), and Mr. Paul Michael Wihbey (Georgetown University and Institute on the Geopolitics of Energy), as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.

March 4, 2021

David R. Dorondo, Arnold Dupuy, Daniel Nussbaum, and Paul Michael Wihbey

SMA Speaker Series

Global Strategic Situation Awareness: Economy

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Mr. Pete Steen (Joint Staff, J5), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.Mr. Steen began his presentation by posing the question, “How did the pandemic affect the US economy, and what are the implications for national security?” He noted that pre-COVID, the underlying narratives that characterized the strategic environment were trade war, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cheap money, and digital surveillance. In contrast, the post-COVID themes will likely shift to include multipolar competition and lessons on efficacy, durable damage distribution, and uneven digitization. Mr. Steen argued that there is a growing narrative that compares the US to China in terms of their effectiveness in handling the pandemic. He noted that this is an example of the ongoing competition between authoritarianism and democracy as a model for society. According to Mr. Steen, China is propagating a message that argues that the tools of authoritarianism have allowed it to manage the pandemic better than the US and democracies, more generally. This narrative reflects the competition for perceived success, not only in the healthcare realm but also in terms of the economy.

December 10, 2020

Peter Steen

SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence, COVID, and Global Democratic-authoritarian Competition

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Paul Nemitz (Principal Advisor, Directorate General for Justice and Consumers at the European Commission), Dr. Nicholas Wright (Georgetown University), Mr. Steven Feldstein (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), and Dr. Jessica Chen Weiss (Cornell University).Dr. Wright first set the scene on how artificial intelligence (AI) has been reshaping critical systems globally. He explained that AI has contributed to the rise of digital authoritarianism in China. AI has also added to the digitization of liberal democracies in the US and Europe. Nations that have adopted these different models are competing for influence in the global system, in which there are critical swing states that may embrace one model over the other. In other words, there is global competition among states with competing visions regarding how we can digitize. COVID-19 has made all of this more pressing due to the rapid global movement towards digitization over the past 8 months. Dr. Wright then discussed the benefits of surveillance, highlighting that the use of surveillance technologies has been entirely necessary in order to enable the rich, industrialized world’s social and economic progress over the past two centuries. Furthermore, actors can determine possibilities for utilization of surveillance technologies based on their state’s environment. This leads to a central question: How does one establish democratically-accountable rules and norms that provide as much of the upsides of AI-supported surveillance as possible, without creating technological affordances that could facilitate authoritarian concentrations of power?

November 10, 2020

Speakers: Chen Weiss, J. (Cornell University); Feldstein, S. (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Nemitz, P. (Directorate General for Justice and Consumers at the European Commission); Wright, N. (Georgetown University)

SMA Speaker Series

Extended Deterrence in Doubt? Possible German Futures: 2021

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series, featuring Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University).Dr. Dorondo began his presentation by discussing the tumultuous time that nations on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean are experiencing, while highlighting the political evolutions occurring in the US, the EU, and NATO. In Germany, 2021 holds a number of important state elections and a national election in which a new chancellor will be elected. However, Dr. Dorondo argued that it is important to bear in mind that any doubt about nuclear sharing in Germany as we approach the 2021 electoral year is nothing new. That said, it is also imperative to consider the necessity for nuclear sharing in support of transatlantic cooperation. Germany and other Non-Nuclear Weapons States (NNWS) in NATO have a vested interest in what is sometimes called “nuclear decoupling” from the US. Theoretically speaking, the European states within NATO and the EU could achieve strategic autonomy logistically; however, there is not significant enough collective will to establish that strategic autonomy, Dr. Dorondo argued. He then stressed that the US and NATO must continue not only to deter but also assure and reassure in all domains.

October 27, 2020

Dr. David R. Dorondo

SMA Speaker Series

Harnessing Futures and Foresighting Techniques – Using Methods, Approaches, and Multidisciplinary Teams to Understand the Strategic Implications of COVID

SMA hosted a panel discussion as part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series, entitled “Harnessing Futures and Foresighting Techniques – Using Methods, Approaches, and Multidisciplinary Teams to Understand the Strategic Implications of COVID,” featuring Prof. Rebecca Braun (Professor of Modern Languages and Creative Futures, Lancaster University, UK), Mr. Andrew Curry (Director of Futures, School of International Futures (SOIF)), and Mr. Philip Tovey (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)). The moderator was Ms. Nicole Omundson (NSI, Inc.).

September 30, 2020

Speakers: Braun, R. (Lancaster University, UK); Curry, A. (School of International Futures (SOIF)); Tovey, P. (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra))

SMA Speaker Series

Strategy for a Pandemic: The UK, COVID-19, and Resilient Strategy for Future Shocks

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Sir Lawrence Freedman (King’s College London) as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Sir Lawrence presented a series of lessons that can be learned from the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in the UK.

June 23, 2020

Sir Lawrence Freedman

SMA Speaker Series

21st Theater Sustainment Command (TSC) Communications

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by 1LT Piotr Zagorowski (USARMY 21st TSC) and MAJ Garrett Stotz (USARMY 21st TSC) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

October 10, 2018

Stotz, G. (USARMY 21st TSC); Zagorowski, P. (USARMY 21st TSC)

NSI Publications (Tagged: Europe)

NSI Publication

Gray Zone Trends in Colombia, Libya and Ukraine

This report employs frequentist statistical analysis in order to model the effects of various factors, including the type of actors (state, violent non-state actor (VNSA) or civilian) involved and the prevalence of kinetic activity, on (de-)escalatory trends in Gray Zone conflicts.

Year Published:

2017

View Publication

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