Poland's New Model Army

Speaker(s): Bartosiak, J. (Founder and Owner, Strategy & Future; Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures)

Date: 3 February 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jacek Bartosiak (Founder and Owner, Strategy & Future; Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

Russia’s troop movement to Ukraine and Belarus has caused Poland to create a New Model Army and redesign how it would fight against an invading Russian force. This includes figuring out how it will defend itself against Russia in the gray zone. Competition in the gray zone includes any Russian actions below the level of aggression that would incur NATO’s Article 5. Article 5 insists that if one NATO country is attacked then all other NATO countries will collectively defend it. Because Poland is a land power, its new-model army will focus primarily on land and air capabilities. Dr. Bartosiak commented that while the outcome of a military engagement is uncertain, it is likely that Russia would quickly win a military conflict. Poland’s best defense against Russian aggression is cooperation between Poland and its neighbors: Lithuania, Ukraine, and Belarus. Also, keeping Ukraine independent from Russia is crucial for Polish national security.

Russia and Poland are historic enemies; with several wars over territory in eastern Europe during the last 400 hundred years. Dr. Bartosiak commented that even though a Russian victory would be likely, it would struggle to fight a long-term military conflict financially and industrially. Because it wants to avoid a kinetic war, a focal point of Russian grand strategy is weakening NATO and the US ties to Europe. If Russia can accomplish this, then Russia believes it can create favorable economic and security deals with Europe.