How Climate Change Impacts Security and Conflict Worldwide

Speakers: Dr. Tim Clack (University of Oxford), Lieutenant General (Ret) Richard Nugee (British Army), Ella Fleming (UK Defence Science Technology Laboratory)

Date: 19 September 2024

Speaker Session Summary

Climate change is projected to have deep and far-reaching effects as its pace continues to increase, amplifying states’ insecurities and vulnerabilities. These effects will manifest themselves differently in various regions and countries, occurring at different scales and paces for geographical and environmental reasons. The security effects of climate change include, but are not limited to, increasing national and ethnic tensions; decreasing water, food, and resource security; and internal and cross-border human displacement. In just August and September of 2024, more than 72 global military deployments were carried out in 23 countries in response to extreme weather-related crises. Climate-related crises are not only destructive, but they are also costly. The states that are most affected by climate change can expect to spend up to 20% of their GDP over the next three decades. Dr. Clack emphasized that there will also be increased conflict associated with climate change as food and other resources become scarcer. Malign actors have already begun weaponizing the scarcity of crucial resources, such as water, in East Africa, increasing the potential for climate related conflict in the region. 

Lieutenant General (Ret) Nugee pointed out that the United States and other highly developed countries have a system of governance that will maintain civil society, even as the worst effects of climate change are realized. However, many countries do not have such resilient systems of governance and could face societal collapse if resources become too scarce. He also emphasized that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has limited Europe’s access to natural resources necessary for the region’s planned transition to a green economy. This is because many of these resources are in the highly contested Donbas region. Ms. Fleming focused on the climate effects in Somalia as a case study for how climate effects can exacerbate a country’s security risks. She focused on the effects on Somalia’s fisheries, biodiversity, and agropastoralism and spotlighted the connection between Al-Shabaab and intrastate conflict. The terrorist organization is able to capitalize on agropastoral vulnerabilities in Somalia and grow its recruitment by creating greater resource insecurity within Somalia, primarily targeting young military age men. This Somalia example serves as an illustration of some of the tactics that may be implemented across the world as climate change’s effects increase in scale. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biographies:

Dr. Tim Clack is the Chingiz Gutseriev Associate Professor at the School of Anthropology and Museum Ethnography, University of Oxford. He is also an Associate Fellow of the Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research (CHACR). Tim is the Director of the Climate Change & (In)Security Project and General Editor of the Routledge Advances in Defence Studies (RAiDS) book series. His research is multidisciplinary and focuses on the drivers and aftermaths of conflict, including climate and environmental change. Prior to and alongside his academic career, he has delivered a number of senior and specialist roles for the UK Cabinet Office and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

After a full operational career in the British Army, as his final role Lieutenant General (Ret) Richard Nugee , wrote a Review of Defence’s approach to Climate Change and Sustainability. He has since earned international recognition for bringing the implications of Climate Change and Sustainability to the Defence and National Security sectors.  Previously the Non Executive Director for Climate Change and Net Zero for the Ministry of Defence, he has expanded this policy interest into delivery, as the Chair, Director and Advisor of a number of renewable energy and environmental sustainability start-ups.

Ella Fleming is a Principal Analyst at the Defence Science Technology laboratory (Dstl). She has worked in Defence and Security for over 8 years and has expertise in socio-cultural and regional analysis, intelligence analysis, and gender in the armed forces. Ella has held sponsored positions as a Visiting Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) working on the future of African security and the decline of UK influence. She is now entering the 5th year of her sponsored part-time DPhil at Oxford University assessing climate change, conflict and institutional responses to climate security policy and approach on behalf of Dstl. Ella recently returned from 8 months in the field collecting data with the UN in Nairobi, Kenya, followed by a brief 5 month career break as an Expert Climate Security Consultant for the UN Mission to Somalia (UNSOM) in Mogadishu, Somalia.