Geopolitics: Mahan, Mackinder, Spykman, Kennan, China, Climate Change, and Current US Strategies
“Geopolitics: Mahan, Mackinder, Spykman, Kennan, China, Climate Change, and Current US Strategies”
Speaker: Jones, R. (USSOCOM J52 Donovan Group)
Date: 19 September 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM J52 Donnovan Group) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Mr. Jones first presented a series of thoughts for the audience’s consideration, which are posted below. He then spoke in detail about several primary theories of geography and geopolitics, including: Alfred Mahan’s “Sea Power” (1890), Halford Mackinder’s “Heartland” (1904), Nicholas Spykman’s “Rimland” (1942), and George Kennan’s “Containment” (1947). Next, Mr. Jones applied these theories to present-day China. He suggested that China’s approach in this era of great power competition is to win the “Heartland” first, then extend into the “Rimland.” China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) demonstrates how it is building the infrastructure necessary for power projection across the world. Moreover, Mr. Jones stated that China believes that it does not need to fight to win; in other words, if China can capture enough markets and ports in Europe and Asia, win enough hearts and minds, and gain enough influence, power and confidence will shift from the US to China. Therefore, US decision makers must think beyond traditional war-focused theories and ask themselves, “How do we win this influence campaign? How do we posture ourselves to ensure that global confidence doesn’t shift?” Mr. Jones then spoke about how climate change may affect geopolitics and the transfer of power in this era of great power competition. He stated that sea lanes are likely to open up in the northern Arctic due to global warming, which would provide short, convenient maritime passages for China and Russia to conduct trade. He also suggested that the China-Russia relationship is likely to strengthen as a result. Mr. Jones then emphasized that the US needs a more effective global narrative than “America First” to compete with China’s “Belt and Road” and that US decision makers must reassess whether they are focusing on the right aspects of great power competition. To conclude, Mr. Jones presented a series of implications for Special Operations Forces (SOF), including that they must recognize the wisdom (and vulnerabilities) of China’s combined, phased approach.
Biography
Mr. Robert C. Jones
Robert Jones is a retired U.S. Army Special Forces Colonel; a former Deputy District Attorney; and the senior strategist at U.S. Special Operations Command. Currently serving as a member of the SOCOM J5 Donovan Strategic Initiatives Group, Mr. Jones is responsible for leading innovative thinking on the strategic environment and how it impacts factors critical to national security; such as the evolving character of conflict, deterrence in competition and societal stability. He also serves as the Strategic Advisor to the Director of Plans, Policy and Strategy.
Mr. Jones is a featured lecturer for the JSOU Enlisted Academy on strategy, the evolving character of conflict, impact on viability of solutions, and implications for SOF. The Air War College also brings in Mr. Jones to address each class during their operational design phase to discuss the art of creative thinking in the context of design. He is currently promoting concepts and courses of action rooted in the principles of insurgency and unconventional warfare intended to revolutionize SOF operationalization of the National Defense and National Military Strategies. His focus is the pursuit of understanding, and the provision of context. If the world will not conform to what we wish it to be, then we must understand and engage the world as it actually is.
“If war is the final argument of Kings, then revolution is the final vote of the people.” RCJ
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