Evaluation of Counter Violent Extremism Campaigns in Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Speakers: Helmus, T. (RAND); Bodine-Baron, E. (RAND); Marrone, J. (RAND)
Date: 13 November 2020
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM/AFRICOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND), Dr. Elizabeth Bodine-Baron (RAND), and Dr. James Marrone (RAND).
Dr. Helmus began the presentation by emphasizing the importance of counter violent extremism (CVE) campaigns in the fight against violent extremism. In his recent work for RAND, he and colleagues supported and evaluated CVE campaigns in Nigeria, Indonesia, and the Philippines, specifically. He provided an overview of the structure of the study they conducted before turning the floor over to Dr. Marrone.
Dr. Marrone discussed his team’s findings in Nigeria. They used a text message survey of 2,000 participants in northern Nigeria in order to test whether a 10-week exposure to Ina Matifa Radio Talk Show provoked mentorship and increased sympathy for kidnapping victims. The results of the study showed that, after listening to the show, participants tended to agree more with some of the themes that the show was attempting to promote than they had previously, based on their opinion surveys. However, this positive result did not occur in all of the themes presented—in fact, some opinions on diversity and kidnapping empathy were opposite of what was intended. Therefore, there is evidence that a “boomerang effect” occurred in some instances.
Dr. Bodine-Baron then covered the RAND team’s study conducted in Indonesia. In this study, they used Facebook ads to recruit 1,500 participants. The survey structure paralleled that of the Nigeria study, using weekly exposure with follow-up surveys to gauge participants’ opinions. The goal of the study was to determine whether a social media campaign can promote acceptance of diversity. There was a high response rate among participants, whose levels of enjoyment and engagement in the counter violent extremism content were similar to those who viewed the control content. However, their analysis also showed that, similar to the Nigerian case, there were both positive and negative effects of the campaign’s themes.
To conclude, Dr. Helmus discussed the RAND team’s study conducted in the Philippines, which specifically evaluated the ability of a radio drama to promote youth and women’s empowerment and good governance. In this study, the team used face-to-face interviews to recruit 1,200 Mindanaoans at the Barangay level. This study proved to be less successful than the others, as several factors undermined the team’s confidence in it. First, a major gender difference between groups revealed selection bias in the enrollment of the treatment and control groups. Second, there was a series of earthquakes in Mindanao that affected the team’s data collection and analysis. Lastly, the treatment and control groups exhibited nearly simultaneous results. Overall, these RAND studies imply that counter-messaging campaigns can be effective. However, because the outcomes were inconsistent, it is critical that future assessments tease out varied effects, Dr. Helmus stated.
Note: We are aware that many government IT providers have blocked access to YouTube from government machines during the pandemic in response to bandwidth limitations. We recommend viewing the recording on YouTube from a non-government computer or listening to the audio file (below), if you are in this position.
Elizabeth Bodine-Baron
Senior Information Scientist; Associate Director, Force Modernization and Employment Program, Project Air Force
Washington Office
Education
Ph.D., M.S. in electrical engineering, California Institute of Technology; B.S. in electrical engineering, University of Texas at Austin; B.A. in liberal arts, University of Texas at Austin
Elizabeth Bodine-Baron is a senior information scientist specializing in complex networks and systems at the RAND Corporation. She is the associate director of the Force Modernization and Employment Program in Project Air Force. Her research interests include network analysis and modeling for both domestic and national security issues. Her recent work includes analysis of cyber and information operations, intelligence support to cybersecurity, logistics, and targeting policy. She has used network analysis of social media data to study violent extremism messaging, Russian propaganda, ISIS support and opposition networks, CENTCOM information operations, and U.S. Army recruiting efforts. Bodine-Baron received a B.S. in electrical engineering and a B.A. in liberal arts (Plan II Honors) from the University of Texas at Austin in 2006, and a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from California Institute of Technology in 2012.
Todd C. Helmus
Senior Behavioral Scientist; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Washington Office
Education
Ph.D. in clinical psychology, Wayne State University
Todd C. Helmus is a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. He specializes in disinformation, terrorism, and strategic communications. Helmus' latest research has focused on ways to counter Russian disinformation campaigns in the United States and Europe. His research also focuses on countering violent extremism with specific studies examining the networks of ISIS supporters and opponents on Twitter, identifying ways to enlist key influencers in support of U.S. strategic communications and developing approaches to assess the impact of propaganda campaigns. Helmus has served as a deployed advisor to U.S. commanders in Iraq (2008) and Afghanistan (2010-2011) and led studies on U.S. efforts to train Afghan special operations forces. He received his Ph.D. in clinical psychology from Wayne State University.
James V. Marrone
Associate Economist
Washington Office
Education
PhD in economics, University of Chicago; MSc in economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra; BS in mathematics, University of Chicago; BA in physics, University of Chicago
Jim Marrone (he/him) is an associate economist at RAND Corporation. He is an applied microeconomist focusing primarily on the way institutions and government programs impact marginalized populations and at-risk material culture. Major topical focuses are: military families and young servicemembers; counter-extremism programs and migrant assimilation; and historic sites and antiquities markets. His work is both theoretical and empirical, using statistical techniques in novel ways to develop better measurements of empirically important outcomes. Recent examples include the use of remote survey methods to study media programs' impact on support for extremism in developing countries, and the application of machine-learning methods to assess at-risk cultural heritage in disaster and conflict zones. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago.
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