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Tagged: National Security Topic = Stability

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SMA Publications (Tagged: Stability)

SMA Publication

Future of ISIS: What Experts Think Will Happen Next?

At its zenith in 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) controlled more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory. ISIS seized control over major cities, notably Mosul and Raqqa, which contributed to increasing disorder in the Middle East. As late as 2015, the geographic reach of ISIS appeared to pose serious threats to the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria as well as the physical safety of citizens in the region. Nonetheless, as of June 2017, estimates show that about 90% of Mosul had been liberated as Iraqi forces, in coordination with the Coalition, while they continued to regain large portions of the western part of the city. Similarly, a battle to retake Raqqa is in progress. US officials estimate that only around 2,000 ISIS fighters remain in the city, while US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Coalition forces total around 55,000 fighters. Given these developments, ISIS is likely facing the end of its territorial rule.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Meaning of ISIS Defeat & Shaping Stability

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DOD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes that protect minority rights in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Holistic Engagement Activities Ranking Tool (HEART)

More than ever, United States Government (USG) activities are planned and implemented in an atmosphere of shrinking budgets, high expectations and intense scrutiny at home, plus non-conventional enemies and complex operating environments abroad. In the security realm, there is little debate that the demand for cost-effective, high-impact, and transparent use of government resources requires the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DoS), and other government entities that operate oversees to work together or in complementary ways. Still, departments and their components have their own expanding missions, dwindling resources and programs to administer, making achieving unity of effort difficult. At present, there is no readily accessible process or framework that can incorporate and integrate the range of USG security-related activities abroad and that DOD planners and non-DOD practitioners might use to build common operating pictures – either within their own departments or in coordination with other departments working related activities. This deficiency increases the likelihood that what might be cost-saving efficiencies or wasteful redundancies in US security assistance and engagement programs will go unnoticed by planners and decision makers. Recognizing that US Africa Command (AFRICOM) engagement strategists and planners are in particular need of a systematic process for aligning resources and activities to strategies in the most effective and efficient ways possible, the Command J5 requested that the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team, “develop an evaluative tool to aid in prioritization and metric development for command engagement strategies.”
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Part 2 Learning From the Fight Against ISIS

This is Part 2 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (ExecSum)

This project identified threats and opportunities in Eurasia (with particular emphasis on USEUCOM area of responsibility (AOR) countries). This report provides an overview of the regional issues identified by the US, Russia, NATO, and the EU in policy statements, speeches, and the media, and how they intersect with actor interests. It then presents the major themes arising from the integration of the team findings in response to USEUCOM’s questions, in particular the importance of understanding Russia’s worldview, and the subsequent recommendations for reducing conflict and increasing the probability of cooperation with Russia.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (Integration)

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Israeli-Palestinian West Bank Cross Border Issues

This report presents insights from an analysis of a conceptual map, or qualitative loop diagram that relates Israeli and PA sovereignty and legitimacy in the West Bank territories with Palestinian violence and cross-border attacks against Israeli citizens, as well as IDF/COGAT activities. The relationships and feedback loops of Israeli and Palestinian security and political positions reflect those dynamics that drive the security challenges and risks that impact the effectiveness of PA security sector reform and institutional development. Specifically, the loop analyses suggest that:
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Barriers to Civil Order in Palestinian Security Sector

The origins of the Palestinian security sector can be traced to the 1993 Oslo I Accord, which established divisive security and policing responsibilities between the Palestinians and Israelis and the Oslo II agreement, which codified interim boundaries, including the division of the West Bank into a complex and fragmented patchwork of different jurisdictions. These divisions of land and security responsibilities remain in place to this day and have fostered a unique, complicated, and at times perplexing situation for both the Palestinian security sector and the civil society it serves to protect. The environment in the West Bank is replete with confusion over security sector authorities and responsibilities, frustration over barriers1 to the provision of security and justice, and fear and mistrust of the security sector forces. Moreover, the absence of publically available mission statements and codified legal documents, that clearly delineate the Palestinian security sector roles and responsibilities, adds to the complex situation.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Israeli-Palestinian Security Conundrum Assessment

At the request of the U.S. Security Coordinator for Israel and the Palestinian Authority (USSC) the J-39 Strategic-Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Branch undertook a Coordinator’s Mission Review in July 2014 and concluded it in February 2015. This SMA project resulted in an unprecedented collaborative effort among over one hundred subject-matter experts from numerous organizations across the Department of Defense, U.S. Government Departments and Intelligence Agencies, Academia, Think Tanks, and Private Industry. The work of these subject- matter experts is summarized in this white paper.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Understanding Megacities with the ISR Paradigm

Given the challenges of declining DOD budgets while improving our ability to monitor megacity populations, this white describe many of the issues facing the DOD for phase zero operations and collecting theinformation necessary should conflicts escalate.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Megacities: Socio-cultural Analysis Dhaka, Bangladesh

The Strategic-Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Megacity Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Intelligence (M- RSI) project seeks to aid United States Pacific Command (USPACOM) in understanding socio-cultural dynamics within megacities. For this portion of the project, USPACOM socio-cultural analysis (SCA) planning frameworks (“the SCA approach”) were used to guide remote data collection for a proto-type assessment of the risk of humanitarian crisis in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The SCA approach consists of five distinct, yet related frameworks1 that are designed to provide planners with a quick triage tool to assess risk, as well as provide a guide for analysts conducting longer-term assessments. The five frameworks are structured to reflect USPACOM’s mission objectives and planning process. Given this was a proof of concept effort, analysts were asked to apply two of the five SCA frameworks—the SCA Humanitarian Crisis (HC) Framework and the Intra-state Violence (IV) Framework—to Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Implications and Lessons Learned for Megacities

Our analysis of Dhaka shows how common problems of governance (lack of capacity, unclear lines of authority) and provision of services are magnified in both scale and impact in the context of megacities.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Pathway Indicators Analysis of Pakistan

This report explores the potential pathways associated with two hypothetical futures for the nation of Pakistan–Fragmentation and Muddling through. We started with theoretical propositions about the nature of, and points along, the pathways, tested these against historical cases, refined our characterizations of the paths, and then applied these to look at Pakistan from today forward.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

Pak-StaM Stability Model Analysis of Pakistan

This report addresses a number of key questions regarding the factors that underpin stability and instability in Pakistan. In particular: Which are the factors that most significantly contribute to governing, economic, and social stability in Pakistan? Are there factors commonly associated with stability that have no effect or have divergent effects on stability in Pakistan? What are the primary effect dependencies among factors? Is the effect of specific factors likely to change with time?
Year Published:
2012
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SMA Publication

South Asia Stability: Academic Consortium

The Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) office provides planning support to the Combatant Commands with complex operational imperatives requiring multi-agency, multi- disciplinary solutions that are not within core Service/Agency competency. Solutions and participants are sought across the United States Government (USG) and beyond. SMA is accepted and synchronized by Joint Staff and executed by ASD (R&E)/RFD/RRTO.
Year Published:
2012
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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

PAKAF Rich Contextual Understanding of COIN

The Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) program provides planning support to COCOMs and warfighters. The program coordinates with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and STRATCOM to support global mission analysis and to develop new analytic capabilities in support of specific tasking. These analytic capabilities seek to orient the commander to a decision for action. SMA develops multi-disciplined, multi-organizational teams for specific projects. It emphasizes the integration of human, social, cultural, behavioral, and physical sciences factors through participation of sociologists, anthropologists, economists, and physicist/engineers as well as universities, non-governmental organizations, and various interagency partners. SMA efforts produce focused, multi-disciplined strategic and technical assessments as well as documentation, training and education in the application of newly developed analytic tools.</p>,
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Afghan Cooperation with ISAF Development Projects

This project addresses two major interrelated objectives. The first objective is a substantive one: we are interested in better understanding why Afghan participation in ISAF and ISAF-sponsored initiatives is low, even when participation offers the opportunity for significant near-term benefits. We contend that the ISAF mission in Afghanistan presents a clear example of a shadow of the future decision problem for the Afghan people. Specifically, that low levels of Afghan participation result from the knowledge that ISAF presence is finite and that, after ISAF withdraws, insurgents will punish those who cooperated effectively negating the value of any benefits gained from that cooperation. This situation presents a serious policy challenge for ISAF, and a better understanding of the dynamics and factors that affect Afghans collaboration with ISAF’s local initiatives will help develop policies that can mitigate the current situation.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Afghanistan Helmand Province Deep Dive

The objective of Helmand Deep Dive Development and Governance Workshop was to examine academic works and newly generated data and models and to develop guidelines and recommendations for low-cost development project implementation. The Helmand Deep Dive effort focused on water, governance, reconstruction, and job creation.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

Stability Modeling (StaM) Analysis of Nigeria

Over the past decade the United States Government has recognized the importance of obtaining a rich contextual understanding of the operating environment, specifically focusing on the human terrain element, when addressing the current threats facing United States security interests, at home and abroad. This emphasis reflects a desire to obtain insight into the motivations underlying others’ intended or actual participation in violence against the United States, as well as the engagement strategies and initiatives that would be effective and sustainable within a given area of interest (AOI). However, this shift in thinking requires analysts and planners to quickly develop a nuanced understanding of the AOIs in which they are working in order to systematically assess their overall stability and identify areas of strength and weakness. A holistic understanding of the operating environment makes it possible to identify critical points in the system – both for stability and instability – and target engagement strategies and initiatives accordingly. This assessment also examines not only the first-order effects, but also potential second- and third-order effects, of US actions across multiple dimensions (governing, economic, and social).,
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model

The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, as defined by USAFRICOM’s interactive AOR map (https://www.africom.mil/military-presence). Developed from the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM), it identifies various variables or factors (nodes) and their linkages through direct connections to one another (edges), representing the complex conditions and dynamics of the OE in West Africa.
Year Published:
2025
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SMA Publication

Avoiding Self-Deterrence in the Context of Nuclear Ambiguity

The context of this Report has to do with Russia’s use of nuclear ambiguity and implied nuclear threats leading up to and after its invasion of Ukraine—specifically, threats to escalate to the use of low-yield nuclear weapons to support conventional offensive operations for political or economic gains. It examines the implications of Russia’s behavior beyond the Ukraine conflict, in particular, what lessons might other actors have taken away from the Ukraine war regarding the utility of threatening the use of low-yield nuclear weapons. We have intentionally cast a wide net to include a diverse set of perspectives on a range of actors. More specific questions of interest for this volume include, among others:
Year Published:
2025
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SMA Publication

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23) provides a shared understanding of the Evolving Security Environment to 2043, thus establishing the context for Allied futures thinking. Based on this context, the Future Operating Environment 2024 (FOE24) will address the military problem sets for Allied Warfare Development. FOE24 will also serve as a baseline for further conceptual and strategic thinking. The renewed foresight cycle, consisting of SFA23, FOE24 and deployable foresight analytics capacities, will facilitate collective futures thinking within the Alliance, as well as augment individual Ally’s foresight capabilities.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

SMA Prior Work in the Information Environment: An Annotated Bibliography

The current SMA project, Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO), builds on a strong foundation of prior SMA work on influence and information operations. The themes underlying the research reflect shifting priorities as SMA has responded to requests ranging counterterrorism to deterrence to great power competition.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Media Reporting on Egypt’s Economy and Bailout Narratives: The Role of Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian Media Narratives in Solving Egypt’s Economic Crisis

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Key Factors Affecting Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the USCENTCOM AOR

NSI, Inc. interviewed seven subject matter experts and conducted additional background research in support of its analyses on Black Swans, Gray Rhinos, and current thinking about key factors and variables not typically included in political stability models (e.g., climate variables, the influence of illicit networks).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: State-Level Instability in the Gulf and Levant

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Radicalization

At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Central Region Instability Dynamics

With support from GTRI, GMU worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to assess strategic risk to U.S. and partner interests in the Middle East caused by great power competition in the region.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Oman Succession Crisis 2020

While the death of Sultan Qaboos is inevitable, the succession will likely fall well within the purview of the Basic Law and will be done with minimal national or regional disturbance. Who that successor will be and the ability to navigate and lead as Sultan Qaboos has done for 49 years is at this time unclear. It is very likely that the people of Oman will express a desire for greater local and regional self-governance as well as more freedom of expression and the rolling back of restrictions on the cybersphere, but for actual internal violence, there is no way to predict this.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and the Quartet is low. However, prolonged tension between the two sides has failed attempts at mediation and the underlying issues persist.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Potential Paths to Instability in Jordan

It is highly unlikely that a single catalyst could lead to a civil war or revolt in Jordan. Significant regime crisis in Jordan would more likely require a ‘perfect storm’ of severe popular grievance aimed at the government (including the monarchy), multiple catalysts, and the failure of the regime’s considerable sources of resilience (i.e., buffers).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Regime Collapse in Syria: Expectations and Implications

At present, collapse of the Assad regime in Syria is generally considered to be a remote possibility for three reasons: the Syrian government’s consolidation of power, a fragmented opposition, and the resolve of international actors who are strongly committed to the survival of the regime.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Complex Adaptive Systems

In his interview with Lt Col David Lyle (US Air Force Academy) on 4 June 2019, Dr. Sean Lawson discusses how complexity might inform SMA’s Future of Global Competition & Conflict study. More specifically, Dr. Lawson argues that although it is important to look back at previous instances of the butterfly effect, butterfly effects are not possible to control because they are merely byproducts of a system’s existence.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Inequality, Risk Sensitivity, and Grievance in Context – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this report summarizes context-specific qualitative and quantitative analyses of the conditions impacting population aspirations and grievances for 25 countries, and how these impact US, Chinese, and Russian interests. Issues include:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Statistical Modeling of Risk and Political Instability in the Influence Environment – An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Success in the global competition between the US, China, and Russia may be determined by a country’s ability to influence the world’s populations. A population’s aspirations and grievances can drive national security problems for all three powers when frustrated aspirations and grievances lead to state instability, terrorism, or other challenges such as unwanted or unmanaged migration. In accordance with the questions posed in the J39 Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Great Power Competition tasking, this study is intended to address the following issues through the use of country-level global statistical modeling, including identifying or anticipating:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Global Competition: Planning Globally Integrated Operations

With support from GTRI, GMU worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to identify preferred, acceptable, and sustainable strategic outcomes for the U.S. and its partners. Decomposing these outcomes into causal effects and influencers served as a starting point to identify opportunities for Joint Force leaders and their inter-organizational partners to integrate military efforts and align military and non-military activities to avoid unacceptable strategic outcomes while pursuing U.S. national interests.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulation Directorate China Futures Study

The Competitive Zone (or Gray Zone) is “an operational environment ‘churning with political, economic, and security competitions that require constant attention.’” Given Russia’s military actions in eastern Ukraine and China’s expansion in the South China Sea, “military and academic communities have attempted to describe conflict in the Gray Zone to create shared understanding and spur discussion on conflict and competition in this space.”
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Jammu and Kashmir Reach Back: Media Analysis of Extremist Activities in Indian and Pakistani News

The following study explored how extremist organizations may take advantage of the Kashmir crisis; it identifies prominent extremist organizations and stakeholder interests reported in Indian and Pakistani news media. Data was collected from 54 Indian and Pakistani news sources from May 16th to August 16th, 2019; a total of 437 articles were analyzed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

12th Annual SMA Conference- The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World

The 12th Annual SMA Conference, entitled “The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World,” was held 21-22 May 2019 at the General Jacob E. Smart Conference Center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. The conference theme was defined as:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA Quick Concepts Series: Fragile States

As part of the Quick Concept Series, Dr. John A. Stevenson of NSI, Inc, defines “fragile states” in the context of this effort. In situating fragile states as internationally recognized political units experiencing disorder, Dr. Stevenson briefly reviews the various conceptions of state strength, and then operationalizes the correlates of state fragility. In doing so, Dr. Stevenson highlights which factors of state fragility foreign powers can assist with without increasing disorder in fragile states.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Achieving a Stable Regional Order in the Asia Pacific: What Does the US Need and What Should It Not Negotiate Away – A Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q6] What are the minimum regional and domestic political, economic, and social conditions that are essential for achieving a stable regional order in alignment with US and ally interests? Are there any factors that are sufficient to generate such stability in the region? That is, what should not be negotiated away?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Approaches and Measures to Stabilizing the Korean Peninsula – A Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank Report

This report summarizes the input of 18 insightful responses from the Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) expert contributors. While this summary response presents an overview of the key expert contributor insights, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the contributor inputs provided, each of which is worth reading in its entirety. For this report, the expert contributors consider whether there is anything that the US can do to empower the ROK to negotiate a solution that would remove both the nuclear and conventional instabilities on the Korean Peninsula. This summary details the various perspectives that emerge.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Stability)

SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Reach Back Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a panel discussion focusing on the most recent round of CENTCOM Reach Back questions as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The panelists for this session included Dr. John Arquilla (Naval Postgraduate School [NPS]), Mr. Thomas Barfield (Boston University), Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS), and Dr. Craig Whiteside (NPS).
May 16, 2018
Dr. John Arquilla, Thomas Barfield, Dr. Hy Rothstein, and Dr. Craig Whiteside
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SMA Speaker Series

Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations: Sources and Outlook

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Dr. Kaltenthaler first provided a brief summary of the present state of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations.
May 8, 2018
Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler
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SMA Speaker Series

Considerations in Southwest Asia Regarding Stability in Afghanistan

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Col Eero Keravuori (CENTCOM Combined Strategic Analysis Group J5-G) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Col Keravuori discussed the realignment of focus within CENTCOM — “a new great game”— looks at three factors that can be assessed to determine a pathway to Afghanistan’s stability (legacy of persistent instability, along with internal and external factors). Col Keravuori discussed each of these in turn, elaborating on internal factors (Afghan government, the Taliban, “power brokers,” and economics) and external factors (Afghanistan’s near neighbors and other powers) that have made stability difficult to achieve. Col Keravuori concluded by presenting a list of things that should be done to assist Afghanistan on its path towards stability and offering a series of relevant questions that SMA could help CENTCOM answer.
April 24, 2018
COL Eero Keravuori
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SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Remilitarization of the Arctic

The Arctic, considered a space of geopolitical cooperation following the Cold War, is increasingly becoming a region of strategic rivalry among Russia, China, and other Arctic states.
April 16, 2025
Speaker: Dr. James Patton Rogers (Brooks Tech Policy Institute, Cornell University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Globally Critical Infrastructure: The Unique Risks and Challenges

Certain infrastructures are not only important to individual nations but also entire regions and the global system. Globally critical infrastructure (GCI) can be located within, across, and outside state borders.
April 1, 2025
Zak Kallenborn
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Stability and Emerging Russian and Chinese Technologies

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Juljan Krause (University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation), Dr. Kimberly Peh (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), and Dr. Spenser Warren (Harvard Kennedy School of Government’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 20, 2025
Dr. Juljan Krause, Dr. Kimberly Peh, and Dr. Spenser A. Warren
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SMA Speaker Series

Ecological Security: Military or Civil Duty?

Ecological security will likely be one of the defining security issues of the 21st century. Mr. Lewis emphasized that the world is in a race between the harmful effects of global climate change and the delayed but necessary efforts in mitigation, adaptation, and regeneration.
February 12, 2025
Thammy Evans and Gary Lewis
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SMA Speaker Series

When Rambo Meets the Red Cross: Civil-Military Engagement in Fragile States

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and their military counterparts often have a confrontational relationship, with both sides suggesting that the other should “stay in their respective lanes.”
December 6, 2024
Dr. Stanislava P. Mladenova
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SMA Speaker Series

The Origins of the War in Ukraine

Russia seeks to dominate both Ukraine’s territory and its political future. Dr. Kimmage analyzed Russia’s motivations for initiating the war, as well as the failures of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in deterring the invasion.
October 14, 2024
‍Michael Kimmage
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Influence Operations

Global Witness employs a strategy of research, exposure, and advocacy to dismantle autocratic and kleptocratic regimes, such as Charles Taylor’s regime in Liberia.
July 31, 2024
Patrick Alley
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SMA Speaker Series

Building Solutions to Post-conflict Stabilization

The optimal outcome of any military conflict is a lasting peace in the post-war period. Professor Heuser discusses insights from historical and ongoing conflicts that shed light on the factors influencing the establishment of enduring peace.
March 6, 2024
Dr. Beatrice Heuser
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SMA Speaker Series

A Climate of Insecurity? Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and National Security

The rapidly evolving global climate system is undergoing changes at an unprecedented rate, placing significant strains on governments and communities worldwide.
January 4, 2024
Dr. Samuel Henkin
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.
February 23, 2024
Thomas Graham
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SMA Speaker Series

Freedom in the World 2023: Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy

For fifty years, Freedom House has published its assessment of the state of democracy around the world. Freedom House categorizes countries and territories in to three groups based off a point system: 1) free, 2) partly free, and 3) not free. Dr. Gorokhovskaia mentioned that 2022 saw a continuation of a 17-year democratic slide; however, there were several bright spots for democracy around the world. For instance, during 2022 only one more country that became less democratic (35) than countries became more democratic (34). In comparison, during 2021, 35 more countries became more autocratic (60) than countries that became more democratic (25). Several factors that lessened the global strength of democracies during 2022 included a rash of military coups. For example, Burkina Faso experienced several military coups itself that resulted in the suspension of its constitution. Burkina Faso had the largest point decrease of 23-points during 2022. Columbia experienced the largest growth in democratic strength, increasing by 6 points. Columbia’s increase was due to more fair and competitive political elections than it had experienced in recent years. Individual country reports go into greater detail.
September 20, 2023
Yana Gorokhovskaia (Freedom House)
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SMA Speaker Series

Using a Nuclear Security & Nonproliferation Approach to Reduce US-PRC Escalation Risks in a DPRK Collapse Scenario

Despite the deep freeze in US-China relations, the US and China have mutual interests that could reduce risk in a future DPRK regime collapse scenario. The US and China have prior experience successfully collaborating on nonproliferation initiatives, including standards for nuclear facilities and security measures relating to the storage and transportation of nuclear material. US and Chinese scientists have also collaborated in unstable and conflict-ridden countries, such as Nigeria, to collect and clean nuclear waste. Moreover, the US and China have signed bilateral nuclear agreements in the past and are two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, or P5. Their status as P5 countries provides the US and China an easy avenue for communication and litigation. Dr. Anderson stated that the US can try to increase bilateral communication, collaboration, and invite Chinese scientists to observe or participate in future nuclear exercises or try and better bilateral political relations in this DPRK regime collapse scenario. South Korea can also play a role in increasing the awareness surrounding denuclearization by hosting UN security conferences.
June 8, 2023
Dr. Justin Anderson (NDU)
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SMA Speaker Series

Insights on 20 Years of Counterinsurgency Research

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.Through the 2000s and 2010s, terrorism was a prevalent topic of research among academics, creating a deep pool of peer-reviewed sources. A group of researchers from the University of Maryland, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) conducted a review of literature from the last 20 years on the study of counterinsurgency (COIN). The pool of literature was comprised of mostly peer-reviewed journal articles—such as Small Wars & Insurgencies—75% of which empirically tested models on government effectiveness relating to COIN. The lever of government power most studied in relation to COIN is the use of military forces. Dr. Radziszewski emphasized that understudied levers of government power must be examined further. These levers of power include a) economic, b) diplomatic, c) legal, and d) financial tools.
April 18, 2023
Dr. Elizabeth Radziszewski (University of Maryland START, Irregular Warfare and Conflict Assessment Group)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Dilemmas Posed by the Great Power Competition on Political Transitions and the Security Landscape in the Sahel

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Joseph Sany (United States Institute for Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment” (AFOE) Speaker Series.The US, China, and Russia are locked in a global struggle for geopolitical dominance, which is beginning to become more prevalent on the African continent. Dr. Sany stated that the competition between these powers is more geopolitical than ideological; especially in relation to past geopolitical competitions, such as the Cold War. The three great powers are mostly interested in access to African countries’ seaports, critical minerals, and growing consumer markets. How they build their political relationships is driven by their perception of the continent. The US perceives Africa as a source of potential security threats and as a weak link in a chain of allies and partners, seeking to increase countries’ stability through aid. China views Africa as a land of economic opportunities, looking to grow political connections through trade. Russia views Africa as a group of countries seeking decolonization, fueling nationalistic movements through the arms trade. All three countries have made high-level political visits a regular tool for geopolitical growth, showing African countries that they are serious about political engagement. Also, Dr. Sany commented that recent shifts in US political doctrine shows a shift away from the US’ long-held opinion of the African continent as continent made up of security threats.
March 30, 2023
Dr. Joseph Sany (US Institute of Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate-linked Mobility in Africa: Opportunities and Threats

Climate change is forcing Africans from their communities as local resources and economic opportunities dry up. The African continent produces only 3% of global Co2 emissions; however, it suffers the most from the resulting climate change effects. Climate change effects on the African continent are forcing short-term intra-regional and inter-regional climate migration across Africa. The misleading perception of climate-migrants fleeing Africa is causing countries in Europe and other regions to create reactionary and protectionary immigration policies, stated Dr. Mbiyozo. This intra-continental migration will continue to increase as global warming and climate change affects intensify and resources become more scarce. There could be more than 85 million internal climate-related migrants if the average global temperature increases by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Not all Africans being affected by climate change are able to move to communities with better access to the necessary resources. Many Africans—especially women—are caught in the poverty trap, making them immobile.
February 15, 2023
Dr. Aimee-Noël Mbiyozo (Senior Migration Researcher, Institute for Security Studies, Africa)
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SMA Speaker Series

Why Extremist Insurgencies Spread: Insights from the Sahel

Violent extremist organizations (VEOs) operating in the Sahel have perpetrated long-lasting insurgencies for more than a decade, causing widespread loss of life and regional instability. These insurgencies have also weakened regional governments’ ability to provide basic goods and services to their citizens. Dr. Boukhars stated that West African states are preparing for their own insurgencies, blaming their proximity to the Sahel region and the worsening insecurity and violent extremism there. He emphasized that a contributing factor to the contagion of violent extremism in Africa is countries’ unwillingness to be introspective. States frequently blame their stability issues on their proximity to others with existing insurgencies. However, internal dynamics that weaken government trust and aggravate social grievances are strong antecedents of insurgencies themselves. Efforts by governments to cut the financial flows of VEOs (e.g., closing certain markets and restricting the movements of pastoralists), for example, usually hurt their own civilians’ livelihoods.
January 10, 2023
Dr. Anouar Boukhars (Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University; McDaniel College)
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SMA Speaker Series

Lost Seoul? Assessing Pyongyang's Other Deterrent

North Korea poses many military threats to its neighbor, South Korea, including a massive artillery barrage on its capital city, Seoul. A conventional artillery barrage would destroy infrastructure and threaten the lives of civilians living in the metropolitan area. Dr. Press and Dr. Anderson built a model, mapping the loss of civilian life during three specific scenarios: a) a surprise attack by North Korea during peacetime, b) a North Korean attack during a military crisis, and c) a preemptive US and South Korean attack. To determine the total loss of civilian casualties, the model considers the known number of North Korean artillery batteries, their predicted rate of fire, and their predicted overall effectiveness among other variables. Dr. Press estimated that North Korea has around 300 artillery batteries that can currently bombard Seoul.
November 29, 2022
Anderson, N. (Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University); Press, D. (Dartmouth College)
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SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Exploitable Conditions in the 21st Century Strategic Environment

The creation of a computational model that encapsulates the increasingly complex and overwhelming world as multiple systems that can be measured empirically could have strong implications for civilian and military decision makers. NSI Inc. and SMA are currently working on such a model that is expanding on prior research conducted by TRADOC G-2. NSI has expanded on TRADOC’s original 24 exploitable conditions to create the Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) as part of the Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project for the US Joint Staff. Dr. Kuznar stated that while GECM is supported by a large corpus of qualitative research, a computational model has been built to empirically test it through network and system dynamics. GECM contains 17 subsystems that are comprised of 124 nodes and 829 edges where nodes connect. This model is the starting point for all of NSI’s research during the AFOE project.
November 30, 2022
Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace

Wars throughout history have skewed peoples’ beliefs on the likelihood of states going to war with each other. The number and frequencies of wars in the past have made it a commonly held belief that states are likely to go to war. However, state leaders are more likely to avoid military conflict, using it as only a last resort. For example, India accidentally fired a missile into its generational rival, Pakistan, earlier this year, but managed to avoid war. Dr. Blattman emphasized that countries avoid military conflict because war is costly and ruinous; especially between two nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan. He identified five reasons why states sometimes ignore war’s costly nature: 1) unaccountable leaders, 2) ideological leaders, 3) leaders’ and their advisors’ biases, 4) uncertainty of a war’s costliness, and 5) the lack of trust between states to commit to a diplomatic deal.
October 18, 2022
Dr. Christopher Blattman (Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies, Pearson Institute and Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resilience in the Context of Conflict Dynamics and International Public Opinion

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.
September 28, 2022
Polyak, M. (President, Ipsos, North America Analytics); Kagan, F. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Climate Change and Food Security in Africa: From the Continent to the Local

Climate change is having adverse effects throughout Sub-Saharan Africa—especially on pastoralist communities. As climate change continues to increase surface temperatures, increase temperature extremes, and make marine heat waves more frequent, extreme precipitation and drought events will occur more frequently. Extreme precipitation and drought will likely exacerbate the region’s widespread food insecurity. Further food insecurity has long reaching affects, including strength of governance and adult literacy. Twenty-one percent of Africans are already suffering from malnutrition. Furthermore, the growing variability in precipitation and drought affects pastoralists’ access to water, which is an extremely important resource to their livelihood. Professor Galvin mentioned Kenya as an example for how important pastoralism can be to a country. Kenya is comprised of 80% rangelands that supports 10 million people. Pastoralism is responsible for 10%-to-13% of Kenya’s GDP.
September 23, 2022
Professor Kathleen Galvin (University Distinguished Professor, Department of Anthropology and Geography & Director, The Africa Center, Colorado State University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Capitalizing on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to Advance Mutual US-Africa Prosperity

Despite being considered economically hopeless during the mid-2000s, African countries and their trade have grown dramatically in recent years, attracting attention from China and other international actors. This vast economic growth led African countries to create the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). AfCTA—which was officially signed in 2021—includes 55 member states and is the second largest free trade organization in the world behind the World Trade Organization. Professor Signé commented that several factors exponentially increasing African trade include: growing household consumption of goods, fast-paced urbanization, many cellphone users, and Africa’s growing share of the global population. While there are many positive indicators for economic growth and inter-continental African trade, AfCTA faces several serious barriers to economic and trade growth.
September 14, 2022
Professor Landry Signé (Associate International/Defense Researcher, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Towards a Third Nuclear Age?

The world is undergoing an era of nuclear transition while the mechanisms normally used to control these transitions are being placed under stress. Moreover, technological, geopolitical, and normative changes can influence the nuclear ecosystem and how actors handle nuclear threats and understand nuclear technology. Mr. Futter argued that this nuclear transition is a global and multifaceted phenomenon. He separated nuclear transitions into three-time frames: a) the first nuclear age (1945-1990), b) the second nuclear age (1990s-2014), and c) the third nuclear age (2018-present). These ages are defined by actors’ policy choices and the number of actors acquiring nuclear power.
September 8, 2022
Futter, A. (Professor of International Politics, University of Leicester, UK)
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SMA Speaker Series

Misinformation in Africa: An Overview of Current and Future Research

There is an increasing global concern relating to information disorder, including its effects on the Global South. Information disorder, as defined by the speakers, includes misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation. Much of the conversation surrounding information disorder focuses on social media; however, it is not a new phenomenon and has been historically prevalent in newspapers, television, and other forms of legacy media. Prof. Wasserman added that popular cultural forms of communication, like music and satire, have even fulfilled the journalistic function for some people, undermining the power of traditional journalism media even further.
October 11, 2022
Professor Herman Wasserman (University of Cape Town, South Africa) and Dr. Dani Madrid-Morales (University of Sheffield)
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SMA Speaker Series

Living Through the End of the World

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics) as part of its SMA “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment” (AFOE) Speaker Series.
July 12, 2022
Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics)
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SMA Speaker Series

Stabilizing Great Power Rivalries

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) and Dr. Samuel Charap (RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM/INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
March 3, 2022
Dr. Michael Mazarr and Dr. Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

The Uses and Limits of US Leverage in Fragile States

The research team from RAND examined several cases of political stabilization in countries following civil war to predict the likelihood of whether a state will return to violence after peace in the future.
August 31, 2021
Stephen Watts and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion

Please join SMA for its second SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion: a two-hour companion event to our recently released SMA Perspectives volume, US versus China: Promoting “Constructive Competition” to Avoid “Destructive Competition.” The discussion will feature a panel discussion among several of the paper’s contributors, drawing out key insights from, and connections between, the chapters.
November 16, 2021
Todd Veazie and Dr. Hriar “Doc” Cabayan
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SMA Speaker Series

What Just Happened in Afghanistan?

The Taliban was able to retake Afghanistan because of several factors including: a) grievances against the Afghan Central Government by its citizens, b) the Taliban’s ability to launch military operations from the Afghan-Pakistan border, c) the military failures of Afghanistan’s National Security Force (ANSF), and d) the Taliban’s religious connection to Afghanistan’s population.
September 14, 2021
Dr. Jonathan Schroden
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SMA Speaker Series

Did Globalization Go Too Far?

The economic trend of globalization and the rapid development of global logistics which developed during last four decades will likely slow or even digress.
September 14, 2021
Dr. Paul Krugman
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SMA Speaker Series

The Delicate Balance of Survivability: New Insights from Game Theory on How Missile Defense and Counterforce Impact Strategic Stability and Deterrence

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Benjamin Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) and Dr. Braden Soper (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series.
September 2, 2021
Benjamin Bahney and Braden Soper
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SMA Speaker Series

Will the Coronavirus Fuel Conflict? Forecasting COVID-related State Fragility

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Oliver Kaplan (University of Denver) and Dr. Jonathan Moyer (University of Denver) as part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Dr. Kaplan and Dr. Moyer presented their research on how the COVID-19 pandemic and its second-, third-, and fourth-order effects may increase the probability of armed internal conflict. Dr. Kaplan predicted that there will be a 56% increase in conflicts through 2022 (approximately 13 additional conflicts), most of which will be concentrated in Africa, South America, and/or Central Asia. Additionally, Dr. Kaplan stated that different states will experience instability for different reasons and with different causal processes. He further explained that COVID-19 has provided a challenging environment of increased poverty, weakened states, and health issues that makes armed conflict more likely and exacerbates the effects of current ongoing conflicts. Dr. Kaplan then presented his and Dr. Moyer’s findings on overall post-pandemic global fragility from 2020-2022, highlighting that countries experiencing armed conflict in 2018 will continue to remain unstable due to the aftermath of COVID-19. Their findings also showed an increased probability of conflicts igniting in certain regions (Africa, in particular) as a result of the pandemic, all of which were calculated using a political instability task force dataset that categorizes revolutionary and ethnic wars. Next, Dr. Moyer discussed the model he and Dr. Kaplan used in their research­—the International Futures Model—in further detail. Through his research, Dr. Moyer identified macro-level indicators that anticipate internal conflicts, including GDP, mixed regimes, states discrimination, and trade. These indicators play into the International Futures Model, which simulates global development at a national level and displays how long-term development patterns work. The model that Dr. Moyer displayed during this brief shows the dynamic effects across health, government, and demographic systems, while contrasting pre-COVID and post-COVID growth rates, as well. He then emphasized this tool’s usefulness in broadening a state’s perspective and drawing it away from narrow probabilistic models in order to better understand and anticipate the drivers of state fragility. Next, Dr. Kaplan expanded on the quantitative part of his and Dr. Moyer’s research and the results of 50 cases studies they examined on fragility conflicts. Their results concluded that “economic stability and challenges” was the most frequently cited explanation for state fragility, along with “horizontal inequality” and “international intervention.” Dr. Kaplan also cited some real-world examples to show how his and Dr. Moyer’s model can be useful when analyzing various conflicts, including the ongoing crisis in Yemen and the recent explosion in Lebanon. To conclude, Dr. Kaplan provided specific policy recommendations for how to mitigate the pandemic now and prevent conflicts in the future, including funding the World Health Organization (WHO) to address first-order effects, tailoring COVID-19 response to higher-risk countries, and addressing “sparks” that could ignite COVID-related conflicts before they occur.
September 4, 2020
Oliver Kaplan and Jonathan Moyer
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—The Gulf and Egypt

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Population Dynamics Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Weston Aviles (NSI), Dr. Marco Ehrl (Kunztown University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. Howard Lee (US Army TRADOC), AND Dr. Sabrina Polansky (NSI).At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study in August 2019 to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. CENTCOM asked SMA research teams to consider how drivers of instability in the region—to include long-term internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for black swan scenarios—could be mitigated across PMESII levers of national power.
March 31, 2020
Weston Aviles, Dr. Marco Ehrl, Robert Hinck, and Dr. Sabrina Polansky
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SMA Speaker Series

Machine Learning in Practice: Local Population Data to Anticipate Instability

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Dustin Homer (Fraym) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Mr. Homer began by introducing the mission of Fraym, which is to understand local human populations around the world by mapping local communities and determining the socioeconomic breakdown of the people that live there. Fraym uses machine learning to collect data and map behaviors, ethnolinguistic characteristics, economic situations, and demographics of a population to the accuracy of 1 sq km. Mr. Homer stated that it is critically important to understand the people in these local communities, not only to determine how to engage with them from a security perspective, but also to anticipate and predict specific risks in these areas. This localized population insight is critical for strategic planning, anticipatory intelligence analysis, operational preparation, and information operations. Mr. Homer then discussed Fraym’s methodology. He explained how they collect and acquire data, harmonize the data so it is workable, and then use machine learning to geotag and sort the data. The final product provides geospatial insight to what would normally just be graphs and charts. For the second half of his presentation, Mr. Homer provided specific examples of Fraym’s work that, in practice, could be applicable to the defense and national security communities. The first example he used related to anticipating Boko Haram activity in Nigeria. Fraym’s map charted the economy, land/transportation use, water supply, and communication and media access, among other things. Using this information, Fraym was able to determine the risk of Boko Haram violence with 90% accuracy. Mr. Homer emphasized that this is not just a population density map; the data used to produce the map can help one identify the main drivers and influence factors for these activities, such as economic inequality or access to public services. He added that looking at youth unemployment at a local level, as Fraym did with Boko Haram in Nigeria, can help predict influences for extremist group recruitment. Another example Mr. Homer provided was the economic drivers of unrest in Mali, which contains an epicenter for foreign military involvement and has a risk of increased jihadist attacks. By charting how economic inequality changed over time, Fraym was able to compare the decline in upper/middle class wealth with the corresponding decline in civilians’ satisfaction with their government. Mr. Homer stated that displaying data in this way helps align economic and social perspectives and defense and national security practitioners understand why instability increases in specific areas. Finally, Mr. Homer stated that Fraym’s reach can assist defense and national security practitioners by adding context to situations in strategic regions and explaining the behavior of geopolitical competitors.
July 24, 2020
Dustin Homer
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SMA Speaker Series

The Geopolitical Second Wave

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Tom McTague (The Atlantic) as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Mr. McTague’s presentation expanded on his article in The Atlantic, published in May 2020, entitled “The Pandemic’s Geopolitical Aftershocks Are Coming.”
July 14, 2020
Tom McTague
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SMA Speaker Series

A Stable Nuclear Future? The Impact of Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Michael Horowitz (University of Pennsylvania) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. Dr. Horowitz began by explaining how nuclear technologies are shaping global politics. He used the global telegraph program, the Cuban missile crisis, the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, and the Chinese proliferation of drones as examples. He then focused on automation, autonomy, and artificial intelligence (AI). Dr. Horowitz defined AI as “the use of computers to simulate human behavior that requires intelligence.” AI is also broad, multi-purpose, dual use, and has a low barrier to entry. There are various methods of AI (e.g., symbolic vs. connectionist, machine learning, neural networks) and types of AI (e.g., narrow, general intelligence, superintelligence). Furthermore, AI is an enabler rather than a weapon. AI can direct physical objects, process data, and perform overall information management, but it is not a gun, nor is it a plane. The implication of this is that AI can be used for much broader purposes than military technologies. Next, Dr. Horowitz explained that individuals pursue autonomy and AI for their speed, precision, bandwidth/hacking capabilities, and decision making assistance. AI also has its downsides, however. Autonomous systems can be “brittle” (i.e., limited in terms of their potential areas of operation and requiring an immense amount of training). One must be weary of automation bias and trusting machines/algorithms too much to avoid making mistakes as well. Dr. Horowitz added that if a nation is already confident in its second-strike capabilities, over-trusting a machine is not necessarily worth the brittleness risks.
March 18, 2020
Michael Horowitz
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SMA Speaker Series

Hypersonic Weapons and Strategic Stability

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dean Wilkening (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. During his brief, Dr. Wilkening spoke about hypersonic weapons, crisis instability, and arms race instability. He began by defining ‘crisis instability’ as any action that makes escalation (across the nuclear threshold) harder to control and significantly reduces the effectiveness of a major power’s nuclear deterrent. He then defined ‘arms race instability’ as any action that stimulates an action-reaction arms competition. Dr. Wilkening proceeded to introduce hypersonic vehicles into the discussion. He classified ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, and hypersonic cruise missiles as hypersonic weapons and highlighted two main missions for US hypersonic weapons: 1) penetrate advanced integrated air defense systems and 2) hold time-critical targets at risk. These uses of hypersonic weapons, however, can lead to arms race instability and/or crisis instability. Dr. Wilkening explained that arms race instability (and inadvertent escalation) could result from Russia and/or China modernizing their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), investing in alternatives, or launching on warning or under attack. Crisis instability (and inadvertent escalation) could result from a compressed timeline, leading to less careful decision making, misperceptions, misunderstandings, miscommunication, and/or an increased chance for accidental or unauthorized attacks. Nuclear, warhead, and target ambiguity also play a role in making attack assessment difficult when performing hypersonic maneuvers. Lastly, Dr. Wilkening explained that the choice to use “long-range” or “tactical” weapons could lead to false perceptions of escalation. To conclude, Dr. Wilkening discussed how strategic instability can be avoided and presented a series of questions to ponder regarding to hypersonic weapons and strategic stability, including: 1) Will hypersonic weapons lead to offense dominance in strike warfare?; 2) How should the US balance the demands of conventional warfare with the need to maintain strategic stability with Russia and China?; and 3) How much strategic warning is prudent to assume for conflicts with Russia and China?
January 15, 2020
Dean A. Wilkening
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SMA Speaker Series

Iraqi Stability and the Impacts of Recent US-Iranian Tensions

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Christine van den Toorn (Iraq Fund for Higher Education (IFHE)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Ms. van den Toorn’s presentation focused on Iraqi stability and US-Iraq relations, in light of the Iraqi protest movement and US-Iranian escalations. She began by providing an overview of the Iraqi protest movement, highlighting that the Shia-centric, post-2003 order in Iraq is over. This shift towards a new order began in 2015 when the protests began, and since then, the movement has picked up speed and culminated. Moreover, according to Ms. van den Toorn, there are now indications of widespread discontent and a rejection of the current political order and elite. She stated that a range of socio-economic groups and ethnic groups are participating in the movement. Furthermore, there is a strong silent majority that supports the protestors’ ideals and goals, including a complete overhaul of the Iraqi system of governance, as well. Ms. van den Toorn then expressed her belief that this is a positive movement that could lead to a more stable, prosperous, democratic Iraq. This large group of protestors, she explained, are not only seeking jobs, education, a better life, and more economic opportunities, but they are also seeking a homeland and an entirely new political order, free from the current class of elites, who have not accepted blame or responsibility for the lack of employment and economic opportunities. The protestors also want the current political elites to accept accountability for the violence against protestors. Ms. van den Toorn proceeded to discuss how the recent airline strike in Iran and the death of Qassem Soleimani have caused the protest movement to come to a temporary halt. Despite these setbacks, she expressed confidence that these protests will continue. To conclude, Ms. van den Toorn spoke about how the US can assist Iraq’s movement towards reform. She stated that ultimately, US engagement in Iraq is beneficial for both parties, though there is a lack of trust in the US’s provision of continued assistance. Ms. van den Toorn stressed that the US must remain a stable ally in order for a more stable, US-allied, prosperous Iraq to emerge as a result of the protest movements. Although US-Iranian tensions are indeed a setback, an opportunity for positive change in Iraq still remains.
January 14, 2020
Christine van den Toorn
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SMA Speaker Series

The Drivers of Grievance and Unrest in the World’s Populations: Understanding Instability, Terrorism, and Migration

During his presentation, Dr. Kuznar discussed his team’s findings regarding the drivers of grievance and unrest among the world’s populations, particularly as they relate to instability, terrorism, and migration. He first spoke about the primary inspiration for his team’s research: SMA’s “Age of Disruption” white paper. This white paper suggests that populations are key battlefields in global power competition, as great powers vie for the allegiance of populations, manipulate the grievances of these populations, and have objectives that can be frustrated by social unrest among these populations. He also stated that the Political Instability Task Force’s (PITF) work on social unrest events and predicting instability inspired his team’s work as well. Next, Dr. Kuznar conveyed that the purpose of NSI’s aggrieved populations project was to anticipate the operational environment from 2019 to 2029 by identifying emerging regional and non-state challenges. This effort was broken up into two phases: a global analysis phase and a country-specific analysis phase. He then presented a notional graph depicting the distribution of social status and wealth of a typical society and explained the concepts of risk aversion and risk acceptance. For the remainder of his brief, Dr. Kuznar discussed his team’s results, beginning with those from his team’s global study, which included the following: 1) Political instability is driven by hunger, risk acceptant elites, the interaction of fuel export and corruption, weak democracy, mountainous terrain, economic isolation, and ethnic division; and 2) migration from undeveloped countries is driven by hunger, a youth bulge, homicide, and political oppression. He concluded by discussing the results of their country-specific study, which included the following: 1) Countries with low inequality, such as Finland, are stable; 2) countries with unusually high levels of inequality, such as Honduras and South Africa, are characterized by extremely high levels of interpersonal violence; and 3) agrarian countries have extremely high levels of inequality and consequently experience unrest in rural areas, which in turn is exacerbated by rural/urban inequalities (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Honduras, Nigeria, and Ethiopia are good examples).
December 20, 2019
Lawrence A. Kuznar
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Prevention Project: Assessing the Role of Foreign Assistance in Preventing Violent Conflict in Fragile States

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Mr. Peter Quaranto (US Department of State Office of US Foreign Assistance Resources) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. To begin, Mr. Quaranto stated that the US and its international partners provide over $70 billion of resources to conflict-afflicted states per year. He then explained that the Strategic Prevention Project (SPP) focuses on stabilization in these highly conflict-afflicted states and also looks at states that may face future conflict and instability. The SPP has focused on three key research questions: 1) Under what circumstances does foreign assistance best contribute to the goal of making fragile states more secure and resilient against risks of violent conflict and instability?; 2) How can we measure the extent to which foreign assistance being provided to fragile states is contributing to this goal?; and 3) What reforms within the US and within partner governments would enable a greater proportion of foreign assistance to fragile states to contribute to this goal (or at least not inhibit it)? He stated that the SPP believes that the US needs to better utilize its resources and reduce its costs, achieve better results in countering transnational threats, and place an increasing focus on creating a competitive advantage for itself and for its partners in great power competition. To explore this assumption, the SPP conducted a literature review and interviewed over 100 experts on best practices for preventing conflict and instability in fragile states. The SPP also conducted a mixed-method pattern analysis of historic assistance spending for 11 fragile countries. Mr. Quaranto discussed the SPP’s findings, including the importance of 1) promoting inclusive and just political systems that foster social cohesion, 2) increasing institutions’ resilience to shocks and external threats, 3) promoting pro-peace constituencies, 4) recognizing that every context and country is unique, and 5) recognizing that a significant proportion of foreign assistance to fragile states has been devoted to economic growth, health, education and social services, with no stated links to prevention. To conclude, Mr. Quaranto provided five recommendations for US aid providers: 1) Establish agreed-upon principles for strategic prevention; 2) Apply strategic prevention principles across assistance planning and implementation; 3) Promote greater coherence between assistance and diplomacy for strategic prevention; 4) Mobilize data to track strategic prevention assistance in fragile states; and 5) Engage Congress and other donors to augment strategic prevention programming.
September 3, 2019
Peter Quaranto
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SMA Speaker Series

The United States, Iran, and the Politics of the JCPOA

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Ali Ansari (University of St. Andrews / Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Professor Ansari first stated that some of the issues related to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are a result of the negotiation process itself. He explained that the US sees the election of Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, as an important staging post in the relationship between the US and Iran. However, to most Iranians, other factors still inhibit the development of this relationship. In 2009, when the JCPOA was being negotiated, the crisis following the Iranian presidential election brought forth serious divisions between the elite and Iranian citizens.
August 7, 2019
Ali M Ansari
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SMA Speaker Series

Iran's Military Strategy

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Gawdat Bahgat (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Bahgat spoke about the continuous buildup of Iran’s missile program since the 1970s. He first characterized the program, highlighting that it is the largest and most diverse missile program in the Middle East, though it is not the most lethal. He further stated that, despite the pressure that the US and Europe have been putting on Iran to cease this buildup, Iran has continued its efforts with little hesitation. According to Dr. Bahgat, Iran’s unwillingness to abandon its missile program is a result of its belief that the Islamic Republic cannot exist without its missile program. This is a matter of Iran’s survival
June 18, 2019
Dr. Gawdat Bahgat
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SMA Speaker Series

The Gallup World Poll: A Listening Machine for the World

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Jerry Hansen (Gallup) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Hansen discussed Gallup’s ongoing work and highlighted its World Poll initiative.
March 13, 2019
Hansen, J. (Gallup)
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SMA Speaker Series

"Stability, Reconciliation & Reintegration: Research Findings" Panel Discussion

This SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) panel reviewed findings from research examining stability, reconciliation, and reintegration in Afghanistan. Dr. Cooley analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media to gauge their orientation toward potential reconciliation scenarios.
February 15, 2019
Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University); Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.); Dr. John Stevenson (NSI, Inc.); Dr. Plamen Petrov (BBN Technologies, Raytheon); Dr. Karin Johnston (U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations); Mr. Sher Jan Ahmadzai (University of Nebraska at Omaha)
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SMA Speaker Series

"Negotiated Settlement in Afghanistan: Elements of a Grand Bargain" Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Presenters included Mr. James Krakar (US Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) G27 Models and Simulations Branch), Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University), Mr. Vern Liebl (US Marine Corps University, Center for Advanced Operational and Culture Learning), Mr. Michael Logan (University of Nebraska at Omaha), and Dr. Craig Whiteside (Naval War College at the Naval Postgraduate School).
February 10, 2019
Krakar, J. (US Training and Doctrine Command G27 Models and Simulations Branch); Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron and Case Western Reserve University); Liebl, V. (US Marine Corps University, Center for Advanced Operational and Culture Learning); Logan, M. (University of Nebraska at Omaha); Whiteside, C. (Naval War College at the Naval Postgraduate School)
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Outcomes on the Korean Peninsula: Effort Results and Primary Findings

To begin the presentation, Dr. Astorino-Courtois explained the methodology behind NSI’s Interest-Resolve-Capability (IRC) analysis, outlined the results and primary findings, and highlighted the regional dynamics that emerged during the analysis.
November 20, 2018
Dr. Astorino-Courtois
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SMA Speaker Series

Normalizing the US-DPRK Relations: Nuclear Weapons and Political Changes in Pyongyang

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jongseok Woo (University of South Florida) as a part of its SMA Korea Strategic Outcomes Speaker Series.
November 8, 2018
Dr. Jongseok Woo (University of South Florida)
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SMA Speaker Series

Taliban Leadership: The Science of Organizational Membership

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Gina Ligon (University of Nebraska, Omaha) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. During her presentation, Dr. Ligon addressed the following question: “What are the drivers of instability and buffers against it in Afghanistan?”
September 21, 2018
Ligon, G. (University of Nebraska, Omaha)
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SMA Speaker Series

Imran Khan and Pakistan’s Role in a Potential Grand Bargain

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Karl Kaltenthaler (University of Akron) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series.
August 29, 2018
Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron)
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SMA Speaker Series

Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. David Young (Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction [SIGAR]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Mr. Young began his presentation by defining stabilization and providing an overview of his recent project for SIGAR. He discussed the two critical decisions that contributed to the failure of USAID and DoD stabilization efforts in Afghanistan: “prioritizing the most insecure districts first” and “drawing down forces and civilians on calendar-based timelines rather than conditions-based timelines.” He then detailed the SIGAR project’s seven primary findings and ten distinct lessons learned. To conclude his brief, Mr. Young provided several recommendations regarding future stabilization efforts and planning.
August 1, 2018
David H. Young
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) of Stability Pathways in Afghanistan- Phase I Insights

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. The speakers for this panel discussion included Ms. Sarah Canna (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College), Mr. James Krakar (USARMY TRADOC), and Dr. Sabrina Pagano (NSI, Inc.). Ms. Canna provided a brief description of Phase I of the most recent CENTCOM Reach Back effort, which focuses on South Asia and looks at a variety of future stability outcomes for Afghanistan. Mr. Krakar then discussed the TRADOC G-27 Modeling & Simulation Branch’s (i.e. Athena Simulation) contributions to the effort, highlighting the simulation’s four major findings. Next, Dr. Pagano spoke about NSI’s Pathways model, which evaluates which of several examined pathways Afghanistan is currently on, where it is headed, and what drivers, buffers, and barriers to stability are involved. Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck proceeded to discuss their main findings after examining Chinese and Russian news media coverage related to security and stability in Afghanistan. Ms. Canna concluded the session by briefly speaking about NSI’s initial Interest, Resolve, and Capability (IRC) analysis for Afghanistan.
July 20, 2018
Dr. Skye Cooley, Dr. Robert Hinck, James Krakar, and Dr. Sabrina Pagano
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SMA Speaker Series

Afghanistan: Devolution and 'Good' Corruption

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Sarah Chayes (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace [CEIP]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. During her discussion, Ms. Chayes provided insights on whether there is ‘good’ corruption in Afghanistan and how corruption is understood there, based on her 10 years of experience in Kandahar. She also described how Afghans responded when she asked what corruption meant to them. Moreover, she emphasized that the degree to which ordinary citizens feel like they have input into the decision-making process and real checks on power are critical, as opposed to devolution, which would not solve the corruption problem. Ms. Chayes concluded the session by discussing how decisions are made in Afghanistan, how the Soviet invasion disrupted and altered the its former democratic structure, and how the majority of Afghanistan’s problems resulted from external actors’ involvement as opposed to internal issues.
July 12, 2018
Sarah Chayes
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SMA Speaker Series

Local and Regional Dynamics of Bringing Stability to Afghanistan

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Sher Jan Ahmadzai (University of Nebraska at Omaha) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. During this discussion, Mr. Ahmadzai stated that there are both internal and external factors that contribute to instability in Afghanistan (all of which he discussed in detail). These internal factors include Afghanistan’s system of governance, peace efforts and reconciliation, warlords, and social justice among all groups, while the external factors include neighboring countries (i.e. Pakistan, Russia, Iran, China, India, NATO, and the US). Mr. Ahmadzai also explained what Afghan leadership can do internally and what stakeholders can do externally to achieve stability in Afghanistan.
July 10, 2018
Sher Jan Ahmadzai
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SMA Speaker Series

Can Pakistan be Converted from a Net Spoiler to a Net Enabler of Afghan Stability?

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Linda Robinson (RAND) and Ms. Laurel Miller (RAND) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Ms. Miller spoke about how the United States can gain greater cooperation from Pakistan, which, she argues, is critical for achieving US objectives in Afghanistan. She discussed why Pakistan has resisted pressure to stop hedging against the US strategy in Afghanistan, and she outlined the options and constraints that would be involved if the US exercised leverage. Ms. Miller also explained how Pakistan might be convinced that collaboration with the United States would be preferable to hedging. Ms. Robinson concluded the session by offering potential “carrots and sticks” that could be used to entice cooperation from Pakistan.
July 13, 2018
Laurel Miller and Linda Robinson
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SMA Speaker Series

A Peace Deal For Afghanistan: Views of the Key Parties

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Johnny Walsh (United States Institute of Peace [USIP]) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Mr. Walsh discussed what key issues would be covered if the involved parties in Afghanistan were to work towards drafting an agreement. He stated that five fronts would need to be addressed: 1) constitutional review, 2) the distribution of political power, 3) the fate of Taliban fighters and detainees, 4) local security and how it can be sustained in areas in which the Taliban is strong, and 5) the role of international forces in Afghanistan. He then presented his preliminary findings after conducting interviews with Afghan leaders, or “bond respondents,” on each of these topics, along with USIP’s research findings, which outline Taliban fighters’ and commanders’ views on the same topics.
July 12, 2018
Johnny Walsh
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SMA Speaker Series

Comparisons of News Presentations of Afghanistan in Russian and Chinese Media

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) and Dr. Robert Hinck (Monmouth College) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. As part of the CENTCOM Reach Back effort, Dr. Cooley and Dr. Hinck identified what major narratives about Afghanistan are being disseminated to targeted populations through public media coverage. Dr. Cooley discussed his primary findings after assessing Russian news media content regarding stability efforts in Afghanistan, while Dr. Hinck presented his insights gained while looking at Chinese news media content. They outlined the three principle thematic narratives propagated in each country and explained what Russian and Chinese media think about a potential “grand bargain” in Afghanistan. They also called attention to their most significant take-away, which was that there was both a lack of firmly-established strategic narratives and an infrequency of media coverage on the subject.
July 5, 2018
Robert Hinck and Skye Cooley
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SMA Speaker Series

US Approach to Stabilization and Application to Afghanistan Strategy

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Linda Robinson (RAND) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. Ms. Robinson focused on her DOD-sponsored RAND study on stabilization entitled “Finding the Right Balance: DOD Roles in Stabilization,” as well as its application to US policy and Afghanistan and South Asia strategy. The report concluded that a re-scoping of DOD policies would likely provide a better approach towards stabilization than the current one and affirmed the importance of supporting organic versus imposed processes. Furthermore, she spoke about how RAND’s evaluation of past experiences, current capability, and current capacity of stabilization efforts concluded that the DOD should “prioritize stabilization as a mission but focus on and improve its performance in three areas.” These three areas are: prioritizing security stability functions; providing support to other stability functions; and performing cross-cutting informational, coordination, and physical support roles. Ms. Robinson proceeded to outline the report’s other key findings and recommended revisions to DOD stabilization policy. She concluded the session by explaining the evolution of DOD stabilization policy and the application of these developments and findings to South Asia strategy.
June 20, 2018
Linda Robinson
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Panel Discussion

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by BG (Ret.) Feroz Khan (NPS), AMB Hamdullah Mohib (Afghan Ambassador to the United States), Dr. Afshon Ostovar (NPS), Dr. Christopher Twomey (NPS), and moderator, Dr. Hy Rothstein (NPS) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM (Afghanistan) Speaker Series. AMB Mohib first provided his insights on the Afghan peace process and emphasized that US decision makers must keep in mind that the Afghanistan we are dealing with today is not the Afghanistan we dealt with in 2001 or even in 2013. BG (Ret.) Khan then offered a Pakistani perspective and clarified some of the myths and truths about Pakistan’s involvement in and views towards Afghanistan. Dr. Ostovar proceeded to discuss Iran’s interests and key issues in the region. Dr. Twomey then spoke about how China is less interested in Afghanistan than it is in Pakistan, due largely to its security rivalry with India. To conclude the discussion, the panelists commented on noteworthy points brought up during each other’s presentations.
June 13, 2018
Feroz Khan, Hamdullah Mohib, Dr. Christopher Twomey, and Dr. Afshon Ostovar
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SMA Speaker Series

Iraqi Kurdistan Politics and Erbil-Baghdad Relations After May 12 Elections

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Christine van den Toorn (American University of Iraq, Sulaimani) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During this session, Ms. Van den Toorn discussed three important takeaways from the recent election in Iraq. First, Iran’s influence is becoming both increasingly relevant and significant (e.g., Iran likely played a role in the Iraqi election campaign). Second, given the low Kurdish voter turnout and fraud allegations associated with the elections, the election results do not seem to reflect the real dynamics in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and moreover triggered a huge shift in popular Kurdish sentiment. Third, there is a serious potential for instability now in the KRG, and there likely will be continued strain on Erbil-Baghdad relations as well. Ms. Van den Toorn concluded the session by assessing what the US could do to manage the impending violence and stability in the region.
June 12, 2018
Christine van den Toorn
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Stability)

NSI Publication

Social Science to Understand Strategic Threat

During the Cold War era, the strategic threat against the US was clear. The country responded clearly with a policy toward the Soviet threat that centered on deterrence, containment, and mutually assured destruction. To enforce this policy, the US created a strategic triad composed of nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles, Trident nuclear submarines, and long-range strategic bombers. Today, however, our security environment is profoundly different.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Regime Stability in Iran: The COVID-19 Effect

Iran appears to have been hit hard by the COVID-19 virus, and there has been criticism both within and outside the country over the Iranian regime’s response. The subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question, however, do not think it likely that the pandemic will have novel direct effects on the stability of the Iranian regime, either in the short term or further out.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Internal Instability in Iran: Drivers and Regime Response

There was consensus among the subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question that the primary driver of internal instability in Iran is the dismal state of the economy.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Summary of NSI's "Assessment to Collapse in the DPRK: A NSI Pathways™ Report—Featured in Red Diamond Volume 10, Issue 1

This article was featured in Volume 10, Issue 1 of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command’s (TRADOC G2) journal, entitled Red Diamond.
Year Published:
2020
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