Deterrence and Space Warfare

Author: Dr. John Klein (Delta Solutions & Strategies, LCC)

This publication was released as part of the SMA project “21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks.” (SDF) For more information regarding this project, please click here.

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The strategy of space warfare is a subset of general warfare strategy; therefore, the ideas of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion have applicability in the space domain. Even though deterrence has a legitimate role in future space strategy, it is not the panacea for preventing conflict. History teaches that deterrence will, at times, fail due to miscalculation, uncertainty, or chance. This may also be the case for deterring acts of aggression during strategic competition in space, especially considering countries such as the US, Russia, and China have fundamentally different perspectives on deterrence, compellence, and escalation control. First, this paper details the foundations of deterrence theory and differentiates between the concepts of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion. The idea of space deterrence is also introduced. Second, the cultural and societal views of Russia and China are explored to help explain how US deterrence efforts may or may not actually affect the decision calculus of rivals. The idea of those considered “undeterrable” is highlighted, because of the implications for US space deterrence activities. Third, a synthesis of what deterrence means for the future of space warfare is summarized.