Cyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios

Speaker(s): Lin, H. (Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation & Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution, Stanford University)

Date: 27 October 2021

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Herb Lin (Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution & Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University), as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.

As the frequency and prevalence of cyber-attacks continues to increase, defending against cyber-attacks continues to increase in importance, especially relating to nuclear security. Dr. Lin commented that maintaining strong cyber defense is important because individuals who are online are constantly under attack; however, most people do not realize they are threatened because the security measures for their computers is sufficient to defend their data. Furthermore, many times people do not realize an attack has been successful until the harmful code enacts its attack sequence. Even after this occurs, it is difficult to discern the intent or real impact of the cyber-attack. Therefore, protecting computers responsible for nuclear deterrence is crucial for national security.

Because cyber security does not automatically increase a systems ability to carry out its function, it is rarely given enough attention by software developers. Dr. Lin listed five scenarios where cyber security is crucial to protecting software responsible for monitoring nuclear weaponry and keeping the information environment clear for leaders and personnel. These scenarios are: a) cyberattacks vs espionage or intelligence gathering, b) cyberattacks on ambiguous targets, c) cyberattacks on US military supply chains, d) cyberattacks as a counterforce, and e) social media’s impact on nuclear deterrence. Cyberattacks can mimic enemy missile launches, send fake messages, disable machinery, or cloud the judgement of leaders by overwhelming them with information. Dr. Lin concluded that all personnel, leaders, and decision makers must learn how to interact in an increasingly noisy and chaotic digital realm.

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