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SMA Publications (Tagged: Geopolitics)

SMA Publication

US Retain Stability in Post-Kurdish Referendum Iraq

Since the controversial September referendum for Iraqi Kurdish independence, the political stability of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and its relationship with the Iraqi government has been in crisis mode. The political uncertainty of the KRG has been clouded by the de jure resignation of President Masoud Barzani, an increase in violence and protests, and mounting economic woes. The precarious political balance between Erbil and Baghdad is not only subject to the tensions of internal Kurdish affairs, but also by the complex interests of regional and sub-state actors and the looming Iraqi parliamentary elections in May. Contributors to this response largely agree that actual Kurdish independence is very unlikely in the short-medium term and, moreover, that maintaining the territorial unity of Iraq and Kurdistan is critical to security in the region. However, contributors differ slightly on how to approach facilitating and maintaining stability in Iraq and how to balance competing interests from the KRG, sub-state actors in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, and the international community.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Part I: Characterizing the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict System

This is Part I of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. It describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. The final results are presented in a Power Point briefing.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Crimea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders prior to and during the annexation of Crimea. Putin’s leading indicators, those of Crimean leaders and the Russian-supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, are presented separately.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike. Additionally, bilateral arms control measures (norms, treaties, protocols, institutions) provide additional stability. The problem with multicountry nuclear deterrence is that there are no levels of armaments that can support stable deterrence relations among three or more adversaries; except in cases when adversaries coalesce into two alliances, in which case the system reduces to bilateral nuclear deterrence. This paper approaches this problem through formal methods and conceptualizes a solution involving an ensemble of military and politico-diplomatic strategies which, when operating as an enhanced international security regime, can mitigate the fundamental instability of the current multicountry nuclear deterrence system.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region

USPACOM requested that the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) team conduct an “Examination of future political, security, societal, and economic trends to identify where US interests are in cooperation or conflict with Chinese and other interests particularly in the East China Sea.” More specifically, USPACOM requested an examination of future political, security, societal, and economic trends; identification of where US strategic interests are in cooperation or conflict with Chinese and other interests, particularly in the East China Sea; and suggestions as to how USPACOM might best leverage opportunities when dealing with China in a “global context.” The project request also included a series of questions (see Appendix A) that, taken together represent two broad concerns.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

11th Annual SMA Conference – “A Utopian or Dystopian Future, or Merely Muddling Through?”

This Conference assessed what today we rightly or wrongly perceive as historically unprecedented changes from the perspectives of politics and history, sociology, biology, information science, and technological innovation. There is a large body of scientific work that supports the notion that human societies are complex adaptive systems with emergent properties that contain core commonalities, but the actions of which cannot be predicted with certainty. Given the properties of human cognition and social behavior, the question remains: How might nations and societies best position themselves to prepare for and manage the risks associated with rapid change under conditions of fundamental uncertainty? The conference speakers and panelists addressed these issues relevant to key domains and dimensions of global security.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region

In pregNSI participated in a large effort focused on identifying areas of strategic risk and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two decades. A rising China resides within a very dynamic Asia-Pacific region. A long list of Chinese influence and investment activities abroad together with an active military enhancement program indicate that China is positioning itself to pursue national security interests well beyond the Pacific Rim. As Chinese interests and policy objectives broaden to farther reaches of the globe there is greater likelihood that they will run up against key US international interests. The intersection of US and Chinese interests could represent either a source of conflict or opportunity for cooperation. The main question that US policy makers and planners must consider carefully is: Where and which Chinese interests are most likely to conflict with US global interests, and where may there be opportunities for cooperation? The current problem this project addressed is uncertainty about the likely trajectory of increasingly global Chinese national interests abroad and how these relate to key US interests. The primary objective was to provide decision-makers the tools to make better sense of the non-linear dynamics and feedback mechanisms at play in the complex environment in which they, and their competitors, operate in the Asia-Pacific region, and broaden the horizon of strategic thinking and inform planning.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Promoting Greater Stability in Post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 2

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? To address this question, in volume 1, we examine the drivers of legitimacy, security, and social accord for key Iraqi stakeholders. In the current volume 2, we provide an in-depth and comprehensive discussion of the key social elements and dynamics contributing to social accord, and tie the social domain to the political domain in Iraq, with accompanying implications for stability.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Prioritized Iranian Interests in the Middle East

Hoping to answer the question of how Iran prioritizes its influence and presence in the Middle East, we asked fifteen experts to list—in rank order—Iran’s key interests, how it seeks to realize those interests, and how successful it is likely to be in the next 18-24 months.1 As is evident in Figure 1, a clear majority of experts consulted identified regional hegemony as Iran’s primary regional goal.2 However, while listed only once as a top three interest, Dr. Nicholas O’Shaughnessy of the University of London argues that the primary objective of the Iranian government is the continuity of the theocracy in power in Iran. “Everything else flows from this,” he writes. Indeed, many of the other interests listed in Figure 1 could be construed as mechanisms for establishing and expanding Iran’s desire for regional hegemony and, more importantly (and implicitly), regime continuity.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Alleviating US-Iran Tensions

The US and Iran have the same types of interests — national security, international influence, economic, and domestic political—at stake in the conflicts surrounding Iraq and Syria. However, the different ways that each country currently defines these interests places them on a continuum that ranges from full accord over select regional issues to complete, zero-sum discord. This is an important point and one very pertinent to the question of alleviating US-Iran tensions: Iran and the US do not disagree on everything and national security is not always the primary issue at stake. The most promising avenue to alleviate tensions therefore may be to focus on issues on which US and Iranian interests tend to converge. However, there may be more leverage over what seem to be fully divergent interests than at first appears.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Promoting greater stability in post-ISIL Iraq, Volume 1

United States Central Command (CENTCOM) posed the following question to the Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) virtual reach back cell: What opportunities are there for USCENTCOM to shape a post-ISIL Iraq and regional security environment, promoting greater stability? Analyses of the security challenges facing post-ISIL Iraq frequently emphasize two central points. The first of these is that any security solution must address the political concerns and goals of key actors. This report is focused on providing insight into not only security factors, but also those political and social factors that have follow-on effects for the security domain. The second point is that both political interests and security interests are highly localized. We acknowledge the tremendous variation in interest groups within the social and political landscape in Iraq. At the same time, social science methodologies are oriented around making sense of such fragmentation, by looking for commonalities within and across societies. While no generalization will ever cover every possible case or variation, the common themes that are derived will represent likely scenarios. Toward this goal, we focus here on the broad ethno-sectarian divisions that are often currently in use in Iraq: Sunni, Shia, and Kurd. Where possible, we seek to specify relevant subgroups (e.g., Shia-led militia, Peshmerga, Sunni tribal elites). While we recognize that there is variation both within and even entirely outside of these groups, the discussion and insights here capture the interests and grievances of a wide segment of the Iraqi population as a whole.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter Extremism in Sunni Communities

The Sunni community is not homogenous, and contributors expressed their discomfort making broad generalizations for a number of reasons. Most Sunni Arabs still consider themselves first a citizen of their respective countries with the exception of populations in the midst of conflict like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen (anonymous). Local customs and histories result in a different experience for Sunnis in, for example, France versus Chechnya (Olidort). Furthermore, there is no single Sunni leader (like the Pope or the Ayatollah or even a senior theologian) with religious legitimacy to assert leadership over the Sunni community (Shaikh).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Population’s Positive View of ISIL

There is ample evidence that by and large Muslim populations in the MENA region and Europe do not view ISIL favorably (see QL 3). However, there are many similarities and a few significant differences among these populations regarding the credibility and salience of many of the messaging themes that ISIL espouses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Whole of Government Approach to Conflict

Not many experts were willing to tackle this problem of synchronizing whole of government planning and execution processes across the Department of Defense (DOD) and the Department of State (DoS). While there seems to be a growing acceptance that greater cooperation between DOD and DoS is essential for responding to adversaries that act like complex adaptive systems, no single governmental organ which can, through its own effort, ensure that institutionalized planning and execution cooperation occurs regularly.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Building Partner Capacity: Iraq

Question (R6.10): What can the U.S. and Coalition partners realistically do to enable Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to combat a long-term ISIS insurgency? Recognizing the enormous resources the U.S. poured into the ISF from 2003 until 2011, only to see much of the force collapse in 2014, what can we do to avoid making the same mistakes when training the ISF?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Iraq: Coalition or Bilateral Approach?

As the United States and its Coalition partners examine the situation in Iraq and Syria after a sustained military campaign against Da’esh, they face a significant inflection point regarding the nature of their engagement. In the United States, policymakers must decide whether continuing to work within the existing Coalition is preferable to normalizing the relationship between the United States and Iraq. The central question is whether the Coalition or a bilateral relationship would best ensure the region’s stability and secure Iraq’s future. A number of the respondents argued that continuing within the Coalition framework is preferable to pursuing a normalized bilateral relationship with Iraq. While there exist benefits and drawbacks of both relationships, it is important to examine the potential contributions and risks of each path for post-Da’esh stability in Iraq.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

New Iran Strategy

As battlefield successes actualize, decision makers have an opportunity to align tactical and operational policies with a strategic vision. One year into a new presidential administration offers a window wherein actors on the ground can map their plans onto the tone, intent, and objectives of the new commander- in-chief. Despite some continuity between President Trump and his predecessor’s policies, particularly as related to Iran, there remain some significant differences. A wholesale White House-initiated change of approach vis-à-vis Iran has not yet occurred, despite these differences. If no substantive changes are made, CENTCOM is well positioned to build on established success in Iraq. However, if such a change were to occur, it would require a whole-of-government approach; within this framework, CENTCOM would be able to leverage capabilities built up over the course of their engagement in Iraq.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Denying the Seeds of Future Conflict

Ambassador James Dobbins and a team from the RAND Corporation contend, “the Syria civil war is approaching, if not a conclusion, at least a hiatus that might be converted into a conclusion.”1 Major regional players—United States, Russia, and NATO—have a converging interest in ending the conflict and facilitating a stable peace, Dr. Amir Bagherpour of giStrat argues. However, despite an emerging shared preference between Russia and the United States on ending the conflict in Syria, rivalry dynamics between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, and the UAE will likely have a dampening effect on peace prospects as the proxy warfare intensifies following the military defeat of Da’esh. Mr. Hassan Hassan of Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy warns that the worsening of the various conflicts in the region is still a serious possibility.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Competition Short of Armed Conflict with a Regional Power

The experts drew on a wide range of examples from US conflicts and moved beyond a focus solely on competition short of armed conflict (CSAC or “gray zone”) to other strategies or forms of competition executed by the US. The examples offered rich source material from which to extract lessons applicable to current US- Iran relations. Lessons might be learned from relations with Iran itself beginning with the Revolution to the present; the US-Soviet Cold War; the US and North Korea (1953-present); the US and Great Britain during the 19th Century, when the US was a rising regional power and Britain was a global power; the US and China during the Taiwan Straits Crisis (1954-55); US-Cuba (1959-now); the US and Venezuela (1998-present); Central America in the 1980s; and conflict in the Balkans (1991-2000). At the most basic level, these conflicts were battles over regional security or global influence (US vs. Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Great Britain, or USSR) or ideology/ideological influence (US vs. Iran, USSR, North Korea, China, Cuba, Central America, or the Balkans). By and large, the most relevant examples were those from the post WWII period.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Global Power Competition

As Russia continues to challenge United States’ power and influence around the world, its activities in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility (AOR) represent a useful lens with which to view this conflict. In Iraq and Syria, both Russia and the United States (and its Coalition) have been drawn into this layered conflict to challenge or defend the status quo with varying degrees of success and impact. While experts question whether Russia can challenge the United States globally, it can likely operate on the margins of United States interests, with a series of surgical and lower-level policy decisions. To that point, some respondents, including Edward Chow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vern Liebl of the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning at Marine Corps University, argue that they do not consider Russia a true peer and challenger of US global influence. Instead of global dominance, Russia is seeking to “marginalize US power and influence in regions they deem important to their interests” (Chow). Contributors agreed, though, that Russia is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities for growth and influence in the Middle East. This report looks at Russia’s interests, actions, and likelihood of success in challenging US global influence through these conflicts.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Strategic Implications of PRC’s Base in Djibouti

There are a number of legitimate reasons that account for China’s decision to break with decades of tradition when it established its first foreign military base in Djibouti in 2009, according to Dr. John Garver, Professor Emeritus at the China Research Center at Georgia Institute of Technology. First, China has a strong economic interest in protecting vital shipping lanes that pass through the nearby Gulf of Aden (Garver, Haddad-Fonda, Payne). Notably, China expanded its maritime security role in the northwest Indian Ocean during the 2008-9 financial crisis in North America and Europe—a time when China’s economic growth seemed “unstoppable” (Garver).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Extent of Iran’s Ability to Influence Iraqi Elections

Iraq is a parliamentary democracy and, as the April 2018 elections approach, political jockeying for votes and influence has already begun. Iraq has a unicameral house called the Council of Representatives (COR). As in other parliamentary systems, members of the ruling party or coalition choose the prime minister. So regional and domestic actors seeking to influence the election of a particular candidate for prime minister must start by ensuring its preferred political party or parties win enough seats to be in the majority.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Gulf Cooperation Council Stability & Influence

The Qatari crisis that is presently crippling the GCC has decayed logarithmically into diplomatic ultimatums and blockades, with Kuwait and Oman attempting to restore relations between Doha and the rest of the GCC. While the crisis has reached a relative standstill, the GCC is experiencing the “most severe test of the organization’s cohesion in its nearly forty-year history,” (Feierstein) and the entire affair calls into question the cohesion of the GCC and its potential to advance US interests. The GCC has been a fickle partner for US foreign policy objectives in the past and with political infighting and gridlock, Iranian encroachment, and a host of domestic issues, the GCC appears to be on the cusp of a historic transformation. All contributors in this report suggest that Iran is the primary cause of GCC discord and emphasize different causes and effects, as well as different paths of pursuing policy conducive to American interests.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Evolution of US Foreign Policy in Middle East

US foreign policy makers struggle to find the right balance in supporting US interests in the Middle East (Abdulla, Bahgat, DeGennaro, Liebl, Maye, Rogers, Serwer, Styszynski). The unbalanced policies, those focusing solely on defense or certain allied interests, while marginalizing diplomacy and development, are diminishing trust in the US and decreasing its influence—challenging US ability to maintain global stability.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Risks of Security Outpacing Diplomacy in Syria & Iraq

Our experts noted that we cannot say with certainty what the future security environment will look like in the Middle East. The region “is highly fluid. And fluidity means that alliances are temporary and that it’s very difficult to draw any long-term or even medium-term perspectives on what might happen,” Dr. Ehteshami noted. Limited visibility into the future is compounded by the sheer number of inflection points facing actors in the region as each tries to shape the environment in its favor.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Opportunities & Threats from POTUS Middle East Visit

Analysts agree the most serious threat during POTUS’s trip to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) was, in in the words of Daniel Server, “the risk of doing anything that split the GCC and weakened its will to counter Iran.” In fact, he and our other analysts believe his rhetoric triggered KSA’s regional campaign against Qatar and thereby destroyed GCC solidarity against Iran. Further, the campaign, which included the United Arab Emirates,1 Egypt, and Bahrain actually pushed Qatar, Turkey, and other stakeholders closer to Iran countering the effort.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Future of ISIS: What Experts Think Will Happen Next?

At its zenith in 2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) controlled more than 100,000 square kilometers of territory. ISIS seized control over major cities, notably Mosul and Raqqa, which contributed to increasing disorder in the Middle East. As late as 2015, the geographic reach of ISIS appeared to pose serious threats to the territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria as well as the physical safety of citizens in the region. Nonetheless, as of June 2017, estimates show that about 90% of Mosul had been liberated as Iraqi forces, in coordination with the Coalition, while they continued to regain large portions of the western part of the city. Similarly, a battle to retake Raqqa is in progress. US officials estimate that only around 2,000 ISIS fighters remain in the city, while US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Coalition forces total around 55,000 fighters. Given these developments, ISIS is likely facing the end of its territorial rule.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

GCC Nations: Impediments to Cooperation

At the time of the writing of this executive summary, the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) has experienced a diplomatic crisis with three GCC member states (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain) cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar (another GCC member state) and remaining GCC members (Kuwait and Oman) attempting to mediate. This event begs the discussion of factors and dynamics that obstruct or cripple cohesion among GCC nations and possible solutions to overcome such obstacles. A thorough understanding of the threats facing the GCC and more specifically, their limitations in responding to them, are crucial to attaining a vigorous and holistic comprehension of the Gulf region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Meaning of ISIS Defeat & Shaping Stability

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DOD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes that protect minority rights in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - May 2017

On 11 May 2017, NPS convened a panel session and discuss areas related to the 4th round of CENTCOM Reach Back Cell Questions. The speakers are listed below, and their biographies are available in Appendix A.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Panel Discussion on Iraq and Syria

This report represents the views and opinions of the participants. The report does not represent official USG policy or position. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff (JS), and jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and US Government (USG) Agencies, the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team established a virtual Reach Back Cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, has provided USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region. This Panel will discuss the main findings from the SMA Reach Back Cell.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Holistic Engagement Activities Ranking Tool (HEART)

More than ever, United States Government (USG) activities are planned and implemented in an atmosphere of shrinking budgets, high expectations and intense scrutiny at home, plus non-conventional enemies and complex operating environments abroad. In the security realm, there is little debate that the demand for cost-effective, high-impact, and transparent use of government resources requires the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DoS), and other government entities that operate oversees to work together or in complementary ways. Still, departments and their components have their own expanding missions, dwindling resources and programs to administer, making achieving unity of effort difficult. At present, there is no readily accessible process or framework that can incorporate and integrate the range of USG security-related activities abroad and that DOD planners and non-DOD practitioners might use to build common operating pictures – either within their own departments or in coordination with other departments working related activities. This deficiency increases the likelihood that what might be cost-saving efficiencies or wasteful redundancies in US security assistance and engagement programs will go unnoticed by planners and decision makers. Recognizing that US Africa Command (AFRICOM) engagement strategists and planners are in particular need of a systematic process for aligning resources and activities to strategies in the most effective and efficient ways possible, the Command J5 requested that the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team, “develop an evaluative tool to aid in prioritization and metric development for command engagement strategies.”
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Highlights From Round 1, 2, 3 Questions

ISIS will be defeated militarily. However, whether it is ultimately overcome by containment or by deploying ground forces to apply overwhelming force, the path to mitigating violent extremism in the region is a generations-long one. Military options alone are insufficient to protect US interests and stabilize the region. It will require significant strengthening of State Department and non-DoD capacity to help build inclusive political institutions and processes in Syria and Iraq. Only if these flourish will ISIS — the organization and the idea it represents — have failed and the region been put on a sustainable path to stability
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Impact of the Presence of ISIS in Africa

While the consideration of ISIS’s fate in Syria and Iraq of course adds significant value to the question of ISIS in Africa, ISIS’s next steps there appear to call upon a far broader set of considerations. Ultimately, the question of ISIS in Africa is complicated by the intricacies of local, state, and regional variation; competing factions and shifting loyalties, as well as the evolving situation in the Levant. Each of these issues could provide its own opportunity for a deep dive. As a first step, this report aims to provide an overview of the various considerations at play.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 10 Supplemental Transcripts From NPS Event

The enclosed reports discuss wide-ranging issues related to the defeat if ISIL and stabilization of Syria and Iraq supplementary to the 9-part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM grouped by theme. Series reports may be obtained from Sam Rhem in the SMA Office at samuel.d.rhem.ctr@mail.mil.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - Jan 2017

Let me go over the agenda very briefly. As I mentioned yesterday Doc, unfortunately Craig Whiteside has come down with a very nasty stomach virus so unfortunately will not be joining us today.We’ll start with Ryan Gingeras, who is a Turkey expert at the Naval Postgraduate School, and then I will follow Ryan. Then let’s have a discussion at that point, some Q&A.At which point John Arquilla and Hy Rothstein will be able to join us, and they will each speak, John on strategic narrative, development, and information operations more generally and Hy Rothstein on some of the lessons learned in Iraq when it comes to influence operations.After those two sets of comments, we can again open up discussion and Q&A. Does that sound reasonable to everyone?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Turkish Interests in Syria and Iraq

The SME contributors to this SMA Reach-back write-up argue that the recent changes in Turkish security policy (e.g., pursuit of ISIL along with the PKK; relaxing of demands for Assad’s removal; warming relations with Russia, etc.) do not necessarily indicate that Turkey’s key interests and intentions have changed. Rather, the shifts should be seen as changes in objectives or tactics that are still thoroughly consistent with Turkey’s fundamental and enduring security interests: 1) containing and ultimately eliminating Kurdish or other threats to Turkey’s internal stability; and, 2) foiling Kurdish (or others’) ambitions that threaten the integrity of Turkey’s borders. Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence David Gompert (USNA, Rand) explains that recognizing Turkey’s dire concern with territorial integrity goes a long way in clarifying what may at first blush appear to be inconsistent policies regarding Assad, Syria, ISIL and even its “traditional enmity” toward Russia. Gompert expresses the message clearly: “…we can count on the Turks to do whatever it takes to prevent Kurdish states on their southern border.”
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

SMA Reachback: Part 8 Post ISIL Governance

This is Part 8 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 4 Actor Interests and Motivations

This is Part 4 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Syrian Reaction to Salafi Institution

Question (R3 QL6): How will the population in northwest Syria react to future Salafist political institutions? Similar to points made by other contributors to this SMA Reach-back report, Dr. Kathleen Reedy of Rand includes a caveat in her response to the CENTCOM question. Given international pressure to avoid Salafi expansion in Syria, it is doubtful she argues, that Salafist policies or leaders would be allowed to become dominant over sizeable areas of northwest Syria. Nonetheless, contributors’ input on the likely response to future Salafist political institutions in northwest Syria tends to align with one of two viewpoints: 1) Syrians will reject Salafi efforts to establish political institutions (i.e., to govern); or 2) Salafi governance will be accepted under certain circumstances.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Military Influence in Post-ISIL Levant

Question (R2 QL7): What significance will small military groups, particularly in Northern Syria, have in a post-ISIL Levant? How should CENTCOM best shape or influence these groups?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 3 Encourage Regional Stability

This is Part 3 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Black Swans to Defeating ISIL in al-Raqqah

Question (R2 #5): What are potential unanticipated complications or reactions (or “black swans”) with respect to defeating ISIL in al-Raqqah?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Learning From the Countries Favorable to ISIL

Question (R2 #2): In countries where polling shows favorable opinions of ISIL (Syria, Nigeria, Tunisia, Senegal and Malaysia), what does this tell us? What do these countries have in common? What is our best approach to influence/inform?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 7 USG Bureaucratic Requirements

This is Part 7 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 2 Learning From the Fight Against ISIS

This is Part 2 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: South China Sea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese government officials during peak times of conflict in the South China Sea from 2002 to 2016. The leading indicators and warnings for the Chinese, Philippine, and Vietnamese governments are presented separately, as well as findings regarding how their use of language reflects predominant national concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Estonia

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders and has the potential to provide leading indicators and reveal key issues and concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Understand and Respond to Contemporary Russia

More than two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West continues coming to terms with the implications of this event. As discussed by the project’s the first report, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ quickly established itself, because it seemed to be particularly useful to explain recent changes in Russian defence and foreign policy. The report highlighted that the concept was indeed valuable in drawing the attention of policymakers to some new security challenges. At the same time, the report cautioned that beyond this initial usefulness, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ as an explanation for almost every Russian policy move is likely to do more harm than good to our understanding of developments in Russia, as well as to the process of identifying and implementing realistic responses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Russian Interests in Syria

This paper found that Russia¹s strategic interests in the Middle East are fairly stable. What could change is how Russia prioritizes its interests in the wake of the US election and change in administration. Indicators of change might include troop movement or alteration in leader discourse.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Discussion with NPS Experts - Dec 2016

Topic 1: How the Mosul Campaign Shapes the Future of Iraq John Arquilla, Chair of the Defense Analysis Department, spoke about how the Mosul campaign will shape the future of Iraq.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios

Question (V4): Post-ISIL Iraq Scenarios. What are the most likely post-lSIL Iraq scenarios with regards to Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and Time (PMESII-PT)? Where are the main PMESII-PT friction points, which are most acute, and how are they best exploited to accomplish a stable end state favorable to U.S. and coalition interests?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Influence Future of Syria

Experts varied from pessimistic (chronic warfare) to cautiously optimistic regarding their expectations for the future of Syria, yet mentioned many of the same factors that they felt would influence Syria’s future path. Most of these key factors – ranging from external geopolitical rivalries to the health and welfare of individual Syrians – were outside what typical military operations might affect. Instead they center on political and humanitarian recovery, healing of social division.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Mosul Coalition Fragmentation

The study team assessed how a change in either the CJTF-OIR coalition or regional coalition could influence the tactical coalition post Mosul and the subsequent effect of these potential fragmentations on the GoI¹s ability to control Iraq. The study team established six potential post-Mosul future scenarios. One future consisted of the tactical coalition remaining intact and the other five consisted of different permutations of the tactical coalition fragmenting. The study team then modeled these six futures with the Athena Simulation and quantified their effects on both Mosul and Iraq writ large.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Iran Nuclear Deal Implications

Question (V6): Strategic and Operational Implications of the Iran Nuclear Deal. What are the strategic and operational implications of the Iran nuclear deal on the US-led coalition¹s ability to prosecute the war against ISIL in Iraq and Syria and to create the conditions for political, humanitarian and security sector stability?
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Countering the ISIL Fight

Based on the balance of actor interests, resolve and capability, the defeat of Islamic State organization seems highly likely (defeat of the ideology is another matter). Specifically, the push for ISIL defeat in Syria is led by Iran and the Assad regime, both of which have high potential capacity and high resolve relative to ISIL defeat. Only ISIL has high resolve toward ISIL expansion in Syria. Iran, Jordan,Iraqi Kurds, Saudi Arabia, and Shi’a Hardline & Militia, show highest resolve for ISIL defeat in Iraq.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Socio-Political Stability in Syria and Iraq

This White Paper presents the analytic results from Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) project touching on the Middle East and North Africa. The objective is to suggest options to manage conflict in the region and to facilitate socio-political stability in Iraq and Syria. Options that are discussed are intentionally “out-of-the-box”, non-kinetic, and focused on potential Coalition efforts to:
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part III: Use Case Analysis of Iraqi-Syrian Conflict

This is Part III of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and why it is critical to assess US security interests and activities holistically rather than just in terms of the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the US is most interested. Part II described the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actors for five conflicts. It uses the Syrian Civil War as a use case.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part II: Assessing Dynamics of the Iraqi-Syrian Conflict

This is Part II of a larger study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part I described the system and why it is critical to assess US security interests and activities holistically rather than just in terms of the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the US is most interested. Part II described the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actors for five conflicts. It uses the Syrian Civil War as a use case.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (ExecSum)

This project identified threats and opportunities in Eurasia (with particular emphasis on USEUCOM area of responsibility (AOR) countries). This report provides an overview of the regional issues identified by the US, Russia, NATO, and the EU in policy statements, speeches, and the media, and how they intersect with actor interests. It then presents the major themes arising from the integration of the team findings in response to USEUCOM’s questions, in particular the importance of understanding Russia’s worldview, and the subsequent recommendations for reducing conflict and increasing the probability of cooperation with Russia.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (Integration)

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Thematic Analysis of Russian and NATO Speeches

This study addresses key questions posed in the SMA EUCOM project by using thematic analysis of speeches from leaders of state and non-state polities in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Caucasus. The importance of an issue is measured by the density (mentions/words in speech) with which it is mentioned and the use of associated emotive language.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions in Russian Media

This study sought to examine future political, security, societal and economic trends to identify where U.S. interests are in cooperation or conflict with Russian interests, and in particular, identify leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Eurasia Strategic Risk and Future Trends

The GMU Eurasia Strategic Risk project examined future political, security, societal and economic trends as they apply to the decision calculus of key Eurasian regional actors. Timed Influence Net (TIN) models were used to identify potential sources of strategic risk for the United States by focusing on actions and behaviors that would be considered adverse by the United States, NATO, and other U.S. partner nations. The goal was to provide planners with a tool that can be used to inform their discussions with military and non-military staffs from both the United States and its partners on potential Eurasia strategies. Among the key observations: When the adverse behaviors the United States seeks to influence are not related to a perceived existential threat to a NATO member, classical deterrence cost-benefit calculations lose importance. However, Russia’s perceived cost-benefit calculations of not acting, and its perception of the decision calculus of the United States and its partners remain important considerations. For this reason, the study concludes that NATO’s Article V will continue to serve as an effective deterrent to actions which the Alliance believes constitute an existential threat to a member country, but is less likely to deter attacks that do not jeopardize a member state’s existence because the political cost of restraint for Russia outweighs the potential cost of a likely NATO response.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Russian Opportunities and Challenges in the Arctic

The receding of the Arctic ice presents the Russian Federation with complex opportunities and challenges, both domestic and international. Russia is investing heavily in developing the infrastructure on its Arctic coastline to support both destination shipping in the Arctic and transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The estimated resources in the Russian Arctic Region in energy and minerals are very large but their extraction requires major long term investments and such investments are high risk ones because of harsh weather and the insufficiency of the existing infrastructure; some of the existing infrastructure is degrading because of the thawing of the permafrost. Russia’s effort to modernize its Armed Forces has included the creation of the Arctic Joint Strategic Command that includes the Northern Fleet. Old bases are being re‐opened and new bases are created in the Arctic region. These developments in the Arctic show clearly that the Far North is expected to have a major role in the future of Russia not only for economic reasons but also as a common theme, a common narrative that resonates with the Russian people. It will be unwise to interpret all Russian actions in the Arctic as being statements to the West or to the East. It will be helpful if they are also interpreted in terms of internal domestic (and nationalistic) considerations.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

A New Info Paradigm? From Genes to ‘Big Data’

We live in an age characterized by the reshaping of society through the presence of information and networks. The proliferation of information technologies from the micro and instantaneous to the insights hidden in “big data” has generated a range of new issues with implications for global transformation and political power shifts, patterns of conflict and warfare, and potential opportunities for enhancing global stability. The time is right for a thorough consideration of the implications of this “age” on US national security issues. How can we best understand the near-term and long-term consequences of these changes? What adaptations to our current intellectual frameworks, intelligence processes, organizational structures, command and control practices and planning approaches may be necessary? In short, how can the United States Government (USG) and its allies recognize the risks as well as the opportunities for enhanced global security presented by fuller realization of the “information age”?
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Leader Assessment of Bashar al-Assad (Part I)

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary discourse analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Leader Assessment of Bashar al-Assad (Part II)

This report suggests potential types of actions and messages most likely to influence and deter Bashar al-Assad from using force in the ongoing Syrian civil war. This study is based on multidisciplinary analyses of Bashar al-Assad’s speeches, and how he reacts to real events and verbal messages from external sources.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

New Face of Transnational Crime Organizations (TCOs)

President Barack Obama: Significant transnational criminal organizations constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States, and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat…Criminal networks are not only expanding their operations, but they are also diversifying their activities, resulting in a convergence of transnational threats that has evolved to become more complex, volatile, and destabilizing.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

7th Annual SMA Conference - What Now, What Next?

The 7th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 13-14 November 2013. The conference was focused on global megatrends and their implications in all spheres of national security. It is no exaggeration to state that the world today is a very different place than it was barely 12 years ago when the war against al Qaida and its affiliates began. As we move forward, continuing advances in various spheres such as the sociotechnical world will present both challenges and opportunities. The conference examined these and related themes and highlighted new insights from the social and neurosciences.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

World in Transformation: Challenges | Opportunities

The 6th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 6-8 November 2012. The theme of the conference was A World in Transformation: Challenges and Opportunities. A significant portion of the conference addressed the needs of the Geographical Commands. Days One and Two were unclassified, while Day Three was held at the SECRET level.1 As in previous years, representatives from the Geographical Commands were present throughout the conference. On Day Two and on Day Three, representatives discussed the Geographical Commands’ pressing needs to provide the SMA community with an opportunity to mine its wide network of experts to assist in identifying capabilities that can match the Commands’ needs. What resulted was a lively discussion, which is captured in this document.
Year Published:
2012
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SMA Publication

National Security - Social & Complexity Science Insights

This White Volume assesses U.S. long term national security challenges, employing a global perspective that accounts for the changing political, economic, social, and psychological profiles of populations, and the rapid changes they experience in a globally connected information en- vironment. It addresses many of the key national security challenges iden- tified by LTG Flynn in the Preface. The collection of essays explores future population-centric national security challenges through the lens of the lat- est research from the social, neurological, and complexity sciences. The papers emphasize “enduring” long term themes that are focused on the in- teractions of populations and their environments. They are not U.S.- centric, but multi-perspective and examine underlying long term phenom- ena.
Year Published:
2012
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SMA Publication

5th Annual SMA Conference - State/Non-State Actors

The 5th Annual Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland from 29-30 November 2011. The SMA program is prioritized by the Joint Staff and executed by ASD (R&E) RFD. The focus of the SMA Conference was on influence strategies of state and non-state actors as well as the impact of the social and neurobiological sciences on key aspects of national security. The conference also hosted special sessions on geospatial applications, influence and deterrence in cyber space, and complex adaptive systems. Each session was designed to draw on diverse perspectives and insights from across the United States Government (USG), industry, and academia as well as from around the globe.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

Attribute Tradeoff Model (ATOM) for Force Posturing

Given New Start, the Administration’s interest in “nuclear zero” and a budget-constrained environment, analysts are likely to receive greater numbers of requests for comparison of the capacity of various force postures and structures to achieve nuclear policy goals. At present, no theoretically grounded and systematic method exists for comparing how well specific (attribute- based) force postures support specific policy objectives. In the nuclear context, the central policy objectives identified by the Concepts and Analysis of Nuclear Strategy CANS project are strategic stability, counter proliferation, deterrence, assurance and defeat.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

From the Mind to the Feet: Assessing the Perception-to-Intent-to-Action Dynamic

The purpose of From the Mind to the Feet is to open a much deeper dialogue about gauging intent than currently exists ei- ther in operational or academic arenas. It is intended to serve military and civilian defense leaders, deterrence and policy planners, and practitioners with a review of the basic concepts and state-of-the-art understanding of intent. It is organized into two sections: operational and academic perspectives on intent.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

Concepts and Analysis of Nuclear Strategy

This paper reports the theoretical review and framework development conducted by the STRATCOM/J-5 “Concept and Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) Theory Team. It reports the theoretical review and framework development with two goals in mind:
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Collaboration in National Security: Myths and Reality

The purpose of this compendium of white papers is to explore various perspectives on the state of the art in our understanding of collaboration, including insights on the key factors that influence the who, what, when, where, and how of this topic. Collaboration traditionally refers to multiple people or organizations working towards common goals, but there are many other perspectives and definitions. The objective of this compendium is to identify and discuss the issues:
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

ViTTa Analysis of Eurasia in the Next 5-25 Years

From July through November 2015, NSI employed its Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) methodology to systematically interview 26 subject matter experts in support of a Strategic Multilayer Assessment effort to research and identify drivers of conflict and cooperation in Eurasia in the next 5-25 years. Representatives from the United States European Command (EUCOM) provided 37 questions to guide the interview effort (see Appendix A). This report summarizes SME knowledge and insights on these questions—grouped into nine chapters.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Post-War Economic Development in Iraq & Syria

Question (R6.5): After a long period of war, both Iraq and Syria are devastated and considerable rebuilding efforts will be necessary to make these countries economically sound again. Is there an opportunity to entice regional countries to invest and thus improve stability and inter-state relations in the region and decrease their (economical) dependence on western countries? What impact does foreign military sales have on the ultimate regional stability?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model

The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, as defined by USAFRICOM’s interactive AOR map (https://www.africom.mil/military-presence). Developed from the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM), it identifies various variables or factors (nodes) and their linkages through direct connections to one another (edges), representing the complex conditions and dynamics of the OE in West Africa.
Year Published:
2025
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SMA Publication

Who Will We—and They—be on Day 30 or Day 1000 in Deterrence?

The Joint Concept for Competing (JCC; Feb 2023) states that a ‘competitive mindset also means embracing strategic competition as a persistent and enduring national security challenge.’ That requires anticipating future change as adversaries respond to us, and we to them. Iteration. Yet although potential futures rapidly become impossibly numerous to analyse, and are in many ways unprestatable, we can identify regularities significant for deterrence planning.
Year Published:
2025
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SMA Publication

Escalation Management in the Early Stages of International Crisis

This report evaluates how crisis actors respond to adversary actions in the early stages of an international crisis. We specifically consider the first three stages of a crisis: the trigger act from a challenger, the response act from the defender state which has been triggered, and then the counter-response
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

U.S. Command Perspectives on Campaigning in Support of Integrated Deterrence (Volume IV)

The Department will advance our priorities through integrated deterrence, campaigning, and actions that build enduring advantages. Integrated deterrence entails working seamlessly across warfighting domains, theaters, the spectrum of conflict, all instruments of U.S. national power, and our network of Alliances andpartnerships. Tailored to specific circumstances, it applies a coordinated, multifaceted approach to reducing competitors’ perceptions of the net benefits of aggression relative to restraint. Integrated deterrence is enabled by combat-credible forces prepared to fight and win, as needed, and backstopped by a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent.
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands (Volume III)

In this report, entitled “Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands,” ten military Combatant Commands provide overviews of the challenges they face in their respective areas of responsibility (AORs) and how they plan to ameliorate the risks and maximize the opportunities that these challenges present. The report provides the Commands a platform to articulate how they plan to manage the multiplicity of challenges they face. By doing so, it helps identify the types of capabilities and activities the Services must be able to plan for and field in defense of US interests in a competitive future international environment.
Year Published:
2022
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SMA Publication

US versus China: Promoting 'Constructive Competition' to Avoid 'Destructive Competition' (Volume II)

It is not an exaggeration to state that China is and will remain a significant challenge to the US on all aspects of national power for the foreseeable future. This situation has been in the making for quite some time. This SMA Perspectives paper will not delve into the historical roots of why the US got to where it is, however. Nor will it dwell on the purely military aspects of the conflict. These are important considerations that are amply discussed elsewhere in numerous scholarly publications. This SMA Perspectives paper is focused on the following question: “How should the US manage the US-China relations so that they stay below the level of conflict and destructive competition?” In this context, the paper distinguishes “constructive competition” from “destructive competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Present and Future Challenges to Maintaining Balance Between Global Cooperation and Competition (Volume I)

The future operating environment will present US military leaders and planners with both familiar and unfamiliar problem sets that will test the DoD and partner nations’ ability to maintain strategic stability. These future challenges are anticipated to be significantly different from those of recent decades. The two overarching challenges are contested norms and persistent disorder. It is expected that adversaries will continue to pursue their national objectives by creatively combining conventional and non-conventional methods to operate below a threshold that they believe would invoke a direct military or other damaging response from the United States or its allies.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

SMA Prior Work in the Information Environment: An Annotated Bibliography

The current SMA project, Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO), builds on a strong foundation of prior SMA work on influence and information operations. The themes underlying the research reflect shifting priorities as SMA has responded to requests ranging counterterrorism to deterrence to great power competition.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Media Reporting on Egypt’s Economy and Bailout Narratives: The Role of Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian Media Narratives in Solving Egypt’s Economic Crisis

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

US Action and Inaction in Lebanon: Charting the Best Course for US Interests in Great Power Competition

Despite significant challenges to its stability, Lebanon has long survived politically and economically. Nonetheless, poor governance and a severe economic crisis, coupled with ongoing public outrage, signal that the Lebanese government may no longer be able to withstand its enduring pressures.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

A "Colder War" Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the formation of a China-Russia Axis and subsequent emergence of a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) periphery.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Geopolitics)

SMA Speaker Series

Party-Army Relations in Contemporary China

Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched the largest purge of leadership within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), primarily targeting the PLA Rocket Force and the Equipment Development Department, in an effort to bring the military more firmly under Chinese Communist Party (CCP) control. While the primary focus has been on the Rocket Force—which also oversees China’s nuclear arsenal —Xi has also begun removing leadership from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). His attempts to strengthen CCP-PLA ties have led to widespread allegations of corruption and may be contributing to a slowdown in the PLA’s modernization efforts. This slowdown is significant, as Xi has ordered the PLA to be capable of invading and occupying Taiwan by 2027—a year symbolically marking the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s founding.
July 24, 2025
Lyle J. Morris
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SMA Speaker Series

Using the New Character of Warfare to Dramatically Enhance Baltic Defense

Speakers: Dr. T. X. Hammes (Institute for National Strategic Studies)with Guest Host Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology)
July 16, 2025
‍Dr. T. X. Hammes
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SMA Speaker Series

AI: An Analyst’s Forecasting Tool

Artificial intelligence (AI) is proliferating throughout society and has implications for many careers and jobs, including military intelligence. More specifically, AI tools have the potential to enhance the analysis conducted by analysts within the intelligence community (IC). Dr. Flores emphasized the need for the United States to compete with China and Russia for AI dominance, as the stakes and implications of allowing these countries to surpass the United States in AI development continue to rise. These stakes include threats to democratic institutions and the spread of authoritarianism.
July 10, 2025
Dr. Kevin Modlin and Dr. Roberto Flores
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SMA Speaker Series

Arctic Strategic Tumult and Technological Resilience

Speaker Session Summary Forthcoming!
July 1, 2025
Gregory Falco and Caroline Kennedy-Pipe
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic: Benign Activities or Hidden Agenda?

China’s research and information-gathering activities in the Arctic have raised security concerns among other Arctic nations, particularly regarding infrastructure, natural resources, data management, and diplomatic influence. China’s involvement in the region began in 1996 with its proposal to establish a temporary research station on the Svalbard Archipelago—an initiative that eventually became permanent. In 2013, China obtained observer status in the Arctic Council and published its first Arctic policy in a 2018 White Paper. Since then, many nations have perceived China’s increasing Arctic activity as both an economic opportunity and as a potential security threat.
June 24, 2025
Dr. Stephanie Pezard
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SMA Speaker Series

The Next US Warfighting Advantage: The Mind-Tech Nexus

During World War II, Germany combined emerging technological advancements with human elements of warfare—such as surprise and operational skill—to execute its Blitzkrieg strategy in the early stages of the conflict. Today, emerging technologies are enhancing the interface between warfighters and machines, threatening to fundamentally alter the nature and conduct of war. Even nascent technologies have the potential to reshape how people think about and conceptualize warfare.
June 26, 2025
Todd Veazie and Dr. Nicholas Wright
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SMA Speaker Series

Future in the High North: The Role of the Nordics in Meeting the Sino-Russian Challenges

SMA hosted a speaker session with CDR Stefan Lundqvist, PhD(Swedish Defence University) with Guest Host Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
June 4, 2025
Stefan Lundqvist
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SMA Speaker Series

The “New” And “Old” in Xi Jinping as a Chinese Leader

Xi Jinping is frequently described as a fundamentally new type of leader in Chinese politics—one who has dismantled the tradition of collective leadership and revived elements of Maoist ideological discourse. While these characterizations contain some validity, they do not fully capture the nuances of Chinese elite politics or the current role of ideology within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP has long functioned as a system that is notably leader-centric, and assertions that Xi is abandoning Deng Xiaoping’s institutional leadership framework do not align with recent historiographical reassessments of Deng’s governance. Although Xi appears committed to restoring ideological conviction among party members as essential to the CCP’s survival, his formative experiences during the Mao era likely instilled a degree of skepticism toward radical politics. Xi’s ideological approach appears to chart a middle path—seeking to preserve the economic dynamism of the Reform and Opening period while selectively invoking elements of earlier ideological frameworks to address the socio-political challenges stemming from those reforms. Furthermore, given the CCP’s top-down power structure, it remains improbable that internal elite coalitions will compel a strategic realignment.
May 20, 2025
Dr. Joseph Torigian
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SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

US-Russia Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Donald N. Jensen (Director of Russia and Strategic Stability, United States Institute of Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
December 1, 2021
Jensen, D. (USIP)
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike.
June 27, 2024
Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Generating and Employing Mass on the 21st Century Battlefield

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Sidharth Kaushal (Royal United Services Institute) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
May 13, 2025
Dr. Sidharth Kaushal
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's Military After Ukraine: Potential Pathways for the Postwar Reconstitution of the Russian Armed Forces

The ongoing war in Ukraine is testing Russia’s armed forces in ways they have not experienced in decades.
May 1, 2025
Speakers: Dr. Michelle Grisé, Dr. Krystyna Marcinek, Anna Dowd, and David Woodworth (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Remilitarization of the Arctic

The Arctic, considered a space of geopolitical cooperation following the Cold War, is increasingly becoming a region of strategic rivalry among Russia, China, and other Arctic states.
April 16, 2025
Speaker: Dr. James Patton Rogers (Brooks Tech Policy Institute, Cornell University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Assessing Deterrence: Understanding Adversary Behaviour and Their Perception of our Behaviour

For Western allies to properly deter unwanted Russian actions, there must be a shared allied perception of Russian threats and behaviors.
April 8, 2025
Catherine Royle
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SMA Speaker Series

Globally Critical Infrastructure: The Unique Risks and Challenges

Certain infrastructures are not only important to individual nations but also entire regions and the global system. Globally critical infrastructure (GCI) can be located within, across, and outside state borders.
April 1, 2025
Zak Kallenborn
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SMA Speaker Series

Gladiators of the Sky: The Evolution of sUAS (Drones) - TTPs, Education/Training, and Establishing Drones in the Planning Process

The proliferation of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS), commonly referred to as drones, in modern combat is accelerating the evolution of techniques, tactics, and procedures (TTPs) being adopted by the military.
March 20, 2025
Bill Edwards
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Axis of Upheaval? North Korea, Russia, and China—and Why We Should Care

Speaker: Dr. Edward Howell (University of Oxford, Chatham House, Pharos Foundation).
March 12, 2025
‍Dr. Edward Howell
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SMA Speaker Series

Answering Authoritarian State Challenges: Tools for Deterring Russia and China

Information serves as a valuable yet often underutilized tool for deterring China, Russia, and other US adversaries. Dr. Fisher applied the diplomacy, information, military, and economic (DIME) tool framework to demonstrate how information influences China’s behavior.
March 6, 2024
Scott Fisher
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SMA Speaker Series

Ecological Security: Military or Civil Duty?

Ecological security will likely be one of the defining security issues of the 21st century. Mr. Lewis emphasized that the world is in a race between the harmful effects of global climate change and the delayed but necessary efforts in mitigation, adaptation, and regeneration.
February 12, 2025
Thammy Evans and Gary Lewis
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SMA Speaker Series

Nuclear Deterrence in a Two-peer World: Implications for Europe

Speaker: Dr. Max Hoell (Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).
February 27, 2025
Dr. Max Hoell
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SMA Speaker Series

The Philippines, Beijing’s Bullying, and a Forgotten Struggle for Peace

Speaker: Dr. Haroro Ingram (United States Institute of Peace (USIP)).
February 21, 2025
‍Dr. Haroro J. Ingram
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SMA Speaker Series

Incorporating EMS Contestation in Strategic-Level Wargames

Electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) contestation occurs when two or more actors use EMS to gather information or disrupt an adversary’s ability to operate. War games must accurately reflect the prevalence of EMS contestation to prepare participants for real-world scenarios.
February 11, 2024
Ross Buchanan
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SMA Speaker Series

Understanding and Countering China's Maritime Gray Zone Operations

China is seeking to assert control over and advance its interests in large portions of Southeast Asia and the South China Sea (SCS).
January 30, 2025
Dr. Todd Helmus and Dr. Krista Romita Grocholski
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SMA Speaker Series

Security Risks of Climate Action

The negative effects of climate change on societies and their security are well-documented; however, the speed and scale at which climate change mitigation must occur to avoid the worst effects may bring destabilizing consequences as well.
January 15, 2025
Andrew Gilmour
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence and escalation maneuver in a two-peer environment: Developing a new escalation management strategy for the United States

Saudi Arabia and Iran have a deeply rooted rivalry stemming from their contrasting visions for the future of their individual nations and the broader Middle East.
January 8, 2025
Karim Sadjadpour
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SMA Speaker Series

Saudi Vision 2030 vs Iran Vision 1979

Saudi Arabia and Iran have a deeply rooted rivalry stemming from their contrasting visions for the future of their individual nations and the broader Middle East.
January 8, 2025
Karim Sadjadpour
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Adaptation to Sanctions: The Military Industrial Complex and Regional Dynamics

The Russian economy has proven stubbornly resilient to Western sanctions. Ms. Ribakova discussed this resilience through two lenses: the military industrial complex and the economic convergence of Russia’s regions.
December 10, 2024
‍Elina Ribakova
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SMA Speaker Series

U.S. Military Theories of Victory for a War with the People's Republic of China

The United States has not had to seriously consider conflict escalation with a near-peer adversary that could result in a conflict that ends in large-scale destruction since the Cold War.
November 13, 2024
Jacob Heim and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga
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SMA Speaker Series

American Statecraft and the Challenge of Emerging Powers

The United States has primarily focused on China’s geopolitical rise over the past two decades and the implications of a near-peer competitor to US interests.
October 23, 2024
Dr. Chris Chivvis and Beatrix Geaghan-Breiner
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Options for Taiwan Short of an Invasion

A blockade, by contrast, would be significantly more restrictive and kinetic, and would be led by the military. In another difference from a quarantine, there is doctrinal evidence that the People’s Liberation Army has long been planning for this kind of operation.
October 30, 2024
Dr. Bonny Lin, Dr. Matthew P. Funaiole, and Brian Hart
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SMA Speaker Series

When Rambo Meets the Red Cross: Civil-Military Engagement in Fragile States

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and their military counterparts often have a confrontational relationship, with both sides suggesting that the other should “stay in their respective lanes.”
December 6, 2024
Dr. Stanislava P. Mladenova
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict

A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.
September 19, 2024
Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska
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SMA Speaker Series

The Origins of the War in Ukraine

Russia seeks to dominate both Ukraine’s territory and its political future. Dr. Kimmage analyzed Russia’s motivations for initiating the war, as well as the failures of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in deterring the invasion.
October 14, 2024
‍Michael Kimmage
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SMA Speaker Series

Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences

The level of integration and cooperation between China and Russia in the event of a significant military conflict is often speculated upon, particularly given the rising political tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.
September 12, 2024
Mark Cozad, Cortez A. Cooper III, and David Woodworth
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SMA Speaker Series

The Defender's Dilemma: Why countering grayzone aggression is so difficult (and what options Western governments do have)

Western governments, including the United States, face significant challenges in identifying gray zone aggression. This form of aggression is often difficult to detect before the attack is fully underway, as it can originate from any source at any time.
September 5, 2024
Elisabeth Braw
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

Public Support for Self-Defence in Taiwan: The Current State of Research

Chinese President Xi Jinping has indicated that an invasion of Taiwan by 2027 is a distinct possibility, if not imminent. The concern of a Chinese invasion from the international community intensified following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
August 14, 2024
Dr. Yao-Yuan Yeh, Dr. Fang-Yu Chen, and Dr. Charles Wu
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SMA Speaker Series

Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order

The ongoing war in Ukraine remains unresolved, and its outcome is widely debated among politicians, researchers, and military practitioners.
July 16, 2024
Luis Simón and Lotje Boswinkel
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SMA Speaker Series

Access Denied?: Assessing Options for Projecting Airpower into a Contested East Asia

China is striving to limit US military power projection in its home region of East Asia by enhancing its own ability to project air and missile power.
June 25, 2024
Nicholas D. Anderson and Daryl Press
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SMA Speaker Series

Rebuilding Ukraine with Mr. Pavlo Kukhta

The ongoing Russian invasion has dramatically affected Ukraine’s industry and economy, forcing Ukraine to reimagine and rebuild its industrial base and market structure.
June 20, 2024
Pavlo Kukhta
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SMA Speaker Series

A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead - An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command

Climate-related stressors present significant risks to future stability in countries worldwide, affecting all US Combatant Commands.
May 9, 2024
Dr. Michelle Miro, Dr. Flannery C. Dolan, Karen M. Sudkamp, and Jeffrey Martini
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SMA Speaker Series

Some of the Analysis Behind RAND’s “Inflection Point” Report

Modern threats from developed nations like China are beginning to exceed US capabilities, partly because the US military was predominantly focused on regional adversaries such as Iraq during Desert Storm. Mr. Ochmanek categorized the US approach to military power projection during this period as expeditionary and sequential.
May 22, 2024
David Ochmanek
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SMA Speaker Series

Responses Against China's Coercion in the Indo-Pacific: Developing a Toolkit from the Philippines and Taiwan

China has escalated its aggressive and coercive tactics against smaller and less powerful states as part of its objective to become a regional hegemony.
April 24, 2024
Thomas J. Shattuck and Robin Michael U. Garcia
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SMA Speaker Series

The Qualities that Make Nations Competitive: Chinese and Russian Views

A significant portion of the current literature exploring Great Power Competition (GPC) among the United States, China, and Russia predominantly reflects a Western perspective.
April 23, 2024
Timothy R. Heath, Michael J. Mazarr, and Clint Reach
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SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.
April 11, 2024
Christine Abely
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SMA Speaker Series

The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter

Dr. O’Neil offers a reframed perspective on economic globalization, highlighting the prominence of increased interregional trade rather than international trade.
April 16, 2024
Shannon K. O’Neil
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SMA Speaker Series

A Climate of Insecurity? Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and National Security

The rapidly evolving global climate system is undergoing changes at an unprecedented rate, placing significant strains on governments and communities worldwide.
January 4, 2024
Dr. Samuel Henkin
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.
February 23, 2024
Thomas Graham
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SMA Speaker Series

Great Power Economic Competition, the PRC Economic Challenge, and the Prospects of De-Dollarization

According to Dr. Williams, there are two other important strategies employed by China to enhance the yuan’s prominence in the global financial sector involving the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China’s dominance in the mass production of goods imported by other countries.
February 1, 2024
Dr. Brandon Kirk Williams
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SMA Speaker Series

Upstart: How China Became a Great Power

In her recent book, “Upstart: How China Became a Great Power,” Dr. Mastro delves into the rapid trajectory of China’s rise from global obscurity to great power status.
March 12, 2024
‍Oriana Skylar Mastro
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterring the Risks of Simultaneous Conflicts and Limited Nuclear Attacks in East Asia

Fears of a potential conflict between China and either the US or its allies in the Indo-Pacific—especially over Taiwan—are intensifying. A potential conflict with China is worrying Indo-Pacific experts about the potential for renewed aggression from an opportunistic DPRK. Mr. Garlauskas emphasized that the deterrence landscape has been constantly shifting, placing regional US security interests in danger during the oncoming decade. One risk of beginning a conflict with either the DPRK or China is that it will result in a conflict with both states. There are several plausible pathways for Chinese and DPRK aggression that would increase the likelihood to a multi-state conflict in the region. Factors influencing these pathways include factors like opportunism by actors, escalation dynamics, and regional geography. However, because of pre-existing distrust between Chinese and DPRK leadership, a coordinated and simultaneous offensive against the US or its allies in the region is highly unlikely.
October 26, 2023
Markus Garlauskas
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of Nuclear Weapons, Statecraft, and Deterrence After Ukraine

The narrative surrounding nuclear deterrence and statecraft has changed since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; particularly Vladimir Putin’s threat of a nuclear strike against Ukraine. Putin’s overt threat of a nuclear strike has caused experts to ask how the US and other democratic actors can promote responsible nuclear statecraft. In spring of 2023, the Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania hosted a one-day workshop with esteemed panels of experts. In addition to their discussions, the panelists responded to a series of survey questions. They were asked if they believed Russia would be likely to use a nuclear weapon, and topics relating to nuclear statecraft including, the revival of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), nuclear cooperation between the US and China, and the likelihood of the ROK and Japan developing their own nuclear weapons.
October 17, 2023
Thomas Shattuck (Perry World House, University of Pennsylvania)
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Asian Order is Emerging

India’s expanding political influence is altering the current geopolitical order in Asia, with India positioned at its center. India’s growing role in geopolitics will over time take away some of the geopolitical focus on the Asia-Pacific region and place it on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr. Soliman emphasized that India’s geographical position at the center of the economic corridor running between China and the Middle East, give it a political and economic advantage. India’s massive population gives it massive economic and industrial potential on its own. India is also in a unique position to build political ties throughout the Indo-Pacific region with its historic and cultural ties throughout the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions. To further its geopolitical influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not only relying on its economic potential, but also signing military and security deals with other nations in the region. India is increasing its dialogue with several significant actors in the Middle East: Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Finally, Mr. Soliman put forth that Shinzo Abe’s Indo-Pacific vision, an India-centric strategy with a focus on bilateral security dialogue with Australia and the US, is now coming true.
July 26, 2023
Mr. Mohammed Soliman (Middle East Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Spheres of Influence in the Coming Decades: Four Alternative Scenarios

There has been much speculation regarding how the future great power competition between the US and China will affect the level of their global influence. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, which was designed to restore Russia’s geopolitical power, inspired the research group from the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures to try and predict future pathways for global political influence. The group has created the FBIC Index with the International Futures (IFs), identifying four main pathways for the evolution of actors’ political influence. These pathways are a) Great Power Competition, b) The Doldrums (a global recession), c) Western Resurgence, and d) Pariah State (Russia’s near complete isolation from the global system). The presenters emphasized that while the pathways identified by the IFs are the most likely, the future is highly unpredictable and deviations to any of the forementioned pathways are probable.
July 11, 2023
Dr. Mathew Burrows (Stimson Center), Collin Meisel (Stimson Center), Caleb Petry (Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures), and Dr. Jonathan Moyer (Josef Korbel School of International Studies; Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures)
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SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence and Global Power

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) has drastically increased in speed and scope. The speed at which AI is being developed is increasing its implications for its use in militaries and economic competition between countries. AI will inevitably play a strong role in the US-China great power competition. Chinese president, Xi Jinping, even stated that technology and science is the main battlefield on which countries fight. Past industrialization has influenced past great power competitions. For example, Great Britain and Germany industrialized more quickly than Russia during the 18th century, surpassing Russia and becoming the two strongest European economies. Dr. Scharre commented that despite China’s rapid development of AI, the US still has a strong scientific lead on its main geopolitical rival and is in a strong position to retain its lead. The competition for AI dominance will likely be decided by four factors: a) data collection, b) hardware and chip development, c) talent retention, and d) institutional strength.
June 28, 2023
Dr. Paul Scharre (CNAS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Safety and Security of Nuclear Installations in Ukraine and Implications for Future Conflicts

The war in Ukraine is raising questions about the security of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the safety of civilians who are in their proximity. Military and civilian leaders in other countries that possess nuclear power plants are examining how litigation could protect their own facilities during future conflicts. Ms. Dolzikova stated that this discussion has intensified since Russia occupied the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) during the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine. The ZNPP is still under Russian occupation, forcing collaboration between Ukrainian and Russian nuclear scientists, Ukrainian workers at ZNPP, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Russian occupiers to ensure the plant’s safety and security. Since Russia’s take-over, all six ZNPP nuclear reactors have been shut down. One reactor is in a “hot shutdown,” allowing it to produce steam. Russian nuclear scientists are insisting that it is necessary for this reactor to produce steam for the safety of the power plant, but Ukrainian scientists claim that a “hot shutdown” is an unnecessary hazard. They claim that keeping the reactor in this state is reducing the time window that workers would have to divert a catastrophe during a systems failure.
August 1, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Using a Nuclear Security & Nonproliferation Approach to Reduce US-PRC Escalation Risks in a DPRK Collapse Scenario

Despite the deep freeze in US-China relations, the US and China have mutual interests that could reduce risk in a future DPRK regime collapse scenario. The US and China have prior experience successfully collaborating on nonproliferation initiatives, including standards for nuclear facilities and security measures relating to the storage and transportation of nuclear material. US and Chinese scientists have also collaborated in unstable and conflict-ridden countries, such as Nigeria, to collect and clean nuclear waste. Moreover, the US and China have signed bilateral nuclear agreements in the past and are two of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, or P5. Their status as P5 countries provides the US and China an easy avenue for communication and litigation. Dr. Anderson stated that the US can try to increase bilateral communication, collaboration, and invite Chinese scientists to observe or participate in future nuclear exercises or try and better bilateral political relations in this DPRK regime collapse scenario. South Korea can also play a role in increasing the awareness surrounding denuclearization by hosting UN security conferences.
June 8, 2023
Dr. Justin Anderson (NDU)
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SMA Speaker Series

The United States and Regional Great Power Rivalry: Can America Still Pass the Mearsheimer test?

International relations (IR) experts widely perceive the US global political influence to be in a decline, especially in regions farther from the US. However, state actors who are gaining influence in their home regions are experiencing their own geopolitical roadblocks. Dr. Katz highlighted the past work of IR theorist, John Mearsheimer, who created a standard for measuring an actor’s great power strength and influence in regions across the world. Dr. Mearsheimer’s work argues that the US is the only nation to achieve hegemony in one region (the Western Hemisphere) and be able to prevent any other great power from gaining hegemony in any other region. Dr. Katz argued that the question is no longer if the US can grow its own geopolitical influence in regions, but if it can keep its adversaries from increasing theirs.
July 25, 2023
Dr. Mark Katz (Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Escalation Management in International Conflict: The United States and its Adversaries

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland) and Mr. Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.Great power competition between democratic and autocratic states has been increasing in prevalence and intensity during recent years. As competition between nations with highly capable militaries—like the US and China—increases, academic researchers and decision makers are focusing on how crisis escalation can be avoided. Ms. Murauskaite and Mr. Ellis address this research question in their recent book, “Escalation Management in International Crises: The United States and its Adversaries.” Mr. Ellis commented that much more than traditional research went into the writing of this book. The team also performed modeling efforts, conducted tabletop games, and collaborated with other researchers to create a table of escalation. This table provides a wide array of activities that either lead to escalation or de-escalation of crisis among states. The identified activities are numerous, including many tools and activities in the gray zone.
April 25, 2023
Egle Murauskaite (ICONS Project, University of Maryland), and Devin H. Ellis (Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS), University of Maryland)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Dilemmas Posed by the Great Power Competition on Political Transitions and the Security Landscape in the Sahel

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Joseph Sany (United States Institute for Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment” (AFOE) Speaker Series.The US, China, and Russia are locked in a global struggle for geopolitical dominance, which is beginning to become more prevalent on the African continent. Dr. Sany stated that the competition between these powers is more geopolitical than ideological; especially in relation to past geopolitical competitions, such as the Cold War. The three great powers are mostly interested in access to African countries’ seaports, critical minerals, and growing consumer markets. How they build their political relationships is driven by their perception of the continent. The US perceives Africa as a source of potential security threats and as a weak link in a chain of allies and partners, seeking to increase countries’ stability through aid. China views Africa as a land of economic opportunities, looking to grow political connections through trade. Russia views Africa as a group of countries seeking decolonization, fueling nationalistic movements through the arms trade. All three countries have made high-level political visits a regular tool for geopolitical growth, showing African countries that they are serious about political engagement. Also, Dr. Sany commented that recent shifts in US political doctrine shows a shift away from the US’ long-held opinion of the African continent as continent made up of security threats.
March 30, 2023
Dr. Joseph Sany (US Institute of Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

How Kenyans Are Responding to China's Belt and Road Initiative: Adding Nuance with Hyperlocal Data

Fraym, a geospatial data company, combines survey and satellite data using advanced machine learning to produce population information with 1km2 resolution. In their presentation, Ms. Turner and Mr. Santiago discussed hyperlocal views of populations near Kenyan Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, particularly views towards the US, China, the US military, and BRI projects. Survey data and analysis show the US and China are both viewed positively in Kenya, 89% and 75% respectively; adults with favorable views of one country often have favorable views of the other. Kenyan’s sentiment toward the long-term and short-term impacts of the BRI are different. Fear of unemployment, debt, and displacement are associated with the short-term effects of BRI projects. For example, Mr. Santiago cited that 62% of Kenyan’s believe that an increase in Chinese workers will increase Kenya’s unemployment rate. There are also some fears relating to a debt trap surrounding Kenyan infrastructure and Chinese loans. However, as these fears abate over time and positive long-term effects of the BRI are felt, Kenya’s sentiment toward the BRI may become positive. Also, there is differing levels of sentiment towards increasing involvement of the US in Kenya. Reasons for support for increasing US involvement are increased security, a transfer of training and knowledge, and new advanced technology among others. Reasons for hesitancy relating to an increase of US involvement are that the US will attract enemies, general distrust, and fears that increased US involvement will bring back colonialism.
March 7, 2023
Erica Turner (Senior Data Analyst & Project Manager, Fraym) and Elijah Santiago (Senior Manager for Growth, Fraym)
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SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Belt and Road Initiative at 10 Years Old and the Future of China-Africa Relations

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has two avenues of focus—its land route, which connects China to Western Europe, and its maritime silk road, which traverses the Indo-Pacific and the eastern coast of Africa. China’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) associated with the BRI totals $1 trillion USD globally, and the value of China’s BRI investments in Africa currently makes it the largest single-state investor on the continent. However, it is worth noting that China’s global FDI has shrunk dramatically since it peaked in 2016. Its shrinking FDI is sometimes blamed on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, this trend predates the beginning of the pandemic, Dr. Benbdallah explained. These spending trends are occurring in Africa as well, even though most African countries officially joined the BRI during 2018 and 2019—after China began slowing down its FDI.The
March 22, 2023
Dr. Lina Benabdallah (Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic US-China War

How a war between the US and China over Taiwan’s sovereignty would develop is a frequently debated subject by scholars and military leaders as China continues to deny the island nation’s autonomy. War games are an integral part of how decision makers develop their grand strategy; however, war games are a far cry from actual warfare, Dr. Heath stated. Dr. Heath and his RAND colleagues instead analyzed academic literature and Chinese documents in order to examine how a US-China conflict over Taiwan would occur at both a high and low intensity. The intensity refers to how aggressively China and the US would attack each other’s armed forces inside and outside of the theater. Dr. Heath stated that if any military conflict between the US and China were to occur, it would be a) long lasting, b) multidimensional, and c) transcontinental. Furthermore, regardless of the war’s intensity, the outcome would heavily influence who the global political and economic leader will be.
January 11, 2023
Heath, T. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Exploitable Conditions in the 21st Century Strategic Environment

The creation of a computational model that encapsulates the increasingly complex and overwhelming world as multiple systems that can be measured empirically could have strong implications for civilian and military decision makers. NSI Inc. and SMA are currently working on such a model that is expanding on prior research conducted by TRADOC G-2. NSI has expanded on TRADOC’s original 24 exploitable conditions to create the Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) as part of the Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project for the US Joint Staff. Dr. Kuznar stated that while GECM is supported by a large corpus of qualitative research, a computational model has been built to empirically test it through network and system dynamics. GECM contains 17 subsystems that are comprised of 124 nodes and 829 edges where nodes connect. This model is the starting point for all of NSI’s research during the AFOE project.
November 30, 2022
Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Slaughtering Sacred Cows? German Energy Security, Nuclear Sharing, and the War in Ukraine

After the Cold War, despite many warning symbols from Russia (e.g., President Vladimir Putin’s election in 1999, the war against Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014), Germany and the rest of Europe entered a state of complacency regarding a potential Russian threat to Western security, energy, and hard power. Dr. Dorondo explained that successive German chancellors adopted a rosy vision of the nation’s future—a carbon-neutral Germany within a peaceful Europe. In the process, the nuclear power generation sector of Germany’s economy would be phased out, coal would no longer be used, and natural gas production would contribute to a new socioeconomic vision of the future. In part due to the lack of a perceived threat from Russia, German limited its military spending.
November 21, 2022
Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Semiconductors, China, Taiwan, and the US Policy Debate: Intersecting Technological, Economic Security, and Geopolitical Realities

China and Taiwan’s political relationship is highly confrontational; however, China’s dependence on advanced semi-conductors produced in Taiwan acts as a defensive shield for Taiwan. Semi-conductors are one of the most complex technological tools ever created. Dr. Cronin emphasized that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TMSL) is responsible for most of the current semiconductor industry. Taiwan provides 70% of China’s semi-conductor needs. China has the industrial infrastructure and the capability to mass-produce semi-conductor chips; however, they lack the means to produce the highly advanced chips used in advanced weapons systems. It is believed that most of China’s advanced missiles include Taiwanese semi-conductor chips that were produced under contract with the US. The US owns much of the intellectual property associated with the semiconductor chip industry.
November 9, 2022
Cronin, R. (The Stimson Center)
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SMA Speaker Series

Threat Inflation and the Taiwan Issue: The Need for an Active Denial Strategy, Plus Assurances

The US faces many tough dilemmas on how to build military deterrence measures against China in the Asia-Pacific, protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, and not place Japan or other allies in politically compromising positions. Dr. Swaine commented that building deterrence through overall US military capabilities and the individual armed forces is a multi-faceted issue, involving both military deterrence and credible reassurance measures to avoid inadvertent conflict. Three ideal types of military deterrence approaches identified were: a) punishment, b) control, and c) denial. Dr. Heginbotham mentioned that the DoD’s military strategy has been slowly and consistently shifting toward active denial, but that more remains to be done. Active denial relies on phased operations and divisions of labor with allies among other principles. Effectively utilizing active denial’s principles will include some restructuring and aligning of the armed forces.
November 10, 2022
Swaine, M. (East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft); Heginbotham, E. (Center for International Studies, MIT)
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SMA Speaker Series

Why Are We Integrating Now—and How Can We Integrate Better?

Integration between military and civilian leaders has been a significant part of strategic competition and military revolutions throughout history. For example, the US Joint Staff was created in response to the new demands of coordinating air, land, and sea forces during WWII. The National Security Act of 1947 institutionalized the Joint Staff’s form of integration, which carried through the Cold War and beyond. Dr. Wright emphasized that integration throughout the Joint Staff is still a salient topic. Integrated deterrence is a key facet of the 2022 National Defense Strategy. Helping the Joint Staff coordinate deterrence seamlessly will involve identifying and incorporating individuals’ specialized skill sets in appropriate tasks. Training leaders to be more reflective and critical thinkers will enable them to better incorporate military integration into their operations.
November 10, 2022
Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resilience in the Context of Conflict Dynamics and International Public Opinion

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.
September 28, 2022
Polyak, M. (President, Ipsos, North America Analytics); Kagan, F. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China

Escalation between China and Taiwan over Taiwan’s sovereignty is increasing, leaving the US and its allies with few options if China blockades Taiwan. While Taiwan nearly monopolizes the production of advanced semiconductor chips, this monopoly does not shield it from Chinese aggression. Dr. Martin argued that its control of advanced semi-conductor production may give it a reason to bargain with China. This reason is partly because Taiwan relies heavily on China for both its exports and imports. Furthermore, China is significantly better positioned economically to outlast Taiwan if it becomes sanctioned for overt aggression.
September 21, 2022
Martin, B. (Senior Policy Researcher & Director of the Institute for Supply Chain Security, RAND); Gunness, K. (Senior Policy Researcher, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Misinformation in Africa: An Overview of Current and Future Research

There is an increasing global concern relating to information disorder, including its effects on the Global South. Information disorder, as defined by the speakers, includes misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation. Much of the conversation surrounding information disorder focuses on social media; however, it is not a new phenomenon and has been historically prevalent in newspapers, television, and other forms of legacy media. Prof. Wasserman added that popular cultural forms of communication, like music and satire, have even fulfilled the journalistic function for some people, undermining the power of traditional journalism media even further.
October 11, 2022
Professor Herman Wasserman (University of Cape Town, South Africa) and Dr. Dani Madrid-Morales (University of Sheffield)
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SMA Speaker Series

Voices of China: A Conversation with Matthew Tye

China’s ruling government, led by President Xi Jinping, is becoming increasingly authoritarian and controlling over China’s media environment; however, China’s media and society was not always this restrictive. Mr. Tye’s presentation focused on China’s transition towards authoritarianism, which he witnessed first-hand while living there for nearly a decade. From 2008 to 2012, encountered a sense of optimism overall in China. Foreigners were treated with respect and friendliness, and China’s government relaxed its authoritarian policies in favor of economic growth. Mr. Tye stated that China even began borrowing US brands—like the NBA—for marketing campaigns in major city squares. He also described a strong developmental divide between rural and urban communities throughout China.
September 7, 2022
Tye, M. (Laowhy86 Media)
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SMA Speaker Series

China in Sri Lanka and the Political Economic Crisis

Mr. Abeyagoonasekera began the presentation by stating that China’s loans and investments in Sri Lanka are ultimately creating a debt trap.
August 2, 2022
Abeyagoonasekera, A. (The Millennium Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

Living Through the End of the World

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics) as part of its SMA “Anticipating the Future Operational Environment” (AFOE) Speaker Series.
July 12, 2022
Peter Zeihan (Zeihan on Geopolitics)
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SMA Speaker Series

Identifying and Exploiting Fleeting Opportunities in Complex Systems

Modern strategic competition is forcing decision-making to occur more quickly in an increasingly cluttered information environment.
July 7, 2022
John Bicknell
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real Way to Succeed in a Rivalry: The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

A country’s societal dynamism is directly linked to its international competitiveness, according to Dr. Mazarr. There are seven societal characteristics related to a country’s international competitiveness: national ambition and will, unified national identity, shared opportunity, activity, effective government institutions, learning and adapting mentally, and diversity and pluralism.
July 6, 2022
Michael Mazarr
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SMA Speaker Series

Weaponizing Critical Resources on a Changing Planet

Understanding an actors’ ability to weaponize resources is reliant on a large pool of available and diverse data. Too often, research on resource vulnerability and climate change is driven by philosophy and opinions, commented Dr. Alessa.
June 14, 2022
Dr. Lillian Alessa
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SMA Speaker Series

The CCP’s Ambitions to Control and Manipulate Information Spaces: Theory and Practice

China’s single ruling party—the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—is relying on messaging, coercive tactics, and violence to control the information environment (IE), both domestically and internationally.
June 22, 2022
Mareike Ohlberg
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SMA Speaker Series

The Perfect Imbalance of the Sino-Russian Relationship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova (Head of the Political Science Doctoral Programme & Director of the China Studies Centre, Riga Stradins University, Latvia) as part of its SMA EUCOM / INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
June 7, 2022
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova
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SMA Speaker Series

Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China’s Coercion Against US Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Cristina Garafola (Associate Policy Researcher, RAND) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Series.
May 24, 2022
Cristina Garafola
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SMA Speaker Series

How America Can Seize Its Great-Power Opportunity

Past US foreign security policies primarily focused on adversaries’ capabilities and objectives rather than its own ability to project its desired messages and worldview.
May 4, 2022
Mr. Ali Wyne
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of European Security

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. James Goldgeier (Visiting Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University; Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution; & Professor of International Relations, School of International Service, American University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
April 21, 2022
Dr. James Goldgeier
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SMA Speaker Series

The Revenge of Power: How to Defeat the Autocrats Who Are Reinventing 21st Century Politics

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Moisés Naím (Distinguished Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and moderator Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology, University College London, New America, and Georgetown University) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
April 19, 2022
Dr. Moisés Naím
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SMA Speaker Series

The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's China

SMA hosted a speaker session with The Honorable Kevin Rudd (President & Chief Executive Officer, Asia Society; 26th Prime Minister of Australia) as part of its SMA NDU (INSS/PRISM) Speaker Series.
March 30, 2022
Kevin Rudd
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SMA Speaker Series

War: How Conflict Shaped Us

SMA hosted a speaker session with Prof. Margaret MacMillan (Professor of International History, Oxford University) as part of its SMA NDU (INSS/PRISM) Speaker Series.
March 10, 2022
Margaret MacMillan
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SMA Speaker Series

Where Does France Stand In the Upheaval of the World?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Tsiporah Fried (Senior Advisor to the Vice Chairman of the French Joint Chiefs of Staff) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 24, 2022
Tsiporah Fried
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SMA Speaker Series

Poland's New Model Army

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jacek Bartosiak (Founder and Owner, Strategy & Future; Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 4, 2022
Jacek Bartosiak
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SMA Speaker Series

Security Implications of Germany’s Federal Election—An Interim Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. David R. Dorondo (Western Carolina University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Session.
November 4, 2021
David Dorondo Biography
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion

Please join SMA for its second SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion: a two-hour companion event to our recently released SMA Perspectives volume, US versus China: Promoting “Constructive Competition” to Avoid “Destructive Competition.” The discussion will feature a panel discussion among several of the paper’s contributors, drawing out key insights from, and connections between, the chapters.
November 16, 2021
Todd Veazie and Dr. Hriar “Doc” Cabayan
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SMA Speaker Series

What is the Real Story of China in Africa?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Deborah Bräutigam (Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy & Director of the SAIS China Africa Research Initiative (CARI), Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)) as part of its SMA AFRICOM/INDOPACOM Speaker Session.
September 15, 2021
Dr. Deborah Bräutigam
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SMA Speaker Series

Perspectives and Insights From the Moscow Security Conference and Associated Local Visits

SMA hosted a speaker session with BG (Ret) Peter Zwack (Global Fellow, The Wilson Center & Adjunct Fellow, Salve Regina University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
August 12, 2021
Brigadier General Peter B Zwack (Ret.)
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SMA Speaker Series

Escalation Management in Gray Zone Crises: The Proxy Factor

This research, supported by the DoD’s Minerva Research Initiative, looked at International Crisis Behavioral Project data on how crises evolve over time. The team asked what do we understand from the data on the role that proxies (often violent non-state actors) have on determining the direction and outcome of a crisis; that is, does the use of a proxy escalate a conflict, make violence more likely, and/or shield the patron state from retribution. Mr. Ellis defined a proxy conflict as a state acting as a patron to a client and offering funding, training, support, and protection. A patron state is likely to support a proxy for two reasons: a) to gain a supplementary military force, and b) to avoid attribution and counter attacks from the defending state.
July 29, 2021
Egle E. Murauskaite and Devin Ellis
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SMA Speaker Series

Israel After Netanyahu: Anchored in a One-State Reality

According to Dr. Lustick, the current dispute over the West Bank and the disputed sovereignty of the Israeli government will not end in an ideal way for any group involved. He reasoned that the Palestinian government is not a viable authority and because of this the “two states” solution, which would divide Israel, is no longer viable. Instead, the Palestinian authorities are mostly used by citizens of Arab decent to interact with Israeli authorities. The Israeli government learned early on that it could not give anything to the Palestinians, which they would accept. However, they believed that they could negotiate with Palestinian moderates, and isolate extremists.
July 23, 2021
Dr. Ian Lustick
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SMA Speaker Series

How to Engage with China

SMA hosted a panel discussion with Ms. Anna Ashton (Vice President of Government Affairs, US-China Business Council), Dr. Rachel Esplin Odell (Research Fellow, East Asia Program, The Quincy Institute), and Dr. Kori Schake (Director of China Policy, The American Enterprise Institute) as a part of its SMA INSS/PRISM Speaker Series.
July 16, 2021
Anna Ashton, Rachel Esplin Odell, and Kori Schake
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SMA Speaker Series

The Uyghurs of China: Cultural Genocide in the Name of Counterterrorism

The Uyghur ethnic group comprises less than one percent of China’s overall population. However, the Uyghurs, who are majority Muslim, are viewed by the Chinese Communist Party(CCP) as a potential threat to China’s stability. China has viewed the Uyghurs as a threat to Chinese stability since the Qing Dynasty conquered the region and named it Xinjiang or “new frontier.” The CCP has attempted to justify its suppression of the Uyghur population by linking Uyghur separatist groups to the global war on terror. Dr. Roberts emphasized, however, that Uyghur separatist organizations, including a collection of several groups that have been called The Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), either have weak connections to larger terrorist organizations, such as Al Qaeda, or do not have a presence inside of China.
June 17, 2021
Sean R. Roberts
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SMA Speaker Series

What Does China Want?

LTG McMaster described the current geopolitical competition between Western countries and China as a competition between open democracies and closed authoritarian states. He believes that in this competition, democracies are currently at a disadvantage to closed authoritarian societies because of self-inflicted wounds, including a belief that the world will naturally liberalize and that true authoritarian countries will not be able to gain popularity with civilian populations. The assumption that authoritarian countries cannot compete with democracies was described bt LTG McMaster as strategic narcissism, which can be countered by increases in strategic empathy, a reexamination of US leaders’ perceptions of the world, and a realization that the US is in a great power competition (GPC).
April 23, 2021
H.R. McMaster
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SMA Speaker Series

Rector Federica Mogherini Reprise

Rector Federica Mogherini fielded questions related to her prior presentation, entitled “The Role of Europe in the New Great Power Competition,” in which she focused on the EU’s and NATO’s role in managing European relations with China and Russia. She also discussed the EU’s and US’s trans-Atlantic partnership, while highlighting their convergent and divergent interests.
March 29, 2021
Federica Mogherini
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Geopolitics)

NSI Publication

Trajectory of U.S./North Korean Nuclear War

Hours after the Washington Post broke the story that North Korea may have miniaturized a nuclear warhead, enabling its ICBM to deliver a nuclear blow to U.S. soil, President Trump announced that if North Korea continues to provoke, will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Smoke, Mirrors, and Mayhem: The Good Fight Remixed

The Army University Press created the Future Warfare Writing Program to generate ideas about possible complexities of future warfare, as presented in the U.S. Army Operating Concept.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Social Science to Understand Strategic Threat

During the Cold War era, the strategic threat against the US was clear. The country responded clearly with a policy toward the Soviet threat that centered on deterrence, containment, and mutually assured destruction. To enforce this policy, the US created a strategic triad composed of nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles, Trident nuclear submarines, and long-range strategic bombers. Today, however, our security environment is profoundly different.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion

Please join SMA for its second SMA Perspectives Virtual Discussion: a two-hour companion event to our recently released SMA Perspectives volume, US versus China: Promoting “Constructive Competition” to Avoid “Destructive Competition.”
Year Published:
2021
View Publication
NSI Publication

Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends

Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven by pragmatic considerations. Many described the Iran-Russia and Iran- China relationships as primarily transactional, with each having something concrete the other needs to meet their domestic economic growth and development needs.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

The Abraham Accords and Iran’s Unconventional Warfare Activities

The Abraham Accords normalizing diplomatic and economic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Israel and Bahrain, as well as a less robust agreement with Sudan, represent a historic turning point for Israel. Together with the Camp David Accords (Egypt) and the 1994 Peace Accord (Jordan), the Abraham Accords bring to five the number of Arab states that have officially recognized Israel’s right to exist—a claim that states in the Gulf and Near East have denied since Israel was founded.
Year Published:
2020
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