Ukrainian Resilience in the Context of Conflict Dynamics and International Public Opinion

Speaker(s): Polyak, M. (President, Ipsos, North America Analytics); Kagan, F. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute)

Date: 28 September 2022

Speaker Session Summary

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Mark Polyak (President, Ipsos, North America Analytics), Dr. Frederick W. Kagan (Senior Fellow & Director of the Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute), and Dr. Darrell Bricker (Global CEO, Ipsos Public Affairs) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only incurred a human cost, but also an economic one—especially on front-line cities. Mr. Polyak stated that unemployment in these cities has risen significantly since the beginning of the war. Most Ukrainians in cities close to or on the frontline said that they are struggling to find employment. However, most of the people who have jobs continue to get paid on time, which demonstrates a strong resilience among local Ukrainian economic institutions and businesses. Other concerns of citizens in frontline cities include access to clean water and social support services, such as childcare and mental health services. Dr. Bricker demonstrated through Ipsos poll data that unless a country is geographically close to a conflict, then its citizens are not overly concerned about inter-state conflict or its economic impacts. Only 8% of people globally listed inter-state conflict as a primary concern in 2022. However, European countries—especially Eastern European countries—listed it as a primary concern. Many European citizens also believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a primary driver of global inflation. Inflation replaced the COVID-19 pandemic as the primary concern of global citizens in 2022.