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SMA Publications (Tagged: Strategic Communication)

SMA Publication

11th Annual SMA Conference – “A Utopian or Dystopian Future, or Merely Muddling Through?”

This Conference assessed what today we rightly or wrongly perceive as historically unprecedented changes from the perspectives of politics and history, sociology, biology, information science, and technological innovation. There is a large body of scientific work that supports the notion that human societies are complex adaptive systems with emergent properties that contain core commonalities, but the actions of which cannot be predicted with certainty. Given the properties of human cognition and social behavior, the question remains: How might nations and societies best position themselves to prepare for and manage the risks associated with rapid change under conditions of fundamental uncertainty? The conference speakers and panelists addressed these issues relevant to key domains and dimensions of global security.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Multi-Step Approach Closing DOD's Cognitive Capability Gap

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team conducted a year-long project for USSOCOM on the growing prevalence of Competition Short of Armed Conflict (CSAC), or use of “Gray Zone” tactics by US adversaries. Key findings from the study include first, the immediate need to incorporate the “human / cognitive domain” into military planning to avoid the strategic surprise that gray zone tactics intend. Second, the study highlighted the current deficit in the joint force of operationally-applicable human / cognitive domain information and expertise. During its final project review, the study’s Senior Review Group (SRG) noted that “…the changing nature of conflict means that the US Department of Defense (DOD) needs to start changing the way it thinks as a whole, and the results of this SMA effort can play a valuable role” in broadening our understanding of the strategic and operational environment to incorporate the human/cognitive aspects of military operations. Reflecting on the deficit in US capabilities in the cognitive environment the SRG asked: “Who is going to craft the appropriate messages? Who is going to provide the necessary tools? Who is going to use these tools? These are questions that we need to answer.”
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Influence in an Age of Rising Connectedness

A strong argument can be made that we are moving toward a pluralized, multipolar world, in which military and economic sources of power are widely distributed. Technologies (e.g., the Internet and rapid means of mass migration) are making nation states increasingly more porous, and a resurgence of nationalism and other forms of ethnic or religious identity politics has solidified some states and weakened others. Given these properties of human development, the question remains as to how nations and societies position themselves to ride these revolutionary changes with some degree of confidence. The continuance of these factors may change the way that the US, its partners, and its adversaries consider and prioritize influence, both within the state and across interstate borders. The DOD is evolving in ways that demand a more synergistic approach than we have traditionally taken across the human and technical dimensions. To date, military operations have characteristically focused on compelling adversaries through the threat or application of force to achieve victory (i.e. “control”). Changing environmental factors, increased activism by non-state actors, technology, and recent lessons learned suggest that the DOD will be challenged to adopt revised, if not entirely new approaches, to affect and direct the outcomes of military operations. Toward such ends, the DOD will need to focus upon the factors and forces that exert the necessary influence to produce desired behavioral outcomes across complex and intermeshed human and technical systems.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

10th Annual SMA Conference - From Control to Influence

The Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) office hosted the 10th Annual SMA Conference on 25-26 April 2017 at Joint Base Andrews. This year’s conference, formally titled “From Control to Influence? A View of—and Vision for—the Future,” brought together a multidisciplinary group of participants to consider how the US and its allies can more effectively counter the influence that recently re-emerging, capable states (such as China and Russia) and non-state actors (such as ISIS) exert on their neighbors and/or third parties through multiple elements of power.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 1 A Compendium of Messaging Reports

This is Part 1 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Putin's Information Warfare in Ukraine

Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Counter Information Messaging

To be most effective, messaging need to be targeted to specific populations, politically/ethnically correct, and entertaining. First, while there is a need for transnational messages (often those that seek to introduce alternative narratives—a mass targeting technique that uses non-linear messaging to achieve desired outcomes [see Beutel and Ruston]), messaging is most effective when it is tailored to local circumstances; presented by trusted, local voices; and in a format preferred by the target audience (radio, television, social media, religious services, etc.). This requires that information operators clearly understand the motivations, interests, and world views of potential adherents (Zalman). Based on analysis of extremist narratives by Scott Ruston at Arizona State University, an effective system of alternative narratives must recognize the need for justice, recognize threats faced by the target audience, must offer some route to glory (resolution), and must offer some subjection to a higher ideal (whether that is family, tribe, or nation). Nuanced understanding of the target audience can serve to not only contextualize the type of messaging effort and its aims but also to provide a necessary constraint upon the expected return of these programs (Huckabey & Picucci).
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Counter-Da'esh Influence Operations

At the request of Joint Staff, the SMA program, in coordination with United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), participated in a second Counter-Da’esh Messaging Simulation that brought together nearly 100 Psychological Operation (PSYOP) operators, USG and international observers, interagency representatives, population experts from Iraq and North Africa, Da’esh experts, universities, and think tanks. This exercise served as both a test bed for messaging techniques and a training opportunity for PSYOP operators.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Maneuver and Engagement in the Narrative Space

The paper leverages and melds the latest thinking of academic and operational subject matter experts in fields of organizational and social dynamics, network analysis, psychology, information operations and narrative development, social media analysis, and doctrine development related to aspects of maneuver and engagement in the narrative space.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions in Russian Media

This study sought to examine future political, security, societal and economic trends to identify where U.S. interests are in cooperation or conflict with Russian interests, and in particular, identify leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

7th Annual SMA Conference - What Now, What Next?

The 7th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 13-14 November 2013. The conference was focused on global megatrends and their implications in all spheres of national security. It is no exaggeration to state that the world today is a very different place than it was barely 12 years ago when the war against al Qaida and its affiliates began. As we move forward, continuing advances in various spheres such as the sociotechnical world will present both challenges and opportunities. The conference examined these and related themes and highlighted new insights from the social and neurosciences.
Year Published:
2013
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SMA Publication

World in Transformation: Challenges | Opportunities

The 6th Annual Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at Joint Base Andrews from 6-8 November 2012. The theme of the conference was A World in Transformation: Challenges and Opportunities. A significant portion of the conference addressed the needs of the Geographical Commands. Days One and Two were unclassified, while Day Three was held at the SECRET level.1 As in previous years, representatives from the Geographical Commands were present throughout the conference. On Day Two and on Day Three, representatives discussed the Geographical Commands’ pressing needs to provide the SMA community with an opportunity to mine its wide network of experts to assist in identifying capabilities that can match the Commands’ needs. What resulted was a lively discussion, which is captured in this document.
Year Published:
2012
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SMA Publication

5th Annual SMA Conference - State/Non-State Actors

The 5th Annual Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) Conference was held at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland from 29-30 November 2011. The SMA program is prioritized by the Joint Staff and executed by ASD (R&E) RFD. The focus of the SMA Conference was on influence strategies of state and non-state actors as well as the impact of the social and neurobiological sciences on key aspects of national security. The conference also hosted special sessions on geospatial applications, influence and deterrence in cyber space, and complex adaptive systems. Each session was designed to draw on diverse perspectives and insights from across the United States Government (USG), industry, and academia as well as from around the globe.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

From the Mind to the Feet: Assessing the Perception-to-Intent-to-Action Dynamic

The purpose of From the Mind to the Feet is to open a much deeper dialogue about gauging intent than currently exists ei- ther in operational or academic arenas. It is intended to serve military and civilian defense leaders, deterrence and policy planners, and practitioners with a review of the basic concepts and state-of-the-art understanding of intent. It is organized into two sections: operational and academic perspectives on intent.
Year Published:
2011
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SMA Publication

Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism

Dr. Hriar Cabayan, OSD, welcomed the participants on behalf of the Department of Defense (DoD), the State Department (DoS), and the RAND Corporation to the Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism workshop held from 19-20 May 2010 at Gallup World Headquarters in Washington, DC. The workshop focused on strategic communications and violent extremism and was designed to inform decision makers and was not intended as a forum for policy discussion. The workshop emerged from an SMA- and AFRL-sponsored white paper entitled Protecting the Homeland from International and Domestic Terrorism for Counter-radicalization and Disengagement. As the white paper was being written, it came to Dr Cabayan’s attention that Dr. Paul Davis at the RAND Corporation was writing an integrative literature review on the subject. The RAND report was entitled Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with Al-Qaeda. Building on that, CAPT Wayne Porter wrote a paper on the strategic campaign to counter and delegitimize violent extremism, which resulted in the genesis of this workshop.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain

This report details Russian and Chinese media presentations of operations and intentions in the space domain to their respective populations. These presentations provide us insight into how members of these nation states understand their government’s intentions and activities in the space domain, the opportunities and challenges their government’s face in approaching those intentions and activities, the alliances and norms necessary for space usage, and which actors are attempting to destabilizing the space domain.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Operations in the Information Environment: Course of Action Analysis Exercise

The ICONS Project, a wargaming and simulation organization at the University of Maryland, was asked by the Joint Staff, J39, DDGO, Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (SMA), to design, execute, and analyze a Table Top Exercise (TTX) in support of the Integration of Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) research
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

US versus China: Promoting 'Constructive Competition' to Avoid 'Destructive Competition' (Volume II)

It is not an exaggeration to state that China is and will remain a significant challenge to the US on all aspects of national power for the foreseeable future. This situation has been in the making for quite some time. This SMA Perspectives paper will not delve into the historical roots of why the US got to where it is, however. Nor will it dwell on the purely military aspects of the conflict. These are important considerations that are amply discussed elsewhere in numerous scholarly publications. This SMA Perspectives paper is focused on the following question: “How should the US manage the US-China relations so that they stay below the level of conflict and destructive competition?” In this context, the paper distinguishes “constructive competition” from “destructive competition.”
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Information in Joint Operations: Insights for Commanders and Planners From Competitive Risk Modeling

George Mason University (GMU) worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to identify risks to competition effectiveness that could be mitigated through improved integration of information into joint and unified action operations. The initial focus was aligned with evolving Command and Control of the Information Environment (C2OIE) doctrinal concepts, but later shifted from strategic level integration to integration of information into unified action activities at the operational level. It is very difficult to achieve information enabling event alignment across the Whole of Government because there is no one responsible for this alignment at any planning level (Strategic, Operational, or Execution).
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Future Character of Information in Strategy: Forged by Cognition and Technology

The basic cognitive nature of how human brains process information hasn’t changed for millennia, including how we use information in strategy. Information is crucial for strategy aimed at others, whether that is outwitting adversaries or cooperating with allies. And even a superb strategy must be conveyed to one’s own people.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Experimental Red Teaming to Support Integration of Information in Joint Operations

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.As part of the modeling and simulation phase of the IIJO effort, the Center for Advanced Red
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Information Maneuver in Military Operations

Treating information as a form of maneuver can provide powerful advantages to commanders and political leaders responsible for US and partner national security. The components of successful maneuver first proposed by van Creveld, Canby, & Brower in 1994—positioning, tempo, Schwerpunkt, surprise and deception, cross-domain synergy, flexibility, unity of effort, and opportunism—can also serve as elements of a framework to anticipate an adversary’s integrated use of information to undermine US and partner interests.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Measuring Information Effects

The objective of the Integrating Information into Joint Operations (IIJO) project is to assess the ways in which the Joint Force can most effectively integrate information1 into its activities across the competition-conflict continuum. During the course of this project, we have spoken to many people familiar with both Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of State (DOS) efforts to integrate information and shape the information environment (IE); their overall assessment has been remarkably consistent.2 Namely, information is playing an increasingly important role in states’ ability to protect and further their national interests, but the United States is not currently equipped or positioned to counter the scope and scale of our adversaries’ information activities.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Effective Communication: Lessons Learned From Those Outside the US Government and Military

This report integrates key insights and lessons learned from the SMA IIJO effort about how those outside of the US government and military (i.e., non-government and private sector organizations) use messaging and communication to influence and inform. Ultimately, what emerges is a collection of best practices for effective communication. The source material for this report consists of final deliverables produced as part of the SMA IIJO effort. In particular, the findings presented in this report are largely built upon the integration of the work done as part of the IIJO Quick Looks and IIJO Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) lines of effort.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Present and Future Challenges to Maintaining Balance Between Global Cooperation and Competition (Volume I)

The future operating environment will present US military leaders and planners with both familiar and unfamiliar problem sets that will test the DoD and partner nations’ ability to maintain strategic stability. These future challenges are anticipated to be significantly different from those of recent decades. The two overarching challenges are contested norms and persistent disorder. It is expected that adversaries will continue to pursue their national objectives by creatively combining conventional and non-conventional methods to operate below a threshold that they believe would invoke a direct military or other damaging response from the United States or its allies.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

On Education and Training for Operations in the Information Environment

The Services and the Joint Staff provide both professional military education as well as academic education through the various schools, colleges and academies. These elements are currently working on developing courses and modifying curricula to address the guidance provided by the 15 May 2020 policy CJCSI 1800.01F. However, there is need for a short-term, temporary approach to inculcate rapidly the force across all levels on the challenges of operating in the information environment. Such an approach, based on a similar challenge faced by the USAF in the early 2000s, is outlined in a short paper.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Assessments of Operations in the Information Environment for the Eastern Mediterranean and South China Sea

In support of the USAF and the SMA, the TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulations Office (M&SO) employed the Athena Simulation to assess a series of research questions posed by the Air Force, as well as to test a series of explorable insights (hypotheses) developed during the project’s Net Assessment and Subject Matter Expert (SME) engagements. A total of 35 explorable insights were identified during the Net Assessment from which four specific study topics were derived for analysis utilizing the Athena Simulation. These included:
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Escalation Management in 21st Century Operations in the Information Environment

We argue that the concept of escalation thresholds remains salient in national security and may be even more important than ever. However, the Cold War model is no longer useful given the multi-dimensional and complex nature of information in today’s world. We argue that escalation thresholds regarding information need to be conceived of in terms of complex systems. Qualitatively, analysts and decision makers must learn to intuit the dynamics of information in a complex world. Quantitatively, analysts must bring to bear complexity theory, and appropriate modeling and data collection. These changes have implications across the spectrum of activities that include doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Retransmitting the Caliphate

The Islamic State’s complete loss of territorial control in Iraq and Syria in 2019 forced its central media unit to adapt in order to continue to produce the high-quality products for which it had become infamous. This paper evaluates this transformation, and measures both output, themes, and quality of product in the years since the collapse of the territorial caliphate. We distill some of the elements the group has used to successfully produce and disseminate products from strengthening affiliates abroad, and the impact the central media has had on these distant media cells. Through our research regarding non-state actor influence operations, a sense of the larger, comprehensive character of the ever-evolving information environment can be derived.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Three N Approach to Strategies for United States Government Information Operations

This paper seeks to answer the following question: What can we learn from the process of radicalization into extremism that can be applied to information operations to make them more successful? We contend that the 3 N model of radicalization applies more generally to the process whereby information is absorbed and is having impact. This process assumes that information absorption and impact are driven by motivation—that is, human needs. The 3 Ns refer to needs, narratives, and networks, which together help us understand why some individuals become radicalized. Radicalization, the internalization of an extremist narrative, is driven by exposure to an extremist narrative validated by a social network of trusted others who—through the narrative—provide a means to satisfy the crucial human need for significance
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Using Messaging and Communication to Influence and Inform: Insights from the Private Sector – An Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q4] What are relevant insights from the private sector with respect to using messaging and communication to influence and inform different audiences?
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

How [Culture] Change Happens: A Roadmap of What Works

Change is hard; it humbles us all. Yet, it is possible to succeed. This article explores the why, what, who and how of successful change initiatives. Despite wildly different organizational cultures in the U.S. Navy, Walt Disney, Major League Baseball teams, Police Departments, and in the technology and banking sectors, common practices employed by change champions yielded success. This article will demonstrate the importance of messaging change clearly, demonstrating how to live the change, aligning your people’s behaviors with new organizational values, using data to make change actionable and your organization accountable and cultivating strategic patience to sustain change initiatives over time. We hope this invited perspective provides confidence among the curious that, despite how difficult undertaking change is – and the many competing perspectives in the marketplace about how to do it well – this roadmap can set you up for success.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Transactional Communication Model

This report presents a model for understanding the core communication process, and elaborates on mechanisms to strengthen it. We begin with an overview of the core communication process itself then discuss where and how factors internal and external to the communication process can influence the effectiveness of message transmission and interpretation. As the theoretical foundations of the model are covered in a companion IIJO Quick Look, “The Development of Communication Models,” in this report, we have kept the theoretical section to brief definitions of the key terms.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Vulnerabilities to Cognitive Biases in the OODA Loop Process

A recent Quick Look prepared as part of a Joint Staff and Air Force (A3)-sponsored effort to examine the effectiveness of Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) examines how cognitive biases can affect the communication process (Polansky & Rieger, 2020). During review of that analysis, a discussion arose regarding how cognitive biases can affect not only communication, but also decision-making, including more structured processes such as the OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) Loop analytical framework. To address those questions and concerns, in the present paper, we explore how some common types of cognitive bias can impact an OODA Loop analysis, potentially leading to a sub-optimal result.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Propaganda: Indexing and Framing and the Tools of Disinformation

Propaganda has evolved significantly alongside the economic and technologically-driven forces of globalization. What was once the domain of pamphlets, posters, radio, and television has adapted within an ever-expanding virtual landscape of information, as societies are increasingly linked across social and digital networks. This change has brought new challenges to countering propaganda’s effect, as the expansion of media platforms has made determining what propaganda is increasingly challenging. Depending on one’s definition, propaganda can include everything from a Chinese anime biography of Karl Marx to digital armies of coordinated social media accounts converging on targets. Given the rapidly evolving manifestations of propaganda, and the threats posed, it is important to understand the fundamental operations of how propaganda works, how it functions in societies, and how it can be countered (Nemr & Gangware, 2019).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Inoculation Theory

This Quick Look specifically assesses and describes how one area of social scientific research, called Inoculation Theory, can be used to build individual resistance to attitude change, especially as it relates to force protection against misinformation, fake news, and conspiracy theories.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Communicative Power in a Globalized “Network Society”

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

The Development of Communication Models

In July 2019, the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) endorsed a list of specific actions for the Operations in the Information Environment (OIE) DOTMLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR). A requested action under item 1b asks for a “process to develop a baseline understanding of the IE (Information Environment) and subsequently modify the model of relevant actor perceptions, attitudes, and other elements that drive behaviors.”
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Influencing Public Behavior: Takeaways From Public Communication Scholarship

Effective communication is a complex and fragile human process that requires strategic design, careful monitoring, and responsive adaptation (Kreps & Neuhauser, 2010). This report reviews scholarship on public communication campaigns and provides insights into six characteristics of effective communication campaigns.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

SMA Prior Work in the Information Environment: An Annotated Bibliography

The current SMA project, Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO), builds on a strong foundation of prior SMA work on influence and information operations. The themes underlying the research reflect shifting priorities as SMA has responded to requests ranging counterterrorism to deterrence to great power competition.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Cognitive Biases: Causes, Effects, and Implications for Effective Messaging

In the current environment of contested norms, increasing great power competition, and rapid technological change, protecting and furthering US interests requires the ability to compete effectively in the information environment (IE). In recent years, the IE has seen the proliferation of actors, channels of communication, and messages. To compete in this crowded and contested environment, we must be able to communicate effectively. Yet, the IE is complicated, available information is often vast and imperfect, time is constrained, and additionally, we are limited by our own cognitive capacity.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Rethinking Communication Influence from a Strategic Communication Approach

For over a decade, many within US defense and interagency circles maintain a belief they are ‘losing’ the communication influence battle, one its adversaries are excelling at due to seemingly better strategy and reach. Peer competitor infiltration into American elections, radical groups facilitating foreign fighter flow over chat applications, and/or failed attempts to counter narratives should reason for a glaring need for the US to change strategy. But surprisingly little or none of this strategic shift is occurring.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

12th Annual SMA Conference- The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World

The 12th Annual SMA Conference, entitled “The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World,” was held 21-22 May 2019 at the General Jacob E. Smart Conference Center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. The conference theme was defined as:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

On the Horizon: Security Challenges at the Nexus of State and Non-State Actors and Emerging/Disruptive Technologies

Innovation and new technologies have many positive attributes and provide significant improvement to humanity, much that is likely unforeseen at the time of initial discovery. The unpredictability of the technology trajectories can lead to significant negative consequences. This white paper aims to discuss the massive leaps in innovation and understand what this means for national security.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Negotiating with the Leaders of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: Inferences from Thematic Content Analysis

The UBC research group assessed psychological processes of six DPRK leaders, including Kim Jong-un, using thematic content analysis for integrative complexity and motive imagery, and Profiler Plus® computer-scored measures of Belief in Ability to Control Events (BACE), Distrust, and Self-Confidence. Despite some individual differences, in general the leaders were low in complexity, higher in power motivation than other motives, and high in BACE and distrust. This pattern indicates closed-mindedness, rigid thinking and planning, lack of perceptiveness in considering or trusting outsiders’ viewpoints and goals, a need for rapid and definite closure, and low probability of negotiating mutual concessions or flexibility in interaction. When under increased tension, the DPRK leaders’ profiles showed even higher distrust and need for power, somewhat increased affiliation need, and reduced motivation for achievement. These patterns indicate a low likelihood of significant changes of basic beliefs, motives, and strategies, despite possible overt assertions of such changes.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Media Narrative Analysis: Iranian, Russian, and Chinese News Coverage of the Future of Afghanistan

This project analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media narratives concerning interests in, and future prospects of, Afghanistan stability through three phases: Phase I (May-June, 2018; 79 articles), Phase II, (July-August, 2018; 124 articles), Phase III (October-September, 2018; 180 articles). Across these three phases, the analysis revealed consistent narrative patterns regarding the following:
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Comparative Analysis of Kim Family Political Discourse

This publication was released as part of SMA’s Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula project. For more information regarding this project, please click here.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Strategic Communication)

SMA Speaker Series

Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands

SMA hosted a panel with Mr. Michael A. Clark (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM), Ms. Kayse Jansen (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5), Mr. James “JJ” Jenista (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD), Mr. Robert C. Jones (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group), Mr. Jimmy Krakar (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM), Ms. Lesley Kucharski (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), Dr. Robert M. Toguchi (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC), Col David W. Walker (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5), and Ms. Michele K. Wolfe (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
January 25, 2023
Clark, M. (Director for Acquisition and Technology (J9), USCYBERCOM); Jansen, K. (Branch Chief, Deterrence Analysis and Outreach, Plans and Policy Directorate, USSTRATCOM/J5); Jenista, J. (Air Force Civilian, Joint Training, Exercise, and Wargaming Directorate (J7), USNORTHCOM & NORAD); Jones, R. (Senior Strategist, USSOCOM J5-JSOU Donovan Integration Group); Krakar, J. (Academic Coordinator, USEUCOM); Kucharski, L. (Analyst, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory); Toguchi, R. (Chief, Concepts Division, Force Modernization Directorate (FMD), USASOC); Walker, D. (Policy Division Chief, USCENTCOM CCJ5); Wolfe, M. (Senior Operations Research Analyst, USAFRICOM)
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SMA Speaker Series

An Agenda for Disinformation Research

Dr. Garland defined disinformation as “false misleading or inaccurate information disseminated with the intent to deceive.” Disinformation must be countered because it undermines individuals’ trust in US institutions and destroys society’s shared reality, increasing polarization and societal conflict.
July 20, 2021
Joshua Garland
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SMA Speaker Series

The Defender's Dilemma: Why countering grayzone aggression is so difficult (and what options Western governments do have)

Western governments, including the United States, face significant challenges in identifying gray zone aggression. This form of aggression is often difficult to detect before the attack is fully underway, as it can originate from any source at any time.
September 5, 2024
Elisabeth Braw
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SMA Speaker Series

On Persuasion

During his presentation, Mr. Wouters delved into the original model developed by the Cialdini Institute, alongside two recently-devised tools tailored for assessing a target audience’s interests and executing an influence campaign.
February 6, 2024
Bas Wouters
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SMA Speaker Series

Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World

During the last 25 years, China has strengthened its ability to economically coerce governments, companies, multilateral institutions, and individuals, bringing them in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) desires. She summarized China’s statecraft as a “clearly communicated set of rewards and punishments based on gatekeeping access to China’s huge markets, capital, and investments.” China uses its influence over markets as a vector for measuring illiberal political will among corporations and governments. China’s economic statecraft is purely political in nature. This means that any government, corporation, or individual who does not abide by the CCP’s guidelines are subject to sanctions. Ms. Allen emphasized that this is a juxtaposition to US and Western statecraft, in which sanctions are used to further multilateral goals of the liberal order.
October 18, 2023
Ms. Bethany Allen (Axios)
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SMA Speaker Series

Influence and Perception Management Office

The Influence and Perception Management Office (IPMO) is a young office within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security (OUSD I&S). However, the need for an organization managing the US Armed Forces’ messaging has been debated for two decades among military and civilian leaders. The office’s first acting director, Mr. James Holly, emphasized that the evolving modern threat landscape has only increased the need for the IPMO over that time. During the years of IPMO’s creation, three Secretaries of Defense, under two administrations, signed off on its establishment, underscoring the need for this kind of office.
October 3, 2023
Mr. James Holly
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SMA Speaker Series

Beyond the Wire: US Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion

The presence of a US military base in a host country naturally increases interactions between that host country’s citizens and US military personnel. These interactions occur in many countries, partly because the US has maintained a 25% deployment rate since the end of WWII. Host countries—especially the local communities around the base—get a significant economic boost. US military personnel often try to use local contractors. However, there are many factors that affect the local sentiment towards US military personnel in these countries. Dr. Martinez Machain identifies these factors by using survey data from 14 countries in her new book, Beyond the Wire: US Military Deployments and Host Country Public Opinion.
June 27, 2023
Dr. Carla Martinez Machain (University at Buffalo, SUNY)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Ukrainian Army is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how cooperation between a country’s military and prominent social media influencers can be a useful tool for harnessing narrative control relating to conflicts. Dr. Helmus argued that Ukraine has been out-performing Russia in its ability to create and disseminate effective narratives surrounding the ongoing war. The success of Ukraine’s information operations is in part due to its tactic of leveraging civilian and military influencers who regularly post on social media. These influencers use their platform to share posts that highlight the loss of innocent life during Russian attacks, the resilience of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the success of Ukrainian military operations. These information operations come at virtually no cost to Ukraine because most creators are posting videos on their own volition. Dr. Helmus commented that while researchers have not been able to empirically confirm the positive effects of these social media operations, Ukrainian officials have emphasized their importance on the battlefield. While Ukraine has recently been using its media to great effect, the practice of leveraging influencers on social media is a well-used marketing strategy.
June 6, 2023
Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

CCP Weapons of Mass Persuasion

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jackie Deal (President, Long Term Strategy Group) and Ms. Ella Harvey (Public Service Fellow, John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) origin is chronically understudied despite its strategic importance. The competitive strategy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) today relies on information operations and techniques of cooption and subversion that the CCP learned during its first decade, the 1920s, coupled with approaches to conventional warfare honed soon thereafter. Dr. Deal and Ms. Harvey identified three recurring models or phases of CCP strategy: 1) internal takeover – coopting an adversary by appearing to cooperate or form a partnership with it, finding sympathizers in the nominal partner’s camp, and shaping joint activities in directions favorable to the CCP; 2) preparing for a break – exacerbating divisions within the partner’s camp and inflating the CCP’s capabilities to demoralize the partner in advance of a split; and 3) scripted military confrontation – launching a surprise attack designed to enable the CCP to exploit its superior preparation and positioning relative to the partner.
May 2, 2023
Dr. Jackie Deal (President, Long Term Strategy Group) & Ms. Ella Harvey (Public Service Fellow, John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Combined-Effects Competition & Warfare: Strategies from China and Russia

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Drohan (Professor Emeritus of Military and Strategic Studies, U.S. Air Force Academy; Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies) as part of its SMA “Strategic Deterrence Frameworks” (SDF) Speaker Series.Authoritarian regimes and democratic countries tend to view competition and warfare differently, causing an imbalance in the activities and tactics used. Authoritarian actors tend to view warfare through a whole of society lens, using many levers of power and being more likely to employ coercive tactics to achieve objectives. Dr. Drohan emphasized that democratic states often resort to all-domain warfare only after conventional deterrence fails. However, he argued that democratic states can match their authoritarian counterparts by expanding their deterrence language and answering three basic questions: a) what is being prevented or caused, b) how confrontational should the competition be, and c) how psychological or physical should the activities involved be? Regardless, if the effort is deterrent or coercive in nature, activities are the first step.
April 19, 2023
Dr. Tom Drohan (Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Exploring A Year Of Russian Television News’ Propaganda Landscape Through AI: From Speech & Visual Analysis To ChatGPT

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.The GDELT Project provides researchers with many tools for analyzing public discourse through compiling large open-source databases and utilizing text-based analysis. This data is pulled from media sources across dozens of countries and in hundreds of languages. The GDELT Project is working to create the tools to accurately collect data from television news broadcasts and other forms of video, such as Tik Tok and Instagram. Current GDELT tools can identify images, objects, logos, and even some faces in video footage. However, these tools cannot identify the context in which these items are being shown or identify a subject’s emotions. This contextual information gives researchers a valuable insight into the sender’s intent.
March 28, 2023
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Military Assistance to Ukraine in 2022: Impact Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle E. Murauskaite (University of Maryland, ICONS) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. The US has given military support to Ukraine as it defends against a Russian invasion. This support includes arms transfers, training for soldiers, and intelligence sharing during information operations. The US has been able to escalate its military support for Ukraine while also avoiding a direct military response from Russia. Also, the assumption that US arms transfers would increase arms smuggling in the region has been proven false. Instead, human trafficking has increased; however, this is a common war-time phenomenon. The aid that US and allies gave to Ukraine before the war has significantly influenced the conflict’s current state. This aid included peace-time military training of troops from 2014-2020.
March 15, 2023
Murauskaite, E. (University of Maryland, ICONS)
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SMA Speaker Series

How Kenyans Are Responding to China's Belt and Road Initiative: Adding Nuance with Hyperlocal Data

Fraym, a geospatial data company, combines survey and satellite data using advanced machine learning to produce population information with 1km2 resolution. In their presentation, Ms. Turner and Mr. Santiago discussed hyperlocal views of populations near Kenyan Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, particularly views towards the US, China, the US military, and BRI projects. Survey data and analysis show the US and China are both viewed positively in Kenya, 89% and 75% respectively; adults with favorable views of one country often have favorable views of the other. Kenyan’s sentiment toward the long-term and short-term impacts of the BRI are different. Fear of unemployment, debt, and displacement are associated with the short-term effects of BRI projects. For example, Mr. Santiago cited that 62% of Kenyan’s believe that an increase in Chinese workers will increase Kenya’s unemployment rate. There are also some fears relating to a debt trap surrounding Kenyan infrastructure and Chinese loans. However, as these fears abate over time and positive long-term effects of the BRI are felt, Kenya’s sentiment toward the BRI may become positive. Also, there is differing levels of sentiment towards increasing involvement of the US in Kenya. Reasons for support for increasing US involvement are increased security, a transfer of training and knowledge, and new advanced technology among others. Reasons for hesitancy relating to an increase of US involvement are that the US will attract enemies, general distrust, and fears that increased US involvement will bring back colonialism.
March 7, 2023
Erica Turner (Senior Data Analyst & Project Manager, Fraym) and Elijah Santiago (Senior Manager for Growth, Fraym)
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SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
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SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.
February 1, 2023
Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Belt and Road Initiative at 10 Years Old and the Future of China-Africa Relations

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has two avenues of focus—its land route, which connects China to Western Europe, and its maritime silk road, which traverses the Indo-Pacific and the eastern coast of Africa. China’s total foreign direct investment (FDI) associated with the BRI totals $1 trillion USD globally, and the value of China’s BRI investments in Africa currently makes it the largest single-state investor on the continent. However, it is worth noting that China’s global FDI has shrunk dramatically since it peaked in 2016. Its shrinking FDI is sometimes blamed on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; however, this trend predates the beginning of the pandemic, Dr. Benbdallah explained. These spending trends are occurring in Africa as well, even though most African countries officially joined the BRI during 2018 and 2019—after China began slowing down its FDI.The
March 22, 2023
Dr. Lina Benabdallah (Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Understanding Russian Coercive Signaling

The Russian military has used coercive signaling as a tool to compel and deter the US and its allies in Eastern Europe. Dr. Charap clarified that the study was completed before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it focuses on Russian actions below the threshold of kinetic force. These coercive actions have been increasing in frequency since 2014 and can be classified as low-level incidents, including violations of air or maritime space. Some incidents were simply the result of high amounts of traffic by the Russian military along its borders, particularly the flyway between St. Petersburg and Leningrad. Other instances, including the interception of US-B52 bombers by a Russian Su-27 fighter jet, are interpreted as being more targeted and aggressive. In this instance, voice recordings of the Russian fighter pilot and its commanders were attained and used to prove that it intercepted the US bomber intentionally and outside of Russian air space.
January 18, 2023
Dr. Samuel Charap (RAND) and Dr. Andrew Stravers (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

US-China Technological "Decoupling": Strategy, Policy, and Military Implications

The techno-globalist world that we once lived in is now being pulled back. What we are witnessing is not a technological divorce, but rather a reduction in the technological interdependence between the US and China. There are two primary ways in which the US government has reduced its technological interdependence with China. One method is the use of defensive controls (e.g., export controls, visa limits, investment screenings), and the other is the use of offensive controls (e.g., Chips Act, Inflation Reduction Act). In 2022, the US government has taken much more of an offensive approach than ever before. Traditional defensive tools used by the US have also been greatly intensified and implemented in new ways against China, and a series of new defensive tools have been developed as well.
December 20, 2022
Jon Bateman (Senior Fellow, Technology and International Affairs Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

The 2022 NDS in Its Historical and Strategic Big Picture: Expert Q&A

The 2022 release of the US National Defense Strategy (NDS) gives an in-depth look into the prioritization of US national security concerns and capabilities. Dr. Posen argued that it is where the military meets politics. He wishes that the NDS was more descriptive in some areas, including who the US’s partners and allies are and clearer definitions of deterrence by punishment and denial. The initial statements in the new NDS emphasize the need for prioritizing operations, threats, and resource allocation. However, Dr. Posen believes that the paper loses its focus on prioritization quickly. This prioritization needed to be further emphasized because the document discusses the importance of assisting US allies and partners with the resources they need for deterrence.
December 15, 2022
Dr. Barry Posen (Ford International Professor of Political Science, MIT; Director Emeritus, Security Studies Program, MIT); and Prof. Christopher Coker (Director, London School of Economics [LSE] IDEAS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Do National Security Communication Campaigns Work? Taking a Lesson from the Public Health Sector

The sample size of communication campaigns in support of military objectives—like the deradicalization of a population—is small. However, there is a large sample of case studies focusing on communication campaigns in support of public health initiatives. Communication campaigns assisting public health initiatives are not perfectly analogous to those made in assistance of military operations, but Dr. Helmus argued that examining their findings and best practices can still be helpful. When looking at the few communication campaigns targeting a population for security measures, the results are promising. One key example highlighting this success is a campaign in Nigeria that focuses on deradicalization and changing the perception of kidnap victims.
December 14, 2022
Helmus, T. (Senior Behavioral Scientist, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Exploitable Conditions in the 21st Century Strategic Environment

The creation of a computational model that encapsulates the increasingly complex and overwhelming world as multiple systems that can be measured empirically could have strong implications for civilian and military decision makers. NSI Inc. and SMA are currently working on such a model that is expanding on prior research conducted by TRADOC G-2. NSI has expanded on TRADOC’s original 24 exploitable conditions to create the Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) as part of the Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project for the US Joint Staff. Dr. Kuznar stated that while GECM is supported by a large corpus of qualitative research, a computational model has been built to empirically test it through network and system dynamics. GECM contains 17 subsystems that are comprised of 124 nodes and 829 edges where nodes connect. This model is the starting point for all of NSI’s research during the AFOE project.
November 30, 2022
Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's New Approach to Influence During the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine

Russia’s information operations (IO) are playing a pivotal role in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Vartonova stated that not all narratives that Russia circulates in the information environment (IE) should be called disinformation because Russia uses truthful information in its IO campaigns as well. For example, Russian media highlighted that the Kremlin has given NATO an offer to end the war in Ukraine. However, it knew that NATO would most likely not accept its treaty. A more appropriate term for this kind of IO is adverse rhetoric. Most of Russian IO is designed for an international audience; however, it had to also convince its domestic audience that it should invade Ukraine. Russia used narratives such as the de-Nazification and de-militarization of Ukraine—among others—to keep the Russian people engaged. Russia has continually changed the dominant Ukraine narrativeto keep the support of the Russian population. Some of these changing narratives include a claim that Ukraine is creating biological weapons, targeting ethnic Slavs.
November 15, 2022
Vartanova, O. (US Marine Corps Information Operations Center (MCIOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence, Deepfakes, and Disinformation: A Primer

Deepfakes are becoming a more frequent feature in today’s modern information environment. Their increasing prevalence and quality are becoming a threat to society. Dr. Helmus commented that deepfakes are directly contributing to an ongoing modern phenomenon called truth decay. Even images and videos that have traditionally been strong forms of accreditation for information can now be called into question. Social consequences of deepfakes include election manipulation, lower trust in journalism, and an increasing vulnerability of the most likely victims. Likely victims of deepfakes include women who can be exploited by having their faces placed on an actress of an adult video. AI programs, such as DALL-E, can be used to create convincing images from simple text commands.
November 16, 2022
Helmus, T. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

Misinformation in Africa: An Overview of Current and Future Research

There is an increasing global concern relating to information disorder, including its effects on the Global South. Information disorder, as defined by the speakers, includes misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation. Much of the conversation surrounding information disorder focuses on social media; however, it is not a new phenomenon and has been historically prevalent in newspapers, television, and other forms of legacy media. Prof. Wasserman added that popular cultural forms of communication, like music and satire, have even fulfilled the journalistic function for some people, undermining the power of traditional journalism media even further.
October 11, 2022
Professor Herman Wasserman (University of Cape Town, South Africa) and Dr. Dani Madrid-Morales (University of Sheffield)
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SMA Speaker Series

Voices of China: A Conversation with Matthew Tye

China’s ruling government, led by President Xi Jinping, is becoming increasingly authoritarian and controlling over China’s media environment; however, China’s media and society was not always this restrictive. Mr. Tye’s presentation focused on China’s transition towards authoritarianism, which he witnessed first-hand while living there for nearly a decade. From 2008 to 2012, encountered a sense of optimism overall in China. Foreigners were treated with respect and friendliness, and China’s government relaxed its authoritarian policies in favor of economic growth. Mr. Tye stated that China even began borrowing US brands—like the NBA—for marketing campaigns in major city squares. He also described a strong developmental divide between rural and urban communities throughout China.
September 7, 2022
Tye, M. (Laowhy86 Media)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Disinformation Strategies in Africa

Africa is a frequent target for Russian information operations (IO), keeping Russia from being politically isolated, weakening democratic ideals, and strengthening the Kremlin’s regime security. Russia is deploying IO in Africa to pursue a variety of strategic objectives, including a) unobstructed access to natural resources, b) lucrative mineral and economic contracts, and c) preventing African countries from levying sanctions. Africa’s information space is already susceptible to malign operations; however, Russia’s IO is further degrading African countries’ information space. Dr. Duerksen stated that truthful information is becoming increasingly sparse in African media. Russian Television (RT) exacerbates this issue by allowing other media organizations on the continent to republish fake or misleading stories without restrictions.
August 30, 2022
Russian Disinformation Strategies in Africa
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SMA Speaker Series

Long Shadows: Deterrence in a Multipolar Nuclear Age

Dr. Pettyjohn explained that nuclear deterrence is frequently examined in the context of a bilateral competition rather than a multipolar competition between three or more nuclear capable states.
July 26, 2022
Pettyjohn, S. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Defense Program, Center for a New American Security [CNAS])
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Lessons

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was preceded by nearly a decade of Russian propaganda, claiming that Ukraine is Russian and that Ukraine is run by Nazis, and overall, perpetuating the dehumanization of Ukrainians. Journalists—especially Ukraine’s war-time journalists—are playing a crucial role in combating these Russian narratives and setting the groundwork for future legal trials relating to war crimes and sanctions.
July 14, 2022
Pomerantsev, P. (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University); Butusov, Y. (Chief Editor, Censor.NET); Rybak, V. (Analyst & Project Coordinator, Internews Ukraine); Makaruk, M. (Speaker of the International Volunteer Intelligence Community, InformNapalm)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukraine, Connectivity, and the Future of War

The war in Ukraine is one of the most visible conflicts in history, partly because of the prevalence of smartphones in Ukraine (61%). Moreover, 85% of Ukrainians possess an active mobile-broadband subscription, allowing them to share images and photos of the war instantaneously.
June 29, 2020
Matthew Ford and Andrew Hoskins
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SMA Speaker Series

The CCP’s Ambitions to Control and Manipulate Information Spaces: Theory and Practice

China’s single ruling party—the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)—is relying on messaging, coercive tactics, and violence to control the information environment (IE), both domestically and internationally.
June 22, 2022
Mareike Ohlberg
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SMA Speaker Series

How America Can Seize Its Great-Power Opportunity

Past US foreign security policies primarily focused on adversaries’ capabilities and objectives rather than its own ability to project its desired messages and worldview.
May 4, 2022
Mr. Ali Wyne
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SMA Speaker Series

The Evolving Requirements for Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance in the Indo-Pacific

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Shane Smith (Director, Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, US Air Force Academy) and Dr. Justin Anderson (Senior Policy Fellow, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
April 27, 2022
Dr. Justin Anderson and Dr. Shane Smith
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SMA Speaker Series

The Perils of Sticky Rhetoric: A Discussion Led by Professor Ian Lustick

The Global War on Terror shifted US global policies and actions while also enabling countries’ leaders to persecute members of their society by labeling them a terror organization.
April 14, 2022
Dr. Ian Lustick
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 17, 2022
Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Defense Strategy and a Strategy of Denial?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Elbridge Colby (The Marathon Initiative) as part of its SMA NDU (INSS/PRISM) Speaker Series.
March 3, 2022
Elbridge Colby
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SMA Speaker Series

Information Warfare and the New Threat Environment

SMA hosted a panel discussion with Dr. Christopher Paul (RAND), Mr. James P. Farwell (The Farwell Group), and Ms. Elisabeth Braw (American Enterprise Institute (AEI)) as part of its SMA INSS/PRISM Speaker Series.
December 10, 2021
James P. Farwell, Elisabeth Braw, and Christopher Paul
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SMA Speaker Series

Cyber Risks in Nuclear Escalation Scenarios

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Herb Lin (Hank J. Holland Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security, Hoover Institution & Senior Research Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University), as part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.
October 29, 2021
Dr. Herbert Lin
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Grand Strategy: Reality and Rhetoric

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) and Ms. Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher, RAND), as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
October 15, 2021
Dr. Samuel Charap and Dara Massicot
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SMA Speaker Series

The Delicate Balance of Survivability: New Insights from Game Theory on How Missile Defense and Counterforce Impact Strategic Stability and Deterrence

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Benjamin Bahney (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory) and Dr. Braden Soper (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)as part of its SMA STRATCOM Risk of Strategic Deterrence Failure Speaker Series.
September 2, 2021
Benjamin Bahney and Braden Soper
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SMA Speaker Series

Compendium of Recommendations for Countering Russian and Other State-Sponsored Propaganda

Countering Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns is a complex task which involves many different policy changes from both government and private actors.
August 31, 2021
Todd C. Helmus
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SMA Speaker Series

Narrative Intelligence: Separate Signal from Noise

EdgeTheory’s methodology and technology combines human analysis and artificial intelligence to help people understand the theories, conversations, and narratives that shape their world. Mr. Griffith emphasized that people have been having conversations since the beginning of time; it’s the mediums through which conversations happen that are what changes. Furthermore, he argued that conversation is either an actor’s biggest asset or a liability in achieving their objectives. For an actor to effectively use conversation, they must understand their chosen form of communication, understand who is being influenced, and potentially control the narratives around them.
July 21, 2021
Greg Griffith
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SMA Speaker Series

Moscow’s Digital Offensive: Building Sovereignty in Cyberspace

Dr. Pallin commented that Russia’s conception of cyber operations is different than most Western countries. The term cyber is rarely found in Russian security documents; instead information space is more frequently used. Its choice of terminology shows Russia’s priority is controlling the information available to its domestic population. This control, which allows Russia to create a sovereign space online, is meant to alleviate the Kremlin’s insecurities. The Roskmnadzor (Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media) was given direct control over Russia’s internet in the case of an existential crisis or war. However, Roskomnadzor had already taken control of Russia’s internet and slowed down Twitter and all addresses containing ‘t.co’ to stop anti-Russian messages from reaching its civilian population.
July 31, 2021
Carolina Vendil Pallin
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Global Media Footprint

Ms. Cook began by stating that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always been an authoritarian regime. However, over the last decade, the CCP has further increased its control of Chinese media, the autonomy of private corporations, and the persecution of minority ethnic and social groups within China. To counter the negative impressions related to its authoritarian government, the CCP has launched a messaging campaign targeting countries around the world. Ms. Cook emphasized that China will target any media market, including small markets. Through these efforts, China tries to influence the narrative in these markets by using four tactics: a) propaganda, b) disinformation campaigns, c) censorship, and d) gaining influence over the information infrastructure in a country. Ms. Cook acknowledged that it is not just China who carries out these activities; some of China’s influence tactics are also used by other countries as part of their own geopolitical interactions with other states. However, she focused on China’s activities specifically for the purpose of this brief.
June 2, 2021
Sarah Cook
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SMA Speaker Series

Understanding Policy Responses to the National Disinformation Challenge

Mr. Montgomery began by outlining the US Cyberspace Solarium Commission’s research on disinformation. The research focused on how to counter disinformation from a foreign source and how to make the United States’ domestic population more resilient to influence from disinformation campaigns. These malicious information campaigns have been conducted for more than 15 years; however, it was the Russian disinformation campaign during the 2016 US Presidential election that was the main catalyst for today’s research endeavors.
May 26, 2021
Mark Montgomery, Robert Morgus, and Natalie Thompson
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SMA Speaker Series

On the New War Ecology

Dr. Ford began his presentation by emphasizing that a changing information environment (IE) has affected how governments and their civilians participate in radical warfare (RW), or the interaction between media, technologies, and the politics of violence. He stated that three factors relating to RW have changed the ecology of war: 1) data collection and storage, 2) control of information, and 3) audience attention. Furthermore, many institutions have been accused of not learning from past communication errors or mishandling of data due to their poor data storage, the overwhelming amount of data that needs to be processed, and/or biases held by in individuals within the institution. While the overwhelming amount of digitized information does allow information on historical events to be more accessible and easily stored, it also enables historical data to be used out of context and then easily thrown away. This process of misusing history is resulting in a new phenomenon: “memory decay.”
May 11, 2021
Matthew Ford
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SMA Speaker Series

Improving Capabilities for Operations in the Information Environment: Information Forces and Intelligence Support

This presentation was based on two recent RAND reports, which detail how information operations (IO) can be more effectively integrated into the DoD’s current framework for operations. Mr. Schwille stated that to achieve this goal, members of Congress have proposed creating an Information Force, which would institutionalize IO and bridge the gap between the intelligence community and the IO community. Mr. Schwille argued that ultimately, there needs to be better coordination between the intelligence community and the IO community, particularly with respect to deciding what data should be collected, who is responsible for collecting the data, and who is responsible for analyzing the data. Six types of challenges for better incorporating IO into the DoD’s existing framework were consequently identified in one of RAND’s reports: 1) coordination and collaboration, 2) division of labor, 3) missing expertise, 4) prioritization, 5) gaps in concepts or doctrine, and 6) intelligence authorities. Moreover, four main types of solutions were identified: 1) improving processes across organizations, 2) prioritizing support for IO, 3) training and educating operators in the information environment (IE), and 4) allocating personnel effectively.
May 6, 2021
Christopher Paul and Mike Schwille
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Influence Operations (IPb) In 2021: Status and Expectations Through Geopolitical Assessment

Dr. Vartanova emphasized that while Russia is enigmatic and seems erratic in its information operations (IO), its actions can still be predicted. Russia’s practice of flying fighter jets over a US battleship in the Baltic Sea on two separate occasions in 2016 is one such pattern of nonverbal Russian propaganda. Russia’s actions and messages are also filled with symbolism directed at both its domestic audience and foreign audiences, representing Russia as a growing world power. An example of this symbolism is Russia’s decision to name its COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik-V to pay homage to Russia’s launch of the first manned vehicle into space in 1957. The use of this symbolism is ultimately to protect Putin’s regime and maintain the security of Russia’s vast geographical borders using IO, Dr. Vartanova argued. In general, Russia believes that the best way to bolster its defense through IO is a mixture of military action; diplomacy; and influence among civilian communities that portray Russia as a world power, an empire builder, and a protector against Western ideals. Moreover, Russia expands its influence in local communities through influence operations online, national media, and growing ex-patriot communities around the world.
April 14, 2021
Dr. Olga Vartanova
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SMA Speaker Series

Success and the Ethics of Operations In the Information Environment

Sir David argued that effective engagement within the cyber domain includes educating users on social media, quick and active defense efforts, and maintaining the ability to launch covert operations that hinder opponents’ operations in the information environment (OIE). In particular, it is important to educate younger users on how to identify false information and understand that most information they see on social media is driven by emotions as opposed to rational thought. Similarly, creating an active defense to malicious information operations (IO) involves identifying the populations at risk of being targeted and then increasing their resilience to disinformation. Sir David also made sure to emphasize that part of conducting offensive OIE is protecting the integrity of the messenger. The best way for the USG and the UK to protect their messaging integrity is to operate with a stronger set of morals and ethics than their competitors, thereby emphasizing the use of truthful information.
April 21, 2021
Sir David Omand, Dr. Thomas Rid, and Dr. Bill Casebeer
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SMA Speaker Series

Deepfakes: The National Security Threat in Context

SMA hosted a speaker series session with Mr. Jon Bateman (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Cyber Policy Initiative), Mr. Tim Hwang (Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)), and Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology, Georgetown University Medical Center, University College London, and New America) as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series.
April 8, 2021
Jon Bateman, Tim Hwang, and Nicholas Wright
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SMA Speaker Series

Can Democracy Survive in an Age of Information War?

Mr. Pomerantsev began by highlighting a phrase that he believes relates well to Russia’s concept of information: “The most dangerous idea in information war is the idea of information war itself.” This phrase is particularly applicable to Russia because the Kremlin views all communication as a facet of information warfare, according to Mr. Pomerantsev. The belief that all information is used to manipulate contradicts friendly political discourse between state leaders, feeds into conspiracy theorists’ rationale, and forces governments to securitize any form of communication. Furthermore, Russia’s concept of information leads them to view all of history through the lens of an information battlefield, Mr. Pomerantsev explained. This viewpoint was evident even as far back as the collapse of the Soviet Union, when former KGB agents began writing a revisionist form of history claiming that the Soviet Union collapsed as a result of its adoption of Western values, as opposed to political or economic causes. Mr. Pomerantsev concluded his brief set of remarks by emphasizing that the main dilemma facing Western countries is: How do they effectively combat Russia’s disinformation without resorting to the same combative mindset and tactics?
March 30, 2021
Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Mitigating Disinformation in a Contested Environment: Frontline Experience from the Western Balkans

Mr. Capello began his presentation by emphasizing that disinformation can be countered by “providing newsworthy quality content” and that a fact-based narrative still has value in modern times. He then focused on the Balkans: a strategically important region for both the US and Russia. Mr. Cappello asserted that Russia has taken advantage of societal fissures in the region while propagating narratives that demonize the US; exaggerate threats to ethnic Serbs’ and Orthodox Christians’ security; and reinforce Russia’s image as a strong protector, which includes building a positive narrative surrounding Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Mr. Capello stated that, similar to a kinetic war, the US cannot be a reactive participant in its battle against the spread of Russian disinformation.
March 10, 2021
John Cappello
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SMA Speaker Series

Masspersonal Social Engineering: Manipulative Communication at the Intersections of Cyber and Information Operations

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Sean Lawson (University of Utah & Marine Corps University) and Dr. Robert Gehl (Louisiana Tech University), as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series. Dr. Lawson presented their material, and both Dr. Lawson and Dr. Gehl participated in the audience Q&A.Dr. Lawson began the presentation by listing the three ways that Russia interfered in the 2016 US presidential election: 1) by hacking the Democratic National Convention (DNC); 2) by leaking sensitive emails to news sources and third-party sites, including Wiki Leaks; and 3) by amplifying information to manipulate individual’s thoughts and actions. Dr. Lawson emphasized that even some domestic actors in the US may have used disinformation practices, including Cambridge Analytica, which was accused of releasing information designed to create voter suppression among minority groups.
February 19, 2021
Robert W. Gehl and Sean Lawson
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SMA Speaker Series

Disinformation and Political Warfare: Historical and Technological Insights (A Conversation with Thomas Rid)

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Thomas Rid (Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series.Dr. Rid began by stating that that there is currently a lack of understanding of how historical influence operations have contributed to the evolution of present day countries’ information operations. He argued that scholars cannot fully grasp 21st century cyber operations without understanding intelligence operations from the 20th century. He stated that his research showed that the exposure of information has developed asymmetrical features for the US and its adversaries, including how influence operations are technically carried out, how operators form their strategies, the ethical constraints faced by operators, and the evaluation of a message’s success.
February 11, 2021
Dr. Thomas Rid
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SMA Speaker Series

"Standing Under" Stories: Narrative Research Methods for Anticipatory Intelligence

Dr. Cobb began her presentation by acknowledging that her own work builds on and heavily references prior communication, conflict, and psychological research, namely that of Dr. Lauren Kinney (author of Engaging with Uncertainty in Anticipatory intelligence) and Dr. Josh Kerbel (originator of the concept of anticipatory intelligence). She stated that her main finding from these scholars’ research was that an actor’s ability to have effective foresight relating to conflict management is partially reliant on their ability to be reflexive.
February 3, 2021
Dr. Sara Cobb
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SMA Speaker Series

One Belt, One Movie: China’s Campaign to Cancel America’s Cultural Dominance and Assert New Narratives

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Zachary S. Davis (Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Lab) and Mr. Marshall Monroe (Marshall Monroe Magic, Founder, National Center for Soft Power Strategies), as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.Dr. Davis began by arguing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using soft power to try to develop a new narrative to replace the post-war, American-dominated narrative. He then discussed several trends in the CCP’s use of soft power to “cancel” American culture through movies and media. Dr. Davis explained that China looks at areas such as film as part of national power, unlike the US. He contended that China is pursuing an integrated strategy where soft power strategies are meant to accompany the rise of hard power in the country’s concept of its new global role. He stated that his research focuses on China’s accumulation of soft power as a carefully cultivated strategy that has been implemented and is being executed by officials and friends of the regime, with some of the most important friends being business leaders. In his view, the CCP is trying to reshape the narrative by replacing American values with CCP-friendly values.
January 13, 2021
Dr. Zachary S. Davis and Marshall Monroe
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SMA Speaker Series

Waging New Cold Wars: Gaining Advantage in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Robert Ehlers (JMark Services, Inc.), as a part of its new SMA IIJO Speaker Series.Dr. Ehlers began by presenting the six goals of his presentation: 1) To foster thinking and action for informational aspects of great power rivalry (GPR), 2) to review key aspects of the Cold War experience that could be applied to modern-day GPR, 3) to encourage consideration of how these large-order factors apply to each member of the audience, 4) to provoke thought about how to exploit Chinese and Russian weaknesses in their messaging, 5) to export these thoughts to action in both the near-term and the long-term, and 6) to improve alignment and organizational structure and processes.Dr
January 23, 2021
Dr. Robert Ehlers
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SMA Speaker Series

Information Warfare

Mr. Farwell’s brief focused on strategic views of information warfare and the impact that it is having. He began by stating that communication strategy and information warfare are about shaping and changing behavior, as well as managing expectations, using language, action, images, or symbols to achieve a desired effect or end-state. There is no formula for information warfare, however, Mr. Farwell emphasized. He also cautioned the US government (USG) to not let definitions become diversions, as the process of defining terms is often counterproductive. He added that information has always been a feature of warfare; modern technology has just altered how we use it. Information warfare is more common in the operating environment today, however, it will only continue to become more common. In some cases, Mr. Farwell argued, kinetic operations will require priority. In others, information will. He used Ukraine and the 2006 Lebanon War as case studies.
January 21, 2021
James P. Farwell
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SMA Speaker Series

Neglected History, Forgotten Lessons: The Struggle for Minds and Wills Relies on Leadership First, Organization Second

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Mr. Matthew Armstrong (PhD Student, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London), as a part of its new SMA Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) Speaker Series.Mr. Armstrong took a historical approach to his presentation. He first noted that in the contemporary search for solutions, we want to look for precedents, but often times, incorrect lessons are drawn while the right lessons are missed. He highlighted how Presidents Truman and Eisenhower used the phrase “the struggle for hearts and minds” in an era that is more similar than dissimilar to the one we are in today. Mr. Armstrong then underscored three lessons he hoped to convey in his talk: 1) Leadership leads to purpose, structure, and accountability; 2) strategy is not an alternative spelling for tactics; and 3) an organization chart reflects strategy, but it is not strategy.
January 16, 2021
Matt Armstrong
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Cyber Strategies and Information Operations: From Cuba to Crimea and Beyond

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series, featuring Dr. Katya Drozdova (Seattle Pacific University).Dr. Drozdova began her presentation by emphasizing the need to understand the complexity of Russia, particularly when assessing its cyber and information operations. Characteristically, these operations serve Russia’s broader interests and are often integrated with other means to broaden national power, military strength, and covert operations. Dr. Drozdova used the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a Russian information operation, as the Soviets used strategic communication with the US in an attempt to force the US to remove its nuclear weapons from Turkey. Another notable example is Crimea, where Russia is currently deploying significant elements of a cyber campaign that are tightly interweaved with special operations, election politics, etc.
October 21, 2020
KATYA DROZDOVA
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SMA Speaker Series

Tips for Consuming Intelligence

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by LTG Karen Gibson (Retired) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. LTG(R) Gibson discussed how decision makers (and civilians) can be wise consumers of intelligence and shape the intelligence environment. She first stated that using intelligence strategically requires strategy to begin with. Once one has a strategy, they can then use intelligence to inform it. LTG(R) Gibson stated that there are three primary things that one must consider when developing a strategy: 1) where they are right now, 2) where they need to be, and 3) the environment in which they need to operate. She elaborated that a plan or strategy should be multi-domain, multi-faceted, and involve multiple lines of effort. Next, LTG(R) Gibson stated that one must communicate their strategy consistently to everyone on their team through multiple means. Without this, one’s intel team cannot provide the appropriate intel to guide one’s strategy. Moreover, one must determine what the conditions of the environment that they need to monitor are. This will help an individual ask the right questions and determine the scope and scale of their environment. LTG(R) Gibson then stated that commanders and decision makers must open their inner circles and involve some key members of the intelligence team to gain a sense of what the commander or decision maker is trying to accomplish. By hearing this individual think out loud and discuss their strategy, the intelligence team can help identify the right information to inform that strategy. This will also enable the commander or decision maker to be proactive rather than reactive, as the precise information provided will ideally lead to action.
March 12, 2020
LTG Karen Gibson
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SMA Speaker Series

Future of Global Competition & Conflict Conclusion of Effort Panel Discussion (Part 2 of 2)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), and Lt Gen (Ret) Dr. Bob Elder (George Mason University). Dr. Cooley first presented Oklahoma State University’s Media Ecology and Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group’s key takeaways from its comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media. These takeaways included: 1) the future of global competition is a battle for economic security, which is demonstrated through technological innovation, trade agreements, etc.; 2) US actions are leading to a leadership vacuum and growing uncertainty; and 3) informational and cultural strategies are being developed by China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela in order to to mitigate US/Western influence. Dr. Cooley also presented the MESA Group’s findings specific to Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media, respectively, as well as a series of potential challenges to US global influence and potential openings for the US to expand and maintain its influence. Next, Lt Gen (Ret) Elder discussed the George Mason University Team’s Timed Influence Net (TIN) model and its application to globally integrated operations planning. He first explained the TIN model’s framework and approach, followed by a discussion of Chinese, Russian, and US strategic goals. He explained that a challenge of globally integrated operations is coordinating global activities and messaging to promote US objectives and disrupt adversary objectives detrimental to the US and its global partners. Based on the TIN model’s results, Lt Gen Elder presented four key planning insights, including how identifying which US and competitor regional objectives are in conflict with one another can help highlight likely areas of competition that could develop into crises and can also be used to develop indicators and warnings for monitoring purposes. Lastly, Dr. Bragg discussed NSI’s global deep dive effort, which maps major power influence and activities. This global deep dive provides a systematic means of exploring China’s and Russia’s activities and interests at various levels of analysis– state, regional, and global. She explained that the deep dive also enables examination of how US, Chinese, and Russian interests and activities intersect to create the potential for cooperation, competition, or conflict. Dr. Bragg summarized the interests and activities data that NSI found for China and Russia, while also highlighting Chinese global activities, Chinese investment in infrastructure and resource extraction, and US and Russian leverage over countries of top importance to China.
November 6, 2019
Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.); Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Elder, R. (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Talking to the Enemy: Explaining Diplomatic Strategy in Conflicts with China

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Oriana Skylar Mastro (Georgetown University) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. Dr. Mastro first explained the motivation behind her research. The US does not have a good understanding of how to end conflicts or how to bring enemies to the negotiating table, according to Dr. Mastro. Moreover, individuals often have varying views on how to best get an enemy to agree to talks. Therefore, Dr. Mastro sought to answer the following question: After a war breaks out, what factors influence belligerents’ decisions about whether to talk to the enemy, and when may their position on wartime diplomacy change? She defined diplomatic posture as “a belligerent’s willingness to engage in direct talks with its enemy at a given point in a war,” and explained that there are two types of diplomatic posture: open (where the warring party is willing to talk directly with the enemy in a given period of time unconditionally) and closed (where either the warring party is unwilling to talk directly to the enemy or is unwilling to do so unless preconditions are met). When conducting her research, Dr. Mastro examined every war fought since World War II and recognized that 1) there is a near universal tendency to have a period at the beginning of a war where there is only fighting and no talking; 2) states’ diplomatic posture varies over time and over conflicts; 3) expected strategic costs of conversation determine diplomatic posture; 4) when leaders’ cost valuation is high, they chose closed diplomatic postures; 5) when leaders’ cost valuation is low, they chose open diplomatic postures; and 6) states will only go to the negotiating table when/strategic costs are determined by likelihood of adverse inference and the enemy’s ability to respond given adverse inference. Dr. Mastro also provided a historic case study—China during the Korean War—to bring forth several of the conclusions she derived from her research. To conclude, Dr. Mastro provided a series of recommendations, including that US policymakers and defense planners must 1) rethink the US’s approach to wartime diplomacy, 2) integrate diplomats into contingency planning, and 3) rethink the role of mediators.
September 9, 2019
Oriana Skylar Mastro
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SMA Speaker Series

Trends in Online Foreign Influence Efforts

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Jacob Shapiro (Princeton University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. To begin, Professor Shapiro outlined three criteria used to define a foreign influence effort: 1) “foreign” (i.e., an attempt by country A to project content in country B), 2) “deceptive” (i.e., masquerading content as organic to country B), and 3) “political” (i.e., possessing a clearly identifiable objective). He then stated that there have been a total of 53 foreign influence efforts against 24 different countries since 2014, 72% of which were conducted by Russia and most others by Iran. He highlighted that many of these efforts have occurred simultaneously, though many were instigated in support of different political goals.
August 15, 2019
Jacob N. Shapiro
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SMA Speaker Series

Hedged Bets or Shared Norms? Sino-Russian Great Power Relations and Public Opinion

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy at West Point) and Col E. John Gregory (US Army) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict Speaker Series. In their research, Col Gregory and Dr. Sherlock examined the prospects for the future of the China-Russia relationship by surveying Chinese and Russian youths. They also aimed to determine whether common opinions are a result of political views or merely hedging behaviors.
July 24, 2019
Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D. and E. John Gregory, PhD, JD
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SMA Speaker Series

Reputational Security and Other New Priorities: Rethinking Soft Power for 2030

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Nicholas Cull (University of Southern California) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. To begin, Dr. Cull highlighted a variety of foreign dangers presented when looking out towards 2030. He first explained that, although Russia is presently an irritant and a disrupter, it is not a long-term threat. Rather, China should be the US’s main concern—it has developed a strategy in pursuit of its long-term goals. In addition, Dr. Cull stated that an Indo/Pakistan War is a very real and long-term foreign danger
June 4, 2019
Nicholas J. Cull
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SMA Speaker Series

Social Cyber-Security Dynamics

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Mellon University) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Carley first defined and characterized social cyber-security. She then stated that social media is about networks and identified three influential groups that interact with users within these networks: 1) echochambers (a toxic group of people connected to each other that share the same ideas), 2) superspreaders (individuals that spread information and alert people of changes), and 3) superfriends (individuals that engage in dialogue to change others’ beliefs and get them to act). Dr. Carley proceeded to discuss the four D’s of traditional information warfare (dismiss, distort, dismay, and distract) and present her key findings regarding technology exploitation, social cognitive manipulation, and more general manipulation.
June 12, 2019
Dr. Kathleen M. Carley
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SMA Speaker Series

Resolve in International Politics

In this talk, Dr. Kertzer focused on the psychology of resolve in international politics. Resolve is the ability to stand firm while others back down.
May 29, 2019
Joshua Kertzer
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SMA Speaker Series

Measuring Soft Power in the International System

During her presentation, Dr. Wu explained why soft power matters and how to measure soft power’s influence on broader considerations of geopolitics.
June 6, 2019
Irene S. Wu
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SMA Speaker Series

Grappling with the Rise of China: A New Model for Thinking about Sino-American Relations

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dale Copeland (University of Virginia) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Copeland stated that he would move beyond the two schools of thought that dominate great power thinking (containment theory and engagement theory) by proposing an alternative, which he called stabilization theory.
May 17, 2019
Copeland, D. (University of Virginia)
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SMA Speaker Series

Communicating Meaning in the Intelligence Enterprise

MA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. David Broniatowski (George Washington University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
April 18, 2019
Broniatowski, D. (George Washington University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Countering Electronic Warfare Undermatch in the European AOR

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by CW4 Jeffrey Elwell (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)) as a part of its SMA NDU Speaker Series.
April 15, 2019
Elwell, J. (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

Soft Power 2.0, China Style- STORY WARS

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Marshall Monroe (Marshall Monroe MAGIC / Magic Canyon Institute) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
March 20, 2019
Monroe, M. (Marshall Monroe MAGIC)
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SMA Speaker Series

Strategic Communication and Influence: An Unofficial Primer

o begin, Dr. Lieber defined strategic communication and described the components that it requires (sequencing, complimentary conduits, known primary and secondary audiences, an active selection of particular frames, and an ongoing assessment), as well as the characteristics that it must feature (tangible objectives, coordinated communication, designated POCs, SMEs on hand, documented guidelines or a plan, and familiarity with legal requirements).
March 19, 2019
Lieber, P. (Joint Special Operations University (JSOU))
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SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Persuasion through Human/Machine Coding

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Monica Rankin (University of Texas at Dallas) and Dr. Vincent Ng (University of Texas at Dallas) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 7, 2018
Ng, V. (University of Texas at Dallas); Rankin, M. (University of Texas at Dallas)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Persuasion Code: How Neuromarketing Can Help You Persuade Anyone, Anywhere, Anytime

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Christophe Morin (SalesBrain) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Morin discussed how cognitive science can be used to better understand persuasion science theory.
November 15, 2018
Morin, C. (SalesBrain)
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SMA Speaker Series

21st Theater Sustainment Command (TSC) Communications

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by 1LT Piotr Zagorowski (USARMY 21st TSC) and MAJ Garrett Stotz (USARMY 21st TSC) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
October 10, 2018
Stotz, G. (USARMY 21st TSC); Zagorowski, P. (USARMY 21st TSC)
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SMA Speaker Series

Rival Power: Russia in Southeast Europe

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dimitar Bechev (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Bechev spoke about Russia’s operations in Southeast Europe, particularly in the Balkan states.
September 18, 2018
Bechev, D. (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)
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SMA Speaker Series

Analyzing Digital Traces of Political Manipulation: The 2016 Russian Interference Twitter Campaign

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Kristina Lerman (University of Southern California [USC] Information Sciences Institute [ISI]) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Lerman spoke about her research, which examines the role of political ideology and social bots on Twitter during the 2016 US election and distinguishes which users may be susceptible to manipulation. She and her team collected millions of tweets between 15 September and 9 November 2016 and identified which troll accounts generated the most tweets and which media outlets liberals and conservatives retweeted. Dr. Lerman identified the topics that were most frequently discussed among liberal and conservative users, distinct characteristics of the most prolific spreaders of various tweets, and where the majority of tweets about the election originated from. To conclude the session, Dr. Lerman provided insights as to what variables are most important to consider when successfully predicting spreaders and what lessons were learned as a result of this research.
July 24, 2018
Dr. Kristina Lerman
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Strategic Communication)

NSI Publication

Smoke, Mirrors, and Mayhem: The Good Fight Remixed

The Army University Press created the Future Warfare Writing Program to generate ideas about possible complexities of future warfare, as presented in the U.S. Army Operating Concept.
Year Published:
2017
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