The Evolving Requirements for Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance in the Indo-Pacific
Speaker(s): Smith, S. (Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, US Air Force Academy); Anderson, J. (Senior Policy Fellow, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University)
Date: 27 April 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Shane Smith (Director, Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, US Air Force Academy) and Dr. Justin Anderson (Senior Policy Fellow, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University) as part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
The US nuclear umbrella has long been a pivotal factor in its Indo-Pacific allies’—primarily Australia, Japan, and South Korea—ability to deter Chinese and North Korean aggression. The backbone of this nuclear umbrella has been US ability to maintain its nuclear presence and move its military personal at will in the region. Australia, Japan, and South Korea have historically been reliant on the US nuclear deterrence because they are non-nuclear nations and the Indo-Pacific region lacks a security organization like NATO. Dr. Anderson commented that US ability to assure its allies that it will act in their defense is a key aspect of the nuclear umbrella. However, the US decision to remove its bomber squad—which can carry nuclear warheads—from Guam during 2020 weakened its ally’s assurance that the US could protect them.
Despite the bomber’s removal from Guam, the US is assuring its allies in the Indo-Pacific that it can still strike potential targets in the region. Dr. Smith stated that while China is the fastest growing power in the region, North Korea is the largest existential threat because of their growing nuclear arsenal, advancing long-range missile capabilities, and erratic leadership. North Korea’s advancing missile systems and China’s aggressive stance in the region have led all three major US allies in the region—Japan, South Korea, and Australia—to adopt legislation to protect themselves. Ultimately there will need to be trilateral dialogue between the US, Japan, and South Korea to ensure that the US can still protect its allies. Japan’s and South Korea’s geographic distance and historical conflicts with China and North Korea places them at higher risk of overt aggression than Australia. Also, South Korea’s interest in attaining a nuclear weapon shows that being a nuclear power is part of what it means to be a global power in today’s modern world.
Speaker Session Recording
Our speakers requested that we not record this session.
Dr. Justin Anderson and Dr. Shane Smith Biographies
Dr. Shane Smith is Director of the Air Force Institute for National Security Studies, located at the U.S. AirForce Academy, where he is also an Associate Professor of Political Science. Prior to joining the U.S. AirForce Academy, Dr. Smith was a Senior Research Fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction. He has served in the Office of the Security of Defense as asenior advisor for U.S. nuclear policy in East Asia and as a senior advisor at the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
Dr. Justin Anderson is a Senior Policy Fellow at National Defense University's Center for the Study ofWeapons of Mass Destruction. His research focuses on deterrence (nuclear and non-nuclear), nuclearforces, and future nuclear arms control agreements and confidence-building measures (CBMs). Prior tojoining the Center, he was a Senior Policy analyst at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC),providing research and analysis on arms control, nonproliferation, counter-WMD, and deterrence issuesto the U.S. Air Force, USSTRATCOM, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, and OSD Office of TreatyCompliance. From 2009-10, in support of OSD Office of the General Counsel/International Affairs, heserved as Editor of the Department of Defense Law of War Manual. Dr. Anderson has also taught at GeorgeMason University, the Joint Services Command and Staff College (U.K.), King’s College London, andBrookes University. He received his PhD and MA in War Studies from King’s College London and BA inDiplomacy and World Affairs from Occidental College.
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