Hedged Bets or Shared Norms? Sino-Russian Great Power Relations and Public Opinion
“Hedged Bets or Shared Norms? Sino-Russian Great Power Relations and Public Opinion“
Speakers: Gregory, E. J. (US Army); Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy at West Point)
Date: 24 July 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy at West Point) and Col E. John Gregory (US Army) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict Speaker Series. In their research, Col Gregory and Dr. Sherlock examined the prospects for the future of the China-Russia relationship by surveying Chinese and Russian youths. They also aimed to determine whether common opinions are a result of political views or merely hedging behaviors. Col Gregory discussed his conclusions regarding public opinion among Chinese youths, namely that the “formation of preferences on foreign policy in Chinese society is highly influenced by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) control of information channels and aggressive social discourse formation mechanisms.” Moreover, although very critical of US foreign policy decisions and many domestic aspects of the US, elite Chinese students generally hold an idealistic view of the US. On the other hand, Chinese elite youth are generally ambivalent and often completely uninterested in Russian culture. Dr. Sherlock then discussed his conclusions regarding public opinion among Russian youths, namely that the “formation in Russian society of preferences on foreign policy enjoys an important measure of autonomy from manipulation by the regime.” Furthermore, aggressive, expansionist nationalism is not a salient feature of contemporary Russian political culture or national identity, particularly among youths. Perceptions of external threat and the desire for great power status are also less important among Russian youths than concerns over mounting domestic problems. Young Russians are also wary of close cooperation with China, and participants were more interested in rapprochement with the West, particularly the US. After examining the results of both their Russia and China studies, Dr. Sherlock and Col Gregory offered a few final conclusions. They stated that below the level of leadership, China and Russia “share few enduring political values that would contribute to a future alliance akin to the US Treaty Alliance Structure.” Furthermore, despite the fact that Chinese youth are more readily influenced by the CCP’s discourse formation machine, “they still seem to imagine that a great power looks something like America, which is a key finding for American policy makers debating what emphasis to put on engagement and how to engage with China.”
Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D.
Thomas Sherlock is a professor of political science at the United States Military Academy at West Point where he has served as director of the program in comparative politics. He received his doctorate in political science from Columbia University and teaches courses on comparative politics, democracy and democratization, comparative institutions, international security, and the politics of the post-Soviet region. His book, Historical Narratives in the Soviet Union and Post-Soviet Russia, was published in an expanded, translated edition in 2014 by Rosspen (Moscow), a leading academic publisher. He is the co-author of The Fight for Legitimacy: Democracy vs. Terrorism and the co-editor of three volumes of papers published from West Point’s Student Conference on U.S. Affairs (SCUSA): What Is the Worst that Can Happen? The Politics and Policy of Crisis Management; Confronting Inequality. Wealth, Rights, and Power; and Democracy and Democratization: Challenges and Opportunities.
Thom has contributed chapters to several edited volumes and his articles have appeared in numerous journals, including Comparative Politics, Washington Quarterly, National Interest, Problems of Communism, Ab Imperio, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Problems of Post-Communism, Prepodavanie istorii i obshchestvovedeniia v shkole (Russia), Rossiia v global’noi politike (Russia), and Zovnishni spravy: ZS (Ukraine).
Thom’s opinion pieces have appeared in the New York Times (international edition), the Washington Post (the Monkey Cage) and other news outlets. He has served as a consultant or project manager for the Carnegie Council, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Open Society Foundations (Ukraine), and EUROCLIO in The Netherlands, among other institutions. He has given invited presentations at Columbia University, Yale University, Wesleyan University, TRADOC, the U.S. Air Force Academy, the U.S. European Command (EUCOM) and other academic and government institutions. Thom frequently conducts field research in post-Soviet space, including the supervision of large-N national surveys and focus groups in Russia. His current research, which is supported by grants from the Minerva Initiative, examines the character of Russian nationalism; popular and elite assessments of Russian history; and the quality of democratic values in Russia.
E. John Gregory, PhD, JD
Colonel E. John Gregory, US Army, is a trained China historian, lawyer, and Chinese linguist. He currently serves as the Academy Professor and Director of the Chinese Program (Department of Foreign Languages) as well as the Director of the Center for Languages, Cultures, and Regional Studies at the United States Military Academy, West Point, New York. He holds a PhD in Late Imperial Chinese History from Georgetown University (2015), an LLM in Military and International Law from The Judge Advocate General’s Legal Center and School (2010), and a JD from the University of Florida (2001). He has been a member of the Florida Bar since 2001. He was previously a Fulbright Fellow and Visiting Scholar at the Institute of History and Philology of the Academia Sinica in Taiwan (2013–14). He travels frequently in Taiwan and China. Colonel Gregory has served as an advisor on numerous US-China exchanges and military-to-military events. He has also published numerous articles and made presentations on the topics of law, Chinese discourse, Chinese history, society, politics and language.
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