Future of Global Competition & Conflict Conclusion of Effort Panel Discussion (Part 1 of 2)

November 2019 No Comments

“Future of Global Competition & Conflict Conclusion of Effort Panel Discussion (Part 1 of 2)“

Speakers: Donahue, J. (US Army TRADOC G2); Suedfeld, P. (University of British Columbia); Jiang, M. (Creighton University)

Date: 30 October 2019

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Jumanne Donahue (US Army TRADOC G2), Dr. Peter Suedfeld (University of British Columbia (UBC)), and Dr. Maorong Jiang (Creighton University). Mr. Donahue first discussed the results of an Athena simulation designed to computationally model three potential China futures over the next 10 years. These potential futures included 1) status quo continuation, 2) state capitalist acceleration, and 3) the lost decade (i.e., a situation in which China declines economically). The team derived four primary conclusions from the simulation: 1) the possibility of regime change in China is virtually nonexistent; 2) China will likely remain stable overall despite any localized disturbances and grievances; 3) Chinese elites are generally satisfied with the status quo of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) governance; and 4) the Hong Kong disturbances are ephemeral, and their impact on the rest of China is minimal. Next, Dr. Peter Suedfeld discussed the UBC team’s cognitive and motivational analyses on the leaders of the Chinese economy. The UBC team sought to identify what key aspects of cognition and motivation/interests drive Chinese global activities and strategy. In order to do this, the UBC team scored randomly selected texts based on integrative complexity and motive imagery. These texts included leaders’ discourse from various sectors of the Chinese economy, including the general economy, space, technology, and cyberspace. The UBC team found that 1) the integrative complexity of Chinese leadership was relatively high, 2) the motive imagery scores were also relatively high, 3) cyberspace scores were fairly low, and 4) achievement (i.e., competition, excellence, progress, etc.) appeared to be quite high as well. Dr. Maorong Jiang then presented a flexible framework to achieve strategic objectives in US-China policy. Dr. Jiang explained that there is an urgent need for the US to adopt a new strategic framework that both embraces Chinese political and economic realities and uses those realities to its advantage in order to advance US national and international agendas. This strategic framework also utilizes a soft-power deterrence approach to engage, challenge, and integrate China. He also emphasized that these strategic framework should be implemented with flexibility to ensure adaptability in the face of change. To conclude, Dr. Jiang made recommendations for US strategy towards China over the short-term (1-3 years, focusing on reengaging China), the medium term (3-7 years, focusing on challenging China while sharing responsibility), and the long term (7-10 years, focusing on integrating China to secure a rules-based global order).