SMA’s Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part III (How the US, Its Allies, and Its Partner Nations Should Manage the Global Challenges Presented by China)
“SMA’s Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part III (How the US, Its Allies, and Its Partner Nations Should Manage the Global Challenges Presented by China)“
Speakers: Babb, J. (US Army Command and General Staff College); Cheng, D. (Heritage Foundation); Mazarr, M. (RAND); Spalding, R. (Retired); Forrest, C. (US Air Force HQ AF/A3K (CHECKMATE))
Date: 20 February 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Mr. Dean Cheng (Heritage Foundation), Mr. Michael Mazarr (RAND), Dr. Robert Spalding III, Brig Gen, USAF (Ret.), and Lt. Col. Christopher D. Forrest (US Air Force HQ AF/A3K (CHECKMATE)). The moderator was Dr. Joseph G. D. Babb (US Army Command and General Staff College).
To begin the discussion, Dr. Babb stated that no one can predict the future. The white paper upon which this panel discussion was based simply explores what the future of the competition between the US and China could possibly look like; the US still must keep a steady, watchful eye and be ready to tackle unforeseen events. He stated that there are two characteristics that China possesses that the US should be mindful of: 1) China will guard its sovereignty at its periphery, and 2) China’s foreign policy is strategically defensive and operationally offensive. Dr. Babb concluded by stating that the US should look out for “flash points” that could cause conflict to erupt.
Next, Mr. Cheng spoke about mankind’s movement from the Industrial Age to the Information Age. In the Information Age, the ability to collect, transform, and assess information accurately is the most valuable form of currency. Political unity, science and technology, and cultural security are all all involve information collection as well. China recognizes the value of being able to export information at one’s choosing, as well as its ability to deny an adversary that same capability. Moreover, China thinks of information at a strategic, operational, and tactical level. Mr. Cheng concluded by stating that China is pursuing a form of informational mercantilism and is using a multi-pathed, multi-faceted approach to both collect and steal information. For China, everything ultimately comes down to information.
Mr. Mazarr then provided a more systematic view of the competition taking place between the US and China. He first stated that these nations are competing to shape the global paradigm. This is not a fundamentally military, economic, or ecological competition; rather, this competition involves cultural imperialism. Mr. Mazarr stated that the US has dominated the global narrative and shaped the preferences and views of many other nations since WWIIl. The US was able to successfully do so without force due to the attractiveness of its model and its ability to strongly influence nations in an indirect, non-coercive way. China is now trying to create a competing model; however, it currently has noticeable handicaps. Mr. Mazarr concluded by stating that the US must address its domestic problems before addressing its international problems; otherwise, the exemplary power of the US model will decay.
Dr. Spalding proceeded to discuss how China views strategic competition. He stated that China seeks to maintain a closed system while operating in an open system. However, a black swan scenario, such as the coronavirus, could strike enough of a blow against the Chinese regime to bring its society out into the open. Dr. Spalding then stated that the US has three interrelated problems: one is technical (the open data model that the US designed long ago has evolved and now presents a challenge to democracies), one is business-related (the Chinese Communist Party [CCP] controls the business sector within China, so it can make decisions regarding businesses’ use of information), and one is policy-related (the CCP can create an unbalanced playing field for Chinese companies within China). These three problems combined give China the advantage in aggregating more data, and therefore, it will likely drive the international business model moving forward. Dr. Spalding concluded by stating that the US created the system, the technology, and the business processes, but China has taken advantage of them and advanced them in a 5G world.
Lt. Col. Forrest then spoke about how the US can determine whether it is well-equipped to respond to the challenges that China presents in a peacetime setting or in a time of armed conflict. He stated that the US has been continuously kept in response-mode thus far and must focus more time, energy, and resources on competing effectively in the gray zone as part of a long-term strategic competition with the CCP. Lt. Col. Forrest also indicated that, to effectively counter ongoing Chinese gray zone actions, this competition likely will require cultural and organizational changes, as well as a different lens through which to view US capability development and operations. To conclude, Lt. Col. Forrest stressed the importance of identifying the strategic intentions of US adversaries and suggested some key areas for investment and capability development for the US military, as well as other instruments of national power.
Speaker Session Audio Recording
To access an audio recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).
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