How Russian Society Challenges Putin’s Grand Narrative: Perceptions of Domestic Problems and External Threats after Crimea

Speaker(s):

Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy, West Point)

Date of Event:

May 1, 2019

Associated SMA Project

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“How Russian Society Challenges Putin’s Grand Narrative: Perceptions of Domestic Problems and External Threats after Crimea”

Speaker: Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy, West Point)

Date: 1 May 2019

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy, West Point) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. During his presentation, Dr. Sherlock discussed a study that draws upon Russian public opinion surveys conducted over the past 2-3 years. He stated that Putin’s anti-Western sentiment and desire to restore Russia as a cohesive state with global power status is generally shared among the Russian population and elite. However, a common misconception is that these groups agree with the Kremlin’s stance that Russia should be willing to accept socioeconomic stagnation in pursuit of these goals. According to Dr. Sherlock, the Russian population and elite have started to challenge the core identifying narrative of the Kremlin. He identified three primary findings from his research: 1) There is weak public support in Russia for new imperialism or regional hegemony; 2) Russia’s seizure of Crimea increased Russian perceptions the nation as a world power; 3) There would be little public support for the Kremlin if Russia invaded Ukraine. Dr. Sherlock also discussed the anti-American narrative that Russia portrays. He explained that Putin believes that, in order to be successful, he needs to convince the public that the US presents a significant threat. Although this narrative has been successful, Dr. Sherlock argues that it does nor rise to the level of self-sacrifice needed in order to unquestionably support the Kremlin’s foreign policy. He stated that Russians are “practically patriotic.” He also suggested that Russian elites are much more interested in presenting threats to Russia’s near abroad than the public is, though they do recognize the danger of provoking a conflict with the West by possessing an aggressive foreign policy. To conclude, Dr. Sherlock stated that both the Russian public and elites are more supportive of the Kremlin focusing on domestic issues than on issues in Russia’s near abroad.

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Biography: Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D.

Thomas Sherlock is a Professor of Political Science at the United States Military Academy, West Point, where he teaches courses in post-Soviet politics, comparative politics, and international security. He received his doctoral degree in political science from Columbia University. His current and previous executive positions at West Point and in the Department of Social Sciences include: Director, Student Conference on U.S. Affairs (SCUSA); Director of Research; Director of Comparative Politics; and Chair of the Academic Research Council.

Dr. Sherlock is the author or co-author of three books and the co-editor of three volumes of SCUSA conference papers. He has also published numerous scholarly articles in the United States and Russia and has served as a consultant or project manager for the Carnegie Council, the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Open Society Foundations, and EUROCLIO (The Netherlands), among other organizations and institutions. Dr. Sherlock has supervised numerous large sample public opinion surveys in Russia and the Baltic states as well as two dozen focus group sessions in Moscow. He is the recipient of recent grants from the Minerva Initiative and the Kennan Institute, Wilson Center. His current research focuses on the evolution of elite and mass political culture in Russia.

Publications: Books

Thomas Sherlock (with Lukas Berg and Patrick Campbell), eds. Democracy and Democratization in the New Millennium. Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY: Sloan Publishing, 2018.

Thomas Sherlock (with Hugh Liebert and Cole Pinheiro), eds. Confronting Inequality: Wealth, Rights, and Power. Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY: Sloan Publishing, 2016.

Thomas Sherlock (with Hugh Liebert and John Morrow), eds. What Is the Worst That Can Happen? The Politics and Policy of Crisis Management. Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY: Sloan Publishing, 2016.

Thomas Sherlock, Istoriia, pamiat’ i politiki v Sovetskom Soiuze i postsovetskoi Rossii. Moscow: ROSSPEN, 2014.

Thomas Sherlock, Historical Narratives in the Soviet Union and Post-Soviet Russia. New York: Palgrave-McMillan, 2007.

Thomas Sherlock (co-author), The Fight for Legitimacy: Democracy versus Terrorism. Westport: CT: Praeger, 2006.

Publications: Select Articles and Reviews

Thomas Sherlock, “Russian Society and Foreign Policy: Mass and Elite Orientations after Crimea.” Problems of Post-Communism, March 2019.

Thomas Sherlock, Review of Graeme Gill, Building an Authoritarian Polity. The Russian Review vol. 76, no. 1 (January), 2017.

Thomas Sherlock, “Russian Politics and the Soviet Past: Reassessing Stalin and Stalinism under Vladimir Putin.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies, vol. 49, no. 1, 2016.

Thomas Sherlock, “The Real Reason Russians Have Soviet Nostalgia.” The National Interest, December 2016.

Thomas Sherlock. “The Uneven Spread of Democracy: An Assessment and Explanation of Global Trends.” In Hugh Liebert, Thomas Sherlock, and Cole Pinheiro, eds., Confronting Inequality: Wealth, Rights, and Power. Cornwall-on-Hudson, NY: Sloan Publishing, 2016.

Thomas Sherlock, “The Kremlin Does Not Have a Blank Check…” Washington Post/Monkey Cage, September 26, 2014.

Thomas Sherlock, “Putin’s Public Opinion Challenge.” The National Interest, August 2014.

Thomas Sherlock, Review of David Satter, It was a Long Time Ago, and It Never Happened Anyway. The Russian Review, vol. 72, no. 1, 2013.

Thomas Sherlock, “Transitional Justice in Georgia.” In Lavinia Stan, ed., Encyclopedia of Transitional Justice. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013.

Thomas Sherlock, “Opyt lakirovka istorii,” Rossiia v global’noi politike, vol. 10, no. 1

(Jan- Feb, 2012), pp. 46-59. Also published in English as “Making Sense of Self-

Representations.” Russia in Global Affairs, vol. 10, no. 2 (April-June 2012).

Thomas Sherlock, “Confronting the Stalinist Past.” Washington Quarterly, vol. 34, no. 2 (2011), pp. 93-109.

Thomas Sherlock and Jon Dorschner, “Radicalism and Education in Pakistan.” In Laurel Hummel and Richard Wolfel, eds., Understanding Pakistan through Human and Environmental Systems. Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2011, pp. 305-332.

Thomas Sherlock, “Stalin’s Ghost and the Great Patriotic War.” International Herald Tribune [international edition of The New York Times], May 10, 2010. Republished in RIANovosti, the Kyiv Post, and the Georgian Daily.

Thomas Sherlock, “Unhealed Wounds: The Struggle over the Memory of World War II.”

Ab Imperio (peer-reviewed history journal), no. 3, 2009.

Thomas Sherlock, “Russia.” In Amos Jordan, Suzanne Nielsen, et al., eds., American National Security. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2009.

Thomas Sherlock, “2009: Another Year of Living Dangerously? Ukraine and Regional Politics.” Zovnishni spravy: ZS (Foreign Affairs, Ukrainian journal of international politics), No, 3, 2009.

Thomas Sherlock, “Alone Together: U.S.-Russian Relations in the Post-Soviet Era.” In Isaiah Wilson and James Forest, eds., Defense Politics: International and Comparative Perspectives. London: Routledge, 2009.

Thomas Sherlock, “The Wars in Chechnya and the Decay of Russian Democratization.” In James Forest, ed., Countering Terrorism and Insurgency in the 21^st Century. International Perspectives. Westport, CT: Praeger, 2007.

Thomas Sherlock (with Jon Dorschner), “The Role of History Textbooks in Shaping Collective Identities in India and Pakistan.” In Teaching the Violent Past: History Education and Reconciliation. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2007. Republished by the Northeast Asian History Foundation, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Thomas Sherlock, “History and Myth in the Soviet Empire and the Russian Republic.” In Elizabeth Cole, ed., Teaching the Violent Past: History Education and Reconciliation. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2007.

Thomas Sherlock, "Shaping Political Identity through Historical Discourse: The Memory of Soviet Mass Crimes." In Beatrice Pouligny, Simon Chesterman, Albrecht Schnabel, eds., After Mass Crime: Rebuilding States and Communities. New York: United Nations University Press, 2007.

Thomas Sherlock, “Misconceptions about Russian and American Textbooks.” EUROCLIO Bulletin [The Netherlands], no. 20, 2004, pp. 76-80.

Thomas Sherlock, “Proshloe kak politiki: istoricheskaia nauka i istoricheskoe obrazovanie

v Rossii v epokhu reform i revoliutsii.” Prepodavanie istorii i obshchestvovedeniia v shkole [Teaching History and the Social Studies in School, Moscow], no. 2, 2004, pp. 65-75.

Thomas Sherlock, “Baltic History and Soviet Empire: Recovering the Past in Soviet and Russian Discourse.” Ab Imperio, no. 4, 2002, pp. 391-423.

Thomas Sherlock (with Christopher Chambers and Paul Kucik), “The Army Game Project.” Army Magazine vol. 52, no. 6 (June), 2002.

Thomas Sherlock (with Cynthia Roberts), “Bringing the Russian State Back In: Explanations for the Derailed Transition to Market Democracy.” Comparative Politics, vol. 31, no. 4 (July) 1999, pp. 477-498.

Thomas Sherlock, “Politics and History under Gorbachev.” In Alexander Dallin and Gail Lapidus, eds., The Soviet System: From Crisis to Collapse. Boulder: Westview Press, 1991, pp. 270-290. Originally published as “Politics and History,” Problems of Communism, May-August 1988.

Thomas Sherlock and Vera Tolz, “Controverses sur le nombre des victimes de Staline.” Commentaire (Paris), Spring, 1990, pp. 165-170.

Select Conference Papers, Invited Presentations, and Consultations (2012 to present)

Paper presentation, “Russian Political Culture and the External Environment,” Association for the Study of Nationalities, Annual Convention, Columbia University, May 4, 2019.

Invited presentation, “1917 in 2017: the Politicized Remembrance of Revolution.” Bard College, Centenary of the 1917 Revolution Symposium, October 20, 2017.

Invited Presentation, “Polish-Russian Relations after Crimea,” Consulate of Poland, New York City. April 25, 2017.

Panel discussant, “Russia Confronts the West.” Association for the Study of Nationalities, Annual Convention, Columbia University, May 4-6, 2017.

Paper presentation, “Russian Politics and the Soviet Past; Reassessing Stalin Under Putin.” Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies (ASEEES) Annual Conference, November 17-20, 2016.

Invited presentation (for Minerva Initiative grant recipients), “Understanding Russian Nationalism through Opinion Surveys: Elite and Mass Dimensions.” 2016 Minerva Initiative Meeting and Program Review, Washington, D.C., September 15, 2016.

Invited presentation, CNA (Center for Naval Analysis), Roundtable, “The China-Russia Relationship: Collaborative Implications.” Washington, D.C., August 9, 2016.

Paper presentation (with Anna Shirokanova), “An Assessment of Democratic Values in Russia.” International Association for the Humanities (MAG) Annual conference, Lviv, Ukraine, June 28, 2016.

Invited presentation, United States European Command (EUCOM), “Russian Politics and Public Opinion: Key Frames and Cultural Scripts.” Telecom, September 4 and 17, 2015. Component of the Joint Staff Strategic Multi-layer Assessment (SMA) lecture series in support of U.S. European Command efforts to identify emerging Russian threats. Assessment published in Belinda Bragg, et al., Expert Elicitation Summary Report: Research to Identify Drivers of Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia in the Next 5-25 Years, Boston: NSI, 2016.

Paper presentation (with Anna Shirokanova), “Thick, Thin, or Non-Existent: Evaluating Democratic Values in Russia.” Association for the Study of Slavic, Eastern European, and Eurasian Studies (ASEEES), Annual Convention, Philadelphia, PA, November 22, 2015.

Invited presentation (for Minerva grant recipients), “A New Cold War? Russian Public Opinion as a Key Variable.” 2015 Minerva Initiative Meeting and Program Review, Washington, D.C., September 9, 2015.

Invited presentation, Institute for National Security Studies Workshop, “The Dimensions of the Emerging Russian Threat.” US Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, CO, AUG 4-5, 2015.

Invited panelist, Yale Veterans Summit: Bridging the Divide: The Way Forward in U.S. Civil-Military Relations. “Educating Tomorrow’s Leaders: Challenges and Opportunities at the Service Academies.” Yale University, April 10-11, 2015.

Invited presentation, “The Institutional Sources of the Kremlin’s Power.” Wesleyan University, November 19, 2014.

Invited presentation, “Poland’s Emerging Role in Shaping Regional Security.” APAC conference, Yale University, December 7, 2014.

Panel chair and discussant, “Ukrainians and Belarussians Between East and West,” Association for the Study of Nationalities Annual Convention, Columbia University, New York, New York. April 24-26, 2014.

Invited Presentation, “Political Crisis in Ukraine: An Assessment.” Business Executives for National Security (BENS), March 21, 2014.

Paper presentation, “Restoring a Soviet-style Hegemonic Narrative? The Adoption of a Single History Textbook in Russia: Prospects and Significance.” Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies (ASEEES), Annual Convention, Boston, MA, November 21-24, 2013.

Invited paper presentation, “The Prospects for Political Settlement in Afghanistan: Socio-

Economic and Political Variables.” Conference, NATO International School (Baku,

Azerbaijan), Afghanistan: Beyond 2014, July 1-4, 2013.

Chair and discussant, Association for the Study of Nationalities Annual Convention, Columbia University, New York, New York, April 18-20, 2013.

Paper Presentation, “The Second Image Reversed: How the International Environment Shapes Domestic Political Culture.” Association for Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies, Annual Convention, New Orleans, LA., November 15-18, 2012.

Invited Paper Presentation, “Modernization and Memory: Comparing the United States and Russia.” Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University, New Haven, CT., March 31, 2012.

Recent Research Grants

Kennan Institute/Wilson Center, Washington, D.C. grant:

2019

To support travel and research in Russia

Minerva Research Initiative (R-DEF) grants:

2017-2018
2016
2015

To support field work and the organization of focus groups in Russia (2015-2016, 2017); and in China and Russia (2018)

On-going Research Projects

Implementation of large-N surveys to support a comparative assessment of Sino-Russian norms and interests (COL John Gregory, co-researcher)

Book-length manuscript on the evolution of elite and mass political culture in post-Soviet Russia. The study seeks to measure the extent to which Russian elites and masses support civic and democratic values, a private economic sector, and a pacific foreign policy that privileges a European identity.