Question (R2 #2): In countries where polling shows favorable opinions of ISIL (Syria, Nigeria, Tunisia, Senegal and Malaysia), what does this tell us? What do these countries have in common? What is our best approach to influence/inform?

Opinion polls conducted by independent outfits in 2015 and 2016 derive the same result: the vast majority of Muslims in the region—both inside and outside of the CJOA—do not support ISIL. In fact, ISIL enjoys very low support as a percent of the population across all countries covered by the surveys included in this compilation. Syria showed the highest level of support (20%) while most Muslim-majority countries fall in the single digits (Mauro, 2015). These low numbers recede further when support is defined as providing active or material support rather than sympathy for the cause (Burson-Marsteller, 2016).

This report marries contemporary social science theory, applied research, and operational experience to provide a range of perspectives on terrorism to challenge the reader to ask better, more relevant questions.

The Concepts & Analysis of Nuclear Strategy (CANS) project undertaken for US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) was tasked to examine the utility of alternative analytic techniques for assessing nuclear force attributes and sufficiency under a variety of changed conditions. The CANS software developed during this effort is designed to enhance the planning process by guiding the analyst through the process of selecting appropriate alternate analytic techniques.

If there were a simple solution for countering violent extremism, a solution would have been found centuries ago. Countering violent extremism successfully requires a balanced approach between security-related strategies and initiatives and those that address the underlying motivations and causes for participation in, and support of, a violent extremist organization (VEO). These strategies and initiatives need to be based on nuanced understanding of the various aspects of violent extremism—not only the environments that are likely to spawn violent extremism and sympathetic supporters, but also

In August 2021, many of you participated in SMA’s inaugural Survey for Eliciting Expert Knowledge (SEEK) outreach. SEEK is SMA’s new, online capability for tapping into the collective knowledge, experience, and wisdom of our 5000+ person community of interest to generate crowdsourced insights on questions of interest. We conducted two surveys as part of this inaugural SEEK—one on deterrence and strategic stability, and a second on perceptions of threats and opportunities among US competitors. Perhaps surprisingly, we found:

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle E. Murauskaite (University of Maryland, ICONS) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. The US has given military support to Ukraine as it defends against a Russian invasion. This support includes arms transfers, training for soldiers, and intelligence sharing during information operations. The US has been able to escalate its military support for Ukraine while also avoiding a direct military response from Russia. Also, the assumption that US arms transfers would increase arms smuggling in the region has been proven false. Instead, human trafficking has increased; however, this is a common war-time phenomenon. The aid that US and allies gave to Ukraine before the war has significantly influenced the conflict’s current state. This aid included peace-time military training of troops from 2014-2020.

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Sherlock (Professor of Political Science, United States Military Academy, West Point) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA CENTCOM/AFRICOM Speaker Series, entitled “The Clash of Values in the Middle East and North Africa: Islamic Fundamentalism versus Liberal Nationalism.” The speaker was Dr. Mansoor Moaddel (University of Maryland).Dr. Moaddel began his presentation with an explanation of the methodology that he used in his research, which focused on shifts in values in the Middle East and North Africa. He identified four historically significant issues that act as features of cultural warfare: 1) secular politics, 2) national identity, 3) religious tolerance, and 4) gender equality. Dr. Moaddel assessed these four factors across a variety of countries, namely Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey. He stated that secular politics act as a composite measure with four indicators: 1) separation of religion and politics, 2) desirability of a Western-type government, 3) Islamic governance, and 4) Sharia. Identity highlights the contrast between religious and national identity in Middle Eastern and North African countries. It also covers trends occurring in terms of national identity. With regards to religious tolerance, Dr. Moaddel constructed an index that posed a variety of questions aiming to measure individuals’ beliefs regarding Islam and the tolerance of other religious beliefs in Muslim-dominated regions. He constructed a similar index when examining gender equality, in which he posed five questions to individuals regarding their beliefs on equality between men and women. After conducting his research, Dr. Moaddel concluded that ideas are significantly important in bringing about a new pattern of historical development.

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Prof. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University), Dr. Cynthia Watson (National Defense University), Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy, West Point), and Col E. John Gregory (United States Military Academy, West Point). The moderator was Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.).

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Dr. Vera Mironova (Harvard University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. During her brief, Dr. Mironova presented the results of her December 2018-January 2019 survey of civilians and ISIS families in Mosul and its surrounding areas. Her research sought to answer the following questions: 1) What was ISIS?; 2) Why did people in Mosul support ISIS?; 3) Who is to blame for the crimes committed by ISIS?; 4) Who should be held accountable for their role in supporting ISIS?; and 5) Who deserves punishment for their support of ISIS, and what type(s) of punishment do they deserve? Dr. Mironova then highlighted some of her findings. There was a discrepancy between civilians’ (i.e., those victimized by ISIS) and ISIS families’ answers regarding whether ISIS was immediately welcomed when it moved into Mosul. Civilians and families did agree, however, that those who publicly supported ISIS in Mosul most commonly did so because they yearned for power and money. ISIS families also argued that some individuals may have joined ISIS to improve the economy, to improve law and order, to fight crime and corruption, and to fight immorality in society.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Maria Snegovaya (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Snegovaya first explained that there is a tradeoff between military and consumer spending: as a country invests more in its military (i.e., produces more guns), it must reduce household consumption (i.e., butter). Moreover, in times of economic stagnation or decline, overall production elevation is often infeasible, and thus a country must prioritize guns over butter. This can then have a significant impact on a country’s domestic public opinion and influence a population’s changing priorities. In her research, Dr. Snegovaya assessed to what extent these dynamics can be found in Russia.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy at West Point) and Col E. John Gregory (US Army) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict Speaker Series. In their research, Col Gregory and Dr. Sherlock examined the prospects for the future of the China-Russia relationship by surveying Chinese and Russian youths. They also aimed to determine whether common opinions are a result of political views or merely hedging behaviors.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Justin Richmond (Impl. Project) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series. Mr. Richmond first explained that the Implementation “Impl.” Project establishes data ecosystems to assess, monitor, and evaluate social health and cohesion. Moreover, the Impl. Project addresses the underlying systematic causes of instability by conducting large community perception surveys and determines how to help communities increase their resiliency.

During his presentation, Dr. Sherlock discussed a study that draws upon Russian public opinion surveys conducted over the past 2-3 years.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Hoshang Waziri (ARTIS International) and Dr. Scott Atran (ARTIS International / University of Michigan) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series.

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Jerry Hansen (Gallup) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During his presentation, Mr. Hansen discussed Gallup’s ongoing work and highlighted its World Poll initiative.

This study examines direct, interactive, and indirect effects of racial identity and depression in a sample of 379 African American women

A web-based study of 393 undergraduates at a public university in the United States was conducted to examine the relationship between moral emotions (i.e., emotions that motivate prosocial tendencies) and support for political actions to assist Iraqi citizens after the Second Gulf War (2003–2004).