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SMA Publications (Tagged: Russia)

SMA Publication

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

The report is organized around these three overarching concepts – state interest, perceived threats and opportunities, and international activities. The introduction details a theoretical background for each, and explains how, together, they offer a general framework for understanding the choices and behaviors of states in the international system. The concepts implicit in these two questions are complex and interdependent – requiring bounding choices. To stay within the scope of this project while providing a comprehensive mapping of the problem space, we have chosen to provide a high-level overview and comparison of all four states. For readers seeking a deeper dive into specific aspects of these questions for individual states, the reference section at the end of the report includes links to other SMA work with this level of detail. In this report we focus on how understanding these concepts provides a framework for expanding our understanding of deterrence strategy to account for the multi-domain as well as multi-actor nature of contemporary deterrence.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Crimea

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders prior to and during the annexation of Crimea. Putin’s leading indicators, those of Crimean leaders and the Russian-supported President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, are presented separately.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike. Additionally, bilateral arms control measures (norms, treaties, protocols, institutions) provide additional stability. The problem with multicountry nuclear deterrence is that there are no levels of armaments that can support stable deterrence relations among three or more adversaries; except in cases when adversaries coalesce into two alliances, in which case the system reduces to bilateral nuclear deterrence. This paper approaches this problem through formal methods and conceptualizes a solution involving an ensemble of military and politico-diplomatic strategies which, when operating as an enhanced international security regime, can mitigate the fundamental instability of the current multicountry nuclear deterrence system.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Global Power Competition

As Russia continues to challenge United States’ power and influence around the world, its activities in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility (AOR) represent a useful lens with which to view this conflict. In Iraq and Syria, both Russia and the United States (and its Coalition) have been drawn into this layered conflict to challenge or defend the status quo with varying degrees of success and impact. While experts question whether Russia can challenge the United States globally, it can likely operate on the margins of United States interests, with a series of surgical and lower-level policy decisions. To that point, some respondents, including Edward Chow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vern Liebl of the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning at Marine Corps University, argue that they do not consider Russia a true peer and challenger of US global influence. Instead of global dominance, Russia is seeking to “marginalize US power and influence in regions they deem important to their interests” (Chow). Contributors agreed, though, that Russia is well positioned to capitalize on opportunities for growth and influence in the Middle East. This report looks at Russia’s interests, actions, and likelihood of success in challenging US global influence through these conflicts.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Strategic Risk in the Space Domain

This report summarizes the input of 15 insightful responses contributed by space experts from National Security Space, industry, academia, government, think tanks, and space law and policy communities. This input includes expert contributions from US voices as well as non-US voices from Australia, India, Italy, and the UK. While this summary response presents an overview of key subject matter expert contributor insights, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the contributor inputs provided, each of which is worth reading in its entirety.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Ally, Adversary, and Partner Use of Space

Given the complex nature of this question and the number of countries covered, the body of this summary response has been organized by country. Looking across all these countries, however, several themes and patterns emerge, and these are presented in Table 1 below. While Iran, Russia, the PRC, and North Korea have historically seen space as integral to national security and defense, the expert responses suggest this attitude is spreading. Motivated by the perception that regional instability is increasing, many other states, which previously conceived of their space operations as primarily civil in nature, are beginning to regard space as essential to their national security and defense. This, in turn, has led to a greater focus on dual-use technologies. Many, not just Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, also view space as a source of national pride and international prestige. Finally, while the specific organization of the space sectors in these countries may differ, all have fewer institutional barriers to military use of civil (government and/or commercial) capabilities than we see in the US. Furthermore, there are institutional and financial incentives for government and commercial entities to work together. These findings are consistent with the analysis of the experts who contributed to Question 7.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Int'l Norms Transgressions Magnify Gray Zone Challenges

The current international system presents multiple potential challenges to US interests. In recent years, state actors, especially but not limited to Russia and China, have taken actions that disrupt regional stability and potentially threaten US interests (Bragg, 2016). Many of these challenges are neither “traditional” military actions nor “normal” competition, but rather fall into a class of actions we have come to call “gray” (Votel, 2015). Here we define the concept as: “the purposeful use of single or multiple instruments of power to achieve security objectives by way of activities that are typically ambiguous or cloud attribution, and exceed the threshold of ordinary competition, yet intentionally fall below the level of [proportional response and] large-scale direct military conflict, and threaten the interests of other actors by challenging, undermining, or violating international customs, norms, or laws.” (Popp and Canna, 2016).
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Part 4 Actor Interests and Motivations

This is Part 4 of a 9 part series of SMA Reach back responses to questions posed by USCENTCOM. Each report contains responses to multiple questions grouped by theme. At the request of United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), the Joint Staff, jointly with other elements in the JS, Services, and U.S. Government (USG) Agencies, has established a SMA virtual reach-back cell. This initiative, based on the SMA global network of scholars and area experts, is providing USCENTCOM with population based and regional expertise in support of ongoing operations in the Iraq/Syria region.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Discourse Indicators of Gray Zone: Estonia

The increasing use of emotive themes and rhetorical devices (that amplify a message’s emotional effect) provide indicators of gray zone activities in speeches made by Eurasian regional leaders and has the potential to provide leading indicators and reveal key issues and concerns.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Regional Interests Analysis

Question (S2): In light of their divergent goals and interests, what are the necessary factors that would permit the U.S.-led Coalition, regional stakeholders (including Israel, Russia, and Iran), or jihadist groups to achieve their aims in Iraq? Where do disparate groups’ interests align and where do they diverge? What can the U.S. coalition do to deny adversaries the ability to achieve their goals?
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Putin's Information Warfare in Ukraine

Russia has been using an advanced form of hybrid warfare in Ukraine since early 2014 that relies heavily on an element of information warfare that the Russians call “reflexive control.” Reflexive control causes a stronger adversary voluntarily to choose the actions most advantageous to Russian objectives by shaping the adversary’s perceptions of the situation decisively. Moscow has used this technique skillfully to persuade the U.S. and its European allies to remain largely passive in the face of Russia’s efforts to disrupt and dismantle Ukraine through military and non-military means. The West must become alert to the use of reflexive control techniques and find ways to counter them if it is to succeed in an era of hybrid war.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Understand and Respond to Contemporary Russia

More than two years after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the West continues coming to terms with the implications of this event. As discussed by the project’s the first report, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ quickly established itself, because it seemed to be particularly useful to explain recent changes in Russian defence and foreign policy. The report highlighted that the concept was indeed valuable in drawing the attention of policymakers to some new security challenges. At the same time, the report cautioned that beyond this initial usefulness, the concept of ‘hybrid warfare’ as an explanation for almost every Russian policy move is likely to do more harm than good to our understanding of developments in Russia, as well as to the process of identifying and implementing realistic responses.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

The Conflict in the Donbas between Gray and Black

The current case study analyzes the presence and importance of Gray Zone conflict dynamics and the employment of various instruments of power during the still ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) since its beginning in 2014. More specifically, it studies the use of various instruments of power across a number of conflict dyads, present in the conflict. The case study’s findings can better inform practitioners and analysts about the presence, content, and effectiveness of utilizing different instruments of power in the Gray Zone.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Part IV: Results of 5 of 8 Conflicts in Iraqi-Syria

This briefing is the final part of a four-part study exploring the dynamics of the central Middle East conflict system. Part II describes the system and why it is critical to assess U.S. security interests and activities in the context of the entire system rather than just the conflicts (e.g., defeat of ISIL) in which the U.S. is most interested. Part II describes the analytic approach used to assess regional dynamics and regional futures based on the alignments and conflicts among three critical drivers: actor interests, resources and resolves. Part III illustrates the analytic process applied to 20-plus actor over five of the eight conflicts. Part IV presents the results of the interest, resolve, capability assessment.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (ExecSum)

This project identified threats and opportunities in Eurasia (with particular emphasis on USEUCOM area of responsibility (AOR) countries). This report provides an overview of the regional issues identified by the US, Russia, NATO, and the EU in policy statements, speeches, and the media, and how they intersect with actor interests. It then presents the major themes arising from the integration of the team findings in response to USEUCOM’s questions, in particular the importance of understanding Russia’s worldview, and the subsequent recommendations for reducing conflict and increasing the probability of cooperation with Russia.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Conflict and Convergence in Eurasia (Integration)

Evaluating strategic risk in the Eurasia region over the next two to three decades is a complex challenge that is vital for USEUCOM planning and mission success. The depth of our understanding of the diverse set of political, economic, and social actors in the region will determine how effectively we respond to emerging opportunities and threats to US interests. A better understanding of Russia’s priorities and interests, and their implications, both regionally and globally, will help planners and policy makers both anticipate and respond to future developments.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Thematic Analysis of Russian and NATO Speeches

This study addresses key questions posed in the SMA EUCOM project by using thematic analysis of speeches from leaders of state and non-state polities in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the Caucasus. The importance of an issue is measured by the density (mentions/words in speech) with which it is mentioned and the use of associated emotive language.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Geopolitical Visions in Russian Media

This study sought to examine future political, security, societal and economic trends to identify where U.S. interests are in cooperation or conflict with Russian interests, and in particular, identify leverage points when dealing with Russia in a global context.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

Eurasia Strategic Risk and Future Trends

The GMU Eurasia Strategic Risk project examined future political, security, societal and economic trends as they apply to the decision calculus of key Eurasian regional actors. Timed Influence Net (TIN) models were used to identify potential sources of strategic risk for the United States by focusing on actions and behaviors that would be considered adverse by the United States, NATO, and other U.S. partner nations. The goal was to provide planners with a tool that can be used to inform their discussions with military and non-military staffs from both the United States and its partners on potential Eurasia strategies. Among the key observations: When the adverse behaviors the United States seeks to influence are not related to a perceived existential threat to a NATO member, classical deterrence cost-benefit calculations lose importance. However, Russia’s perceived cost-benefit calculations of not acting, and its perception of the decision calculus of the United States and its partners remain important considerations. For this reason, the study concludes that NATO’s Article V will continue to serve as an effective deterrent to actions which the Alliance believes constitute an existential threat to a member country, but is less likely to deter attacks that do not jeopardize a member state’s existence because the political cost of restraint for Russia outweighs the potential cost of a likely NATO response.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

9th Annual SMA Conference - No War/No Peace...

Since the end of the Cold War and with the advent of the new century, new geopolitical realities have emerged that have made classical wars with national military forces pitted against each other far less likely. What we are witnessing are new categories of conflict that cannot be considered full1scale wars in the classical sense but cannot be described as “peace” either. Small1scale conflicts are complemented with intense engagement in the Information and other Spheres. These will almost certainly have great implications in the legal domains as well new forms of alliances. Multiple factors have come into play for these trends to emerge. This is a story of change versus continuity, and the conference focused on what has changed since the collapse of the USSR. As such, there are structural and intellectual challenges that prevent the United States Government (USG) from adapting and thriving is this new environment.
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Russian Opportunities and Challenges in the Arctic

The receding of the Arctic ice presents the Russian Federation with complex opportunities and challenges, both domestic and international. Russia is investing heavily in developing the infrastructure on its Arctic coastline to support both destination shipping in the Arctic and transit shipping through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The estimated resources in the Russian Arctic Region in energy and minerals are very large but their extraction requires major long term investments and such investments are high risk ones because of harsh weather and the insufficiency of the existing infrastructure; some of the existing infrastructure is degrading because of the thawing of the permafrost. Russia’s effort to modernize its Armed Forces has included the creation of the Arctic Joint Strategic Command that includes the Northern Fleet. Old bases are being re‐opened and new bases are created in the Arctic region. These developments in the Arctic show clearly that the Far North is expected to have a major role in the future of Russia not only for economic reasons but also as a common theme, a common narrative that resonates with the Russian people. It will be unwise to interpret all Russian actions in the Arctic as being statements to the West or to the East. It will be helpful if they are also interpreted in terms of internal domestic (and nationalistic) considerations.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Subjective Decision Analysis: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ...

The SMA Strategic Deterrence effort is a methodological study to evaluate the appropriateness and utility of modeling and wargaming to support the analytic requirements of the Deterrence Operations Joint Operating Concept (DO JOC). The objective of the study is to determine which aspects of deterrence operations and planning can be appropriately analyzed through gaming, and which aspects can be appropriately analyzed through different forms of modeling. The project also examines the synthesis of deterrence gaming and modeling, how the results of gaming can inform deterrence modeling, and how modeling can shape deterrence gaming.
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

ViTTa Analysis of Eurasia in the Next 5-25 Years

From July through November 2015, NSI employed its Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) methodology to systematically interview 26 subject matter experts in support of a Strategic Multilayer Assessment effort to research and identify drivers of conflict and cooperation in Eurasia in the next 5-25 years. Representatives from the United States European Command (EUCOM) provided 37 questions to guide the interview effort (see Appendix A). This report summarizes SME knowledge and insights on these questions—grouped into nine chapters.
Year Published:
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SMA Publication

Vladimir Putin’s Worldview and Perspectives on Space

A corpus of Vladimir Putin’s speeches was drawn from his official Kremlin website. The corpus was examined using semi-automated discourse analysis to gauge Putin’s concerns with space and how these are articulated with general political and cultural issues. The primary findings from the discourse are presented as Putin’s perspectives and worldview with respect to the space domain and general themes.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

International Collaboration in U.S. Integrated Deterrence: A Partner Perspective

This non-paper, prepared at the Swedish Defence University (SEDU), investigates the dynamics of deterrence in cooperation with the U.S.1 It is crafted for the SMA audience, providing preliminary insights into collaborative efforts within ID and emphasizing the value of partner contributions.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

CONCESSIONS TO THE LIMITED POWERS: Considerations of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons, Asymmetrical Capability, and Extended Deterrence

Quite recently, nuclear strategy scholars Kier Lieber and Daryl Press posited that arms’ tables have turned, citing the asymmetry of limited nuclear powers as a reboot of the United States (US)-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) tactical nuclear playbook during the Cold War. Their key message—that “The United States must take seriously the nuclear capabilities and resolve of its foes”—isn’t lost on us: we previously called for the need to begin serious counter-weapons of mass destruction (WMD) planning for adversarial use of nuclear weapons below the threshold of Armageddon.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Integrated Deterrence Reachback Study

This work was situated within the broader Strategic Multilayer Assessment Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF) study, which incorporated four lines of effort (LOEs) and was initiated at the request of US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Russian Nuclear Rhetoric 2014-2023: Transatlantic Differences in Threat Perception

After decades of discourse on disarmament and non-proliferation, the war in Ukraine has effectively marked the return of nuclear weapons to both mainstream public rhetoric and military-policy planning, and highlighted the growing importance of strategic deterrence. Russia’s progressively more intense nuclear saber-rattling over the past decade is partly due to an updated NATO posture and gradual commitments by Western nuclear powers to update their arsenals.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23) provides a shared understanding of the Evolving Security Environment to 2043, thus establishing the context for Allied futures thinking. Based on this context, the Future Operating Environment 2024 (FOE24) will address the military problem sets for Allied Warfare Development. FOE24 will also serve as a baseline for further conceptual and strategic thinking. The renewed foresight cycle, consisting of SFA23, FOE24 and deployable foresight analytics capacities, will facilitate collective futures thinking within the Alliance, as well as augment individual Ally’s foresight capabilities.
Year Published:
2024
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SMA Publication

Russian Strategic Deterrence Frameworks

This paper is structured around four key sections, each answering a core question. First,what is the relationship between Russia’s core strategic goals and the foundations of Russian strategic deterrence? Second, how has Russian strategic nuclear thought evolved from the Stalinist era to the present and, third, how can Russia’s approach to deterrence be contextualized within Moscow’s larger strategic competition with the US? Fourth, how does Russia’s approach to deterrence in the context of the Ukraine war currently impact the ways in which the West engages Russia?
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

Strategic Culture Literature Review

The concept of strategic culture emerges in discussions of both tailored and integrated deterrence. This report examines the concept’s history, current consensus, and enduring debates about what it entails. It also proposes a model of strategic culture as a complex system.
Year Published:
2023
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SMA Publication

SMA SEEK Results: Expanding US Nuclear Capability & Pessimism About Nuclear Use in the Next 15 Years

In August 2021, many of you participated in SMA’s inaugural Survey for Eliciting Expert Knowledge (SEEK) outreach. SEEK is SMA’s new, online capability for tapping into the collective knowledge, experience, and wisdom of our 5000+ person community of interest to generate crowdsourced insights on questions of interest. We conducted two surveys as part of this inaugural SEEK—one on deterrence and strategic stability, and a second on perceptions of threats and opportunities among US competitors. Perhaps surprisingly, we found:
Year Published:
2022
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SMA Publication

Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain

This report details Russian and Chinese media presentations of operations and intentions in the space domain to their respective populations. These presentations provide us insight into how members of these nation states understand their government’s intentions and activities in the space domain, the opportunities and challenges their government’s face in approaching those intentions and activities, the alliances and norms necessary for space usage, and which actors are attempting to destabilizing the space domain.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

The Challenge of Russia’s Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Western Air Supremacy as One Russian Justification for NSNW

Significant and enduring US/NATO advantages in aircraft and precision-guided munitions drives the Russian need for a varied and large stock of non-strategic nuclear weapons (NSNW). NATO nations, particularly those on the eastern periphery of the alliance, perceive a need for this defensive air combat capability to ensure their security. Russia views events – such as the Kosovo War and Desert Storm – as validating its fear that these capabilities could be used offensively against it. Moreover, for historical and geographical reasons, Russia is apprehensive about threats all along its dynamic European border. Against large numbers of truly fifth-generation F-22s and F-35s, backed by fourth-plus-generation F- 15EXs and Block III F-18E/Fs, Russian air defenders will likely experience high early attrition rates in a military conflict. The United States is expected to retain this advantage well into the future, as it is already flight testing is latest sixth-generation fighter aircraft. Based on this firm sense of technological and numerical inferiority, Russian political and military leadership perceives the need for a range of non- strategic nuclear capabilities.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Escalatory Attraction of Limited Nuclear Employment For Great Power Competitors of the United States

The United States has entered into a dangerously new era in which, for the first time in our nation’s history, we now face two nuclear-armed great power competitors. Over the past three decades, while the United States has been focused on a variety of other national security challenges, Russia and China have observed the “US way of war” and made immense strides to position themselves to successfully counter that. While having achieved some level of success in closing the gap across a wide spectrum of military capabilities and operational realities, those two nuclear-armed peers have concluded not only that limited nuclear employment might be required in any conflict with the United States, but that this is a domain of conflict and level of escalation affording unique advantage for them since it is an area in which the US has neither the perceived will nor the perceived capabilities to compete. This paper discusses that “escalatory attraction” of limited nuclear employment for our great power competitors.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation

In practice, there are three main forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling. First, intermingling between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems can occur via the fielding of dual capable delivery systems like missiles or aircraft. Second, intermingling can happen due to the co-location of nuclear and non-nuclear forces and their support structures—for example, the co-location of strategic bombers and general-purpose aircraft, or the co-location of strategic submarines and general-purpose vessels. Third, intermingling can occur via convolving nuclear and conventional military command and control systems, to include ballistic missile early warning and potentially space surveillance systems as well.
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Operations in the Information Environment: Course of Action Analysis Exercise

The ICONS Project, a wargaming and simulation organization at the University of Maryland, was asked by the Joint Staff, J39, DDGO, Strategic Multilayer Assessment Office (SMA), to design, execute, and analyze a Table Top Exercise (TTX) in support of the Integration of Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) research
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Experimental Red Teaming to Support Integration of Information in Joint Operations

This report supported SMA’s Integrating Information in Joint Operations (IIJO) project. For additional speaker sessions and project publications, please visit the IIJO project page.As part of the modeling and simulation phase of the IIJO effort, the Center for Advanced Red
Year Published:
2021
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SMA Publication

Media Reporting on Egypt’s Economy and Bailout Narratives: The Role of Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian Media Narratives in Solving Egypt’s Economic Crisis

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Strategic Implications of Population Dynamics in the Central Region—Integration Report: Great Power Competition

At the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. The effort examined drivers of instability in the region emerging from radicalization, great power competition, state-level instability, and black swan scenarios. This report integrates the research conducted by the teams listed on the front cover in response to USCENTCOM’s questions about great power competition. This report is intended to be a succinct, easily navigable representation of the exceptional work by the collective SMA team. Please click on the links embedded in the report to go directly to the research studies.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

A "Colder War" Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players

This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the formation of a China-Russia Axis and subsequent emergence of a Middle East and North Africa (MENA) periphery.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Central Region Instability Dynamics

With support from GTRI, GMU worked with Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA) Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to assess strategic risk to U.S. and partner interests in the Middle East caused by great power competition in the region.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Sino-Russian Competition: Self-Inflicted Competition in Central Asia?

China and Russia support each other’s political and economic objectives both globally and in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) because, in part, of a strong mutual interest in weakening the United States’ geopolitical influence and power (Solomentseva, 2014; Lons, 2019).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Assessing Buffers and Drivers of Conflict in the Arab Gulf

Experts contend that the risk of militarization of the dispute between Qatar and the Quartet is low. However, prolonged tension between the two sides has failed attempts at mediation and the underlying issues persist.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

SMA Invited Perspectives Series: SOF Paradigm in Great Power Competition

The current National Security, Defense, and Military Strategies identify great power rivalries from Russia and China as two of the main challenges facing the United States for the foreseeable future.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

The Future of Global Competition & Conflict Comparative Analysis: A Media Ecology & Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group Report

This report provides a comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media narratives regarding visions of the future of global competition, including their instruments of exerting power (DIME), purported vulnerabilities and necessary capabilities, projected allies and adversaries, views on the future of global order (FGO), the US, and EU, as well as the available means by which global competition should be managed.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Russia Country Report- An NSI Aggrieved Populations Analysis

Russia’s population was found to be risk acceptant across all three datasets that were analyzed. Even though Russia suffers from both internal and external threats as well as a large income gap, its Arrow- Pratt score is higher than the median for all countries.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Overcoming “the Silo Effect” in the Department of Defense

Different perspectives and operational goals across services allows for specialized expertise, but also creates a vulnerability for silo creation. At times, these silos can inhibit cooperation, limit mission effectiveness, and leave critical decision points inadequately addressed. There is a need for more deliberate planning and operational execution that cuts across multiple services and perspectives in order to better balance requirements, more efficiently plan, and more holistically address national security challenges. This need applies not only to operational decisions but also in evaluating ongoing programs to determine their continued effectiveness.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA's Future of Global Competition & Conflict (GCC) Russia Panel Discussion

On 8 May 2019, the Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA, Joint Staff, J39) office, with the support of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) and National Defense University (NDU), convened a panel discussion on Russia in support of the SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict effort. The scope of the day’s event was Russian activities in the Gray Zone, its perception of global competition and conflict worldwide, and its long-term growth trends, economic activities, and diplomatic affairs. The event convened speakers from government, think tanks, and the academic community; each speaker offered prepared remarks, and then assembled to debrief and take questions.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Grand Strategy Alternatives

The SMA Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict project is researching how the United States might strategize to defend its global interests. This paper supports the project in deriving some grand strategy alternatives specifically related to China (twelve) and Russia (ten). The development of the alternatives draws on a broader spectrum of international relation’s theories than the restricted neorealist set generally employ. The study’s aims are to encourage the consideration of tangential approaches, suggest different framing mechanisms that could restructure our thinking about managing great power competition, and briefly outline a range of alternative ways to meet the challenges China and Russia pose.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

SMA TRADOC White Paper- Russian Strategic Intentions

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict, in direct response to a series of questions posed by the United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). Twenty-three experts contributed to this white paper and provided wide-ranging assessments of Russia’s global interests and objectives, as well as the activities—gray or otherwise—that it conducts to achieve them. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-five chapters, as described below. This summary reports some of the white paper’s high-level findings, but it is no substitute for a careful read of the individual contributions.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Media Narrative Analysis: Iranian, Russian, and Chinese News Coverage of the Future of Afghanistan

This project analyzed Chinese, Russian, and Iranian media narratives concerning interests in, and future prospects of, Afghanistan stability through three phases: Phase I (May-June, 2018; 79 articles), Phase II, (July-August, 2018; 124 articles), Phase III (October-September, 2018; 180 articles). Across these three phases, the analysis revealed consistent narrative patterns regarding the following:
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

AI, China, Russia, and the Global Order: Technological, Political, Global, and Creative Perspectives

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data promise to help reshape the global order. For decades, most political observers believed that liberal democracy offered the only plausible future pathways for big, industrially sophisticated countries to make their citizens rich. Now, by allowing governments to monitor, understand, and control their citizens far more effectively than ever before, AI offers a plausible way for big, economically advanced countries to make their citizens rich while maintaining control over them—the first since the end of the Cold War. That may help fuel and shape renewed international competition between types of political regimes that are all becoming more “digital.” Just as competition between liberal democratic, fascist, and communist social systems defined much of the twentieth century, how may the struggle between digital liberal democracy and digital authoritarianism define and shape the twenty-first?
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

The Options for Getting to Political Reconciliation in Afghanistan

In August of 2018, United States Central Command asked the Strategic Multilayer Assessment Reachback team, How can the United States best increase the resolve and capability of regional actors to get to political reconciliation in Afghanistan? This report highlights the results of NSI’s Interest-Resolve-Capability (I-R-C)™ analysis of Afghanistan stakeholder dynamics.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Narratives Before & After the 2018 North Korea- United States Summit: An Analysis of Chinese and Russian News Media Coverage of Events on the Korean Peninsula

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) does not currently constitute a strategic threat via inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to German-Speaking and East Central Europe (GS-ECE), to the States of the European Union (EU), or to non-EU European States. Proven and potential cyber threats do exist, however, as does the proven threat of traditional espionage.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Assessment of Possible Reactions in German-Speaking and East Central Europe and the European Union (GS-ECE/EU) to Possible Strategic Outcomes in U.S.-DPRK Relations

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) does not currently constitute a strategic threat via inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to German-Speaking and East Central Europe (GS-ECE), to the States of the European Union (EU), or to non-EU European States. Proven and potential cyber threats do exist, however, as does the proven threat of traditional espionage.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Russia)

SMA Speaker Series

Outer Space in the Media Space: How Russian and Chinese News Media Present the Commercialization and Militarization of the Space Domain

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University) as part of its SMA Contested Space Operations: Space Defense, Deterrence, and Warfighting (Space) Speaker Series.
May 9, 2018
Dr. Randy Kluver, Dr. Skye Cooley, and Dr. Ethan Stokes
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SMA Speaker Series

Using the New Character of Warfare to Dramatically Enhance Baltic Defense

Speakers: Dr. T. X. Hammes (Institute for National Strategic Studies)with Guest Host Dr. Nicholas Wright (Intelligent Biology)
July 16, 2025
‍Dr. T. X. Hammes
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Nuclear Strategy after the Cold War

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Kristin Ven Bruusgaard (Center for International Security and Cooperation [CISAC] at Stanford University) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. Ms. Ven Bruusgaard began the session by providing reasons why studying Russian nuclear strategy is important. She introduced the four iterations of Russian declaratory nuclear strategy since the end of the Cold War (occurring in 1993, 2000, 2010, and 2014), identifying their major features and changes across versions.
April 17, 2018
Kristin Ven Bruusgaard
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SMA Speaker Series

US-Russia Relations in an Era of Strategic Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Donald N. Jensen (Director of Russia and Strategic Stability, United States Institute of Peace [USIP]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
December 1, 2021
Jensen, D. (USIP)
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SMA Speaker Series

Back to the Future: Trajectories, Simulations and Alternative Futures of Great Power Competition

The US and China have been locked in a great power competition (GPC) that will decide who has more political influence among both developing and developed countries.
July 12, 2023
Dr. Mark Abdollahian
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence Among Three to Twelve Nuclear Powers: Fundamental Instability and Mitigation Strategy

The fundamental instability of bilateral nuclear deterrence (Albert Wohlstetter’s “delicate balance of terror”) is mitigated, in part, by each adversary deploying and maintaining weapons systems that are capable of guaranteeing a second-strike after an adversary has launched a first-strike.
June 27, 2024
Dr. Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Shape of the Future Operating Environment: How Our Adversaries Have Learned to Stop Worrying and Ignore the Bomb

In July of this year, at the request of USSTRATCOM, SMA initiated an effort to address eight questions regarding the implications of the increasing numbers, and expanding capabilities, of US nuclear adversaries.
November 11, 2021
Bragg, B
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resistance to Russian Disinformation: Lessons for Future Conflict

A key element of Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion has been its ability to counter Russian disinformation. In their recent report for RAND, Dr. Helmus and Dr. Holynska discuss Ukraine’s approach to combating disinformation and the lessons that the United States and NATO can draw from this effort.
September 19, 2024
Todd Helmus and Khrystyna Holynska
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SMA Speaker Series

The Origins of the War in Ukraine

Russia seeks to dominate both Ukraine’s territory and its political future. Dr. Kimmage analyzed Russia’s motivations for initiating the war, as well as the failures of the United States, Europe, and Ukraine in deterring the invasion.
October 14, 2024
‍Michael Kimmage
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SMA Speaker Series

Future Scenarios for Sino-Russian Military Cooperation Possibilities, Limitations, and Consequences

The level of integration and cooperation between China and Russia in the event of a significant military conflict is often speculated upon, particularly given the rising political tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea.
September 12, 2024
Mark Cozad, Cortez A. Cooper III, and David Woodworth
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SMA Speaker Series

Statelet of Survivors: The Making of a Semi-Autonomous Region in Northeast Syria: US Options in the New Phase of the Syrian Conflict

The political overtures made by Turkish President Erdogan to normalize relations with the Assad regime are reshaping the dynamics of the Syrian civil war.
August 28, 2024
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Cyber Power Base: From Cybercriminals to Private Contractors

Justin Sherman spoke to the SMA audience about Russia’s cyber power base—not just the state and intelligence actors, but also the private contractors and private sector companies that play an important role in Russia’s cyber power.
August 7, 2024
Justin Sherman
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SMA Speaker Series

Critical Minerals Geopolitics and Security

Minerals are crucial components of advanced weapons systems, playing a pivotal role in military capability and power projection. They are increasingly integrated into new attack platforms, including Virginia-class attack submarines and long-range missiles.
May 16, 2024
Morgan Bazilian and Gregory Wischer
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SMA Speaker Series

Some of the Analysis Behind RAND’s “Inflection Point” Report

Modern threats from developed nations like China are beginning to exceed US capabilities, partly because the US military was predominantly focused on regional adversaries such as Iraq during Desert Storm. Mr. Ochmanek categorized the US approach to military power projection during this period as expeditionary and sequential.
May 22, 2024
David Ochmanek
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SMA Speaker Series

The Qualities that Make Nations Competitive: Chinese and Russian Views

A significant portion of the current literature exploring Great Power Competition (GPC) among the United States, China, and Russia predominantly reflects a Western perspective.
April 23, 2024
Timothy R. Heath, Michael J. Mazarr, and Clint Reach
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SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.
April 11, 2024
Christine Abely
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of US-Russian Relations

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future.
February 23, 2024
Thomas Graham
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SMA Speaker Series

Deterrence and Space Warfare

The strategy of space warfare is a subset of general warfare strategy; therefore, the ideas of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion have applicability in the space domain.
January 4, 2024
Dr. John Klein
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SMA Speaker Series

Hybrid Warfare: Guile Born Out of Weakness

Russia’s historical strategy to protect its sovereign borders and security environment has been to act aggressively with its military, attempting to constantly expand its borders.
January 11, 2024
Curtis Fox
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SMA Speaker Series

Alternative Ukrainian Future Trajectories: Implications for Russia and the West

Dr. Graeme Herd at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies is conducting multiple workshops and seminars, creating predicted pathways for war in Ukraine, using open-source materials. Dr. Herd identified five potential future pathways for the war in Ukraine, being: Ukrainian victory, Russian victory, protracted conflict, frozen conflict, and negotiated peace.
June 22, 2023
‍Dr. Graeme P. Herd
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SMA Speaker Series

Freedom in the World 2023: Marking 50 Years in the Struggle for Democracy

For fifty years, Freedom House has published its assessment of the state of democracy around the world. Freedom House categorizes countries and territories in to three groups based off a point system: 1) free, 2) partly free, and 3) not free. Dr. Gorokhovskaia mentioned that 2022 saw a continuation of a 17-year democratic slide; however, there were several bright spots for democracy around the world. For instance, during 2022 only one more country that became less democratic (35) than countries became more democratic (34). In comparison, during 2021, 35 more countries became more autocratic (60) than countries that became more democratic (25). Several factors that lessened the global strength of democracies during 2022 included a rash of military coups. For example, Burkina Faso experienced several military coups itself that resulted in the suspension of its constitution. Burkina Faso had the largest point decrease of 23-points during 2022. Columbia experienced the largest growth in democratic strength, increasing by 6 points. Columbia’s increase was due to more fair and competitive political elections than it had experienced in recent years. Individual country reports go into greater detail.
September 20, 2023
Yana Gorokhovskaia (Freedom House)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Uncrewed Systems in Ukraine

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is having a significant impact on the war in Ukraine, changing how Russia and Ukraine are actively fighting and carrying out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Mr. Bendett summarized his latest Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) report, the third CNA report in a series examining Russia’s and Ukraine’s use of UAVs. He commented that the reports focus on the use of UAVs because they are the most prevalent unmanned vehicles being used in the war. Unmanned ground and water vehicles are being used, although less frequently. This is not the first time Russia has used UAVs. During the Syrian Civil War, Russia used UAVs in support of Assad’s authoritarian regime. However, the Syrian Civil War and the war in Ukraine are very different. Ukraine’s Armed Forces have significantly more capabilities and technologies than the Syrian rebels.
July 6, 2023
Mr. Samuel Bendett (Center for Naval Analyses)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Role in Global Nuclear Supply Chains

Ms. Dolzikova discussed how Russia’s civil nuclear sector has largely evaded the sanctions placed on the rest of the Russian economy since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. During her presentation she outlined the drivers of the global dependency on Russia’s civil nuclear supplies, highlighting the challenges and potential approaches to diversification. For more information on this topic, you can read Ms. Dolzikova’s article Catch-235: Western Dependence on Russian Nuclear Supplies is Hard to Shake.
September 12, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Safety and Security of Nuclear Installations in Ukraine and Implications for Future Conflicts

The war in Ukraine is raising questions about the security of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants and the safety of civilians who are in their proximity. Military and civilian leaders in other countries that possess nuclear power plants are examining how litigation could protect their own facilities during future conflicts. Ms. Dolzikova stated that this discussion has intensified since Russia occupied the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) during the early stages of its invasion of Ukraine. The ZNPP is still under Russian occupation, forcing collaboration between Ukrainian and Russian nuclear scientists, Ukrainian workers at ZNPP, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the Russian occupiers to ensure the plant’s safety and security. Since Russia’s take-over, all six ZNPP nuclear reactors have been shut down. One reactor is in a “hot shutdown,” allowing it to produce steam. Russian nuclear scientists are insisting that it is necessary for this reactor to produce steam for the safety of the power plant, but Ukrainian scientists claim that a “hot shutdown” is an unnecessary hazard. They claim that keeping the reactor in this state is reducing the time window that workers would have to divert a catastrophe during a systems failure.
August 1, 2023
Ms. Darya Dolzikova (RUSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Ukrainian Army is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how cooperation between a country’s military and prominent social media influencers can be a useful tool for harnessing narrative control relating to conflicts. Dr. Helmus argued that Ukraine has been out-performing Russia in its ability to create and disseminate effective narratives surrounding the ongoing war. The success of Ukraine’s information operations is in part due to its tactic of leveraging civilian and military influencers who regularly post on social media. These influencers use their platform to share posts that highlight the loss of innocent life during Russian attacks, the resilience of Ukraine’s civilian population, and the success of Ukrainian military operations. These information operations come at virtually no cost to Ukraine because most creators are posting videos on their own volition. Dr. Helmus commented that while researchers have not been able to empirically confirm the positive effects of these social media operations, Ukrainian officials have emphasized their importance on the battlefield. While Ukraine has recently been using its media to great effect, the practice of leveraging influencers on social media is a well-used marketing strategy.
June 6, 2023
Dr. Todd Helmus (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Cold Peace: Avoiding the New Cold War

US and China are considered by many analysts and scholars to be in a second Cold War. Dr. Doyle specified that there are four types of political relationships—hot war, cold war, cold peace, and warm peace. If countries are in a hot war, then they are engaging in open military conflict. If they are in a warm peace, then they have mutual respect for each other and participate in peaceful competition that allows for frequent bilateral cooperation. An example of two actors who are currently in warm peace are the US and EU. Dr. Boyle argued that the US and China should work towards ending their current cold war and entering a stage of cold peace. This cold peace would still lack bilateral US-China cooperation and shared legitimacy, but it would involve no subversive activities, such as industrial espionage.
May 31, 2023
Dr. Michael Doyle (Columbia University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Exploring A Year Of Russian Television News’ Propaganda Landscape Through AI: From Speech & Visual Analysis To ChatGPT

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.The GDELT Project provides researchers with many tools for analyzing public discourse through compiling large open-source databases and utilizing text-based analysis. This data is pulled from media sources across dozens of countries and in hundreds of languages. The GDELT Project is working to create the tools to accurately collect data from television news broadcasts and other forms of video, such as Tik Tok and Instagram. Current GDELT tools can identify images, objects, logos, and even some faces in video footage. However, these tools cannot identify the context in which these items are being shown or identify a subject’s emotions. This contextual information gives researchers a valuable insight into the sender’s intent.
March 28, 2023
Dr. Kalev Hannes Leetaru (The GDELT Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

US Military Assistance to Ukraine in 2022: Impact Assessment

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Egle E. Murauskaite (University of Maryland, ICONS) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. The US has given military support to Ukraine as it defends against a Russian invasion. This support includes arms transfers, training for soldiers, and intelligence sharing during information operations. The US has been able to escalate its military support for Ukraine while also avoiding a direct military response from Russia. Also, the assumption that US arms transfers would increase arms smuggling in the region has been proven false. Instead, human trafficking has increased; however, this is a common war-time phenomenon. The aid that US and allies gave to Ukraine before the war has significantly influenced the conflict’s current state. This aid included peace-time military training of troops from 2014-2020.
March 15, 2023
Murauskaite, E. (University of Maryland, ICONS)
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SMA Speaker Series

Sino-Russian Relations: Articulating a World Order

China and Russia are frequently considered to have an alliance against the West; however, their actual relationship is one of convenience. China and Russia’s friendship has only been in place for a short time. Historically, the two countries have been rivals, disputing over territories and boundaries. The intensity of these disputes has weakened since the mid-1990s, however, due to the nations’ new political relationship. Their present-day partnership is based on the desire for a multi-polar world that weakens the US’ status as a superpower. However, their vision differs on how this multi-polar world order is comprised. The difference between China’s and Russia’s world view is the role that each other’s political rivals, other than the US, would play.
March 1, 2023
Garcia, Z. (Associate Professor of Security Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College); Modlin, K. (Instructor, Western Kentucky University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's Open-source Code and Private-sector Cybersecurity Ecosystem

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Justin Sherman (Founder & CEO, Global Cyber Strategies) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.Russia and China are using their private sectors to strengthen their cyber defensive and offensive capabilities. Russian and Chinese companies have purposely uploaded flawed code to international communication companies’ open-source coding.. For example, Huawei, China’s large information technology company, has been the largest contributor to Linux code; however, it has uploaded 30 lines of code that exhibit suspicious behavior. Pushwoosh, a company based out of Russia, pretended to be an American company and gained access to the US Army’s security software, and wrote code for its cyber defense. While Russia does not have a telecommunications company the size as Huawei, the Kremlin is very active with its online coding and hacking communities. It is relying on private industry to bolster its defensive and offensive cyber capabilities.
February 22, 2023
Sherman, J. (Founder & CEO, Global Cyber Strategies)
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SMA Speaker Series

When Democracy and Security Interests Clash: Hard Choices for US Policymakers

The US government’s objectives of protecting its security interests and promoting democratic ideals abroad sometimes coincide (e.g., Ukraine), while at other times, they appear at odds. The US spends billions of dollars per year on foreign aid to support democratic values and human rights efforts. However, it also gives large amounts of aid and support to countries that have weakening democracies, human rights issues, or full autocracies in the name of national and regional security. The US has encountered this dilemma since the Cold War and the Reagan administration, Mr. Press stated. During this time, the US viewed supporting democratic values as pivotal while also partnering with oppressive autocracies like Chile to combat the USSR. The three major drivers of this dilemma in recent years, according to Mr. Press, include a) the US’s interest in maintaining stability in the MENA region, b) countering violent extremist organizations, and c) managing strategic competition with China.
February 1, 2023
Carothers, T. (Co-director, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace); Press, B. (Non-resident Research Analyst, Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

Slaughtering Sacred Cows? German Energy Security, Nuclear Sharing, and the War in Ukraine

After the Cold War, despite many warning symbols from Russia (e.g., President Vladimir Putin’s election in 1999, the war against Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea in 2014), Germany and the rest of Europe entered a state of complacency regarding a potential Russian threat to Western security, energy, and hard power. Dr. Dorondo explained that successive German chancellors adopted a rosy vision of the nation’s future—a carbon-neutral Germany within a peaceful Europe. In the process, the nuclear power generation sector of Germany’s economy would be phased out, coal would no longer be used, and natural gas production would contribute to a new socioeconomic vision of the future. In part due to the lack of a perceived threat from Russia, German limited its military spending.
November 21, 2022
Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia's New Approach to Influence During the Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine

Russia’s information operations (IO) are playing a pivotal role in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Vartonova stated that not all narratives that Russia circulates in the information environment (IE) should be called disinformation because Russia uses truthful information in its IO campaigns as well. For example, Russian media highlighted that the Kremlin has given NATO an offer to end the war in Ukraine. However, it knew that NATO would most likely not accept its treaty. A more appropriate term for this kind of IO is adverse rhetoric. Most of Russian IO is designed for an international audience; however, it had to also convince its domestic audience that it should invade Ukraine. Russia used narratives such as the de-Nazification and de-militarization of Ukraine—among others—to keep the Russian people engaged. Russia has continually changed the dominant Ukraine narrativeto keep the support of the Russian population. Some of these changing narratives include a claim that Ukraine is creating biological weapons, targeting ethnic Slavs.
November 15, 2022
Vartanova, O. (US Marine Corps Information Operations Center (MCIOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 1 of 2)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Kacper Gradon (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)), Dr. Layla M. Hashemi (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University), Ms. Sarah Meo (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University), and Dr. Michael Vlahos (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy) as part of its SMA NIU Panel Discussion.
October 5, 2022
Gradon, K. (Associate Professor, Department of Cybersecurity, Faculty of Electronics and Information Technology, Warsaw University of Technology (Poland)); Hashemi, L. (Researcher & Data Analyst, Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC), George Mason University); Meo, S. (PhD Candidate, Public Policy, Schar School of Policy of Government, George Mason University); Vlahos, M. (Senior Fellow, The Institute for Peace and Diplomacy)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Resilience in the Context of Conflict Dynamics and International Public Opinion

Russia has lost the strategic initiative in its invasion of Ukraine, allowing for Ukrainian forces to slowly retake occupied territory. Ukraine will likely be able to retake the Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, despite Russia’s recent mobilization of soldiers, argued Dr. Kagan. To increase Russian military forces, Putin will likely annex occupied territory and conscript its citizens. The failure of Russian armed forces is putting stress on Putin’s regime, prompting him to make veiled nuclear threats. However, it is unlikely that Russia will use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Putin’s nuclear threats are most likely to place pressure on the West. It is also likely that only a small percent of the crimes against humanity committed by the Russian soldiers in occupied territory are known. These crimes will likely continue to surface as Ukraine reclaims more territory.
September 28, 2022
Polyak, M. (President, Ipsos, North America Analytics); Kagan, F. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Critical Threats Project, American Enterprise Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Revolution in Intelligence Affairs

Decision makers and military strategists expect artificial intelligence (AI) to change how war is fought. AI is a blanket term for several technologies and their capabilities. Many people believe AI’s defining feature is its level of autonomy; however, AI’s main function is actually as a decision-making tool.
August 16, 2022
Jonsson, O. (Director, Phronesis Analysis; Researcher, Swedish Defence University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Long Shadows: Deterrence in a Multipolar Nuclear Age

Dr. Pettyjohn explained that nuclear deterrence is frequently examined in the context of a bilateral competition rather than a multipolar competition between three or more nuclear capable states.
July 26, 2022
Pettyjohn, S. (Senior Fellow & Director of the Defense Program, Center for a New American Security [CNAS])
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukrainian Lessons

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was preceded by nearly a decade of Russian propaganda, claiming that Ukraine is Russian and that Ukraine is run by Nazis, and overall, perpetuating the dehumanization of Ukrainians. Journalists—especially Ukraine’s war-time journalists—are playing a crucial role in combating these Russian narratives and setting the groundwork for future legal trials relating to war crimes and sanctions.
July 14, 2022
Pomerantsev, P. (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University); Butusov, Y. (Chief Editor, Censor.NET); Rybak, V. (Analyst & Project Coordinator, Internews Ukraine); Makaruk, M. (Speaker of the International Volunteer Intelligence Community, InformNapalm)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real Way to Succeed in a Rivalry: The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness

A country’s societal dynamism is directly linked to its international competitiveness, according to Dr. Mazarr. There are seven societal characteristics related to a country’s international competitiveness: national ambition and will, unified national identity, shared opportunity, activity, effective government institutions, learning and adapting mentally, and diversity and pluralism.
July 6, 2022
Michael Mazarr
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukraine, Connectivity, and the Future of War

The war in Ukraine is one of the most visible conflicts in history, partly because of the prevalence of smartphones in Ukraine (61%). Moreover, 85% of Ukrainians possess an active mobile-broadband subscription, allowing them to share images and photos of the war instantaneously.
June 29, 2020
Matthew Ford and Andrew Hoskins
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SMA Speaker Series

The Perfect Imbalance of the Sino-Russian Relationship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova (Head of the Political Science Doctoral Programme & Director of the China Studies Centre, Riga Stradins University, Latvia) as part of its SMA EUCOM / INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
June 7, 2022
Una Aleksandra Bērziņa-Čerenkova
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SMA Speaker Series

How America Can Seize Its Great-Power Opportunity

Past US foreign security policies primarily focused on adversaries’ capabilities and objectives rather than its own ability to project its desired messages and worldview.
May 4, 2022
Mr. Ali Wyne
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SMA Speaker Series

The Future of European Security

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. James Goldgeier (Visiting Scholar, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University; Visiting Fellow, The Brookings Institution; & Professor of International Relations, School of International Service, American University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
April 21, 2022
Dr. James Goldgeier
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SMA Speaker Series

Killer Drones: Disruption Today, Destruction Tomorrow... The Future Is Now...

Commercial drones—which are permitted by governments for civilian use in many countries—are currently being used for military purposes in Ukraine.
April 7, 2022
Bill Edwards
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SMA Speaker Series

The Surprisingly Unsurprising Russo-Ukraine War: Learning and Teaching the Right Lessons for Integrated Deterrence

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Spencer Meredith (National Defense University), Dr. Peter Eltsov (National Defense University), Prof. Carolyne Davidson (National Defense University), and Maj. Gen. Patrick B. Roberson (Commander and Commandant, US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School, Fort Bragg) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
April 8, 2022
Dr. Spencer Meredith, Dr. Peter Eltsov, and Professor Carolyne Davidson
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SMA Speaker Series

How Thick or Thin Is Russian Support for Putin’s War Against Ukraine?—Political Perspectives of Russian Elites and Mass Publics Before the Invasion: An Analysis of Survey Data (2020-2021)

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Sherlock (Professor of Political Science, United States Military Academy, West Point) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 23, 2022
Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Information Operations and War in Ukraine—What Can We Expect and Do?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Rid (Professor of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University) and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev (Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 17, 2022
Dr. Thomas Rid and Mr. Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Special Forces in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jack Watling (Research Fellow, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 16, 2022
Dr. Jack Watling
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SMA Speaker Series

Countering Russia Through Irregular Warfare: Cost Imposition in Ukraine and Beyond

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Spencer Meredith (Professor of National Security Strategy, National Defense University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
March 9, 2022
Dr. Spencer Meredith
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SMA Speaker Series

Stabilizing Great Power Rivalries

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) and Dr. Samuel Charap (RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM/INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
March 3, 2022
Dr. Michael Mazarr and Dr. Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia’s Ambitions in the Arctic Towards 2035

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Pär Gustafsson (Swedish Defence Research Agency [FOI]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 20, 2022
Dr. Pär Gustafsson
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SMA Speaker Series

Where Does France Stand In the Upheaval of the World?

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Tsiporah Fried (Senior Advisor to the Vice Chairman of the French Joint Chiefs of Staff) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 24, 2022
Tsiporah Fried
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Approaches to Strategic Deterrence and Tactical Coercion

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 24, 2022
Samuel Charap
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SMA Speaker Series

Poland's New Model Army

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Jacek Bartosiak (Founder and Owner, Strategy & Future; Senior Analyst, Geopolitical Futures) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
February 4, 2022
Jacek Bartosiak
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SMA Speaker Series

Integrating Deterrence Across the Gray—Making It More Than Words

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Robert Jones (USSOCOM), LTC Catherine Crombe (USSOCOM SOCCENT), and LTC Steven Ferenzi (USSOCOM SOCCENT) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
December 8, 2021
Lt. Col. Katie Crombe, Lt.Col. Steve Ferenzi, and Mr. Robert C. Jones
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SMA Speaker Series

The Real and Present Risk of Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons on the Battlefield

Russia’s and China’s status as near-peer nuclear competitors with the US is changing the reality of what a military conflict would look like.
January 12, 2022
Dr. Adam Lowther
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Grand Strategy: Reality and Rhetoric

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Samuel Charap (Senior Political Scientist, RAND) and Ms. Dara Massicot (Senior Policy Researcher, RAND), as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
October 15, 2021
Dr. Samuel Charap and Dara Massicot
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SMA Speaker Series

Compendium of Recommendations for Countering Russian and Other State-Sponsored Propaganda

Countering Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns is a complex task which involves many different policy changes from both government and private actors.
August 31, 2021
Todd C. Helmus
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SMA Speaker Series

Perspectives and Insights From the Moscow Security Conference and Associated Local Visits

SMA hosted a speaker session with BG (Ret) Peter Zwack (Global Fellow, The Wilson Center & Adjunct Fellow, Salve Regina University) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
August 12, 2021
Brigadier General Peter B Zwack (Ret.)
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SMA Speaker Series

Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy in Russia

SMA hosted a speaker session with Mr. Samuel Bendett (Advisor, Russia Studies Program, CNA & Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security [CNAS]) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
August 24, 2021
Samuel Bendett
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Health Diplomacy in the Time of COVID-19

SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Erik Herron (Eberly Family Distinguished Professor of Political Science, West Virginia University) with Dr. Cynthia J. Buckley (Professor of Sociology & Faculty Affiliate of the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies and the European Studies Center, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
August 24, 2021
Dr. Erik Herron and Dr. Cynthia J. Buckley
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SMA Speaker Series

Moscow’s Digital Offensive: Building Sovereignty in Cyberspace

Dr. Pallin commented that Russia’s conception of cyber operations is different than most Western countries. The term cyber is rarely found in Russian security documents; instead information space is more frequently used. Its choice of terminology shows Russia’s priority is controlling the information available to its domestic population. This control, which allows Russia to create a sovereign space online, is meant to alleviate the Kremlin’s insecurities. The Roskmnadzor (Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media) was given direct control over Russia’s internet in the case of an existential crisis or war. However, Roskomnadzor had already taken control of Russia’s internet and slowed down Twitter and all addresses containing ‘t.co’ to stop anti-Russian messages from reaching its civilian population.
July 31, 2021
Carolina Vendil Pallin
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Influence Operations (IPb) In 2021: Status and Expectations Through Geopolitical Assessment

Dr. Vartanova emphasized that while Russia is enigmatic and seems erratic in its information operations (IO), its actions can still be predicted. Russia’s practice of flying fighter jets over a US battleship in the Baltic Sea on two separate occasions in 2016 is one such pattern of nonverbal Russian propaganda. Russia’s actions and messages are also filled with symbolism directed at both its domestic audience and foreign audiences, representing Russia as a growing world power. An example of this symbolism is Russia’s decision to name its COVID-19 vaccine Sputnik-V to pay homage to Russia’s launch of the first manned vehicle into space in 1957. The use of this symbolism is ultimately to protect Putin’s regime and maintain the security of Russia’s vast geographical borders using IO, Dr. Vartanova argued. In general, Russia believes that the best way to bolster its defense through IO is a mixture of military action; diplomacy; and influence among civilian communities that portray Russia as a world power, an empire builder, and a protector against Western ideals. Moreover, Russia expands its influence in local communities through influence operations online, national media, and growing ex-patriot communities around the world.
April 14, 2021
Dr. Olga Vartanova
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SMA Speaker Series

Can Democracy Survive in an Age of Information War?

Mr. Pomerantsev began by highlighting a phrase that he believes relates well to Russia’s concept of information: “The most dangerous idea in information war is the idea of information war itself.” This phrase is particularly applicable to Russia because the Kremlin views all communication as a facet of information warfare, according to Mr. Pomerantsev. The belief that all information is used to manipulate contradicts friendly political discourse between state leaders, feeds into conspiracy theorists’ rationale, and forces governments to securitize any form of communication. Furthermore, Russia’s concept of information leads them to view all of history through the lens of an information battlefield, Mr. Pomerantsev explained. This viewpoint was evident even as far back as the collapse of the Soviet Union, when former KGB agents began writing a revisionist form of history claiming that the Soviet Union collapsed as a result of its adoption of Western values, as opposed to political or economic causes. Mr. Pomerantsev concluded his brief set of remarks by emphasizing that the main dilemma facing Western countries is: How do they effectively combat Russia’s disinformation without resorting to the same combative mindset and tactics?
March 30, 2021
Peter Pomerantsev
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SMA Speaker Series

Nord Stream 2: Implications and Outcomes for US-German Relations and the NATO Alliance

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University), Dr. Arnold Dupuy (NATO Science and Technology Organization’s Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163 and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)), Dr. Ion Iftimie (Central European University, Vienna, Austria), Dr. Daniel Nussbaum (NATO Science and Technology Organization’s Systems Analysis and Studies (SAS)-163 and Naval Postgraduate School), and Mr. Paul Michael Wihbey (Georgetown University and Institute on the Geopolitics of Energy), as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series.
March 4, 2021
David R. Dorondo, Arnold Dupuy, Daniel Nussbaum, and Paul Michael Wihbey
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SMA Speaker Series

Disinformation and Political Warfare: Historical and Technological Insights (A Conversation with Thomas Rid)

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Thomas Rid (Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA IIJO Speaker Series.Dr. Rid began by stating that that there is currently a lack of understanding of how historical influence operations have contributed to the evolution of present day countries’ information operations. He argued that scholars cannot fully grasp 21st century cyber operations without understanding intelligence operations from the 20th century. He stated that his research showed that the exposure of information has developed asymmetrical features for the US and its adversaries, including how influence operations are technically carried out, how operators form their strategies, the ethical constraints faced by operators, and the evaluation of a message’s success.
February 11, 2021
Dr. Thomas Rid
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SMA Speaker Series

Analyzing Election Disinformation Efforts by Foreign Actors

Dr. Posard began the speaker session by stating that he and his colleagues examined Russia’s past interference in the 2016 US presidential election in an effort to mitigate the impact that Russian interference could have on the 2020 election. He emphasized that Russia’s ultimate goal in its election interference efforts is not to aid one candidate in winning but rather to paralyze the US election system. Russia aims to achieve this goal by halting political cooperation between legislators, further polarizing the US civilian population, and ultimately leading citizens to not participate in future democratic elections. Dr. Posard stated that while the US has been targeted by a foreign power’s influence campaigns before, Russia’s influence campaign has been the most effective due to its efficient use of technology.Dr. William Marcellino then described the research team’s methodology. According to Dr. Marcellino, the team documented more than two million Twitter conversations from 630 unique accounts to create an overlay of the communication network that makes up the information environment (IE). The team created its model of the IE by first using a community detection algorithm and then giving the data to human analysts. Dr. Marcellino stated that the research team was able to identify which organizations communicate with each other and which groups act as communication hubs.
February 12, 2021
Todd C. Helmus, William Marcellino, and Marek N. Posard‍
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Military Robotics and Artificial Intelligence Developments: An Assessment

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Mr. Samuel Bendett (CNA) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.Mr. Bendett began his presentation by recognizing that new threats require new approaches to technological, intellectual, and human potential. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD), particularly over the last decade, has made major strides in developing new research and development, testing, and evaluation (RDT&E) initiatives. According to Mr. Bendett, Russian MOD leadership helped ensure that the Russian army made a technological breakthrough related to the adoption of “robotic complexes” and intensified artificial intelligence research, for instance.
January 4, 2020
Samuel Bendett
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Cyber Strategies and Information Operations: From Cuba to Crimea and Beyond

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series, featuring Dr. Katya Drozdova (Seattle Pacific University).Dr. Drozdova began her presentation by emphasizing the need to understand the complexity of Russia, particularly when assessing its cyber and information operations. Characteristically, these operations serve Russia’s broader interests and are often integrated with other means to broaden national power, military strength, and covert operations. Dr. Drozdova used the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example of a Russian information operation, as the Soviets used strategic communication with the US in an attempt to force the US to remove its nuclear weapons from Turkey. Another notable example is Crimea, where Russia is currently deploying significant elements of a cyber campaign that are tightly interweaved with special operations, election politics, etc.
October 21, 2020
KATYA DROZDOVA
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SMA Speaker Series

Spoiler Alert: Managing the Threat of the Islamic State During Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker series with Dr. Craig Whiteside (US Naval War College) and Dr. Haroro Ingram (George Washington University) as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Whiteside began by discussing the global influence and resilience of the Islamic State, highlighting its continued presence despite the death of its physical caliphate. He also stated that in the age of great power competition between the US, China, and Russia, many scholars think small ideological competitors will no longer be significant. However, Dr. Whiteside argued that this has not been the case thus far. He explained that the security environment is not bipolar, and the Islamic State is continuing to redefine and shape local conflicts to serve its larger goals. Furthermore, he claimed that the Islamic State will weaponize a change in the international global order, if it is altered from the way we know it today. Dr. Whiteside continued by describing the Islamic State as a transnational enterprise and discussing the global network that stems from this empire. He emphasized that the Islamic State has learned to operate this global enterprise quite effectively over time; it has become well-organized, well-financed, and technologically savvy. However, in contrast, Dr. Whiteside identified two strategic dilemmas that the Islamic State faces. These include itslack of a master plan and most of its operations’ dependency on waiting for the right opportunity to strike. To conclude his remarks, Dr. Whiteside discussed the importance of understanding insurgency doctrine and how it influences the Islamic State’s strategy on three pillars: continual stabs, cumulative attrition, and consolidation/empowerment. Dr. Ingram continued the speaker session by discussing how the Islamic State’s simple strategic principles, operational approaches, and ideological concepts have evolved over time, both in concept and in practice. He argued that understanding these things is the best way to project assessments of the Islamic State into the future and that observing its history helps one develop nuanced understandings of its ideology that may aid these assessments. Dr. Ingram then provided three main ideas to take away from the presentation. He first argued that great power competition matters to the Islamic State, based on its rhetoric, how it thinks of global issues, and how it pursues its goals. Secondly, he suggested that anti-Islamic State efforts are complementary with great power competition when considering global partnerships and allied support. To conclude, Dr. Ingram argued that American leadership matters on the global stage with regards to maintaining pressure on the Islamic State and building global partnerships to counter its influence.
August 27, 2020
Craig A. Whiteside, Ph.D. and Dr. Haroro J. Ingram
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SMA Speaker Series

Russia and the Expiration of the UN Arms Embargo on Iran

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Mark Katz (George Mason University) as part of its SMA CENTCOM/EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Katz discussed UN Security Council Resolution 2231 (UNSCR 2231) in detail, which was adopted in support of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (i.e., the Iranian Nuclear Accord of 2015). This resolution requires approval for certain types of weapons to be sold to Iran and is considered to be an embargo. This provision is dated to expire in October 2020, and Russia has expressed its intent to sell weapons to Iran immediately after. The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 but is now introducing a Security Council resolution extending this arms embargo indefinitely on the grounds that the US is an original JCPOA signatory. Dr. Katz explained that if this resolution passes, all pre-2015 sanctions on Iran will return, which is unpopular amongst Russia and China. He argued that Russia is less concerned with selling weapons to Iran, but it is motivated to isolate the US from Europe and its Middle Eastern allies. Dr. Katz then explained that the results of the upcoming US presidential election may impact Russian behavior. If President Trump is reelected, Russia will likely exchange an extension of the JCPOA arms embargo for something valuable to them, such as an extension of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) due to expire in early 2021. However, if Biden is elected, Moscow may anticipate a US renewal of New START and rejoining of the JCPOA, giving Russia motivation to sell weapons to Iran before Biden is sworn in. Dr. Katz elaborated that Russia and Iran are both currently under US sanctions, so there is “not much to lose” if Russia chooses to sell and deliver weapons to Iran. On the other hand, a reason Russia may delay its selling of weapons to Iran relates to its desire to maintain good relations with itsother Middle Eastern allies, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran’s inability to pay for weapons coupled with these countries’ potential agreement of compensation towards Russia could decide which countries Russia chooses to sell to. Finally, Dr. Katz claimed that Russia may exploit divisions between the US and its other allies who continue to support the JCPOA to keep the US from doing the same for countries allied with Russia, adding that if the US were to point out Russia’s unreliability as an ally, smaller Middle Eastern countries may be more willing to support US policies instead.
August 17, 2020
Dr. Mark Katz
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SMA Speaker Series

A New World Order?: The West, China, and Russia Post-COVID

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Raffaello Pantucci (RUSI) and Mr. Keir Giles (Chatham House) as part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Mr. Giles first discussed how Russia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the way it perceives the state of its internal affairs indicates that it wants to emerge from the global pandemic as a major player in a less “imbalanced world.” During this crisis, the world has perceived Russia as being relatively quiet; meanwhile, according to Mr. Giles, its disinformation campaign and preparations to interfere in US politics have not ceased behind the scenes. Mr. Giles stated that at the beginning of the pandemic, Russia tried to take advantage of the Western world’s weakness by undermining sanctions and attempting to reach out to other European countries under a false guise of help and alliance. These attempts at soft power failed because they were not executed well. He then asserted that Russia has not experienced the same scale of domestic economic and social failure as much of the rest of the world because public perception in Russia has not changed much since before COVID; Russian citizens’ confidence in the country’s health care system and government was already low. Mr. Giles added that the main challenges that Russia currently faces are the state of its economy, its older demography, and management of its relationship with China. Since Russia did not seize the opportunity to reform its economy and reduce its dependence on energy and raw materials pre-COVID, it remains uncompetitive on a global stage. Furthermore, Russia’s demographic makeup has remained uneven since the fall of the Soviet Union. Mr. Giles claimed that Russia’s denial that these problems exist and its fear of causing social upheaval by addressing them is irresponsible and not realistic. Regardless, he argued that Russia will emerge from the global pandemic opportunistic and ready to take advantage of a world recovering from COVID.
July 31, 2020
Keir Giles
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SMA Speaker Series

Gaming Gray Zone Tactics: Design Considerations for a Structured Strategic Game

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn (RAND) and Ms. Becca Wasser (RAND) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Pettyjohn first stated that the gray zone is “more usefully conceptualized as a tactic rather than a phase in conflict.” This is in part because it is difficult to identify which actions fall into one phase versus another as Russia, for example, takes gray zone actions across the spectrum. She explained that framing the gray zone as a tactic can help NATO and the West develop more appropriate responses to particular events. There are different types of gray zone tactics, each of which require different responses. To address this issue, Dr. Pettyjohn and Ms. Wasser created a framework to distinguish some of Russia’s gray zone tactics from one another. Two distinct variables are important for distinguishing these tactics: violent versus non-violent intervention, and diffused versus focused targets. Everyday, non-violent tactics are employed to weaken the West and increase Russian influence, but it is unclear how or whether they will work. Diffuse, violent tactics implicitly involve the threat of violence and include Russian efforts to form ties with criminal and paramilitary organizations. Targeted, non-violent tactics leverage the results of “everyday” actions and are employed to achieve a specific near-term goals. Finally, aggressive and directed short-term tactics have a specific objective and involve the threat or actual use of force. Dr. Pettyjohn then stated that Russia’s ability to achieve its objectives through gray zone tactics is largely dependent on the vulnerability of the target country. This vulnerability can be indicated by state fragility and polarization. Next, Ms. Wasser advised that NATO compel, not deter, Russia to stop engaging in “everyday” gray zone tactics. NATO retaliatory threats against non-violent gray zone tactics lack credibility, however, NATO often cannot come to a decision about what constitutes a certain threshold for response or what that response would be. The attribution of gray zone tactics also isn’t sufficient enough to change Russian behavior, and doing so imposes costs on the West. Ms. Wasser advised that NATO improves the resiliency of target nations, which will reduce their vulnerability to Russian gray zone tactics. NATO can also impede Russian violent gray zone tactics through deterrence by denial and Russian non-violent gray zone tactics through supporting civilian organizations, which are best positioned to counter non-violent tactics. To conclude, Ms. Wasser stated that the West may be winning the gray zone competition without realizing it. She also stated that NATO should focus on strengthening conventional deterrence, and the West should not ignore or overreact to Russian gray zone tactics; the West should recommend a better course of action instead.
February 25, 2020
Stacie Pettyjohn and Rebecca Wasser
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SMA Speaker Series

Hypersonic Weapons and Strategic Stability

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dean Wilkening (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. During his brief, Dr. Wilkening spoke about hypersonic weapons, crisis instability, and arms race instability. He began by defining ‘crisis instability’ as any action that makes escalation (across the nuclear threshold) harder to control and significantly reduces the effectiveness of a major power’s nuclear deterrent. He then defined ‘arms race instability’ as any action that stimulates an action-reaction arms competition. Dr. Wilkening proceeded to introduce hypersonic vehicles into the discussion. He classified ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, and hypersonic cruise missiles as hypersonic weapons and highlighted two main missions for US hypersonic weapons: 1) penetrate advanced integrated air defense systems and 2) hold time-critical targets at risk. These uses of hypersonic weapons, however, can lead to arms race instability and/or crisis instability. Dr. Wilkening explained that arms race instability (and inadvertent escalation) could result from Russia and/or China modernizing their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), investing in alternatives, or launching on warning or under attack. Crisis instability (and inadvertent escalation) could result from a compressed timeline, leading to less careful decision making, misperceptions, misunderstandings, miscommunication, and/or an increased chance for accidental or unauthorized attacks. Nuclear, warhead, and target ambiguity also play a role in making attack assessment difficult when performing hypersonic maneuvers. Lastly, Dr. Wilkening explained that the choice to use “long-range” or “tactical” weapons could lead to false perceptions of escalation. To conclude, Dr. Wilkening discussed how strategic instability can be avoided and presented a series of questions to ponder regarding to hypersonic weapons and strategic stability, including: 1) Will hypersonic weapons lead to offense dominance in strike warfare?; 2) How should the US balance the demands of conventional warfare with the need to maintain strategic stability with Russia and China?; and 3) How much strategic warning is prudent to assume for conflicts with Russia and China?
January 15, 2020
Dean A. Wilkening
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian "Trojan Horses" and Fellow Travelers: Destabilization in German-speaking and East Central Europe (GS-ECE)

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. David Dorondo (Western Carolina University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Dorondo began by stating that “Trojan Horses” and “fellow travelers” are indeed real. He provided some background information on German-speaking (GS) countries (viz., Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Eastern Belgium, and Northern Italy) and East Central Europe (ECE) (viz., Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland) before discussing the importance of US recognition of Russian and Chinese efforts in GS-ECE. Dr. Dorondo explained that not only is Germany one of the three most important EU member-states from a US standpoint, but it has the largest European economy, is the most powerful non-nuclear state in Europe, and is a critical member of NATO. Thus, the US must be cognizant of Russian and Chinese commonalities with Germany, such as their shared position on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s (JCPOA) retention, as well as Germany’s positive economic relationships with Russia and China. Dr. Dorondo proceeded to discuss the rationale behind his study of possible Russian Trojan Horses, namely 1) Though not necessarily linked to Russian cyber operations targeting European states individually or collectively, Trojan Horses benefit from that element of Russian hybrid warfare; 2) To the extent that they pursue pro-Russian policies, Trojan Horses serve to disrupt, destabilize, and could conceivably disintegrate collective NATO/EU structures; and 3) Whether they are willing Trojan Horses or fellow travelers, these groups tend to benefit from and stoke the current resurgence of left-wing and right-wing populism and/or extremism in Europe. After speaking about several challenges and potential opportunities stemming from his study, Dr. Dorondo identified the Trojan Horses and fellow travelers on which he focused, namely political parties (e.g., Alternative for Germany [AfD], Awakening of German Patriots [AdP], Die Linke [The Left]), economic actors/investment projects (e.g., Nord Stream 2, TurkStream), and prominent individuals (e.g., Gerhard Schröder, Heinz-Christian Strache, Karin Kneissel). To conclude, Dr. Dorondo presented his key takeaways, including 1) A stable, democratic, peaceful Europe that is willing to trade with the US has historically been best for the US; 2) Heretofore, there has never been any fundamental transatlantic divide over alliances, free trade, democratic norms, and the reliability and value of US leadership, though, there now appears to be such a divide; and 3) Memory serves as a motivator among GS-ECE states.
January 7, 2020
David Dorondo
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SMA Speaker Series

A New Sino-Russian High-tech Partnership

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Ms. Elsa Kania (Center for a New American Security (CNAS)) and Mr. Samuel Bendett (CNA) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Mr. Bendett began by stating that China and Russia have not only expanded their military cooperation, but they are also undertaking more extensive technological cooperation in 5G, artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, biotechnology, new media, and the digital economy. He then explained the genesis of this new high-tech partnership. Mr. Bendett stated that as NATO and other western nations distanced themselves from Russia, Russia began looking towards China as a potential partner. Moreover, China appeared to be a logical choice from Russia’s perspective due to its emergence as a key player in the global technological realm and as a focal point for the economic flow of high-tech products. Russia also hoped that it could capitalize on China’s ability to effectively commercialize intellectual products (IP). He then stated that China also benefits greatly from this high-tech partnership. For instance, China recognized that Russian scientific education is among the best in the world; therefore, China began funneling capital into Russian consortiums and universities in return for access to Russia’s highly-skilled scientists and engineers. Ms. Kania proceeded to state that it is evident that China and Russia are seeing interesting convergences in their strengths and weaknesses and that innovation has become one of the key elements in the expansion and strengthening of this relationship. However, from an outsider perspective, it is often difficult to discern which facets of this partnership are real and which are a façade. Moreover, the durability of this relationship is unclear, as this high-tech relationship is still fairly new. Ms. Kania, however, stated that it is likely that Russia and China’s military and high-tech relationships will continue to grow and evolve in the future, which will pose challenges to the US in the scope of great power competition. To conclude, Ms. Kania advised that US decision makers consider 1) greater monitoring and understanding of these nations’ activities in order to avoid being blindsided, 2) identifying and monitoring the ways in which China and Russia could utilize their academic partnerships, 3) working towards gaining a greater situational awareness among allies and partners, and 4) understanding potential targeting of our technologies.
November 15, 2019
Samuel Bendett and Elsa Kania
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SMA Speaker Series

Future of Global Competition & Conflict Conclusion of Effort Panel Discussion (Part 2 of 2)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Belinda Bragg (NSI, Inc.), Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), and Lt Gen (Ret) Dr. Bob Elder (George Mason University). Dr. Cooley first presented Oklahoma State University’s Media Ecology and Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group’s key takeaways from its comparative analysis of Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media. These takeaways included: 1) the future of global competition is a battle for economic security, which is demonstrated through technological innovation, trade agreements, etc.; 2) US actions are leading to a leadership vacuum and growing uncertainty; and 3) informational and cultural strategies are being developed by China, Russia, Iran, and Venezuela in order to to mitigate US/Western influence. Dr. Cooley also presented the MESA Group’s findings specific to Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan media, respectively, as well as a series of potential challenges to US global influence and potential openings for the US to expand and maintain its influence. Next, Lt Gen (Ret) Elder discussed the George Mason University Team’s Timed Influence Net (TIN) model and its application to globally integrated operations planning. He first explained the TIN model’s framework and approach, followed by a discussion of Chinese, Russian, and US strategic goals. He explained that a challenge of globally integrated operations is coordinating global activities and messaging to promote US objectives and disrupt adversary objectives detrimental to the US and its global partners. Based on the TIN model’s results, Lt Gen Elder presented four key planning insights, including how identifying which US and competitor regional objectives are in conflict with one another can help highlight likely areas of competition that could develop into crises and can also be used to develop indicators and warnings for monitoring purposes. Lastly, Dr. Bragg discussed NSI’s global deep dive effort, which maps major power influence and activities. This global deep dive provides a systematic means of exploring China’s and Russia’s activities and interests at various levels of analysis– state, regional, and global. She explained that the deep dive also enables examination of how US, Chinese, and Russian interests and activities intersect to create the potential for cooperation, competition, or conflict. Dr. Bragg summarized the interests and activities data that NSI found for China and Russia, while also highlighting Chinese global activities, Chinese investment in infrastructure and resource extraction, and US and Russian leverage over countries of top importance to China.
November 6, 2019
Bragg, B. (NSI, Inc.); Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Elder, R. (George Mason University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Drivers and Ramifications of US Sanctions Policy Towards Russia

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Ms. Heather Conley (Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During her brief, Ms. Conley discussed the effectiveness of US sanctions, particularly towards Russia. She first emphasized that sanctions are tools, rather than policies; however, recently, the US has used sanctions so frequently that they appear to be in lieu of formal policy. She then presented three questions for US decision makers to consider when thinking about the effectiveness of sanctions: 1) What goal are we trying to achieve?; 2) Does the target state understand what they need to do or what behavior they need to change?
October 18, 2019
Heather A. Conley
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian and Chinese Activities in Central Asia

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Marlene Laruelle (George Washington University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Laruelle first discussed China’s and Russia’s current roles in Central Asia. China became Central Asia’s main economic partner in 2009. China has invested heavily in the region, and few immediate strings have been attached to this funding, though recipients have incurred massive state debts. China is also assisting regional integration overall, despite the largely bilateral nature of its projects. Russia, on the other hand, does not have a strong economic presence in the region, and it is viewed as an unreliable investor among Central Asian states. However, Russia dominates the security realm in Central Asia, from military equipment to educational training. According to Dr. Laruelle, China and Russia are adopting two conflicting strategies: China is promoting regional interactions (i.e., China is trying to bring Central Asian countries to the table and encourage them to cooperate), while Russia is trying to prevent them. Overall, the economic-security balance between China and Russia (respectively) appears to be effective, according to Dr. Laruelle.
September 18, 2019
Prof. Marlene Laruelle
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SMA Speaker Series

Extending Russia: Competing from an Advantageous Ground

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Amb. James Dobbins (RAND), Dr. Raphael Cohen (RAND), and Dr. Howard Shatz (RAND) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The speakers presented their research, which examined “nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the US and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military arenas to stress (i.e., overextend and unbalance) Russia’s economy and armed forces, in addition to the Russian regime’s political standing at home and abroad.” To begin, Amb. Dobbins examined Russia’s anxieties and vulnerabilities in order to determine the most logical way to get Russia to respond to cost-imposing measures.
August 12, 2019
James Dobbins, Raphael Cohen, and Howard J. Shatz
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SMA Speaker Series

Guns to Butter: Economic Concerns and Policy Preferences in Russia

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Maria Snegovaya (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Snegovaya first explained that there is a tradeoff between military and consumer spending: as a country invests more in its military (i.e., produces more guns), it must reduce household consumption (i.e., butter). Moreover, in times of economic stagnation or decline, overall production elevation is often infeasible, and thus a country must prioritize guns over butter. This can then have a significant impact on a country’s domestic public opinion and influence a population’s changing priorities. In her research, Dr. Snegovaya assessed to what extent these dynamics can be found in Russia.
September 12, 2019
Maria Snegovaya
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SMA Speaker Series

FMSO Review of Selected Operational Environment Watch (OE Watch) Articles

“FMSO Review of Selected Operational Environment Watch (OE Watch) Articles”
August 27, 2019
Tom Wilhelm, Charles Bartles, Ray Finch, and Karen Kaya
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SMA Speaker Series

Trends in Online Foreign Influence Efforts

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Professor Jacob Shapiro (Princeton University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. To begin, Professor Shapiro outlined three criteria used to define a foreign influence effort: 1) “foreign” (i.e., an attempt by country A to project content in country B), 2) “deceptive” (i.e., masquerading content as organic to country B), and 3) “political” (i.e., possessing a clearly identifiable objective). He then stated that there have been a total of 53 foreign influence efforts against 24 different countries since 2014, 72% of which were conducted by Russia and most others by Iran. He highlighted that many of these efforts have occurred simultaneously, though many were instigated in support of different political goals.
August 15, 2019
Jacob N. Shapiro
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SMA Speaker Series

Learning Lessons from the Ukraine Conflict

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Robert Angevine (Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)), Mr. Clark Frye (IDA), and Mr. John Warden (IDA) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Angevine first explained that he and his colleagues conducted this research due both to shared topical interest and the lack of sufficient attention being paid to the lessons learned from the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, they argued that other efforts conducted by the Military Services and others to collect lessons from the conflict in Ukraine are notable, but generally cluster in two categories: geo-political and tactical/technical. Consequently, the current research effort was conducted in order to develop lessons in the broad middle ground, focusing on the operational level.
July 18, 2019
Dr. Robert G. Angevine, Clark Frye
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SMA Speaker Series

Hedged Bets or Shared Norms? Sino-Russian Great Power Relations and Public Opinion

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy at West Point) and Col E. John Gregory (US Army) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict Speaker Series. In their research, Col Gregory and Dr. Sherlock examined the prospects for the future of the China-Russia relationship by surveying Chinese and Russian youths. They also aimed to determine whether common opinions are a result of political views or merely hedging behaviors.
July 24, 2019
Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D. and E. John Gregory, PhD, JD
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SMA Speaker Series

Reputational Security and Other New Priorities: Rethinking Soft Power for 2030

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Nicholas Cull (University of Southern California) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. To begin, Dr. Cull highlighted a variety of foreign dangers presented when looking out towards 2030. He first explained that, although Russia is presently an irritant and a disrupter, it is not a long-term threat. Rather, China should be the US’s main concern—it has developed a strategy in pursuit of its long-term goals. In addition, Dr. Cull stated that an Indo/Pakistan War is a very real and long-term foreign danger
June 4, 2019
Nicholas J. Cull
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SMA Speaker Series

How Russian Society Challenges Putin’s Grand Narrative: Perceptions of Domestic Problems and External Threats after Crimea

During his presentation, Dr. Sherlock discussed a study that draws upon Russian public opinion surveys conducted over the past 2-3 years.
May 1, 2019
Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy, West Point)
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SMA Speaker Series

Network Origins of the Global Economy: East vs. West In a Complex Systems Perspective

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Hilton Root (George Mason University) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Root first stated that there is an increased fear of global instability and a diminished confidence in the solutions of the past. Therefore, over the past 10-20 years, experts have started to rethink the grand narrative of political and economic history we have grown to adopt. Furthermore, the rise of the East and its diversion from the West in terms of norms and political organization have also inspired this rethinking. When writing his book, Dr. Root studied the history of regimes and examined five great transitions in history to derive the following conclusion: The global economy is a network of networks.
July 10, 2019
Hilton Root
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SMA Speaker Series

Making Sense of Contemporary Geopolitics: Historical Analogies and Present Constructs

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Ali Wyne (RAND) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Wyne first stated that neither historical analogies, nor present constructs that try to characterize modern geopolitical situations, help us navigate the muddied waters of modern geopolitics and great power competition. He then discussed two analogies that experts often use: the “1930s redux” and the “new Cold War.” Observers generally cite three concerns when invoking the 1930s: 1) democratic stagnation, 2) the prospect of de-globalization, and 3) the return of great-power competition. In the present day though, democracy and globalization are far more entrenched than they were in the 1930s.
June 20, 2019
Ali Wyne
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SMA Speaker Series

Countering Russian Strategic Approaches: Special Operations in Hybrid Warfare

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Spencer Meredith III (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. To begin, Dr. Meredith spoke about Russia’s strategic identity. He stated that Russia is “not a normal state, but a very normal empire” due to its primary goal of gaining the power to control. Russia’s mafia governance, expansionist empire, Messianic mission, and hope to become a “normal” state are also some of Russia’s key identifying features. Dr. Meredith then discussed the challenges that US dominance and NATO expansion present in the eyes of the Kremlin. He stated that Russia believes these rival power centers are trying to expose Russian weakness and inflict serious blows to the Russian strategic identity.
June 14, 2019
Spencer B. Meredith
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SMA Speaker Series

Becoming Peerless in a Peer-to-Peer Competition Environment

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. David Walton (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA NDU Speaker Series. For the conclusion of the SOF Paradigm in Great Power series, Dr. Walton encouraged listeners to think about commonly discussed issues but in new ways. In Dr. Walton’s words, this presentation was designed to provide “a cross-functional and multi-disciplinary approach to strategic and critical thinking,” to build “a foundational understanding of the common denominator issues that strategic leaders face, and to ground “the discussion in practical approaches to building analytical frameworks, evaluating information, and prioritizing solutions.” During the brief, Dr. Walton stated that the US is emerging from a period of strategic atrophy. The US’s competitive military advantage has been eroding, and it faces increased global disorder, reflecting a decline in the long-standing, rules-based international order. He stated that the US must return to a Cold War-type strategy in order to succeed in this era of competition.
June 10, 2019
David Walton
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SMA Speaker Series

Social Cyber-Security Dynamics

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Mellon University) as a part of its SMA DHS Speaker Series. Dr. Carley first defined and characterized social cyber-security. She then stated that social media is about networks and identified three influential groups that interact with users within these networks: 1) echochambers (a toxic group of people connected to each other that share the same ideas), 2) superspreaders (individuals that spread information and alert people of changes), and 3) superfriends (individuals that engage in dialogue to change others’ beliefs and get them to act). Dr. Carley proceeded to discuss the four D’s of traditional information warfare (dismiss, distort, dismay, and distract) and present her key findings regarding technology exploitation, social cognitive manipulation, and more general manipulation.
June 12, 2019
Dr. Kathleen M. Carley
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SMA Speaker Series

Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses

Ms. Robinson focused her presentation on a recent RAND report that examined the practice of political warfare during the Cold War (using George Kennan’s definition as a basis) and similar types of activities today. She first outlined Kennan’s definition of political warfare and then explained how her work applied additional rigor to this definition.
May 15, 2019
Linda Robinson
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SMA Speaker Series

Conceptualizing Strategic Competition—Historical and Theoretical Perspectives

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Mr. Michael Mazarr (RAND) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
May 14, 2019
Mazarr, M. (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Assessing Recent Russia-China-US Security Dialogues

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Richard Weitz (Hudson Institute) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
May 9, 2019
Weitz, R. (Hudson Institute)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Grand Strategy in the 21st Century

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Robert Person (United States Military Academy, West Point) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
May 3, 2019
Person, R. (United States Military Academy, West Point)
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SMA Speaker Series

Systemic Shift and the Middle East

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series.
April 25, 2019
Ehteshami, A. (Durham University)
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SMA Speaker Series

Ukraine: The Epicenter of Hybrid Warfare and Ways to Win There

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Spencer Meredith III (National Defense University) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Meredith first explained that Ukraine is at the epicenter of Russia’s global strategy.
April 23, 2019
Meredith, S. (National Defense University)
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SMA Speaker Series

UW Countergovernance: Political Warfare in Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by MAJ Jeffrey Uherka (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)) as a part of its SMA NDU Speaker Series.
April 22, 2019
Uherka, J. (US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC))
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SMA Speaker Series

Geopolitics and the Future of Money: CryptoConcerns

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Girish Nandakumar (USSOCOM Donovan Group) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
April 17, 2019
Nandakumar, G. (USSOCOM Donovan Group)
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Russia)

NSI Publication

Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends

Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven by pragmatic considerations. Many described the Iran-Russia and Iran- China relationships as primarily transactional, with each having something concrete the other needs to meet their domestic economic growth and development needs.
Year Published:
2020
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