Guns to Butter: Economic Concerns and Policy Preferences in Russia
“Guns to Butter: Economic Concerns and Policy Preferences in Russia“
Speaker: Snegovaya, M. (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies)
Date: 12 September 2019
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Maria Snegovaya (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Snegovaya first explained that there is a tradeoff between military and consumer spending: as a country invests more in its military (i.e., produces more guns), it must reduce household consumption (i.e., butter). Moreover, in times of economic stagnation or decline, overall production elevation is often infeasible, and thus a country must prioritize guns over butter. This can then have a significant impact on a country’s domestic public opinion and influence a population’s changing priorities. In her research, Dr. Snegovaya assessed to what extent these dynamics can be found in Russia. She conducted a survey both in 2014 and in 2018, which indicated that Russians’ priorities changed dramatically from an emphasis on justice, sovereignty, and military power to an emphasis on economic welfare over time. Therefore, the salience of Putin’s foreign policy appears to be declining as Russia’s economic situation worsens, according to Dr. Snegovaya. She then discussed the experimental survey that she conducted in June 2019, which assessed whether Russians increasingly favor “butter” over “guns” under economic strain. The results of this survey indicated that respondents concerned about the economic situation in Russia generally 1) are less likely to support increased military spending, 2) are more likely to believe that the state should prioritize its domestic agenda over its foreign policy agenda, 3) prioritize the country’s economic wellbeing over military might, 4) are less likely to consider Russia as a great power, and 5) experience a decrease in their support for Russian authorities as the economic situation worsens. Therefore, Putin’s ability to use propaganda in order to divert public attention from domestic problems such as economic decline through what Dr. Snegovaya referred to as “militaristic rhetoric” is limited.
Maria Snegovaya Bio
I am a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. I hold a Ph.D. in Political Science from Columbia University.
My research focus is the democratic backsliding and the spread of populist actors in East Central Europe. My dissertation explains the success of these parties in the region as a function of the economic policy choices made by left-leaning parties of the post-Communist era. I also explore the commonality in factors underlying the decline of leftist parties and the rise of populist right across Europe.
My main research interests also include Russia’s domestic and foreign policy, the political situation in Ukraine, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In particular, I research how the factors of Russia’s domestic politics affect its foreign policy dynamics.
Throughout my time in the doctoral program, I have collaborated with the Institute for the Study of War, the Brookings Institution, Eurasia Group, and Freedom House. I have authored several reports and studies, including “Stifling the Public Sphere: Media and Civil Society: Russia,” for the National Endowment for Democracy; and “Putin’s Information Warfare in Ukraine. Soviet Origins of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare. Analytical Report,” for the Institute for the Study of War.
My publications have appeared in peer-reviewed journals, the Washington Post‘s political science blog the Monkey Cage; the Huffington Post; the New Republic; Politico; and the American Interest. My research has been referenced in publications such as the New York Times, Bloomberg, the Economist, the Dish, and the Telegraph. I am frequently invited to give talks at U.S. universities and think tanks, including the Kennan Institute at Wilson Center, the Atlantic Council and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
I hold an M.A. and MPhil in Political Science from Columbia University as well as a Candidate Degree in Economics and a B.A. in Economics and Finance from the Higher School of Economics.
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