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Tagged: National Security Topic = Economics

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SMA Publications (Tagged: Economics)

SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

US Discoverable Government Information Assets Directory

The United States Government possesses a vast store of information assets that can be leveraged to inform a variety of problem sets, and can be used by a wide range of governmental actors in the formation and execution of whole-of-government strategies. To enable this goal, however, these assets first must be made accessible in a single source that catalogues the information that is held.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

US-DiGIA: USG Discoverable Information Terrain

The United States currently faces a complex and dynamic security environment. States are no longer the only critical actors in the international arena; rather, a diverse range of non-state entities also has the potential to affect US interests and security—for good or bad. Economic influence, information control and propaganda, political influence, and social discontent can be and are being utilized by state and non-state actors alike to achieve their goals, in many cases bypassing the need for direct military action. In response, the US military is challenged to accomplish more, across a greater variety of domains, while facing a constrained budget environment. There are two central implications of this: first, many of the most intractable security problems the US faces require a whole of government approach. Second, in a complex and evolving international environment characterized by new and often ambiguous threats, information itself is a critical asset.
Year Published:
2017
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SMA Publication

Holistic Engagement Activities Ranking Tool (HEART)

More than ever, United States Government (USG) activities are planned and implemented in an atmosphere of shrinking budgets, high expectations and intense scrutiny at home, plus non-conventional enemies and complex operating environments abroad. In the security realm, there is little debate that the demand for cost-effective, high-impact, and transparent use of government resources requires the Department of Defense (DOD), Department of State (DoS), and other government entities that operate oversees to work together or in complementary ways. Still, departments and their components have their own expanding missions, dwindling resources and programs to administer, making achieving unity of effort difficult. At present, there is no readily accessible process or framework that can incorporate and integrate the range of USG security-related activities abroad and that DOD planners and non-DOD practitioners might use to build common operating pictures – either within their own departments or in coordination with other departments working related activities. This deficiency increases the likelihood that what might be cost-saving efficiencies or wasteful redundancies in US security assistance and engagement programs will go unnoticed by planners and decision makers. Recognizing that US Africa Command (AFRICOM) engagement strategists and planners are in particular need of a systematic process for aligning resources and activities to strategies in the most effective and efficient ways possible, the Command J5 requested that the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) team, “develop an evaluative tool to aid in prioritization and metric development for command engagement strategies.”
Year Published:
2015
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SMA Publication

Risk and Ambiguity in the Gray Zone

Risk and ambiguity are central to activities in the Gray Zone. Policymakers can manipulate risk, and use it as a tool for deterrence or escalation management. They can also manipulate ambiguity. In the Gray Zone understanding risk and ambiguity is key to achieve intended and avoid unintended effects.
Year Published:
2016
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SMA Publication

NeuroS&T Influence and Deterrence Effects

This white volume focuses on possible ways that insights from the neurosciences may be incorporated into, and used within the United States Government’s (USG) approaches and ability to conduct optimized influence and deterrence operations for the purpose of maintaining global stability. In this context, neuroscientific techniques, technologies and information are viewed as viable means to build upon and enhance tactical approaches from other disciplines such as the social sciences. Understanding the neurobiology of human behavior can provide an added dimension to formulating deterrence and influence strategies in the context of a security environment that has become more complex and far more fluid over last few decades. In this white paper, the term “neurodeterrence” refers to the consideration and application of evolutionary neurobiological information about, and understanding of cognition and social behaviors that are important to deterrence theory in contexts of conflict.
Year Published:
2014
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SMA Publication

Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises – A Social Science Context

Cooperative security, stability operations and irregular warfare missions require a better understanding of the complex operational environment, notably through rich contextual understanding of the factors affecting stability. Further assessment, policy, and planning need to consider factors associated with institutional performance (community organizations, government ministries, legal structures, etc.) based on how societies emerge, develop, and function, as well as attributes that provide resiliency and flexibility.
Year Published:
2010
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SMA Publication

Collaboration in National Security: Myths and Reality

The purpose of this compendium of white papers is to explore various perspectives on the state of the art in our understanding of collaboration, including insights on the key factors that influence the who, what, when, where, and how of this topic. Collaboration traditionally refers to multiple people or organizations working towards common goals, but there are many other perspectives and definitions. The objective of this compendium is to identify and discuss the issues:
Year Published:
2009
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SMA Publication

West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model

The West Africa Exploitable Conditions Model (WAECM) is an empirical, concept-based, system-of systems model tailored to the region of West Africa, as defined by USAFRICOM’s interactive AOR map (https://www.africom.mil/military-presence). Developed from the AFRICOM Exploitable Conditions Model (AECM), it identifies various variables or factors (nodes) and their linkages through direct connections to one another (edges), representing the complex conditions and dynamics of the OE in West Africa.
Year Published:
2025
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SMA Publication

Media Reporting on Egypt’s Economy and Bailout Narratives: The Role of Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian Media Narratives in Solving Egypt’s Economic Crisis

This study examined Egyptian, Russian, and Chinese media perspectives of the Egyptian economy to determine to what extent a future economic crisis in Egypt is probable, and identification of which great powers would most likely lead bailout efforts should an economic crisis unfold. To answer these questions, researchers employed a mixed-method approach analyzing over 500 news articles from the past five years from 18 different Egyptian, Chinese, and Russian native language news sites.
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Sino-Russian Competition: Self-Inflicted Competition in Central Asia?

China and Russia support each other’s political and economic objectives both globally and in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR) because, in part, of a strong mutual interest in weakening the United States’ geopolitical influence and power (Solomentseva, 2014; Lons, 2019).
Year Published:
2020
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SMA Publication

Leaders of the Chinese Economy: Cognitive and Motivational Analyses

In order to gain a quantified, evidence-based picture of decision-making tendencies of Chinese industrial, technical, economic, and political leaders, the UBC research group assessed the integrative complexity and motivational hierarchy of high-level figures in government and (ostensibly) private enterprise.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Chinese Strategic Intentions: A Deep Dive into China’s Worldwide Activities

This white paper was prepared as part of the Strategic Multilayer Assessment, entitled The Future of Global Competition and Conflict. Twenty-seven experts contributed to this white paper, providing wide-ranging assessments of China’s domestic and international activities in order to assess the future of China and the challenges that these activities may present to US interests. This white paper is divided into five sections and twenty-four chapters. While this summary presents some of the white paper’s high-level findings, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the experts’ individual contributions, which are worth reading in their entirety.
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

TRADOC G-2 Modeling and Simulation Directorate China Futures Study

The Competitive Zone (or Gray Zone) is “an operational environment ‘churning with political, economic, and security competitions that require constant attention.’” Given Russia’s military actions in eastern Ukraine and China’s expansion in the South China Sea, “military and academic communities have attempted to describe conflict in the Gray Zone to create shared understanding and spur discussion on conflict and competition in this space.”
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

12th Annual SMA Conference- The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World

The 12th Annual SMA Conference, entitled “The Evolving Anatomy of Conflict in a Dynamically Changing World,” was held 21-22 May 2019 at the General Jacob E. Smart Conference Center at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. The conference theme was defined as:
Year Published:
2019
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SMA Publication

Marketization of the North Korean Economy – A Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank Report

This report summarizes the input of 12 insightful responses from the Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) expert contributors. While this summary response presents an overview of the key expert contributor insights, the summary alone cannot fully convey the fine detail of the contributor inputs provided, each of which is worth reading in its entirety. The expert contributors identify factors that explain the apparent condoning of controlled marketization in North Korea, as well as factors that appear to be inhibiting broader marketization in the country. This summary first discusses the key drivers of North Korean marketization and then considers the primary inhibitors to broader North Korean marketization efforts.
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Publication

Key Actor Interests in the Asia Pacific – A Korea Strategic Outcomes Virtual Think Tank Report

[Q8] How do key actors in the Asia Pacific (Australia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, North Korea, Philippines, Russia, South Korea, and the United States) define their key national interests / regional objectives in Northeast Asia and the Western Pacific? What are seen by each actor to be the major threats to each interest? Are there any redlines associated with these interests?
Year Published:
2018
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SMA Speaker Series (Tagged: Economics)

SMA Speaker Series

China’s Economic, Scientific, and Information Activities in the Arctic: Benign Activities or Hidden Agenda?

China’s research and information-gathering activities in the Arctic have raised security concerns among other Arctic nations, particularly regarding infrastructure, natural resources, data management, and diplomatic influence. China’s involvement in the region began in 1996 with its proposal to establish a temporary research station on the Svalbard Archipelago—an initiative that eventually became permanent. In 2013, China obtained observer status in the Arctic Council and published its first Arctic policy in a 2018 White Paper. Since then, many nations have perceived China’s increasing Arctic activity as both an economic opportunity and as a potential security threat.
June 24, 2025
Dr. Stephanie Pezard
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SMA Speaker Series

The “New” And “Old” in Xi Jinping as a Chinese Leader

Xi Jinping is frequently described as a fundamentally new type of leader in Chinese politics—one who has dismantled the tradition of collective leadership and revived elements of Maoist ideological discourse. While these characterizations contain some validity, they do not fully capture the nuances of Chinese elite politics or the current role of ideology within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP has long functioned as a system that is notably leader-centric, and assertions that Xi is abandoning Deng Xiaoping’s institutional leadership framework do not align with recent historiographical reassessments of Deng’s governance. Although Xi appears committed to restoring ideological conviction among party members as essential to the CCP’s survival, his formative experiences during the Mao era likely instilled a degree of skepticism toward radical politics. Xi’s ideological approach appears to chart a middle path—seeking to preserve the economic dynamism of the Reform and Opening period while selectively invoking elements of earlier ideological frameworks to address the socio-political challenges stemming from those reforms. Furthermore, given the CCP’s top-down power structure, it remains improbable that internal elite coalitions will compel a strategic realignment.
May 20, 2025
Dr. Joseph Torigian
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SMA Speaker Series

Focus on the New Economy, Not the Old: Why China's Economic Slowdown Understates Gains

National headlines about China’s economy have focused on its decelerating economic growth and gross domestic product (GDP).
April 30, 2025
Mr. Gerard DiPippo (RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

Russian Adaptation to Sanctions: The Military Industrial Complex and Regional Dynamics

The Russian economy has proven stubbornly resilient to Western sanctions. Ms. Ribakova discussed this resilience through two lenses: the military industrial complex and the economic convergence of Russia’s regions.
December 10, 2024
‍Elina Ribakova
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SMA Speaker Series

Rebuilding Ukraine with Mr. Pavlo Kukhta

The ongoing Russian invasion has dramatically affected Ukraine’s industry and economy, forcing Ukraine to reimagine and rebuild its industrial base and market structure.
June 20, 2024
Pavlo Kukhta
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SMA Speaker Series

The Sanctions Response to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

The sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its past aggressive actions, such as the annexation of Crimea, targeted actors directly involved in its aggression. However, the current sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine have a much broader scope, encompassing actors and institutions throughout Russian society.
April 11, 2024
Christine Abely
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SMA Speaker Series

The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter

Dr. O’Neil offers a reframed perspective on economic globalization, highlighting the prominence of increased interregional trade rather than international trade.
April 16, 2024
Shannon K. O’Neil
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SMA Speaker Series

How Kenyans Are Responding to China's Belt and Road Initiative: Adding Nuance with Hyperlocal Data

Fraym, a geospatial data company, combines survey and satellite data using advanced machine learning to produce population information with 1km2 resolution. In their presentation, Ms. Turner and Mr. Santiago discussed hyperlocal views of populations near Kenyan Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, particularly views towards the US, China, the US military, and BRI projects. Survey data and analysis show the US and China are both viewed positively in Kenya, 89% and 75% respectively; adults with favorable views of one country often have favorable views of the other. Kenyan’s sentiment toward the long-term and short-term impacts of the BRI are different. Fear of unemployment, debt, and displacement are associated with the short-term effects of BRI projects. For example, Mr. Santiago cited that 62% of Kenyan’s believe that an increase in Chinese workers will increase Kenya’s unemployment rate. There are also some fears relating to a debt trap surrounding Kenyan infrastructure and Chinese loans. However, as these fears abate over time and positive long-term effects of the BRI are felt, Kenya’s sentiment toward the BRI may become positive. Also, there is differing levels of sentiment towards increasing involvement of the US in Kenya. Reasons for support for increasing US involvement are increased security, a transfer of training and knowledge, and new advanced technology among others. Reasons for hesitancy relating to an increase of US involvement are that the US will attract enemies, general distrust, and fears that increased US involvement will bring back colonialism.
March 7, 2023
Erica Turner (Senior Data Analyst & Project Manager, Fraym) and Elijah Santiago (Senior Manager for Growth, Fraym)
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SMA Speaker Series

US-China Technological "Decoupling": Strategy, Policy, and Military Implications

The techno-globalist world that we once lived in is now being pulled back. What we are witnessing is not a technological divorce, but rather a reduction in the technological interdependence between the US and China. There are two primary ways in which the US government has reduced its technological interdependence with China. One method is the use of defensive controls (e.g., export controls, visa limits, investment screenings), and the other is the use of offensive controls (e.g., Chips Act, Inflation Reduction Act). In 2022, the US government has taken much more of an offensive approach than ever before. Traditional defensive tools used by the US have also been greatly intensified and implemented in new ways against China, and a series of new defensive tools have been developed as well.
December 20, 2022
Jon Bateman (Senior Fellow, Technology and International Affairs Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
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SMA Speaker Series

Modeling Exploitable Conditions in the 21st Century Strategic Environment

The creation of a computational model that encapsulates the increasingly complex and overwhelming world as multiple systems that can be measured empirically could have strong implications for civilian and military decision makers. NSI Inc. and SMA are currently working on such a model that is expanding on prior research conducted by TRADOC G-2. NSI has expanded on TRADOC’s original 24 exploitable conditions to create the Global Exploitable Conditions Model (GECM) as part of the Anticipating the Future Operational Environment (AFOE) project for the US Joint Staff. Dr. Kuznar stated that while GECM is supported by a large corpus of qualitative research, a computational model has been built to empirically test it through network and system dynamics. GECM contains 17 subsystems that are comprised of 124 nodes and 829 edges where nodes connect. This model is the starting point for all of NSI’s research during the AFOE project.
November 30, 2022
Dr. Lawrence Kuznar (Chief Cultural Sciences Officer, NSI)
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SMA Speaker Series

Semiconductors, China, Taiwan, and the US Policy Debate: Intersecting Technological, Economic Security, and Geopolitical Realities

China and Taiwan’s political relationship is highly confrontational; however, China’s dependence on advanced semi-conductors produced in Taiwan acts as a defensive shield for Taiwan. Semi-conductors are one of the most complex technological tools ever created. Dr. Cronin emphasized that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TMSL) is responsible for most of the current semiconductor industry. Taiwan provides 70% of China’s semi-conductor needs. China has the industrial infrastructure and the capability to mass-produce semi-conductor chips; however, they lack the means to produce the highly advanced chips used in advanced weapons systems. It is believed that most of China’s advanced missiles include Taiwanese semi-conductor chips that were produced under contract with the US. The US owns much of the intellectual property associated with the semiconductor chip industry.
November 9, 2022
Cronin, R. (The Stimson Center)
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SMA Speaker Series

Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace

Wars throughout history have skewed peoples’ beliefs on the likelihood of states going to war with each other. The number and frequencies of wars in the past have made it a commonly held belief that states are likely to go to war. However, state leaders are more likely to avoid military conflict, using it as only a last resort. For example, India accidentally fired a missile into its generational rival, Pakistan, earlier this year, but managed to avoid war. Dr. Blattman emphasized that countries avoid military conflict because war is costly and ruinous; especially between two nuclear powers such as India and Pakistan. He identified five reasons why states sometimes ignore war’s costly nature: 1) unaccountable leaders, 2) ideological leaders, 3) leaders’ and their advisors’ biases, 4) uncertainty of a war’s costliness, and 5) the lack of trust between states to commit to a diplomatic deal.
October 18, 2022
Dr. Christopher Blattman (Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies, Pearson Institute and Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago)
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SMA Speaker Series

A World Emerging from Pandemic: Implications for Intelligence and National Security (Part 2 of 2)

The COVID-19 pandemic occurred at a time when the global community was more physically and digitally connected than ever before. Mr. Kerbel reflected that those working in the information community (IC) believed that the pandemic would alter their collective worldview and modus operandi. However, he believes that while a larger portion of the IC works from home than ever before, the pandemic did not actually change the IC’s worldview. Instead, while global COVID-19 rates have started to decrease, members of the IC have already started to shift their mindset back to Cold War-era thinking. This is partly because the IC is built to handle complicated issues well, but it is not currently structured to achieve its objectives in a modern world comprised of complex systems. For example, the cyber domain and digital realm did not exist during the Cold War. These developments have led to the addition of an entirely new theatre of asymmetric warfare since the Cold War. Mr. Kerbel also argued that even though some members in the IC believe that countries are going through a phase of deglobalization and that the US is decoupling from China, neither of these hypotheses are true.
October 6, 2022
Kerbel, J. (Professor of Practice, National Intelligence University); Schenker, J. (Chairman, The Futurist Institute; President, Prestige Economics); Brown, Z. (Founder, Consilient Strategies)
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SMA Speaker Series

Capitalizing on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to Advance Mutual US-Africa Prosperity

Despite being considered economically hopeless during the mid-2000s, African countries and their trade have grown dramatically in recent years, attracting attention from China and other international actors. This vast economic growth led African countries to create the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA). AfCTA—which was officially signed in 2021—includes 55 member states and is the second largest free trade organization in the world behind the World Trade Organization. Professor Signé commented that several factors exponentially increasing African trade include: growing household consumption of goods, fast-paced urbanization, many cellphone users, and Africa’s growing share of the global population. While there are many positive indicators for economic growth and inter-continental African trade, AfCTA faces several serious barriers to economic and trade growth.
September 14, 2022
Professor Landry Signé (Associate International/Defense Researcher, RAND)
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SMA Speaker Series

China in Sri Lanka and the Political Economic Crisis

Mr. Abeyagoonasekera began the presentation by stating that China’s loans and investments in Sri Lanka are ultimately creating a debt trap.
August 2, 2022
Abeyagoonasekera, A. (The Millennium Project)
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SMA Speaker Series

Value Chains in Flux: Commercial and Geopolitical Imperatives Framing Possible Futures

The COVID-19 pandemic and the political fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is exposing the weaknesses of value chains and causing academics and economists to question what influences the resiliency of global supply and value chains. Mr. Steen started by making an important distinction between value chains and supply chains.
July 27, 2022
Peter Steen (Global Strategy and Economics Advisor, US Department of Defense, Joint Staff Strategy, Plans and Policy Directorate, Director’s Advisory Group)
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SMA Speaker Series

Race for the Future of Money: Fragmentation, Competition, and National Security in the World of Distributed Ledger Technology

Since Satoshi Nakamoto’s 2009 white paper on blockchain technology—which laid the groundwork for Bitcoin’s creation—105 countries have at least investigated starting their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Of these 105 countries, only 10 have fully launched a digital currency.
July 20, 2022
Ananya Kumar (Assistant Director for Digital Currency, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council)
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SMA Speaker Series

The Nature, Causes, and Consequences of Extreme Inequality and Why It Persists in Sub-Saharan Africa

Peoples’ lives can be accurately predicted by the demographics they are born into, including their gender and family’s socioeconomic status.
June 8, 2022
Dr. Singumbe Muyeba
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SMA Speaker Series

Degrees of Separation: Targeted Decoupling and the US-China Relationship

SMA hosted a speaker session with Ms. Stephanie Segal(Non-resident Senior Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) and Mr. Matthew Reynolds (Research Associate, Economics Program, CSIS) as part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
March 30, 2022
Stephanie Segal and Matthew Reynolds
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SMA Speaker Series

The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's China

SMA hosted a speaker session with The Honorable Kevin Rudd (President & Chief Executive Officer, Asia Society; 26th Prime Minister of Australia) as part of its SMA NDU (INSS/PRISM) Speaker Series.
March 30, 2022
Kevin Rudd
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SMA Speaker Series

Geoeconomics Revisited

It is not necessary for a country to defeat its adversaries through its military capabilities when that country practices geoeconomics, Dr. Luttwak argued. Instead, it can apply economic pressure by outproducing or investing in an industry that a smaller or less developed country relies upon. Another form of offensive geoeconomics is when a country encourages companies located in an adversarial country to export to them in order to increase those companies’ dependence on their own domestic market. By doing this, the importing country can suddenly cut off foreign companies from their main market, which will, in turn, increase political pressure on those companies’ governments. Examples of this strategy can be found within the Australian wine industry, which is reliant on China, and China’s dependence on ARM computer processors made in the US. On the other hand, this geoeconomical tactic also increases the importing country’s vulnerability to being potentially shut off from an important resource. Therefore, increasing the amount of money spent on research and development to maintain technological advantages is also a crucial tool for geoeconomics, Dr. Luttwak emphasized.
April 9, 2021
Dr. Edward N. Luttwak
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SMA Speaker Series

Realities, Imperatives, & Principles of Great Power Competition (GPC): Today & Into the Biden Administration

Dr. Lynch stated that we are entering a new era of great power competition (GPC) between the US and its systemic rivals, Russia and China. However, he believes that historical examples of past GPC can still provide insights for how the current competition will end. He emphasized that competition occurs on a continuum on which states compete through their militaries, ideologies, political institutions, economies, and the control of information. He then defined a great power as a country that has unusual capabilities which aid in its pursuit of its objectives abroad and force other countries to take its wants and needs into account when forming policy. In historical examples of GPC, there are usually several countries that can be considered as great powers who rarely cooperate with each other. However, instances of outright military conflict are also very rare. Dr. Lynch predicted that what will likely occur between the US and its adversaries is a mixture of cooperation to protect global markets, on which they both rely, and competition to undercut each other politically. He further suggested that a drastic transition of power from the US to either China or Russia is unlikely because a transition of power usually occurs after a major military conflict. A major military conflict will probably not occur for several reasons, including that these countries are unlikely to demean each other’s domestic populations. Demeaning another country’s domestic population was mentioned as the quickest way to accelerate political tensions.
March 18, 2021
Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III
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SMA Speaker Series

The Global Struggle for Strategic Advantage in ICT

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Mark Montgomery (US Cyberspace Solarium Commission) and Mr. Robert Morgus (US Cyberspace Solarium Commission) as a part of its SMA Strategic Advantage Speaker Series. Mr. Montgomery began the group’s presentation by stating that China has purposefully acted maliciously towards the US by using information operations (IO) that are consistently below the threshold for kinetic reprisals. An example of China’s malicious activity is its installation of malware on hard drives that are being exported to the US. In response to China’s low-level malicious activity, one of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission’s objectives was to build appropriate escalation thresholds. However, according to Mr. Montgomery, the command most effected by China’s IO, US Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM), is undermanned, overworked, and undertrained. Making USCYBERCOM’s task more difficult, the US no longer has a strong strategic advantage in information and communications technology (ICT). Mr. Montgomery stated that ultimately, the USG needs to cooperate with the US private sector and its allies to counteract China’s growing presence in the information environment (IE). He then added that that the success of this strategy relies on five pillars, which include 1) identifying key technology equipment, 2) ensuring that the minimum resources required for manufacturing to take place are present, 3) protecting the US’s supply chain, 4) stimulating its own domestic market, and 5) ensuring its long-term global competitiveness.
March 16, 2021
Mark Montgomery and Robert Morgus
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SMA Speaker Series

Geoeconomics and Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Gen (Ret.) David Petraeus (Partner and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute & Former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency; Commander of the International Security Assistance Force; Commander, US Forces – Afghanistan; Commander, US Central Command; and Commanding General, Multi-National Force – Iraq), as a part of its SMA INSS/PRISM Speaker Series.Gen Petraeus began his presentation by stating that the competition between the US and China is not militarily- or economically-centric. Instead, the Sino-US competition is focused on governmental and international systems. Gen Petraeus stated that while the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) control of China’s domestic economy does give the nation some advantages, the US’s free market provides advantages of its own. According to Gen Petraeus, a country’s GDP drives its ability to invest in its military and defense systems. He stated that China’s recent domestic economic growth, which has pulled millions of its citizens out of poverty, gives the CCP the ability to better compete with the US in a variety of domains. He then used the US falling behind China in its production of semiconductors as evidence of China’s increased ability to compete. Nonetheless, Gen Petraeus believes that the US maintains an overall military and economic advantage over China. He also emphasized that the US should rely on its allies more than ever to counteract an increasingly powerful China.
February 19, 2021
General David H. Petraeus
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SMA Speaker Series

Economics, Diplomacy, and Great Power Competition

Mr. Zoellick set the stage by outlining three recurring themes in US-China relations. First, he discussed the notion of China as a commercial prospect, pointing to historic US fascination with the potentially vast wealth of China. Second, he underscored the idea of China as a major international actor, grounding the discussion both in earlier US conceptions of China as an international actor of note and in President Roosevelt’s post-WWII vision of China serving as one of the four great world policemen along with the US, the USSR, and Great Britain. Third, he highlighted the recurring American aspiration to convert the Chinese people—first to Christianity but then to other values, such capitalism and republicanism. He rooted this analysis in the history of American missionary efforts in China, beginning in the 19th century, and noted how the American opinion of China became extremely negative when China went in the opposite direction of American aspirations during the Boxer Rebellion, the Communist Revolution of 1949, the Korean War, Tiananmen Square, and even today.
January 13, 2021
Robert B. Zoellick
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Strategic Situation Awareness: Economy

SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Mr. Pete Steen (Joint Staff, J5), as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series.Mr. Steen began his presentation by posing the question, “How did the pandemic affect the US economy, and what are the implications for national security?” He noted that pre-COVID, the underlying narratives that characterized the strategic environment were trade war, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), cheap money, and digital surveillance. In contrast, the post-COVID themes will likely shift to include multipolar competition and lessons on efficacy, durable damage distribution, and uneven digitization. Mr. Steen argued that there is a growing narrative that compares the US to China in terms of their effectiveness in handling the pandemic. He noted that this is an example of the ongoing competition between authoritarianism and democracy as a model for society. According to Mr. Steen, China is propagating a message that argues that the tools of authoritarianism have allowed it to manage the pandemic better than the US and democracies, more generally. This narrative reflects the competition for perceived success, not only in the healthcare realm but also in terms of the economy.
December 10, 2020
Peter Steen
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SMA Speaker Series

American Businesses and Great Power Competition

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM/AFRICOM Speaker Series. The speaker was GEN (Ret.) Joseph Votel (Former Commander, USSOCOM and USCENTCOM; President and CEO, Business Executives for National Security (BENS)).GEN Votel began the conversation by describing the role and history of BENS within the national security community. The mission of the organization is to utilize the expertise of members across a swath of the private sector by applying their best practices and lessons learned to national security issues. The government, therefore, benefits from the work of BENS and the insights provided by the businesspeople involved in the organization. GEN Votel stated that he believes there is an inherent responsibility between prosperity and security, a fact that needs to be broadly recognized by the government and private sector alike. Furthermore, success in the private sector should not come at the expense of the security of US citizens.
November 20, 2020
Joseph Votel
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SMA Speaker Series

GeoEconomics and the Emerging World Order: The Power of the U.S. Dollar

SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA INSS/PRISM Speaker Series, entitled “Geoeconomics and the Emerging World Order: The Power of the U.S. Dollar.” This brief was presented by the Honorable Jack Lew (Former United States Secretary of the Treasury, White House Chief of Staff, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget).
September 24, 2020
Jack Lew
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SMA Speaker Series

Global Economic Prospects: Pandemic and Crisis

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Carlos Arteta (World Bank) as a part of its SMA UK MoD Speaker Series. Dr. Arteta first stated that the global economy is projected to suffer the deepest and most synchronized recession since WWII, and countries with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) will likely be disproportionally affected. He then spoke about the global growth prospects in the near-term. Restrictions implemented as a result of this pandemic have led to work closures, international travel restrictions, school closures, etc., which have negatively impacted global GDP. Additionally, traditional economic indicators, such as trade and tourism, have collapsed. As a result, global GDP is projected to contract by 5%, but on a regional scale, regions like Latin America and the Caribbean will be disproportionally affected by upwards of 9%. Furthermore, 90% of per capita income in developing regions will decline, pushing millions of people into extreme poverty. Next, Dr. Arteta explained how the situation could worsen. He suggested that a deeper downturn of the global economy could occur with a more protracted pandemic, reescalation of trade tensions, or ineffective support policies. Additionally, a slower economic recovery from the recession could result from longer-lasting effects on households and firms, larger-than-expected adverse impact on potential growth, and/or weaker development outcomes. Dr. Arteta then used data displaying the spread of COVID-19 cases in advanced economies vs. EDMEs to show that for some of these countries, it is unclear if we have reached the peak of the virus yet; so, there may be worse conditions to come. Moreover, growth projections are fragile, and there is a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast for what will come. Dr. Arteta also addressed the question of what the long-term implications of COVID-19 will be, naming weaker potential output, investment, and productivity over the long term as likely results. He stated that potential growth has been declining in many regions already (pre-COVID), and per capita incomes are projected to plunge. Both of these will be met with sharper declines when accompanied by a recession like the one the world is experiencing now. Dr. Arteta further explained that this recession is unique in that it was triggered by a pandemic. There is also little accurate data regarding the economic effects of a global pandemic, and the projections being made are based on data from regional pandemics, such as SARS, MERS, and Ebola. Therefore, it is ultimately unclear as to how magnanimous the global economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be. Finally, Dr. Arteta emphasized that the first priority for policymakers should be to address the immediate health crisis by supporting healthcare systems, providing aid to vulnerable groups, and cooperating globally to ensure a smooth flow of critical goods and debt relief to EMDEs. He also stressed the importance of sustained long-term growth in the wake of the pandemic. Designing reforms to improve flexibility in product and labor markets, stimulating investment, and creating global policies to address global public health challenges are all ways to prepare for another global recession of this scale.
July 21, 2020
Carlos Arteta
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA AFRICOM Panel Discussion- Libya

First, LTG(R) Nagata provided a series of historical remarks, beginning with the passage of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 in 2011, which created a no-fly zone as a result of the violent Libyan civil war occurring at the time. There was no language in this resolution regarding a plan to overthrow former Libyan Prime Minister Muammar Qaddafi; however, this event occurred regardless. After the overthrow, a transition council was created to promote lawful elections; however, armed militias began asserting their authority in multiple areas, and the interim Libyan prime minister did not have the power to crack down on them. This led to the dissolution of the General National Congress in Libya and an ongoing competition between Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar and anti-Libyan National Army (LNA) protestors. To conclude his remarks, LTG(R) Nagata stated that the Libyan strategic environment is a “perverse cauldron for the US,” as a proxy war is occurring that involves US allies fighting US allies.
February 28, 2020
Michael K. Nagata, Jason Pack, and Jonathan Winer
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA's Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part II (Assessing the Durability of the Chinese Regime)

Dr. Beckley began by discussing China’s slowing economic growth and how it is driving China to become more repressive at home and more aggressive abroad. He stated that China’s “economic miracle” is fading away rapidly. For example, though some economists state that China’s GDP is growing by around 6% annually, Dr. Beckley argued that it is realistically growing by about 3%. Furthermore, even if China was achieving 6% annual growth, GDP growth isn’t necessarily a direct indicator of economic growth. Productivity also factors into economic success, and over the past decade, China’s change in productivity has been negative. Dr. Beckley stated that China has been burning capital in order to achieve its rapid economic growth and starting infrastructure projects that are ultimately unprofitable, which is unsustainable. Next, Dr. Beckley explained that when fast-growing great powers slow down, they tend to crack down on domestic dissent while expanding and becoming more mercantilist abroad. China is indeed tightening its control at home, and it is expanding its economic and military footprint abroad as well. Though this trend makes China appear confident, Dr. Beckley argued that China is becoming more insecure at home, which will eventually lead to the use of more advanced forms of repression. The growth deceleration that usually proceeds is dangerous also, as these countries will search for ways to keep internal opposition at bay. Dr. Beckley cautioned US strategists to watch out for this. Next. Dr. Wright discussed China’s construction of a digital authoritarian regime and questioned its durability. He stated that authoritarian societies in the past have not been able to successfully become rich (and industrialized) and remain authoritarian societies. China, consequently, needs to find a way to distinguish itself from these authoritarian regimes of the past. Dr. Wright then explained what a digital authoritarian regime is. A digital authoritarian regime is a regime that uses AI surveillance tools and sensors in order to monitor and control its population. Self-automated surveillance tools makes authoritarianism cheaper, allowing nations like China to retain its wealth. To conclude, Dr. Wright argued that the Chinese digital authoritarian regime must remain flexible and adaptable in order to survive. It must overcome slowing economic growth and social challenges, namely an urbanizing population and an aging population.
February 13, 2019
Dr. Michael Beckley and Dr. Nicholas Wright
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SMA Speaker Series

SMA's Chinese Strategic Intentions White Paper Panel Discussion- Part I (Chinese Outreach Activities)

SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. The panelists included Prof. Anoush Ehteshami (Durham University), Dr. Cynthia Watson (National Defense University), Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy, West Point), and Col E. John Gregory (United States Military Academy, West Point). The moderator was Ms. Nicole (Peterson) Omundson (NSI, Inc.).
February 4, 2019
Anoush Ehteshami, Dr. Cynthia Watson, and Col E. John Gregory
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SMA Speaker Series

Weaponized Interdependence

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Abraham Newman (Georgetown University) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. Dr. Newman first explained his central argument: Economic networks form key hubs that centralize exchange. This process generates new types of coercive power for states, and deploying this power could create political risks for firms and geostrategic consequences for the US, allies, and adversaries. He then explained that globalization from private actions created world-spanning networks via global capital (i.e., global banks and the dollar clearing system) after the Cold War. These networks, Dr. Newman argued, are asymmetric. Not all nodes are equal; some nodes become hubs, and states with access to these hubs become “privileged.” These hubs provide points of centrality where actors can manage complexity, and these world-spanning networks have become more hierarchical as globalization has progressed. He then expressed concern about “privileged” states’ ability to use these hubs as levers of coercive power and used the SWIFT security system as an example. The SWIFT system records international transactions (almost 30 million per day), and according to Dr. Newman, it has been weaponized by the US government to combat terrorism and to impose sanctions on Iran, ultimately leading Iran to sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He then touched on some of the international resistance against the SWIFT system, including Russia’s movement towards blockchain payment systems, China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), and the EU’s Special Purpose Vehicle. He stated that the primary threat that these actions poses to US power in finance relates to the global financial infrastructure behind the US dollar, rather than the dollar itself; if other nations continue to find ways to circumvent the SWIFT system, the US will lose its ability to keep track of all global financial transactions. To conclude, Dr. Newman stated that policymakers need a strategic understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of weaponized interdependence. These tools can be enticing and seem very useful and powerful; however, they can have long-term consequences. Therefore, there is a need for the US to establish rules of the road in order to minimize potential escalation spirals, decoupling, or market disruption.
November 14, 2019
Abraham Newman
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SMA Speaker Series

Drivers and Ramifications of US Sanctions Policy Towards Russia

SMA hosted speaker session presented by Ms. Heather Conley (Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. During her brief, Ms. Conley discussed the effectiveness of US sanctions, particularly towards Russia. She first emphasized that sanctions are tools, rather than policies; however, recently, the US has used sanctions so frequently that they appear to be in lieu of formal policy. She then presented three questions for US decision makers to consider when thinking about the effectiveness of sanctions: 1) What goal are we trying to achieve?; 2) Does the target state understand what they need to do or what behavior they need to change?
October 18, 2019
Heather A. Conley
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SMA Speaker Series

China’s Belt and Road: Myths, Risks, and Responses

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Jonathan Hillman (Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)) as a part of its Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. During his brief, Mr. Hillman discussed what China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is, what threats/risks it poses, and what the US can do better as it determines how to respond to this growing effort. He first described the origin of the BRI and explained that there is no official definition of what a BRI project is. Since the scope of the BRI is so vast, many different conclusions can be made about it.
August 28, 2019
Jonathan Hillman
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SMA Speaker Series

Guns to Butter: Economic Concerns and Policy Preferences in Russia

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Maria Snegovaya (Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies) as a part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series. Dr. Snegovaya first explained that there is a tradeoff between military and consumer spending: as a country invests more in its military (i.e., produces more guns), it must reduce household consumption (i.e., butter). Moreover, in times of economic stagnation or decline, overall production elevation is often infeasible, and thus a country must prioritize guns over butter. This can then have a significant impact on a country’s domestic public opinion and influence a population’s changing priorities. In her research, Dr. Snegovaya assessed to what extent these dynamics can be found in Russia.
September 12, 2019
Maria Snegovaya
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SMA Speaker Series

Network Origins of the Global Economy: East vs. West In a Complex Systems Perspective

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Hilton Root (George Mason University) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Root first stated that there is an increased fear of global instability and a diminished confidence in the solutions of the past. Therefore, over the past 10-20 years, experts have started to rethink the grand narrative of political and economic history we have grown to adopt. Furthermore, the rise of the East and its diversion from the West in terms of norms and political organization have also inspired this rethinking. When writing his book, Dr. Root studied the history of regimes and examined five great transitions in history to derive the following conclusion: The global economy is a network of networks.
July 10, 2019
Hilton Root
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SMA Speaker Series

China's Vision of Victory: Chinese Global Strategy and What It Means for America

In this talk, Dr. Ward discussed Chinese long-term strategy. For China, the South China Sea is only the beginning.
May 30, 2019
Dr. Jonathan D.T. Ward
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SMA Speaker Series

Geopolitics and the Future of Money: CryptoConcerns

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Mr. Girish Nandakumar (USSOCOM Donovan Group) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
April 17, 2019
Nandakumar, G. (USSOCOM Donovan Group)
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SMA Speaker Series

Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Michael Beckley (Tufts University) as a part of its Future of Great Power Competition & Conflict Speaker Series. Dr. Beckley began his presentation by stating that the US’s economic lead over China is actually larger than most estimates display.
January 11, 2019
Beckley, M. (Tufts University)
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NSI Publications (Tagged: Economics)

NSI Publication

Social Science to Understand Strategic Threat

During the Cold War era, the strategic threat against the US was clear. The country responded clearly with a policy toward the Soviet threat that centered on deterrence, containment, and mutually assured destruction. To enforce this policy, the US created a strategic triad composed of nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles, Trident nuclear submarines, and long-range strategic bombers. Today, however, our security environment is profoundly different.
Year Published:
2017
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NSI Publication

Russian and Chinese Influence in Iran: Sources and Future Trends

Among all the experts interviewed for this report, there was a general consensus that relations between Iran and both Russia and China are driven by pragmatic considerations. Many described the Iran-Russia and Iran- China relationships as primarily transactional, with each having something concrete the other needs to meet their domestic economic growth and development needs.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

IRGC’s Role in the Black Economy

While official data do not exist, the informal (black) economy is estimated to be 35-44 percent of Iran’s stated gross domestic product (GDP), or some 160-200 billion USD.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

Internal Instability in Iran: Drivers and Regime Response

There was consensus among the subject matter experts (SMEs) who responded to this question that the primary driver of internal instability in Iran is the dismal state of the economy.
Year Published:
2020
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NSI Publication

IRGC-QF Malfeasant Activity Outside of the CENTCOM AOR

Experts interviewed state that they could find no evidence of recent changes in IRGC-QF activity outside of the CENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR). However, there are micro-trends that are of note, particularly for analysts focused on high risk, low probability events.
Year Published:
2020
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