How Thick or Thin Is Russian Support for Putin’s War Against Ukraine?—Political Perspectives of Russian Elites and Mass Publics Before the Invasion: An Analysis of Survey Data (2020-2021)
Speaker(s): Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy, West Point)
Date: 23 March 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Thomas Sherlock (Professor of Political Science, United States Military Academy, West Point) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made a politically risky decision when ordering the invasion of Ukraine. Dr. Sherlock commented that survey data across Russia’s civilian population and its elites shows that the invasion is not popular. He commented that the support for Russia’s military invasion is probably even weaker than what the survey data shows. Dr. Sherlock acknowledged that Russia’s authoritarian regime and its lack of free press undoubtedly affected the survey’s findings.
The survey asked Russians whether it was better to achieve great power status through economic prowess or military power and fear. The general civilian population, population of Russian Elites, and Russian military members all view these challenges differently. While the survey shows that Elites are more likely to consider the overt use of Russia’s military a viable option for increasing Russia’s global standing, most Russians are more concerned with improving their socioeconomic standings than growing Russia’s military. Most Russians also view the EU as Russia’s best option for a future economic partner. However, members of the Russian military gave very different answers to the survey. The majority believe that it is better to be feared because of military capabilities than respected for economic prowess. Russian military members also consider China as Russia’s best option for a future economic and security partner. While most Russians believe it is best to use economic soft power to grow Russia’s political influence, there is still some support for using its military to exert influence in former Soviet States. Also, Dr. Sherlock commented that if Putin were to be removed from office, Russia’s policies would likely not change because he would likely be replaced with a high-ranking military official who holds very similar beliefs.
Thomas Sherlock, Ph.D.
Thomas Sherlock is a professor of political science at the United States Military Academy, West Point. He received his doctorate in political science from Columbia University and teachescourses on comparative politics, democracy and democratization, comparative politicalinstitutions, international security, nationalism and populism, and the politics of the post-Sovietregion. His book, Historical Narratives in the Soviet Union and Post-Soviet Russia, waspublished in an expanded, translated edition by Rosspen (Moscow), a leading academicpublisher. He is also the co-author of The Fight for Legitimacy: Democracy vs. Terrorism.Thom has contributed chapters to several edited volumes and his articles have appeared innumerous journals, including Comparative Politics, Post-Soviet Affairs, Washington Quarterly,National Interest, Problems of Communism, Ab Imperio, Communist and Post-CommunistStudies, Problems of Post-Communism, Prepodavanie istorii i obshchestvovedeniia v shkole(Russia), and Rossiia v global’noi politike (Russia). He has written chapters for White Papers onRussia (2019) and China (2019) commissioned by the US Department of Defense.Thom’s opinion pieces have appeared in The Wall Street Journal, the New York Times(international edition), the Washington Post (the Monkey Cage), Valdai Discussion Club(Russia) and other outlets. He has served as a consultant for the Carnegie Council, the RussianAcademy of Sciences, the Open Society Foundations (Ukraine), and EUROCLIO in TheNetherlands, among other institutions.Thom frequently conducts field research in post-Soviet space. His current projects includebook-length studies on antisemitism and xenophobia in post-Soviet Eurasia; Russian nationalismand political memory; and the role of soft power in an era of great power competition.
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