The Surprisingly Unsurprising Russo-Ukraine War: Learning and Teaching the Right Lessons for Integrated Deterrence
Speaker(s): Roberson, P. (Commander and Commandant, US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School, Fort Bragg); Meredith, S. (National Defense University); Eltsov, P. (National Defense University); Davidson, C. (National Defense University)
Date: 5 April 2022
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session with Dr. Spencer Meredith (National Defense University), Dr. Peter Eltsov (National Defense University), Prof. Carolyne Davidson (National Defense University), and Maj. Gen. Patrick B. Roberson (Commander and Commandant, US Army John F. Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School, Fort Bragg) as part of its SMA EUCOM Speaker Series.
Traditional military intelligence effectively identifies an actor’s ongoing activities; however, it often misses the context surrounding why an actor chose to take certain actions and those actions’ subsequent consequences. Academia aims to fill this knowledge gap, according to Dr. Eltsov, as scholars offer explanations regarding actors’ rationale and why certain outcomes occur. Dr. Meredith commented that social sciences, like political science, can explain why certain social or military actions—such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—failed while similar instances throughout history were successful. Prof. Davidson added onto this observation, stating that Ukraine’s resistance to Russia could have been predicted if the US looked at Ukraine and other countries in the region with more strategic empathy. Also, the US will be able to better predict the outcome of future conflicts if it implements a global strategy for future deterrence.
Dr. Eltsov linked Ukraine’s military resilience and social willingness to resist Russia’s invasion to a strengthening of Ukrainian national identity. He attributed Russia’s miscalculation of Ukraine’s resilience to its assumption that many Ukrainians view themselves as Russian because Russian is the dominant language in much of Ukraine. He added that Russia’s current withdrawal from Kiev is also undermining Putin’s desired narrative as the leader of a nation with a modern and powerful military. MG Roberson identified military support and training from the United States and other Western countries prior to Russia’s invasion as a key contributing factor in Ukraine’s success. The presenters acknowledged that the defense capabilities of smaller countries may prove to be effective in deterring authoritarian and aggressive countries, like Russia and China, in the future, since these smaller countries can look to Ukraine’s success for inspiration.
Meredith, Eltsov, and Davidson Biographies
Dr. Spencer Meredith is a Professor of National Security Strategy at the National Defense University. As a faculty member in the College of International Security Affairs/Joint Special Operations Master of Arts program at Fort Bragg, Dr. Meredith works closely with the US Special Operations community.His efforts include development of operationally relevant research for the US Army JFK Special Warfare Center and School, strategic assessments for Theater Special Operations planning efforts, and participation in senior leader events at US Special Operations Command headquarters. He serves as Strategic Advisor and Russia Subject Matter Expert at the US Joint Special Operations Command,and as well for the US Army Special Operations Command Ukraine Irregular Warfare Working Group. Dr. Meredith has worked on the Russia problem set for more than two decades, including as aFulbright Scholar in Georgia in 2007. For the past decade, he has also worked closely with Ukrainiangovernment and NGO groups to strengthen resilience against Russian aggression.
Dr. Peter Eltsov is an Associate Professor at the National Defense University, College of International Security Affairs. He is the Department Chair of the Joint Special Operations Master of Arts program at Fort Bragg. Dr. Eltsov received his doctorate from Harvard University in Anthropology, and haslived and conducted research throughout Eurasia, including politically volatile regions of Baluchistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the Northern Caucasus. Prior to NDU, he held positions as an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow at the Free University of Berlin, a John W. Kluge Fellow at the Library of Congress, a research associate at Harvard University, and a lecturer at Wellesley College. He haspublished in anthropology, philology, and international affairs both in academic and mainstreamvenues and provided numerous commentaries for the media. He authored two books. His firstbook From Harappa to Hastinapura (Leiden: EJ Brill 2008) explores the complexities of the city andcivilization in ancient South Asia. His second book The Long Telegram 2.0 (Lanham: Lexington Books2019) deals with Russia’s resurgent political identity. In his current research, he is particularlyinterested in how competing interpretations of the past affect modern politics, including conflict andwar.
Professor Carolyne Davidson is an Assistant Professor at National Defense University’s College ofInternational Security Affairs where she teaches in the Joint Special Operations Master of Artsprogram at Ft. Bragg. Carolyne is a historian whose research interests lie in the intersections between strategic and security studies, history and policy, particularly in terms of the concept of multilateralism and alliances, grand strategy, American foreign relations, and the international history of the Cold War. More recently she has helped establish an Irregular Warfare Community of Interest in conjunction with other military and civilian researchers in partnership with the US Army JFK Special Warfare Center and School. Before coming to JSOMA, Carolyne held fellowships at the Brookings Institution, Sciences-Po, and the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies. She graduated from Cambridge University with a first-class degree in Social and Political Science and Law, and was awarded the Paul Mellon Fellowship to Yale University where she completed an LL.M at Yale Law School, as well as an MA and M .Phil in History. Her current research focuses on NATO and resilience, and she has a chapter forthcoming in Elie Baranets and Andrew Novo (eds) TransatlanticRelations and the Return of Great-Power Competition, University of Michigan Press.
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