A Strategic Analysis of Violent Extremist Organizations in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility
Authors | Editors: Logan, M. (University of Nebraska, Omaha); Zimmerman, L. (University of Nebraska, Omaha); Ligon, G. (University of Nebraska, Omaha) Executive Summary In this study, our research team examines the organizational sophistication, leadership, and tactical patterns of five high-priority Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) operating in the United States Central Command Area of Responsibility (USCENTCOM). The five VEOs include Hay’at Tahrir al- Sham (HTS), Islamic […]
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A “Colder War” Future in the USCENTCOM AOR? Realpolitik Trajectory of Major Powers and Regional Players
Authors | Editors: Jiang, M. (Creighton University); Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Report Abstract and Methodology This paper addresses potential security concerns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the next 5-25 years if a strong Chinese-Russian alliance develops. It also offers the U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) possible approaches to pre-empt both the formation […]
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SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion—Black Swans and Gray Rhinos in the CENTCOM AOR: Vigilance Against the Unsuspected and Keeping Our Eyes on the Prize
Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Four panelists with deep knowledge and experience in the USCENTCOM AOR and with complex systems modeling were asked to reflect on how to think about and anticipate surprises in the USCENTCOM area of responsibility (AOR), especially Black Swan surprises that are the product of non-linear relationships between interacting variables. […]
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Hunting Gray Rhinos and Black Swans: Statistical and Machine Learning Models of Political Stability and Terrorism
Authors | Editors: Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Day, J. (NSI, Inc.); Kuznar, E. (NSI, Inc.) Executive Summary Strategic surprise, the realization that one’s knowledge and assumptions are wrong and the adversary has an upper hand, is a national security nightmare (Amidon, 2005; Defense Science Board, 2015; Handel, 1984). Classic examples include Pearl Harbor, Sputnik, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the September 11, […]
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SMA CENTCOM Panel Discussion on Radicalization (Part I)
Speakers: Cooley, S. (Oklahoma State University); Peterson, N. (NSI, Inc.); Wright, N. (Intelligent Biology); Polansky, S. (NSI, Inc.); Kaltenthaler, K. (University of Akron); Kuznar, L. (NSI, Inc.); Lee, H. (US Army TRADOC) Date: 10 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a panel discussion as a part of its SMA CENTCOM Speaker Series. The panelists included Dr. Skye Cooley (Oklahoma State University), Ms. […]
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Thresholds in Cyberspace
Speaker: Schneider, J. (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) Date: 11 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider (Hoover Institution, Stanford University) as a part of its SMA GeneralSpeaker Series. Dr. Schneider first stated that the creation and management of thresholds is critical to the success of US strategy. She then cited Connable et al.’s when defining […]
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Denazification in Germany: Lessons for Deradicalization in the CENTCOM AOR
Author | Editor: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Report Preview Coming soon! Download Publication Coming soon!
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Deradicalization in History and Psychology: A Selective Review of the Literature
Authors | Editors: Suedfeld, P. (University of British Columbia); Grunert, L. (University of British Columbia); Morrison, B. (University of British Columbia) Summary Governments continue to pour money into deradicalization programs with the goal of rehabilitating violent extremists. Are there lessons in psychological theory and research, and in historical examples, from which current-day programs could benefit? In this paper we highlight lessons that are consistently found throughout […]
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Population Dynamics and Radicalization in the CENTCOM AOR: Post-Brexit EU2 + 1 and the UN vs. a US-led Coalition of the Willing
Author | Editor: Dorondo, D. (Western Carolina University) Introduction In 2020, the States of the European Union (EU), as well as NATO’s European members and those States not enjoying membership of one or both organizations (e.g. the United Kingdom, Austria, Switzerland, and others), confront a serious multi-faceted challenge. This challenge takes the form of popular radicalization […]
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Tips for Consuming Intelligence
Speaker: Gibson, K. (Retired) Date: 12 March 2020 Speaker Session Preview SMA hosted a speaker session presented by LTG Karen Gibson (Retired) as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series. LTG(R) Gibson discussed how decision makers (and civilians) can be wise consumers of intelligence and shape the intelligence environment. She first stated that using intelligence strategically requires strategy to begin with. Once […]
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