Realities, Imperatives, & Principles of Great Power Competition (GPC): Today & Into the Biden Administration
Speakers: Lynch, T. (Institute of National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University)
Date: 18 March 2021
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III (Institute of National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University), as a part of its SMA General Speaker Series.
Dr. Lynch stated that we are entering a new era of great power competition (GPC) between the US and its systemic rivals, Russia and China. However, he believes that historical examples of past GPC can still provide insights for how the current competition will end. He emphasized that competition occurs on a continuum on which states compete through their militaries, ideologies, political institutions, economies, and the control of information. He then defined a great power as a country that has unusual capabilities which aid in its pursuit of its objectives abroad and force other countries to take its wants and needs into account when forming policy. In historical examples of GPC, there are usually several countries that can be considered as great powers who rarely cooperate with each other. However, instances of outright military conflict are also very rare. Dr. Lynch predicted that what will likely occur between the US and its adversaries is a mixture of cooperation to protect global markets, on which they both rely, and competition to undercut each other politically. He further suggested that a drastic transition of power from the US to either China or Russia is unlikely because a transition of power usually occurs after a major military conflict. A major military conflict will probably not occur for several reasons, including that these countries are unlikely to demean each other’s domestic populations. Demeaning another country’s domestic population was mentioned as the quickest way to accelerate political tensions.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992, the US enjoyed a period of dominance where countries looked to cooperate with the US to increase their own economic and domestic prosperity. According to Dr. Lynch, this period ended in 2008, when Russia and China began covertly competing with the US, which progressed to overt competition in 2017. He stated that despite China’s overt competition with the US, the US should not consider itself as being in another Cold War. This is because China is not trying to supplant current global political systems but instead trying to expand its legitimate authority over them. Dr. Lynch added that as long as the USG does not force its allies to make stark economic choices between the US and China, then the US should maintain its advantage in the short term.
Dr. Lynch ended his presentation by stating that the Biden administration is facing a unique challenge because more than 30% of US citizens are resistant to the idea of increasing global cooperation. However, he believes that the current administration will be able to strike a balance of cooperation and competition with China that will decrease the likelihood of open conflict.
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Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III
Distinguished Research Fellow
Institute of National Strategic Studies (INSS)
National Defense University (NDU)
Washington, D.C.
SMA-J39 Speaker Series
Thursday, March 18, 2021
PRESENTATION TITLE: Realities, Imperatives, & Principles of Great Power Competition (GPC): Today & Into the Biden Administration
PRESENTATION DESCRIPTION:
This presentation updates and extends the concluding chapter of the NDU-Press, October 2020 book, Strategic Assessment 2020: Into a New Era of Great Power Competition, edited by Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III. It highlights several major framing characteristics of this new era. It then analyzes three main imperatives for American success in Great Power competition (GPC) by observing that: the Sino-American dyad is not a new Cold War; successful competition with China must feature a wise choice of U.S. allies; and the U.S. can only succeed if the national government smartly intervenes in the economy to fortify American competitive advantage. It offers historically based analysis demonstrating that four competitive principles are most critical to U.S. success in a long-term competition with China: firm yet flexible policies, prioritization of partnerships and alliances, confronting China’s leadership not its people, and playing for time. It concludes with an in-stride assessment of how the Biden Administration seems most likely to pursue U.S. policy and security interests in this new era of GPC.
SHORT BIOGRAPHY:
Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III is a Distinguished Research Fellow at the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) at the Institute of National Strategic Studies (INSS) of the National Defense University (NDU) in Washington, D.C. Dr. Lynch researches, writes, lectures, teaches, and organizes workshops and conferences for Department of Defense customers on the topics of Great Power Competition (GPC) & geopolitics, India’s strategic rise, Afghanistan-Pakistan & wider South Asia, the Gulf Arab States, and the past & future trajectory of radical Islam. His primary ongoing research is focused on GPC and on India’s strategic rise and implications for Indo-Pacific security and stability. Dr. Lynch has published three books including as editor of Strategic Assessment 2020: The Into a New Era of Great Power Competition (NDU Press, October 2020) He also has published more than a dozen book chapters and thirty feature monographs and journal articles.
Dr. Lynch joined INSS after a 28 year career in the active duty U.S. Army, serving in a variety of command and staff positions as an armor/cavalry officer and as a senior level politico-military analyst including as a Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff & Deputy Director of the Chairman’s Advisory & Initiatives Group; Commander of the U.S. Army War Theater Support Group in Doha, Qatar; Director of the Advisory Group for the Commander, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM); and Military Special Assistant to the U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan.
Dr. Lynch is a regular multi-media analyst and commentator on national and international programs. He is a member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and an adjunct professor in the Security Studies Program in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. He holds a B.S. from the U.S. Military Academy at West Point, a Master’s in Public Administration (MPA) and a Masters (M.A.) & Ph.D. in International Relations from the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.
https://inss.ndu.edu/Media/Biographies/Article-View/Article/634130/lynch-iii-thomas-f/
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