Hypersonic Weapons and Strategic Stability
“Hypersonic Weapons and Strategic Stability”
Speaker: Wilkening, D. (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Date: 15 January 2020
Speaker Session Preview
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Dean Wilkening (Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. During his brief, Dr. Wilkening spoke about hypersonic weapons, crisis instability, and arms race instability. He began by defining ‘crisis instability’ as any action that makes escalation (across the nuclear threshold) harder to control and significantly reduces the effectiveness of a major power’s nuclear deterrent. He then defined ‘arms race instability’ as any action that stimulates an action-reaction arms competition. Dr. Wilkening proceeded to introduce hypersonic vehicles into the discussion. He classified ballistic missiles, hypersonic glide vehicles, and hypersonic cruise missiles as hypersonic weapons and highlighted two main missions for US hypersonic weapons: 1) penetrate advanced integrated air defense systems and 2) hold time-critical targets at risk. These uses of hypersonic weapons, however, can lead to arms race instability and/or crisis instability. Dr. Wilkening explained that arms race instability (and inadvertent escalation) could result from Russia and/or China modernizing their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), investing in alternatives, or launching on warning or under attack. Crisis instability (and inadvertent escalation) could result from a compressed timeline, leading to less careful decision making, misperceptions, misunderstandings, miscommunication, and/or an increased chance for accidental or unauthorized attacks. Nuclear, warhead, and target ambiguity also play a role in making attack assessment difficult when performing hypersonic maneuvers. Lastly, Dr. Wilkening explained that the choice to use “long-range” or “tactical” weapons could lead to false perceptions of escalation. To conclude, Dr. Wilkening discussed how strategic instability can be avoided and presented a series of questions to ponder regarding to hypersonic weapons and strategic stability, including: 1) Will hypersonic weapons lead to offense dominance in strike warfare?; 2) How should the US balance the demands of conventional warfare with the need to maintain strategic stability with Russia and China?; and 3) How much strategic warning is prudent to assume for conflicts with Russia and China?
Speaker Session Audio Recording
To access an audio recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).
Biography: Dean A. Wilkening
Dr. Dean Wilkening is a senior staff scientist in the Precision Strike Mission Area at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory working on long-range precision strike kill chains, especially for hypersonic weapons. Previous research involved various technical and policy aspects of ballistic missile defense, bioterrorism and nuclear weapons. He has participated in Defense Science Board Studies on Advanced Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threats, Constrained Military Operations, and Multi-Domain Effects, and was a member of US National Academy of Science committees on biological terrorism and ballistic missile defense. Prior to joining APL, he worked at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, and the RAND Corporation. He received his PhD in physics from Harvard University, is a fellow of the American Physical Society, and has published over 60 journal articles, book chapters and monographs on a range of security topics.
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