Strategic Outcomes in the Korean Peninsula
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At the request of the Joint Staff J-39 DDGO, SMA initiated an effort in April 2018 to develop a sound understanding of plausible near-term strategic outcomes of executing US political-military options to counter or defeat Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) threats to US national interests, ally and partner interests, and regional stability.

SMA assumed the following hypothetical US objectives: 1) complete and verifiable denuclearization of the DPRK; 2) non-proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific; 3) stable security situation in Northeast Asia and Western Pacific; 4) strong, stable diplomatic and economic relationships and institutions in the Western Pacific; and 5) US well-positioned as a regional leader as it relates to the other objectives. SMA assessed strategic political, security, and economic implications of executing political-military options and their implications for US objectives and influences in the Western Pacific and Northeast Asia region in the near-term (0-2 years), medium-term (3-7 years), and long-term (7+ years). SMA conducted a three-phase effort to meet the request. In Phase I, prior to June 2018, SMA prioritized seven questions to identify potential “redlines” or actions that might cause an escalation of tensions with the DPRK. In Phases II and III, SMA focused on near- and long-term strategic outcomes of US objectives.

Performers:

NSI, ICONS University of Maryland; TRADOC G-27 Operational Environmental Center; USAF/A9; USAF; Oklahoma State University; George Mason University; Monmouth College; Univ. of Alabama; Western Carolina University; Intelligent Biology; Joint Staff J39; Integral Mind

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address.

Summary Reports by NSI:

Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa®) Reports by NSI:

Discourse Analyses by NSI and the Media Ecology and Strategic Analysis (MESA) Group:

Modeling and Simulations by George Mason University, USAF/A-9, TRADOC G-27, and Integral Mind

Other Performer Reports by NSI, Joint Staff J-39, Intelligent Biology, and Western Carolina University

SMA held a speaker series to support the Korea Strategic Outcomes effort. Links to the recorded events, when available, are below: