Operationalising Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific
Speakers: Santoro, D. (Pacific Forum); Thomas-Noone, B. (University of Sydney); Townshend, A. (University of Sydney)
Date: 28 July 2020
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Ashley Townshend (University of Sydney), Dr. David Santoro (Pacific Forum), and Dr. Brendan Thomas-Noone (University of Sydney) as a part of its SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Series. Our speakers focused on the US-Australia Indo-Pacific deterrence dialogue, specifically with regards to China and conventional deterrence.
Dr. Townshend began by discussing how the US-Australia alliance has been optimized in recent years due to increasing competition with China at all levels of conflict on the spectrum. To effectively deter Chinese coercion, he argued, the US and Australia, along with their regional allies, need to forge cooperation across a multi-dimensional spectrum and fundamentally change how the alliance works to better combat this coercion. Deterrence is these countries’ shared interests; therefore, one country cannot assume responsibility for it alone. Dr. Townshend then spoke about the asymmetries in how the US and Australia approach political risk-taking and strategic escalation. These asymmetries, coupled with the asymmetry in Chinese coercion tactics, indicate that proactive action is necessary to effectively combat them. Dr. Townshend suggested criminalizing foreign interference and strengthening domestic resilience against these Chinese actions, as well as implementing a whole of government/society approach to condemning specific Chinese actions. As the conventional balance of power in the Indo-Pacific changes, it is unclear whether the US has the ability to unilaterally maintain the status quo; thus, a strategy of collective defense among regional allies is necessary to avoid a shift in conventional power towards China, according to Dr. Townshend.
Next, Dr. Santoro focused on conventional power at the higher end of the spectrum, specifically with regards to nuclear deterrence. He stated that the nuclear landscape is becoming increasingly dangerous as China, North Korea, and Russia view nuclear weapons as not just a tool in conflict, but for show of power as well. He also discussed how US allies are on the frontlines of the changing landscape in the Indo-Pacific, and they are the ones driving new deterrence demands and press for NATO-like commitments in Southeast Asia. In addition, there has been an increase in friction emerging between the US and its allies with regards to greater integration of US conventional capabilities and the dangers that increased integration poses due to its lowering of the nuclear threshold. Dr. Santoro stated that the status quo in the Indo-Pacific is being challenged by China’s actions and the changing state of the US and its allies, and fundamental changes need to happen in order for the balance of power and deterrence of coercion to remain effective.
To conclude, Dr. Thomas-Noone focused on conventional lethal integration and Australia’s view of nuclear deterrence. He stated that historically, Australia has always been a taker or receiver of nuclear deterrence rather than a provider. It has generally avoided conversations about nuclear deterrence directly related to the Indo-Pacific region as well. However, the status quo is now being challenged based on recent trends in US doctrine. The 2019 National Defense Strategy (NDS) indicates that allies will be asked to play greater roles in regional deterrence and conveys a need for US regional combatant commanders to incorporate allied defense in its pursuit of active missile defense. Australia, according to Dr. Thomas-Noone, does not want its allied force posture to be over-meshed with that of the US, nor does it want nuclear thresholds to be lowered or for there to be increased nuclear use in the region. So, it must work with the US to find a reasonable solution.
Speaker Session Recording
To access a recording of the session, please email Ms. Nicole Omundson (nomundson@nsiteam.com).
Dr. Santoro, Dr. Thomas-Noone, and Dr. Townshend’s publication, also entitled “Operationalising Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific,” can be found at https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/operationalising-deterrence-in-the-indo-pacific
David Santoro
Director and Senior Fellow for Nuclear Policy, Pacific Forum
David Santoro is director and senior fellow of nuclear policy programs at Pacific Forum. Hespecializes in strategic and deterrence issues, as well as nonproliferation and nuclear security,with a regional focus on the Asia Pacific and Europe. Santoro's current interests focus on crossregional deterrence and assurance, especially between Northeast Asia and Europe, and onnonproliferation and nuclear security in Southeast Asia. He also manages the Forum’s track 1.5/2nuclear policy dialogues. They include U.S.-China strategic nuclear dialogues; U.S.-Japan, U.S.-South Korea, and U.S.-Japan-South Korea extended deterrence dialogues; U.S.-Myanmarnonproliferation and nuclear security dialogues; and Asia-Pacific multilateral meetings onnonproliferation and nuclear security.Before joining Pacific Forum, Santoro worked on nuclear policy issues in France, Australia,Canada, and the United Kingdom. In spring 2010, he was a visiting research fellow at New YorkUniversity’s Center on International Cooperation, and in 2010-2011, he was a Stanton NuclearSecurity Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Santoro is coeditor,with Tanya Ogilvie-White, of Slaying the Nuclear Dragon (University of Georgia Press, 2012)and author of Treating Weapons Proliferation (Palgrave, 2010). His essays have been publishedin several monograph series and academic journals, such as Nonproliferation Review,Proliferation Papers, and Survival, and his op-eds have appeared in the Bangkok Post, Bulletinof the Atomic Scientists, Japan Times , PacNet, and Wall Street Journal, among others. Santoro holds degrees in languages, literature, history, and international relations from various universities, including a Ph.D. from Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia.
Brendan Thomas-Noone
Research Fellow, Foreign Policy and Defence Program, United States Studies Centre
Areas of expertise
- Australia-US relations
- US-Asia relations
- US foreign policy, defence and strategy
Brendan Thomas-Noone is a Research Fellow in the Foreign Policy and Defence Program at the United States Studies Centre where he works on national security and technology issues, US defence and foreign policy and Indo-Pacific security. A frequent media contributor, Brendan’s research has appeared in national and international newspapers including The Economist, the Australian Financial Review and The Washington Post.
Brendan was formerly a Research Associate in the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute where he worked on nuclear deterrence and policy in Asia, maritime security affairs and Australian defence policy. While at the Lowy Institute he was also an editor and contributor for The Interpreter. Over a five-month period, Brendan previously completed an internship with the Atlantic Council in Washington DC.
He holds a Bachelor of Arts with Honours and a Master of International Relations from the University of Melbourne. Brendan has also received a Master of Science in Global Politics from the London School of Economic and Political Science.
Ashley Townshend
Director, Foreign Policy and Defence, United States Studies Centre
Areas of expertise
- Australia-US relations
- US-Asia relations
- US foreign policy, defence and strategy
Ashley Townshend is Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. He works on international security and strategic affairs with a focus on the Indo-Pacific, including regional alliances and partnerships, maritime security, defence policy, and US, Chinese, and Australian strategy. Ashley is also the founding convenor and co-chair of the US-Australia Indo-Pacific Deterrence Dialogue and a lecturer in the Centre’s postgraduate program. A frequent contributor to the Australian and international media, Ashley’s analysis has appeared in outlets such as the Financial Times, CNN, the Australian Financial Review, Bloomberg, ABC, and Sky News.
Previously, Ashley has held research and teaching positions in the Alliance 21 Program at the United States Studies Centre, the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, the Center for Asia-Pacific Cooperation and Governance at Fudan University, the Warrior-Scholar Project at Yale University, the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, and Pacific Friends of the Global Fund. He completed his studies at the University of Oxford, Peking University, Sciences Po, Paris, and the University of Sydney where he received the University Medal.
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