China 2050: Preparing for an Ascendant China
Speakers: Scobell, A. (RAND); Cooper, C. (RAND)
Date: 15 September 2020
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series, entitled “China 2050: Preparing for an Ascendant China.” The speakers included Dr. Andrew Scobell (RAND) and Mr. Cortez Cooper (RAND). Dr. Scobell began his portion of the brief by discussing long-term competition between the US and China, more specifically focusing on China’s “grand strategy” and why studying it can be an effective method in analyzing long-term competition with China. He explained that China views threats from other states, particularly the US, as the biggest risks to its national security. Dr. Scobell then identified four successive grand strategies that China has developed over time—“revolution,” “recovery,” “building comprehensive national power (CNP),” and, in today’s age, “rejuvenation.” He elaborated that China is not only interested in developing its hard power, but its soft power as well. This is because China believes that an effective combination of hard and soft power will be beneficial in advancing its grand strategy. Next, Mr. Cooper discussed the importance of China’s grand strategy—more specifically, the organization of its subgoals in its various areas of national governance. He also presented a series of “alternative futures” that he, Dr. Scobell, and their report coauthors identified. These alternative futures are possible routes through which China’s strategies may adapt in the future and included “triumphant China,” “ascendant China,” “stagnant China,” and “imploding China.” Mr. Cooper stressed the importance of rebalancing and restructuring within China’s grand strategy but elaborated that there are not necessarily any signs of significant reform at this time. He then went on to explain how these possible alternative futures may impact China’s relationship with the US. Mr. Cooper expressed that his outlook was not necessarily optimistic in that regard and suggested that there would be significant collision between the US and China in the face of long-term competition.
Note: We are aware that many government IT providers have blocked access to YouTube from government machines during the pandemic in response to bandwidth limitations. We recommend viewing the recording on YouTube from a non-government computer or listening to the audio file (below), if you are in this position.
To access Dr. Scobell and Mr. Cooper’s relevant report, please visit https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2798.html?utm_campaign&utm_content=1596148680&utm_medium=rand_social&utm_source=facebook.
Andrew Scobell
Senior Political Scientist; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Washington Office
Education
Ph.D. in political science, Columbia University; M.A. in China studies, University of Washington; B.A. in history, Whitman College
Biography
Andrew Scobell is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, adjunct professor at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and member of the faculty at Pardee RAND Graduate School. He previously he served on the faculty of the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service and as director of the China certificate program at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. From 1999 until 2007, Scobell was a research professor in the Strategic Studies Institute at the U.S. Army War College and adjunct professor of political science at Dickinson College, both located in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.
His publications include At the Dawn of Belt and Road: China in the Developing World (RAND, 2018), PLA Influence on China's National Security Policymaking (Stanford University Press, 2015), China’s Search for Security (Columbia University Press, 2012), China’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March (Cambridge University Press, 2003). Scobell was born and raised in Hong Kong and regularly makes research trips to the region. He earned a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University.
Cortez A. Cooper III
Senior International/Defense Researcher; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School
Santa Monica Office
Education
M.A. in Asian Studies, University of Hawaii; B.A. in psychology, Davidson College
Biography
Cortez A. Cooper III is a senior international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and an affiliate faculty member at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He provides assessments of security challenges across political, military, economic, cultural, and informational arenas for a broad range of U.S. government clients.
Prior to joining RAND, Cooper was the director of the East Asia Studies Center for Hicks and Associates, Inc. He has also served in the U.S. Navy Executive Service as the senior analyst for the Joint Intelligence Center Pacific, U.S. Pacific Command. As the senior intelligence analyst and Asia regional specialist in the Pacific Theater, he advised Pacific Command leadership on trends and developments in the Command's area of responsibility. Before his Hawaii assignment, Cooper was a senior analyst with CENTRA Technology, Inc., specializing in Asia-Pacific political-military affairs.
Cooper's 20 years of military service included assignments as both an Army Signal Corps officer and a China Foreign Area officer. In addition to numerous military decorations, the Secretary of Defense awarded Cooper with the Exceptional Civilian Service Award in 2001. He holds an M.A. in Asian studies from the University of Hawaii.
Site-wide Search
Search all site content, including all NSI and SMA publications, SMA Speaker series, NSI Team member bios, services, portfolio projects, company info, and more.
