Toward an Inclusive & Balanced Regional Order: A New US Strategy in East Asia
Speaker: Swaine, M. (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft); Odell, R. (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft); Lee, J. (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)
Date: 10 February 2021
Speaker Session Summary
SMA hosted a speaker session, presented by Dr. Michael Swaine (Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft), Dr. Rachel Esplin Odell (Quincy Institute), and Ms. Jessica Lee (Quincy Institute) as a part of its SMA INDOPACOM Speaker Series.
Dr. Swaine began the presentation by summarizing his and his colleagues’ Quincy Institute report findings. He provided insights on key regional dynamics, the strengths and weaknesses of the US’s past East Asian strategy and ultimately an alternative East Asian strategy going forward. He stated that the US’s current strategy is too reliant on the use of the military as a diplomatic tool. Instead, he insisted that there are three regional trends that are occurring which should guide the US’s strategy. These include 1) a shift in regional power that favors China, 2) increasing tensions over regional disputes, and 3) transnational challenges to all countries. Dr. Swaine added that while China is increasing its military capabilities, it will not become a regional hegemonic power. Moreover, he stated that there must be a more realistic approach to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and that threats to political and social stability threaten all countries.
Next, Dr. Swaine stated that these insights led the research team to identify four areas in which a new strategy should be formed. First, the US must develop a defensive alliance that includes more diplomatic dialogue between the US, China, and US allies. Second, the US should gather regional support for the reformation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and regional technology organizations, which will balance the current power dynamic between China and other East Asian countries. Third, the US must rally support to fight against human rights violations so it can increase its image as a global protector of human rights. Lastly, the US must address its own domestic, societal, and economic issues, which are currently damaging its global image.
Dr. Odell began her portion of the brief by stating that China is not seeking global military dominance or trying to eject the US military from East Asia. China is instead trying to control disputed land and sea territory on its borders. However, she did acknowledge that there is some uncertainty over what China will do in the future with its growing military. There is a fear that China will continue to use its military power to coerce and bully smaller nations. According to Dr. Odell, the US should adopt a position of mutual denial with China by making it impossible for China to aggressively extend its borders. She stated that while it is unlikely that China will attack the US or its allies, the US should stop participating in joint exercises that could escalate into armed conflict with China. Dr. Odell concluded by stating that increasing political dialogue should deescalate conflict.
Ms. Lee then gave recommendations on how to deescalate conflict between North and South Korea. She stated that ultimately, the threat of conflict between the US and China comes in the form of proxy wars, which could include further conflict on the Korean Peninsula. If this conflict does occur, it could have massive global and regional ramifications due to North Korea’s extensive nuclear arsenal, which it built with mostly stolen technology and information. Ms. Lee also emphasized that an official peace treaty ending the Korean War is popular among US citizens; however, if there is to be a unification process to formally end the conflict between North and South Korea, then the US’s and China’s role as moderators will be crucial. Ms. Lee concluded the group’s presentation by emphasizing that the US government needs to rethink its short-term and long-term goals for the Korean Peninsula.
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Rachel Esplin Odell
Research Fellow
EXPERTISE
China, Maritime Security, Indo Pacific
BIO
Rachel Esplin Odell is a Research Fellow in the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute and an expert in U.S. strategy toward Asia, Chinese foreign policy, and maritime disputes. She was an International Security Fellow in the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School from 2019 to 2020. She received her PhD in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where her dissertation studied the politics of how countries interpret the international law of the sea. Odell previously worked as a Research Analyst in the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co-authoring several policy reports and organizing numerous public forums, government briefings, and Track II workshops. She has also served in the China Affairs bureau of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
Odell’s writings have appeared in the New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, War on the Rocks, The National Interest, and The Diplomat, among other publications. She has received fellowships from the National Science Foundation, the Smith Richardson Foundation, the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies at Waseda University, and MIT’s Center for International Studies. Her research on the relationship between maritime power and international law received the Alexander George Award from the Foreign Policy Analysis Section of the International Studies Association. She holds an AB summa cum laude in East Asian Studies with a secondary field in Government from Harvard University and has advanced proficiency in Mandarin Chinese and Spanish.
Jessica J. Lee
Senior Research Fellow, East Asia Program
EXPERTISE
Korean Peninsula, Japan, Alliances and Strategy in East Asia
PROGRAMS
East Asia
BIO
Jessica J. Lee is a Senior Research Fellow in the East Asia Program at the Quincy Institute. Her research focuses on U.S. foreign policy toward the Asia-Pacific region, with an emphasis on alliances and North Korea.
Previously, Jessica led the Council of Korean Americans (CKA), a national leadership organization for Americans of Korean descent. Prior to CKA, Jessica was a Resident Fellow at the Pacific Forum in Honolulu. Previously, Jessica was a senior manager at The Asia Group, LLC, a strategy and capital advisory firm. She began her career on Capitol Hill, first as a professional staff member handling the Asia region for the chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, and then as a senior legislative assistant on international security and trade for a member of Congress on the Ways and Means Committee.
Jessica’s analysis has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Foreign Policy, The National Interest, USA Today, the Washington Times, and The Nation. Jessica serves on the board of International Student Conferences, Inc., a U.S. nonprofit that supports cultural exchange between students from the United States, South Korea, Japan, and China. She is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of CKA. Jessica holds a B.A. in Political Science from Wellesley College and an A.M. in Regional Studies-East Asia from Harvard University.
Michael D. Swaine
Director, East Asia Program
EXPERTISE
East Asia, China
BIO
Michael D. Swaine, director of QI’s East Asia program, is one of the most prominent American scholars of Chinese security studies. He comes to QI from Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he worked for nearly twenty years as a senior fellow specializing in Chinese defense and foreign policy, U.S.-China relations, and East Asian international relations. Swaine served as a senior policy analyst at the RAND Corporation.
Swaine has authored and edited more than a dozen books and monographs, including Remaining Aligned on the Challenges Facing Taiwan (with Ryo Sahashi; 2019), Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Strategic Net Assessment (with Nicholas Eberstadt et al; 2015) and many journal articles and book chapters.
Swaine is directing, along with Iain Johnston of Harvard University, a multi-year crisis prevention project with Chinese partners. He also advises the U.S. government on Asian security issues.
Swaine received his doctorate in government from Harvard University and his bachelor’s degree from George Washington University.
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