SMA SEEK Results: Expanding US Nuclear Capability & Pessimism About Nuclear Use in the Next 15 Years

‍Author: Popp, G. (NSI); Astorino-Courtois, A. (NSI); Bragg, B. (NSI)

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In August 2021, many of you participated in SMA’s inaugural Survey for Eliciting Expert Knowledge (SEEK) outreach. SEEK is SMA’s new, online capability for tapping into the collective knowledge, experience, and wisdom of our 5000+ person community of interest to generate crowdsourced insights on questions of interest. We conducted two surveys as part of this inaugural SEEK—one on deterrence and strategic stability, and a second on perceptions of threats and opportunities among US competitors. Perhaps surprisingly, we found:

• An overwhelming majority of respondents (79%) believe that some level of expansion of US nuclear force capability is necessary to maintain strategic stability among the US, Russia, and China into the future.
• 38% of respondents believe that the likelihood of US-China or US-Russia conflict with serious consideration of nuclear use falls within the range of quite possible to highly likely over the next 15 years.
• 36% of respondents believe that the likelihood of US vs. regional state conflict with serious consideration of nuclear use falls within the range of quite possible to highly likely over the next 15 years.brag