Chinese Strategic Deterrence Frameworks

January 2024 No Comments

Author: Dr. James Sundquist (Yale University) Publication Preview China does not have an overarching deterrence framework. However, it is possible to identify the primary objects of Chinese deterrence and describe the Chinese playbook. China’s core strategic aims consist of deterring 1) a nuclear attack; 2) conventional, space, and cyber-attacks; and 3) outside efforts to encourage […]

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Great Power Economic Competition, the PRC Economic Challenge, and the Prospects of De-Dollarization

January 2024 No Comments

Speaker: Dr. Brandon Kirk Williams (LLNL) Date: 1 February 2024 Speaker Session Summary China aims to de-dollarize the world economy, utilizing BRICS member states—namely Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—as a beachhead in the global economic system. According to Dr. Williams, there are two other important strategies employed […]

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NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis, Drivers of a Pervasive Competition

January 2024 No Comments

Author: NATO Allied Command Transformation Publication Preview The Strategic Foresight Analysis 2023 (SFA23) provides a shared understanding of the EvolvingSecurity Environment to 2043, thus establishing the context for Allied futures thinking. Based on thiscontext, the Future Operating Environment 2024 (FOE24) will address the military problem sets forAllied Warfare Development. FOE24 will also serve as a […]

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AI-Driven Expert-Validated Threat and Foreign Influence Assessments

January 2024 No Comments

Speaker: Ms. Jacki Davenport (Seerist) Date: 25 January 2024 Speaker Session Summary Seerist developed an artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled threat intelligence platform that utilizes information from open-source resources to identify, monitor, and track global threats. Alongside Deloitte, Seerist also developed the Foreign Influence Risk Index (FIRI), which examines the dynamics of great power competition. Seerist’s AI-enabled […]

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Deterrence Effects of Policing Programs

January 2024 No Comments

Author: Dr. Kathleen Kiernan (NEC National Security Systems (NSS)) Publication Preview While there are parallels, the environment in which deterrence occurs for the U.S. Military is vastly different in context than for domestic or international law enforcement. Police can reduce opportunities for crime by intervening before they arise, and deterrence is an even more efficient […]

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Considering How and Why Deterrence Works in Public Health

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Author: Dr. Kristina Talbert-Slagle (Yale University) Publication Preview Public health experts often approach “deterrence”—or prevention of behaviors and/or decisions that adversely affect health outcomes—by considering the many factors that influence health behaviors and decision-making. These factors, often called “health determinants,” can be divided into three levels: micro- (individual), meso- (social/community), and macro- (systems). Interventions to […]

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Deterrence and Space Warfare

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Author: Dr. John Klein (Delta Solutions & Strategies, LCC) Publication Preview The strategy of space warfare is a subset of general warfare strategy; therefore, the ideas of deterrence, compellence, and dissuasion have applicability in the space domain. Even though deterrence has a legitimate role in future space strategy, it is not the panacea for preventing […]

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The Russian Way of Deterrence: Strategic Culture, Coercion, and War

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Speaker: Professor Dmitry (Dima) Adamsky (School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University) Date: 23 January 2024 Speaker Session Summary Russia entered the war in Ukraine with a strategic approach to deterrence, intending to: 1) deter direct involvement by adversaries, 2) paralyze NATO’s assertiveness in the region, and 3) secure the surrender of Kiev. […]

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Report on Building US Responses to Russia’s Threats to use Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons – A Game Theoretic Analysis of Brinkmanship

January 2024 No Comments

Speaker: Krista S. Langeland (Deputy Lead, RAND Space Enterprise Initiative; Senior Physical Scientist); Mr. Clinton Reach (RAND) Date: 16 January 2024 Speaker Session Summary Vladimir Putin expected a quick Russian victory after ordering the invasion of Ukraine. However, the war has prolonged, and there is now a possibility that Ukraine might achieve a military victory. […]

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Constructing Killwebs for Effects Based Targeting in Multi-Domain Operations

January 2024 No Comments

Speaker: COL Brian Davis (Northeast Asia Regional Fusion Cell, US Forces Korea) Date: 9 January 2024 Speaker Session Summary A kill web is defined as a network map of a collection of kill chains. Colonel (COL) Davis used the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) as a case study to illustrate how a kill web […]

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