Regional and Population Dynamics in the Central Region
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In 2019, at the request of the United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), SMA initiated a study to understand the strategic implications of destabilizing population dynamics within the Central Region. SMA considered drivers of instability in the region to include long-term internally displaced persons and refugees, spread of radical ideologies and extremism, great power competition, disruptive non-state actors, and the potential for “black swan” scenarios (POCs: COL Andrew DeJesse). 

Overarching Issue: Great power interests converge in the Central Region, making it strategically important and, thus, a potential site of conflict and miscalculation in the pursuit of countervailing US, Russian, and Chinese interests. The region suffers from added drivers of instability that could intensify this competition or present opportunities for greater cooperation, including: 

Performers:

NSI, Univ. of MD ICONS, CART, MESA, Intelligent Biology, George Mason University, TRADOC G-2, Monmouth College, Kutztown University, Oklahoma State University, University of British Columbia, University of Akron, University of Maryland, University of Albany SUNY, Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning (CAOCL)), Western Carolina University, Creighton University, University of Nebraska Omaha

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address

Levant & Gulf Destabilizing Events (Questions A1-9)

State-Level Instability in the Gulf and the Levant – This report by NSI integrates the following individual reports:



IDPs, Refugees & the Spread of Radical Ideologies (Questions B1-5)

Radicalization – This report by NSI, integrates the following individual reports:

Disruptive Non-state Actors & Great Power Competition (Question B6-11)

Great Power Competition – This report by NSI, integrates the following individual reports:

Black Swan Scenarios (Questions B12-15)

Black Swan Scenarios – This report by NSI, integrates the following individual reports:

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address.

SMA held a speaker series to support the CENTCOM effort. Approximately 850 audience members dialed into the 14 CENTCOM speaker events. Links to the recorded events, when available, are below: