Hedged Bets or Shared Norms? Sino-Russian Great Power Relations and Public Opinion

July 2019 No Comments

“Hedged Bets or Shared Norms? Sino-Russian Great Power Relations and Public Opinion“

Speakers: Gregory, E. J. (US Army); Sherlock, T. (United States Military Academy at West Point)

Date: 24 July 2019

Speaker Session Preview

SMA hosted a speaker session presented by Dr. Thomas Sherlock (United States Military Academy at West Point) and Col E. John Gregory (US Army) as a part of its SMA Future of Global Competition and Conflict Speaker Series. In their research, Col Gregory and Dr. Sherlock examined the prospects for the future of the China-Russia relationship by surveying Chinese and Russian youths. They also aimed to determine whether common opinions are a result of political views or merely hedging behaviors. Col Gregory discussed his conclusions regarding public opinion among Chinese youths, namely that the “formation of preferences on foreign policy in Chinese society is highly influenced by the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) control of information channels and aggressive social discourse formation mechanisms.” Moreover, although very critical of US foreign policy decisions and many domestic aspects of the US, elite Chinese students generally hold an idealistic view of the US. On the other hand, Chinese elite youth are generally ambivalent and often completely uninterested in Russian culture. Dr. Sherlock then discussed his conclusions regarding public opinion among Russian youths, namely that the “formation in Russian society of preferences on foreign policy enjoys an important measure of autonomy from manipulation by the regime.” Furthermore, aggressive, expansionist nationalism is not a salient feature of contemporary Russian political culture or national identity, particularly among youths. Perceptions of external threat and the desire for great power status are also less important among Russian youths than concerns over mounting domestic problems. Young Russians are also wary of close cooperation with China, and participants were more interested in rapprochement with the West, particularly the US. After examining the results of both their Russia and China studies, Dr. Sherlock and Col Gregory offered a few final conclusions. They stated that below the level of leadership, China and Russia “share few enduring political values that would contribute to a future alliance akin to the US Treaty Alliance Structure.” Furthermore, despite the fact that Chinese youth are more readily influenced by the CCP’s discourse formation machine, “they still seem to imagine that a great power looks something like America, which is a key finding for American policy makers debating what emphasis to put on engagement and how to engage with China.”