China and the Global South: Big Ambitions, Big Challenges

Speaker: Michael Schuman (Atlantic Council)

Date: 27 February 2024

Speaker Session Summary

China’s economic slowdown coupled with its ambition to continuously compete with the US both economically and politically is compelling Beijing to intensify its efforts to increase political influence in the Global South. Mr. Schuman, who authored an article on why China will struggle to win over the Global South and how India can aid the US in countering China’s efforts, suggested that China’s ultimate geopolitical goal is to reshape the current political world order. Chinese President, Xi Jinping, may perceive progress toward this objective as some state leaders in the Global South express praise for China to curry political favor and attract further Chinese investments or aid. Because of these pro-Chinese statements and the success of certain Chinese industries in the region, such as its automobile industry, Xi believes that many countries in the Global South will merely fall-in behind China’s political leadership. However, there are several reasons why this is unlikely.

Mr. Schuman highlighted that most countries in the Global South do not want to align themselves with China in opposition to the US. Instead, they seek to pursue economic opportunities with both economic giants. Additionally, despite China’s strong economic gains in the Global South, India may become a formidable regional economic competitor to China in the future. India’s potential rise as an economic competitor poses political challenges for China’s objectives, as India does not consider itself a US adversary. Mr. Schuman suggests that the US should engage in dialogue with countries in the Global South, envisioning a future in which the region wields greater political and economic influence by forming partnerships with the US. He argues that the US can position itself as a genuine partner to many states in the region while portraying China as a predatory actor.

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Affiliated report: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/why-china-wont-win-the-global-south/

Michael Schuman is a nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub and an author and journalist with more than 25 years of experience in Asia. Currently a contributing writer to The Atlantic, he was previously a foreign correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and Time magazine. His most recent book is Superpower Interrupted: The Chinese History of the World. His two previous books are Confucius and the World He Created and The Miracle: The Epic Story of Asia’s Quest for Wealth. His work has also appeared in the New York Times, Businessweek, and Bloomberg Opinion. He is based in Beijing, China.