21st Century Strategic Deterrence Frameworks (SDF)
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At the request of the Deputy Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, SMA initiated a study to evaluate current deterrence frameworks, their shortfalls in today’s environment, and potential alternative deterrence constructs to address the growing number of challenges to deterrence. These challenges include but are not limited to:

Project Overview

The project plan breaks the study into four lines of effort (LOEs):

  1. identify gaps or shortfalls in existing deterrence theories;
  2. propose revised concepts that address these shortfalls;
  3. update the Deterrence Analysis and Planning Support Environment (DAPSE) model to be relevant for today’s multipolar deterrence problem set; and
  4. explore how to enhance integrated deterrence in the European theater.

Figure 1 Project Plan Updated July 2024 In the project plan outlined above, each LOE begins with a series of research efforts followed by a culminating event. LOEs 1 and 2 were brought together in a three-day net assessment event. LOE 3 applied DAPSE to a U.S. Forces Korea use case, which was briefed in April 2024.

The following is the list of reports completed in support of this effort. Reports and events can be accessed via the links provided.

*Reports without a link can be requested by emailing mariah.c.yager.ctr@mail.mil from a .mil or .gov email address or visit the SMA NIPR Inteldocs site (CAC-enabled).

LOE 1: Identifying Gaps by NSI

LOE 2: Toward Filling Gaps by NSI

LOE 3: Enhance Deterrence Planning by NSI

LOE 4: Integrated Deterrence by, with, and through Allies and Partners by NSI

Invited Perspectives

SMA held a speaker series to support the SDF effort. Links to the recorded events, when available, are below: