The Future of US-Russian Relations

Speaker: Thomas Graham (Council on Foreign Relations)

Date: 22 February 2024

Speaker Session Summary

Even in the event of a military defeat suffered by Russia at the hands of Ukraine, it will continue to pose a formidable adversary to the US for the foreseeable future. Despite this adversarial stance, there will also be opportunities for collaboration between the US and Russia, as suggested by Mr. Graham in his book, Getting Russia Right. He asserts that the US must be prepared for Russia to persist as an authoritarian, expansionist state, but economically and technologically weak, regardless of the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, the likelihood of a collapse in Russia, despite some separatist movements in its remote regions, remains low. This is due in part to the fact that most Russians prefer not to live in a fully democratic society, and because of Russia’s ethnic homogeneity. The country is largely held together by patriotic sentiment, xenophobia, and robust economic logistical chains. 

While Russia will remain a significant adversary to the US in the near future, there are transnational threats, such as global warming, that both countries can collaborate to mitigate. Furthermore, a Russian state collapse would jeopardize regional security, allowing China to exploit Russia’s abundant natural resources, and potentially compromise Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Mr. Graham suggests that Russia’s aggressive actions are driving European countries closer together in opposition; however, a more united Europe may allow Russia to engage with Europe more directly in the future, rather than alongside the US. Additionally, the US and Arctic states will be compelled to cooperate more closely with Russia in the future due to Russia’s extensive Arctic coastline, which will become increasingly navigable as global warming continues. Mr. Graham concludes by expressing hope that while healthy competition between Russia and the US under Putin’s regime seems unlikely, there is potential for collaboration and competition in a more balanced manner within the next two decades. 

Speaker Session Recording

Briefing Materials

Biography: Thomas Graham is a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on Russian/Eurasian affairs and US-Russian relations.  He is also a research scholar at the MacMillan Center at Yale University, where he teaches courses on US-Russian relations and Russian foreign policy.   He was Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia on the US National Security Council staff 2004-2007 and Director for Russian Affairs 2002-2004 on that staff.  Earlier, he was a senior associate in the Russia/Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a US diplomat, who served two tours of duty in Moscow, where he worked on political affairs.  He also served as a managing director at Kissinger Associates, Inc., an international business consulting firm, 2008-2019. His new book, Getting Russia Right, is available from Polity.